Member Info for longtermthinker

Only fifty odd trades this morning and they are struggling to make a market. Nobody wants to sell, nobody wants to buy. This will be the new norm until FID, or at least until there is a whisper of the International Bank doing the rounds for funding, that’s if they haven’t secured promises already 🤔.

Or FID is ready to happen and the likes of Odey start to off some of their holding in anticipation of the 53p placee shares. As we are aware, someone always knows before the event, although Navitas do seem to keep a tight lid on things.

Who’d what to be out over the weekend eh!

LTT

Blue,

I do get what your are saying, how much is Navitas and PMO/Harbour getting us into this position.

However, I imagine Sam could have walked away at a couple of points over the years , who would have blamed him, selling the whole shooting match he could have done very nicely out of the sale. Get that millstone from around his neck and spend more time with Mrs Moody and the kids in the Caribbean, not traipsing them down to the Falklands for a holiday!

He could maybe have sold out to Navitas, kept a presence on their board for a few years to ease FIG into the idea. A golden handshake as I imagine young Phipps got when RKH took over Desire. But he didn't, so credit where credit is due, nobody is prefect and it's easy to give the driver directions when you are sat in the back seat oblivious to the overheating engine or that the low fuel warning light is on.

By the way, you are missing nothing from Divi's green boxes, just the usual. I'm going to join you as it's just tiring. Although I might not need to, as he ended his last message with "Have a great day, speak to you next year , ATB". I wonder how long that will last.

LTT

Divi,

nobody is criticising the RNS because we are in a completely different world now.

Then the share price was 15p, now were are at 75p+ on the cusp of FID. Sam is almost getting this over the line, Desire gone; FOGL gone; Argos hmmmmmm gone but maybe has a chance of a come back; PMO gone; Borders hanging on waiting for Navitas to FID. Plus many more O&G minnows that haven't survived during this past decade.

So if Sam and Will get a nice wad of options, good on them, without Sam, I wouldn't be sitting pretty on a nice profit, with FID about to be announced and then on track to first oil in 2028.

Of course Navitas are in the driving seat, but without Sam's gritted determination and resolve we would be around anymore and the dream would be over for us and the Falkland Islanders. IMHO

LTT

Hi Topdrive,

Despite my frustrations and my "Why aren't we there yet Dad?" rhetoric, I have to agree, Sam even went as far as to say, not to panic if there is no FID by the end of October, as Navitas have repeatedly said FID by the end of this year.

So although I hope for it sooner, I am resided to the facts that Navitas are driving the bus, and if they want to pump the breaks a little, it's their choice and they will have their reasons.

One thing we can be sure of is that they are still moving forward as pointed out by Mogger recently with the Temporary Dock planning application and showing it being on track with a link to the Final Report by Hatch dated May 2025. I just love it when a plan starts coming together!

So the bottom line is, it will happen when Navitas are good and ready and it should be by the end of 2025. What a fabulous start to the New Year that would be.

LTT

Divi,

the II's will be waiting until FID, why take the risk of FID being pushed back into Q1 2026.

Odey will no doubt have weighed in to the Placing, so it would make sense for them to offload the shares or some similiar entity, they bought at a much lower price, knowing they will be replaced by the 53p Placing shares, plus they have a back up of the 80p warrants in the future. That's what I would do if I was pretty certain FID was going to happen sooner rather than later.

However, If I was an II waiting on the sidelines, I'd be keeping my powder dry to jump in on a sure thing, not before. IMHO....wait and see!

;-)

LTT

Chief Executive Officer Samuel Moody says: "This has been a transformative period for Rockhopper and the last few months have seen an acceleration of progress towards final investment decision. A financing plan is in place for which we have secured our base equity requirement and the potential value to all stakeholders is independently confirmed."

So why would they take their foot off the gas now and wait until December to FID and risk it getting pushed back into Q1 2026?

It doesn't make sense to me.

Why get RKH to raise cash in August and Sept, Navitas do their own fund raise in September, only to twiddle their collective thumbs for 3+ months? A 3 month wait pushes back first oil by 3 months, and with possible delays it could be 6 months, why wait?

Well that question will be answered soon enough once we get to the 31st of October.

LTT

Overts,

I'd like to imagine that Fih Group will pick up some of the construction contracts. I went to their recent AGM and I asked if they had been in discussions with Navitas and they said they had been, also they mentioned they were pitching the idea of a "Ramp to Rig" service. But, everything is waiting for FID, as they had been here before with promises from PMO, (although nowhere near at this advanced stage, that's my opinion, not from the board). They run a business that makes a profit and pays a dividend, that is stable, although FID could effect every part of their business to the positive.

As well as construction they run retail, imports, travel and insurance among other things, also they have a lot of land near the Temporary Dock that could be utilized, as well as lots of land in and around Stanley with planning approval. This is not a pitch by the way, I am in for FID, the idea being, like the gold rush days, the real winners were the folk that sold the tents, food, pots and pans. Fih Group have got it pretty much sown up on that front.

However, saying all the above, they have had a lot of issues with the construction side of the business and are only just turning things around, also they are a highly illiquid stock, if you buy in, the spread will mean you are already underwater to the tune of 8-10%+ or more and then trying to sell in any volume could take it down even more. Be warned.

I am in for FID and the hope of a share price rise I can sell into or maybe a buy-out. We shall see though.

Sorry for the off topic.

LTT

Thanks for that, it's interesting to get the examples. So we are looking at possibly more analysts following RKH post FID, some form of rerating to reflect the reclassification of resources due to lower risks ahead, although this can be offset by dilution and the oil price. However we cannot overlook the stable fiscal regime the Falklands are setting up and the opening of a new basin.

It's all getting very exciting.

Either way, I wouldn't want to be short, hoping for the share price to drop at FID, any selling by II's could be offset by the buying of PI and II as the news hits the media big time, which could increase the share price or at the very least cause it to tread water whilst further news of the FPSO, FIG, Hotel construction starting, possible partner coming onboard starts to be announced. If a partner comes onboard at FID, well who knows what could happen, I don't that's for sure.

Thanks a lot though, most appreciated.

LTT

By the way, there is an Upstream article about todays results, nothing to add, but good to see us in the press.

Also I have a question, as the likes of Divi and Happy, along with many others seem to think FID is prices in.

Has anyone got any examples of where a company has FID'd a project and the company has been rerated by brokers to reflect the change in resources? I know I could use AI, but there are so many variables and I don't have the paid version that goes more in depth. I know you should take brokers targets with a pinch of salt, a good pinch in most cases, however, there must be some change as resources move from pre-FID to post-FID. Pre-FID still has a great deal of risks of not happening or delays, but Post-FID shows a path to first oil, of course their a still risks, but the major risk of having funds to actually get to first oil is out of the way, surely that adds value!

I'd be interested to know, if anyone can spare the time to share their insights.

LTT

Seems like they are keeping everything quiet now, not even a mention of the Tax issues that need to be sorted out prior to the International Bank signing off on the $1B. Seems to me they will tie everything off in one go, most likely to minimise the sabre rattling from Argentina.

Lets face it, if the were to announce the Tax regime and that RKH have there Tax issues sorted; then the Bank is doing the rounds to raise the cash, it would give Argentina fuel to put on the fire, however, if they just announce everything in one go, once everything is signed off, "Navitas and partners are proud to announce that FID has been reached on the next big thing". That would be it, done and dusted, Argentina would rant and rave, but not a lot else, then the real work begins.

I wonder if any Navitas bods, or RKH bods are heading down to the Falklands in October/November for sign off? It would be a monumental day to say the least, seems a pity for the Falkland Islands Governor to get out his rubber stamp on his own, in his Governors House and say,

"Well, that's that, the Falklands are now on a path to riches beyond the dreams of avarice! Life on the Islands will never be the same again, for good and for bad."

Then silence, and tumbleweed rolls past in the background!

LTT

Croft,

I think many folk thought the same about RKH and Sea Lion! We are on almost 15 years since discovery and we still haven’t FID’d and are possibly 3+ years away from first oil. Desire was part of the first campaign in 1998!

Who knows how things will look in 10 years from now! At least with RKH and Navitas there is a line of sight.

LTT

ZYX098,

I see Borders being bought out after FID, if anyone offered anything north or 15p-20p a share, the largest share holders would snap their hands off. Those big holders would take the offer as they will not wait around longer to secure a partner whom will take the lions share and wait until possibly 2029 before getting a drill and, seeing what Navitas and RKH have been through possibly mid next decade before production. I know that working with FIG will be simpler the 2nd time around, with cost savings along the way, but still there is a ton of stuff that needs doing to get a FDP and an EIS up to speed.

Borders need someone like Delek to farm-in, with the cash to go for it, but as mentioned they will take a hefty stake, so why not just buy them out and then call all the shots. IMHO

LTT

I see the upgraded Temporary Dock plans have power and lamp posts, so it can work around the clock, day and night. Makes sense really as once they FID, they will have to work around the clock if they want to keep on track for first oil early 2028.

Roll on FID.

LTT

Sorry I forgot to say many thanks again Mogger 👍

LTT

With the Dock upgrade and Heliport earmarked for October, and the Hotel to kick off in November, anyone would think they might just go for FID sooner rather than later 🤔

LTT

This is like one of those 3D viewing puzzles, where you look and look and you just can't see the picture, you cannot bring it into focus.

Then once your eyes have adjusted and you get the right angle and the correct distance it becomes clear.

Navitas has been building up the picture over the past few years, but nobody has been seeing the bigger picture clearly. There has been hiring and contracts and names of the FPSO doing the rounds, even a rig or two have been mentioned, but nothing concrete. If ever their was a sign that this might just possibly go ahead, this has to be one of the clearest to date. As Croft says;

"Applicant is Navitas Petroleum Development & Production Limited — not FIG Ports, not Tourism, not local fisheries. That signals the scope and who’s footing the bill."

Navitas are putting down roots, into the bedrock no less!

Still, it's not in the bag, until it's in the bag, but by heck we must be getting close!

LTT

Is someone trying to keep this in the 70-75p range, there has been a lot of 100 share trades on the sell side and the buy side. Bots just having a laugh!

LTT

For the record, I wasn't implying that Navitas would release their Q3 report this Sunday, it was just that last year they released Q3 on the 30/09/2024, however the previous 2 years before that, they have been on the 24th and 26th of November in 2023 and 2022.

So it's anyones guess as to the whys, the whens and the reasons.

Have a good weekend everyone, we will be into October next week, my birthday month, I know what I would like for my birthday! LOL

LTT

I think it’s the village council mentality I’m afraid. They believe it’s due and cannot get their heads around that it isn’t, it was written down, on paper from when PMO came onboard, so it must be true!

LTT

I totally agree JEBR, I have seen mention a few times the number $25m for decomm, so that is what, I imagine the Conditional placing was all about, covering a future, unquantifiable decomm cost that may raise its head after FID but prior to first oil. Imagine how that would have affected the share price 1 year after FID if RKH had to come cap in hand for more cash!

By the way, do you know when the next and probably the last Exco meeting is being held or has it happened 🤔?

Also do you think we will get a Q3 Navitas Financial Report this Sunday?

I have to be honest, I just cannot imagine what will happen when Navitas announce FID, will there be some inclination or will they just announce and that’s that! 😳

Interesting times are ahead, hopefully this year, how many times have we said that LOL.

LTT