I don’t know but I’d imagine Italy have either won an ICSID ruling or have had a case against them ruled in their favor at some point, so you can’t have your bread buttered on both side!
If the annulment is thrown out then I’d expect the lawyers to be pretty quick going after assets that will hurt Italy if they refuse to pay up in a timely manner, they will have been earmarking them no doubt whilst we are waiting for Italys annulment window to close.
LTT
Thanks Leeds5,
That makes it very clear, must have missed your post on the 2nd Sept.
Cheers LTT
I presume that they have to apply for the annulment with a concrete reason, they can’t just say we want this annulled because we don’t agree, they must have to have some proof to start the process starts! Otherwise every case would get annulled to delay the inevitable.
But of course I don’t know how these things work. As for Navitas not being a good fit for RKH because there website is not up to date, they seem to be more active on Facebook.
LTT
Anth72, I like your thinking but can’t see someone paying more than 10p a share never mind £1! Anyone taking on Borders had got to get a high spec rig down there, they have months of drilling to do appraisals and then even if they can be used for production you then need an FPSO and all the wellheads etc. what’s that going to cost? $500m, $1B?
We may get an offer of someone taking on the cost of development and shareholders get a 10% production royalty ( didn’t Argos have a similar deal way back when?) but that will be all IMHO.
But I do hope I am wrong as 50p or £1 one my meagre holding would be happily received indeed.
Good luck to us all.
LTT
Have to agree Hoppa, they are putting their money where their mouth is in the hiring of Ian Ramsay with all his contacts, they haven’t done that for fun IMHO
LTT
I do hope Navitas and RKH pull their finger out and get a rig contract singed in sooner rather than later. The article on Oilprice says currently offshore rigs are commanding $400K a day (although presume that is for ultra deep water rigs) and they are talking up $500k rigs on the horizon.
However in the same breath they are talking about heading into a recession and the demand destruction it will cause! So rigs are heading up and will no doubt head back down as the oil industry tightens its belt yet again, same pattern of boom and bust. All the more reason to get this party started! IMHO
Come on FIG, what are you waiting on?
LTT
Plus they will need to dilute again even if they extend the licenses for another year! I just cannot work out what is happening with Borders!
LTT
Hi Much, let’s hope so. A conservative £125m award is worth approx 21p per share working on 588m shares in issue. I have worked on £125m imagining RKH sell the award to a third party for recovery thus getting the money sooner. Of course we can afford to wait and recoup the whole amount, but depends if Navitas doesn’t spare the whip!
So 21p without any value added for SL and the wider acreage, or the fact Navitas are about to be signed in any day AND have hired Ian Ramsay with all his expertise and connections to get cracking. I mean how much has been spent on SL and the wider acreage $700m ? $1B ? And we still have 35% and a partner with a will to get this thing over the line. That has got to be worth 10p on the share price at a minimum.
One day value will out and we will look back on this time with a smug feeling knowing we were right! IMHO
LTT
And no doubt Borders will have to come cap in hand to shareholders again as I can’t imagine FIG will extend the licence’s if Borders runs out of money in mid 2023!
Come on someone, buy Borders already!
LTT
Hi Decolady,
all of RKH northern acreage is split 65% Navitas and 35% RKH, all the Southern acreage is still 100% RKH.
I have to say I was a little surprised about that, thought Navitas would have gone for the whole shooting match but they didn't. Check the link.
rockhopperexploration.co.uk/operations/overview/#
LTT
I think many are just cashing in the extra shares they bought at 7p and why not, while things are still in flux, with energy bill heading sky high ( just got an email from my energy company asking to up my debit amount by 150%), a recession in the way and the UK currently rudder less. Who can blame them.
Even so we should get news soon that Harbour are out and Navitas are in. Then we might get some pointers as to what Ian Ramsay is up to, they have not hired him to sit twiddling his thumbs I imagine!
LTT
But that’s just it Page, when Harbour walked away, all the benefit disappeared with them. RKH paid tax on the 240m they received and the carry is going to be irrecoverable as how can you pay tax on something you never received?
So RKH got the Navitas farm-in giving all the worked up development plan and the money RKH spent out of that 240m on appraisal and exploration drilling for nothing! Navitas have not paid RKH a penny for their 65% of the acreage.
Anyway I do hope you guys are right and Borders get a farm-in partner who will give them a couple of 100m’s or someone buys them out lock stock.
Thanks again for your thoughts, plenty to think about.
Regards LTT
Thanks for your thoughts, I understand Borders has a great discovery, but with RKH getting nothing in return for funding development that they have to pay back, so basically all the money spent on drilling and appraisal, seismic, 3D interpretation was valued at 0, Navitas came along and got it for nothing. How are Borders going to broker a better deal with time running out?
If they want to extend the licenses will they had to raise funds again?
Just trying to get my head around the recent rise in the share price. Something does seem to be afoot, but cannot think what at the minute.
A puzzled
LTT
how Borders can be valued/bought out for 25p to 50p never mind £1?
RKH had 100% of their 400m barrel plus appraise oil find and yet they could only get Navitas who in return for 65% offer to fund them through FID and most of the costs to first oil which they will have to pay back. They are currently at 14p per share will £150m plus due from Italy. Of course that is not a certainty hence the discount, but even with that cash banked they will only be valued at 25p.
So how can Borders get to the dizzy heights mentioned here with no partner, very limited cash and a licence due to run out at the end of December this year?
Don’t get me wrong, I would be over the moon if this got taken out for 25p as I am a shareholders but cannot see where said partner would come from offering a better deal than RKH got from Navitas, and not just a slightly better deal but a deal of many magnitudes bigger.
Many thanks
LTT
Hi Port,
I can’t see why they would need the new port up and running to support SL, they ran and exploration campaign and then an appraisal campaign without it so can’t see that being an issue. If anything it should incentives FIG to support RKH and Navitas to get a move on and get SL up and running, thus bringing in a revenue stream to pay for it.
LTT
Hi Bloo, it means that RKH can’t give say half the cash to investors as a special dividend, it also might be a poison pill for anyone wanting to take over RKH if they are still undervalued after they receive the cash, thus stopping them from snapping up the company and stripping out the cash. Think someone tried the tactic a few years ago when PMO Farmin in and we were awash with cash!
LTT
Morning, well we didn’t expect them to take the full 120 days to decide so as we sit here on the deadline day, it’s pretty much a cert that should they extended with the extra 60days taking us into October, then they will take it to the wire then also!
So be honest I can’t understand why they would not want this out of the way now, let the news drop as the old government is on its way out. Why wait and have the new government paying the bill!
LTT
“ Santos Energy has announced the final investment decision on the Pikka oil project in Alaska, which the Australian company expects to produce 80,000 bpd beginning in 2026.
The first phase of the development at the North Slope deposit will cost $2.6 billion, of which Santos’ share would be $1.3 billion, the company also said. The Australian energy major is partnering with Spain’s Repsol on the project.”
So large projects are getting signed off, however $2.6B for 80k per day seems a lot of money especially as for $1.3B they could have paid for the whole of SL revised Phase 1! Suppose it’s a chicken and egg scenario, but once SL gets FID the province is opened. We might even get some interest in our Southern acreage once SL development drilling starts!
Well I’m travelling back to the UK tomorrow 19th (no really!) so you can guarantee we get the OM news on the 19th, share price rallies to 35p per share on a £150m win, they drops back to 11p by the time I’m off the plane Friday evening! No figure eh! Oh well such is life! ;-)
LTT
Hi Much, I was thinking something similar, 7 or 8 percent but wanted to air on the conservative side. But 7% would be nearer £2m for a 2 month extension on a payout of £150m. Just out of interest how do they work out the interest? Obviously they can’t work it back to when the case started as £150m @ 7% per year would be £10.5m!
LTT
Good point Ocean, if we have won £150m @ 4% per year, then the 2month extension will cost the £1m in interest.
Of course it’s just a ballpark, not sure what the interest rate would be, but either way if they have lost and we are getting a decent payout, stringing it out further will cost them that’s for sure.
LTT