Member Info for longtermthinker

Alma,

I think 20p a share and maybe some RKH shares to have some skin in the game and Mr Calgary and co would bite thier hand off! IMHO

LTT

Could the pool table be covered in a shamrock" green! 🤔 or am I way off the mark.

I noticed BrightSpot that you have made your introductions on the Borders BB where you thought it was a lost cause until yesterday.

I cannot imagine Navitas taking out Borders alone, but with a partner coming onboard it would be sensible to get that Southern acreage sown up with maybe RKH throwing 65% of their adjacent acres into the pot in return for keeping 35% of the new enlarged Southern basin. Or maybe RKH gives up 5% to the new partner so north and south can be split 35/35/30 in return for a free carry on southern exploration.

After all, Gideon would look pretty foolish to open up the Northern Basin, then another player takes out Borders, books a rig slot and not only proves Darwin West, but clips a couple of other reservoirs and they start talking of billions of barrels! Think Guyana Stabroek Block ! Gas and condensate too, the load bearing fuel of the future, the EIA say will be used and increased out to 2050 and beyond!

Plenty to ponder 🤔

LTT

Cammbo,

Would love to believe your intuition was on the money, however on the money it is not I’m afraid. 100+ trades 400K shares traded does not seem like anyone knows anything.

Once we get volumes of 4m+ it might be a sign, but unless things pick up, we are in a holding pattern until someone gets a sniff of something .

LTT

Buzz,

I am no international banker, however when Navitas reached out to them, I’d hazard a guess that they would have set out some ground rules, such as, get RKH tax issues sorted, get their share of funds in escrow and get your own house in order. Why would the bank now move the goalposts. I’m if Shenandoah wasn’t on stream, but they will announce their Q3 results in a few days, and they will show a huge uptick in revenue.

As Navitas have done that, I cannot see any issue. Also it could be the reason RKH secured more than they required, just for such an eventuality that you mention of costs going up!

You may be right, that the shares might retreat after FID, but the trend will be up towards first oil and who knows what might happen if no partner is announced at FID, they might come in prior to first oil, would want to be out if Ithaca, Delek or Murphy came on board!

LTT

Croft, you forgot to add, being hit by a meteor and GCClarke saying it’s a sell!!!!!! 😳😉

Wasn’t it Clarke who was in the know and could move the share price with his posts🤔.

Anyway I have to agree, barring a black swan event, FID is nailed on for 2025. Cannot wait to get this show on the road after all these years. It will be a monumental event no matter how the market reacts.

LTT

Oscar, a push back of FID to mid 2026 would be a HUGE deal!

All the money in escrow would have to be returned with interest, Navitas would lose credibility having also raise funds for Sea Lion, then kicking the can down the road. RKH share price would half at the very least, and when Sam goes cap in hand to go after funds again, he'd be lucky to get the placing away at 30p a share with 55p warrants attached. First oil would be pushed back to 2029 at the earliest and FIG would not be happy either!

Don't even what to think about how that would dilute the long suffering!

So, "No big deal" is the understatement of the year!

LTT

I cannot imagine they would announce anything on the 17th of November, although they are releasing the results a tad earlier than usual, it's normally done on the 24th-26th of November, well it has been in previous years. However we cannot read too much into that as it's just the Q3 results, obviously it shows a direction of travel for Navitas with a HUGE uptick in revenue, which must be important for the International Bank corner-stoning the $1B, but it's in the calendar, it's no like an EGM or anything.

For me, the most likely FID date would be after the Falklands election. As someone stated, it would make a lot of sense now, as the media would be bombarding the FIG with requests for interviews, which I presume they could not do whilst in Purdah. Of course I would love it to be on the 17th, the sooner the better IMHO, but after the elections seems to be odds on.

LTT

Happy,

you presume that those 53p will flood the market, but as there are a lot of Jewish II's involved, I beg to differ. The cash will no longer be in escrow, it will become part of the war chest to get SL to first oil, why would they sell out at this early stage when 2 and a bit years after FID, they will be pumping first oil.

Methinks thou dost protest too much !

LTT

Happy,

I wasn't aware we had got to the end of 2025 so that is a bold statement for a start.

Shenandoah South has been sanctioned and will not produce oil until Q2 2028 and will only add 4200 barrels a day to the pot.

The UK does not sign off on the Falklands development. I asked Sam and Simon at the Sept AGM what kind of sway UKGov held over the Falklands and they said, is would be put before the Governor who is the UKGov representative on the islands and it was basically a "Rubber Stamping" exercise, the UKGov has stated on numerous occasions that the Falklands have a right to determine their own path and that includes with their resources, be it fishing, gold, farming, Oil development.

And you honestly think that the ups and downs of the oil price today, next week, even next year, determines an investment on a 35+year development! 🤔

LTT

9.7 MLA Barkman said the decisions made had a significant financial impact on the public

and future assemblies were going to have very tough decisions to make.

9.8 MLA Pollard noted that whilst the reserves headroom was in the red it did not mean FIG

was financially in the red and did not account for factors such as future increased

revenue. MLA Pollard also highlighted that they were having to spend a huge amount of

money on infrastructure that had not been invested in for decades, so there was no

choice but to invest in the capital programme.

9.9 MLA Short said that whilst there would be a ‘tighter fiscal world for the next 5-6 years’ he

highlighted that the plan did not consider any increased economic activity; but

understood why it had to be presented in this way.

Seems FIG are not counting their chickens, but they kinda are, if you are reading between the lines! They are spending this cash, investing in infrastructure because they expect to be awash with cash on a 5 year timeline. All looking good to me. Thanks Mogger.

LTT

Hi JPDM,

thanks for the welcome.

I didn't realise Eco had tried to purchase JHI a few years ago. That is interesting, as if anything comes good with Africa or Guyana, I would imagine Eco might have another go if they have some cash.

Exciting times are ahead.

LTT

Hello all,

I have also joined the party, partly due to the holding in JHI, but more so for the prospects in Guyana and Africa. Went to the AGM a number of years ago, after the failed well off Africa. I lost half my investment because I got too greedy, should have sold at least half when I was 5K up during the drill , but didn't, we have all been there eh! So I sold after the AGM as I wasn't confident anything would happen for a while, but with the remainder I bought RKH at 11p and have made back that loss and then some, but hope to be rewarded back in here. Guyana and Africa news would rerate the company, but it's still up in the air!

It's just a small punt, if it all comes to nought I won't lose any sleep, but at the very least if FID on Sea Lion goes ahead, Argos acreage will be up for sale like a shot, currently it's worth next to nothing, but once it's all go on Sea Lion, interested parties will look at the Falklands with hungry eyes, watch this space IMHO.

Good luck to us all.

LTT

We had, I think 4m+ traded yesterday and today we a struggling to get over 300k! And yet we are almost 2% up.

Again, it just shows we are at a point where everyone it either out or in, having bought or sold part of their holding and are now in a waiting position they are comfortable with until FID, which could come at any time now. Although, going by Navitas releasing their Q3 earning on the 17th of November, it's unlikely to be before then. IMHO If they are wanting a fanfare, they would be sensible to announce on or just after Q3 earning, saying, "Look what we have achieved, look where we have come from, and now look where we are going!".

As Nasty says, Hanukkah starts on the 15th of Dec and ends on the 22nd of December, so the window of opportunity to announce FID is shrinking with every day that passes, that is if they plan to announce this year as Sam has said.

So what caused the up and down in the share price yesterday? Plenty of BOT trades went through, surely it wasn't caused by delta9 assertions 🤔 Are the bots algorithms trawling through news and BB posts to trade on that also, if so I believe "FID will be announced on the 17th of November with the Q3 earnings", nudge nudge wink wink! 😉 (one for the bots to mull over!) 🤣

Of course I have no inside track, not connection to the Falklands, have seen no oily overalls, or overheard BraTalk LOL! But I can make an educated guess.

One thing we know for sure is, if it doesn't happen before the 31st of March....... well it doesn't bear thinking about until Feb 2026, then it will all be about damage limitation😬 😳

LTT

Delta9,

No worries, if anyone buys or sells on here based on a nod and a wink it’s up to them, sometimes it pays off, sometimes is doesn’t, but each to their own.

Still it’s all good, Serica were saying the Aoka would be released H2 2026 so the timing is about right. 3 months get out clause initiated by Bluewater around Feb so she sails/tugged away in May. What will it be, about a year getting refitted and upgraded before heading to the Falklands.

So going by the above, FID happens back end of December with news contracts are signed for the FPSO aiming other things and we are game on. We should see £1+ on that news, whether we head higher from there, who knows, it’s anyone’s guess. A fall back or a steady climb to £2+ up to first oil as we have seen this year with our steady climb from 14p to 80p+.

I do think there will be a fall back, however it will be underpinned by the funds going to towards opening up a new oil province and if there is no partner announced at FID. I believe there will be one prior to first oil, there is no way Nav and Rock can open it up on their own, they would be insane to try in as Marlon put it, in an ABCDE……..NOPQ fashion IMHO.

LTT

I have to say, I’m surprised that Borders isn’t heading north with RKH. With the rumor mill in full flow, FID possibly this year, I expected Borders to be dragged up also.

With the need for gas sky rocketing as the transition fuel, and Borders having such a HUGE amount of acreage with lookalike Darwin prospects, it’s no longer IF it’s WHEN IMHO. I

Surely someone will want to sew up Borders sooner rather than later 🤔

LTT

Either way, Navitas has been quietly rising, 5%+ in the past month and 35%+ during the past 6 months and over 50% year to date.

They are releasing their Q3 results later this month, it should show a VERY health bump up in $$$$$$.

By the way, thanks for the insights and input from everyone, it’s interesting to hear things are going on in the background showing a path to FID. Moggers FIG updated map was interesting also, showing Liz 🤔

LTT

Good to hear the rumor that the Aoka Mizu maybe will head off for refit/upgrade in May next year, but it doesn’t mean they would have to announce FID now or even this month!

The contract with Prax was a 3 month notice period by either party, I presume that would be honored by the new owners, so with that in mind, for a May release date you would be looking at Feb or March date for the 3 month notice period, so whether they announce FID tomorrow or the 31st of December or even the 31st of March (hopefully sooner the better) the timeline is still on track. If it was heading off the end of March, then the only way that could happen would be FID this year.

Either way it adds fuel to the fire 🔥

LTT

Yep, Navitas topping all time highs!

The wheels are in motion, as to when they FID, who knows, by the end of 2025 Sam said in Sept, so watch this space. The daily/weekly ups and downs are immaterial to those who are in till first oil.

Just FID will seal the deal and set us on that path.

LTT

Ooops,

spoke too soon, the div has just been credited to me account.

LTT

Does anyone know when the dividends are heading into our accounts? I know they were due for payment today, but wondering if anyone had any idea of when they are credited?

Many thanks

LTT