Member Info for longtermthinker

Yep, I cannot understand it either Gus, however once FID hits and the Falklands becomes HUGE news, there will be folk buying into Borders as a cheaper way to get in, it won't matter that it's a different basin, the great news is with Darwin we have a discovery and that gives us a big chip in the game. Now who is going to cash in that chip for us?

LTT

ZYX098,

Gideon made an interesting comment in an investors conference call earlier this year, think is was July, it's on their website anyway.

I was using You tube auto translation feature, but he made a comment about there being a lot of gas, and I don't think he was talking about condensate in Darwin, he was discussing the North basin. I think from memory his comments were along the lines of , there was a lot of oil around Sea Lion, but the numbers didn't include the huge amount of gas there also. Gideon likes gas and as you say, its the fuel that is only going to grow in use over the next few decades.

By the way, you being in the industry, wasn't there a joke about, if you wanted a dead cert on getting a discovery, all you had to do was drill near an old Shell well that they had walked away from!

LTT

Seems like the shares are being held tighter and tighter, low volume today and yet the share price rises, it can only mean that the MM's are having to raise the bid to entice folk in to selling whilst inflating the ask. Loads of A trades at the same timing what's with the 6no. 1500 shares traded all at 09:50:50?

Nobody wants to sell now, with FID so close, they can smell it, it's too close to call, although all indications are that it WILL be in 2025. The election date moved; Navitas and RKH raising funds, raising even more just this week; Navitas stating in their Q3 results that the are doing RBL on Shenandoah in Q1 2026, and yet they still say Sea Lion FID is on track for 2025.

How many more signs do we need, Gideon standing on Stanley Harbour wearing a sandwich board saying, "The End (Of waiting) is Nigh, FID is happening 2025".

LTT

If we don't get above 15p+ on RKH FID, I think we will be a tasty target for a buy-out. A bigger player could waste $600m on acquiring a licence, shooting and interpreting 3D, drilling some exploration wells over the next 3 years that may or may not come in! With Borders, they have a discovery, and for $250m to $350m they bypass all of the above to take us out, and spend another $300m on an appraisal/well test and it's game on. If they ran to another exploration on Darwin West and they clipped a deeper target, they could be looking at 2B barrels+. That would bring the bigger players for sure, all done for $600m. It would be small change compared to the time and money it takes to get to a discovery.

Interesting times are ahead, I hope Borders can hang on for a good deal or a bumper buy-out.

LTT

Buffit ,

I would imagine the only folk who would shy away for the Falklands would be those with a big footprint in Argentina as the risks would be a change in government, the Peronists get in and start to seize assets. Harbour maybe was eyeing Argentina for a while as a growth market and thus binned the partnership with RKH, which has turned out good for us as we now have a partner who is laser focused on getting Sea Lion up and running.

Can you believe that once FID is in the rear view mirror, we could be just over 2 years to first oil! It’s difficult to imagine it, everything is being put into place to sprint out of the starting blocks. So the idea that FID is priced in seems ridiculous to me, there will not be a flood of shares into the market with a 2 year wait to first oil, as we hover around 80p the warrants won’t be cashed in for some time, even if we go over £1 for a spell. 2 year is nothing in investment terms.

Of course traders will have a field day on the ups and downs and why not, there are all sorts of strategies. Mine is buy low and sell high, a simple strategy that I have often got wrong. But FID is the main risk and that looks like it will be gone very soon, then despite the ups and downs, the trend will be up to first oil, the blips will be just that. Plus there could be lots of exciting news in between FID and first oil.

I cannot wait for the next part of this exciting journey, it’s been a long time coming, but worth the wait. 😊

LTT

Santos1,

so we have been through the DEEP valley of despair right, and getting ready got the ride up to first oil in 2028. There will be bumps along the way, but they will smooth out over the time and the direction will be up. Then of course there is the news of a partner coming onboard, no idea what shape or form that will take, but it is bound to happen, there is a whole province at stake, why would it be left to just 2 companies.

It is all looking good to me. Navitas, at such a late stage saying they are on track to FID in 2025 is a pretty bold and confident move, they couldn't say that if they were still in talks with FIG or the International Bank.

They must be struggling to make a market at the moment, nobody buying nobody selling, waiting on FID, what a Christmas present that is going to be, whether the share price goes up, down or sideways, it will be a monumental moment for share holders and the Falkland Islanders. Then it will be al hands to the pumps and news should come thick and fast

LTT

Happy,

There you are stating only part of the story, 55k per days is phase 1&2, phase 3,4&5 will bump that up to over 120k+ and require additional FPSO’s.

They may not have been an operator before, but they have an extremely experienced team with Ian Ramsey and Co. One of whom is presenting next March on how exactly they are going to develop Sea Lion.

A partner will come onboard, it’s not in Navitas’ profile to do things without partners to share the risk and reward. They will come in prior to first oil, there is no way Navitas and RKH can open up a new oil province with just the two of them, it would be insane to try.

LTT

Happy are you being a contrarian just for the sake of it? Why would FIG move the move the election ?

Why would Navitas reiterate they are going for FID in 2025, so late in November, having worked with FIG for the past 3 years, without being aware of what the can and cannot do/what is achievable?

The easiest thing to have done is say Q1 2026, but they haven’t, so either they are lying, they have totally misread the situation or they are going to do as they say?

15 years of history doesn’t necessarily mean that will be the pattern for the future.

LTT

Seems AI has got it wrong again,

✔ Final detailed Field Development Plan (FDP) in final approval stages.

However, from the July 2025 Investors presentation,

"Field development plan (FDP) – “technical” approval was received

from the Falkland Islands Government (FIG) for phases 1 & 2."

So, to my mind, it's all systems go, Navitas must be extremely confident and have a FID date pencilled in their diaries. They had a get out clause with Q3 results, they could have said due to whatever, they have pushed back to Q1 2026. Nobody would have blamed them needing a bit more time to get the funds sorted and to give the International Bank a bit more time. The fact they have not, sends the signal that it's game on, and everything is primed to go, bar the shouting IMHO.

Despite Pete doubling down on the 24th of November, sometime after December the 11th seems the most likely date to watch. Election is done, the new folk are signed in, and they will be ready to answer all the questions they will be bombarded with from the press. Then watch the headlines start to flow, "Falklands black gold"; "Next Guyana in the offing, British minnow owns a Lions share!" ; "Islanders to be come the richest folk on the planet" and finally "Sea Lion about to roar!" There will be some catchy ones from the Sun and the Mail no doubt! LOL

LTT

I think RKH has to prioritize surviving until first oil! That is my number one concern once FID is announced, will they not be seen as a tasty way in to the Falklands for a bigger player. Shares and cash could be on the cards sooner rather than later.

Of course I go hope they stay the course, but if someone were to offer £1.50 a share, I wonder how many would take it 🤔. Once FID is in the bag, maybe we might settle at £1.20-£1.40 which would mean any offer would have to be considerably higher, and as we get closer to first oil, 2 and a bit years away, we should be higher still. Which means all the more reason to strike sooner rather than later!

Either way, I am in until first oil with a major part of my holding, maybe trading 20% if there is a ridiculous rise. I am a believer in Warren, he’s done alright.

LTT

At the time of this post, Navitas have just hit another all time high, whether it will hold it another matter, but it’s heading in the right direction for results tomorrow.

LTT

Hi Flipper56,

Yes, I was being a bit too conservative, they also suggested 3 FPSO’s. There is no way the can do that alone with A funding B, and B funding C, etc!

As with Shenandoah, they will sanction Phase2 long before first oil on Sea Lion and possibly bring in a partner at the same time to really get things moving and to open up the whole basin. In fact it would be the only possible way for them to do that. IMHO.

Happy, what did you make of Moggers post yesterday? Navitas presenting their Sub-sea plans to their peers? Does that sound like a company who are going to kick the can down the road into H2 2026?

LTT

Have to agree Rich,

Isobel will be a separate development with its own FPSO, the heated tubing wouldn’t stretch that far and let’s be honest, they will end up pumping 100k+ alone from the 5 phases of Sea Lion and Isobel could be bigger.

As Dem says, Isobel and Elaine will need a lot of work before even thinking about a FPSO, and if Navitas and RKH go it alone (unlikely IMHO) it will be 10 years if the are doing it in an ABC….KLM style.

LTT

Nasty,

I think that is the issue, if the refit is booked in for May, then yes, FID has to happen this month or next to allow the 3 months contract wind down and approx 2 month tow to dock. However, if it's to disconnect in May then the urgency for FID is reduced.

For the record, I am with Sam on this, Navitas have said FID will be by the end of 2025 and there are fewer and fewer reasons for that not to happen.

Money raised TICK

Shenandoah pumping away TICK

Q3 Results due on Monday TICK

Plus the multitude of other things that have been going on in the background, that in isolation might seem unimportant, but when you start putting them all together, show a direction of travel.

Sure you can read anything into what BrightSpot is saying; Pete, The Barman, Look East, recovered pool table, doubling down, etc. But it's all hearsay, whispers and rumor's. The problem being it can change on a dime, far better to make your own judgement and be in or out to your own comfort levels. Then you have only yourself to blame.

Have a great weekend all.

LTT

Thanks Mogger,

a little bit of light reading for this evening!

LTT

1m+ before 9am bumped up with a couple of hefty buys. Someone wants to be in for the weekend!

Should be an interesting Monday with Navitas publishing their Q3 earnings, even at the recent subdued oil price, it will be a bumper increase in revenues for them.

Like Alma, I am intrigued by the announcement of another raise, possibly it’s on the back of impressive numbers on production and they want some cash to kick start everything on FID.

LTT

Good evening Alma,

I think Serica were planning to keep Lancaster following until H2 2026, they were asked in a conference call about extending further, but they said it was out of their hands. So if delta9 says disconnect is May, then 3 month countdown will be triggered possibly end of Jan or early Feb. This is if delta9 is saying disconnect rather than the refit/upgrade is booked in for May. If it’s disconnect, then 2 month to get dry dock, and July to start work.

Either way, it just means FID could come anytime from now until Jan 2026 for the Aoka to be on track.

LTT

I was thinking about the FPSO and the May date. If the May date is for it to moved from Lancaster, then there is no real urgency, they could start the 3month countdown from Jan or even Feb.

However, if the berth is booked to start the refit from May, then the window of opportunity to sign off on the FPSO and thus FID, gets narrower. It will take 2 month approx to tow the Aoka to refit, plus you have the wind down contract of 3 months.

So if the above is true, and the Aoka is booked in for May, then FID has to happen this month or next at the latest. 🤔

Just a thought.💭

LTT

Oscar,

Whitehall has no say, if they were even to hint they were controlling the Falklands behind the scenes all hell would break loose.

The only task UKGov has to do is rubber stamp everything and that's it, no discusion, no sticking their two penneth in to the mix. Every UKGov previously and now has always stated the Falklands have a right to self determination and the right to do with their resources, whatever they see fit.

It's for them to decide, not some bods sitting in Whitehall 8,000 miles away. End of story.

LTT

Oscar,

Why have a hard stop date if you are just going to move the goalposts! It makes no sense. What reasons do you have that make you imagine Navitas will delay? Care to say, rather than just drop random comments?

Navitas and RKH have their funds in order. Navitas are going after some more and they have their Q3 results due very soon, with no indication whatsoever they are pumping below capacity, so the results should show a massive increase in revenue.

All we know the international bank were on board since May, they are cornerstones for the $1B and the response from II’s they reached out to was positive. Which corresponds with RKH’s Placing which went without a hitch and Navitas’ that was over subscribed.

So why would the bank, or II’s get cold feet now? What has changed? Don’t say the oil price outlook as we have already been over that, Navitas have a break even of $27 a barrel, they will no invest on the day to day ups and downs. The consensus it changing that oil and gas will be used and will have increased usage until well past 2050, big oil is binning wind farms and solar to up production because if they don’t in the coming years we will see a huge spike due to a decade of underinvestment. IMHO.

LTT