Member Info for longtermthinker

Buzz,

who is opening up new fields? Maybe there are a couple, but the replacement of production is done by incremental infill drilling, satellites being drilled and brought on stream pretty sharpish, if those get knocked back, the decline increases.

I think I read somewhere that 2025 has been really bad for explorations wells and tie-back wells this year on the UK side of the North Sea, they need to drill just to stand still, but if they put off tie-back drilling because of the double hit of EPL and low oil prices, production is going to fall in real terms quite quickly. Shale despite the "AI" support to make drilling more efficient and more chemicals to get the oil out, cannot turn the tide on decline when you are already scraping the bottom of the barrel, even if the press and media say otherwise.

Sub $55 WTI it going to hit EVERYONE hard, they longer it stays there, the harder the rebound will be, it always happens that way.

LTT

Yes Buffit, the die is cast, the funds are committed, even IF the share price dropped below 53p they wouldn’t get their money back. Once Financial Close happens the shares will be issued and the unconditional placing and the OO will take place. I cannot recall if the unconditional placing allows them not to participate, so on that part they maybe could walk away, as we could. There would be no point buying shares at 53p for us Pi’s if the shares were at 50p to buy in the market! Maybe the placees might still participate in the unconditional offer as they would also get a warrant for every 4 purchased, but that would depend on where they saw the share price over the next 3 years. If, as many think, FID and first oil is priced in and no upside past 80p, then maybe RKH will be $30m+ short if the shares drop to 50p 🤔

However, I cannot see it myself but stranger things have happened.

LTT

Yes Navitas are hedged, oil set to flow 2028 when the oil price will no doubt be back above $65+ per barrel for Brent so nothing to worry about. Navitas went ahead with Shenandoah through a much tougher oil environment.

The day to day, week to week for the oil price is not so much of a concern, it goes up, it goes down, however even if it stays sub $60 for the next 12 months, it will only play into Navitas' hands, as bigger players kick cans down the road, cut jobs, delay drilling and cancel projects. Lets face it, so many projects will head onto the back burner if WTI drops to around $50 and all you need is for Opec to take some off the table and we are back up again, it's like a merry-go-round.

Navitas are almost signed off on the funds, once they have them, there is little to be concerned about until late 2027 early 2028 when we will actually pump first oil. They will just get their head down and crack on. A lot of thinks to do and get signed off once the Financial Close happens, then we are off to the races, things will kick off on multiple fronts. It is going to be an exciting couple of years.

LTT

Well whoever bought those 379,873 shares yesterday is not going to be happy with a drop to 60p, neither are the placees! But then if it drops to below 60p, where will the massive sell off come from? If I weigh in for my 53p shares when the share price is 55p, I'm hardly going to sell them straight away!

The placees don't seem to be having the best deal now do they if it drops further, and those warrants will be way offside, suppose thems the risks you take. Bet they wish they had got the nod from Gideon about the Eco deal, rather than tie up the cash here for 6 months on a promise of untold riches! LOL

Although, maybe they have done the deal, as the buyer yesterday, looking way, way down the road, not as their feet, getting spooked and stumbling over ever little crack and pebble in the road ahead!

If nothing else, it puts a line in the sand of 53p, it will be onwards and upwards from there in 2026. Maybe not is a straight line, but it surely won't be 53p in 2026, with a hotel and temporary dock being built, the Heliport, the FPSO sailing away for refit and the rig being booked and setting sail to the Falklands possibly Q4 2026.

Have a very Merry Christmas everyone, we are finally on the start line, our Nike's are on, the warm ups have been completed and our tracksuits are piled up at the side of the track. We have had many false starts, but this is it, once Financial Close happens, we are off, and it's not a marathon, it's will be more like a 400m hurdles, or maybe a 5k run with a sprint at the end. It's finally coming together so have a Happy, Healthy and Preposterous 2026!

😉

LTT

Rogue,

it will be more like 1no. 53p share per 40 shares held (this is just a rough guesstimate). The cut off date will most likely be the day FID was announced or the day before, it would not be back dated to June.

In Sept, Sam and the broker Henry, whom is arranging the OO said the would launch the Open Offer almost immediately after FID or within a couple of days, and anyway they would have to do it within 10 days to send out the documents and acceptance forms. 🤔

However it would seem they are waiting until Financial Close for the Placing/Open Offer to be triggered. So once that happens, they will give us the cut of date to be on the share register and the quantity we can apply for.

LTT

I suppose also, they may have FID'd , but until Financial Close, it's still, on paper at least not a done deal.

It would mean the II's and their 53p placing shares and OO shares are not available to trade yet, by the same token, any II's that may want to take a stake in RKH will be holding back until the 53p shares and the dilution has taken place, they would be crazy to buy prior to that.

If as many predict, there is a flood of 53p shares hitting the market, best to keep ones powder dry until afterwards and buy into that drop, if it happens, but best to wait and see.

LTT

Interestingly, Shell has just booked the drillship Valaris on an 800 day contract for $300m. If my maths are correct, thats $375k per day. Of course there will be other bit and bobs to pay, however there will also be savings as I presume there would be no need for tugs, etc as it can get around under it's own steam, also mob costs would be a lot lower as I imagine the cruising speed of a drill ship would be far better than a semi being towed. It bodes well for Navitas getting a deal on a rig, a 4+ year contract minimum would give them a lot of bargaining power.

If nothing else, it shows what deal can be done in a softening oil market, $60 oil is playing into our hands ready to get back to $70+ at first oil in 2028.

Nice.

LTT

Cheers Mogger,

That’s great news. It would seem like they will have a busy 2026 as everything kicks off. Navitas won’t hang about once Financial Close is done and dusted, as that will be when the funds in escrow get released and they can start putting the money where their mouth is.

Work will kick off with the Hotel, the office refurbishment, the Temporary Dock and the Heliport, to name but a few things that have to be cracked on with on the islands.

What a time to be elected, to oversee the massive changes to the Falklands future.

LTT

It's hardly a rush for the exit at just shy of 8m traded so far today, if 20m+ exchange hands before 10am tomorrow, then i would start to be a bit concerned.

Also, Navitas will not give a jot to timings of announcing FID or anything else for that matter, they just want to crack on with, "The next big thing", not waiting for the oil price to recover, not even waiting for the newly elected Falklands Gov to be signed in, I mean if they wanted to wait an extra 48hrs they could have, but no, they just want to get on with things.

Of course the market is cautious, they just heard the Financial Closing is a couple of weeks off and costs have gone up and there may another fund raise down the line. They are also enjoying office parties and getting ready for Christmas. We should get some brokers notes and media attention over the next couple of weeks/months, I am sure even Macy will put out the word soon as RKH has a soft spot in his heart.

I'm disappointed a little, to see gains diminish, but I cannot complain too much and it's only paper losses, plus I am pretty confident that the future is bright for RKH, maybe not this month or even next, but over the next 2 years we should see a healthy return from here.

LTT

Yep, have bought a few more Borders, couldn't resist at around 10.11p, never thought this would happen on the opening up of a new oil province!!!! I imagined we would be off to the races, but it seems like it will be a slow burn until some news from Borders.

Rumblefish, as for RKH going cap in hand to get more cash, they won't need it until the rig is near drilling, so they have a year, in which time, if the share goes over 80p, the warrants will be cashed in which should cover the lions share of any cash needed, also they could possibly take out an insurance policy against it.

But back to Borders, once Financial close has happened, Navitas has the cash to run with things and FID is officially a done deal, someone will start sniffing around Borders, if not Navitas themselves. If they are doing a heavy oil deal with Eco, why not do a deal with Borders as they will have boots on the ground and Darwin will flow like a river of condensate gold.

LTT

Yep, I was wrong big style, I thought it would be up on FID, but sentiment is a strange beast, seems like it's going to be a slow burn to first oil.

I wasn't trading either way, I was out having a very nice lunch when the RNS hit, it did go to 93p thought very briefly! LOL

Anyway we have to wait for financial closing so there is still time!

;-)

Good luck with whatever your strategy, but it just goes to show, don't listen to anyones advice/rumor's on BB, we are all like stopped clocks, we will all be wrong most of the time but get it right once, you can become the Messiah!

LTT

Sorry Divi, I cannot do this again, you said "will sell the lot in 2029-2030 on first oil (IF)"

but you are planning to accumulate now at 65p if it drops, but you cannot see first oil till 2029-30 if at all! Then you say you will sell!!!!!

What happened to your shorts? What happened to not posting again on RKH BB?

Make your mind up. I'm afraid back into the dusty bin for you. Good luck with your trading, but why share your trades, you are only setting yourself for a fail.

LTT

Stevo12,

see this below from the latest Investors Presentation;

"The Partnership is working to obtain the final approval from the Falkland Islands government (FIG) for the project’s detailed field development plan, which is expected shortly prior to the final investment decision (FID), following the approval in principle, which has already been given."

I could be wrong, but my reading of that implies that the FDP has already been approved, so it's just a matter of rubber stamping prior to FID. I would imagine the Tax and letter of comfort, etc, would have been sorted in the last meeting before purdah.

If this was not all done bar the shouting, then I i'd expect them to have to sit down and have a read through everything, however, that would take them into Q1 2026, and who wants that! No, the election was brought forward for a reason, FIG have to do it, they have been getting everything in place for this pivotal moment in their history, that will ultimately secure their future.

LTT

Has the ask just touched 12p? It's about time!!!! I'm wanting 15p+ this week as we get to touching distance on FID for Sea Lion, then who knows after that!

LTT

Hmmmh I'm not so sure WTE and Eco are up due to RKH FID alone, Eco is up for the Midas touch that seems to follow Gideon around.

As you say, why are they up and not RKH and Borders for that matter. FID on Sea Lion will effect Borders in the short term big style, why are they not at 15p+? I know they are way behind on the curve, but sentiment and folk clutching at a chance to be part of the Falklands dream, will see Borders as a cheap way in, without doing any research what so ever! They will just see, "Well I can buy 8 shares in Borders for 1 share in RKH, and Borders going to 33p on news seems a lot easier that RKH going to £2.64!"

LTT

Hope you are well Supra3, get the champagne reading for next years AGM!

;-)

Nikb,

the original election was to happen as follows;

"With the first meeting of the current Legislative Assembly taking place on 8 November 2021,[3] the Legislative Assembly had to be dissolved by midnight on 7 November 2025 and an election take place before 17 January 2026. However, on 7 August 2025, the Executive Council announced an early dissolution of the Legislative Assembly and an election to take place on Thursday 11 December 2025"

So FIG moved it forward for some reason. Polling closes at 8pm on the 11th of December and the results are announced later that evening. Unlikely Navitas will announce anything on the 12th as its the Sabbath, so the earliest would be Sunday the 14th, then we get an RNS Monday morning on the 15th!

I cannot see there being an announcement week commencing the 22nd if they want to make a fanfare of it with some Navitas Bods and Sam and Simon there for the photo op on the steps of the Governors house, as they would be stuck in the Falklands for Christmas away from family and friends. However, that is if they plan a bit of an event, Navitas announce it and that's that. Nobody can guess the importance of a new Falklands Oil province or what is going through FIG's minds, they may, as suggested want it out in the open and then into Christmas and New Year with the Gov closed and everyone on hols until the smoke dies down.

With regards to Hannukah, it's a minor holiday so work is permitted, of course except on the Sabbath.

So, we are heading to the finish line, or maybe the start line, depending on how you look at it. The question is, will they take on the podium to sign off, for the world to see, standing proud to the flash of cameras and questions from the media (although the media will probably just use AI or make stuff up going by the recent articles doing the rounds!) or will they meet around the back in the car park, looking over their shoulder whilst they give the prize, then say, "Keep it zipped up, under your coat, the less folk that are aware of this the better!"

Interesting times are ahead.

LTT

Sunday or Monday is my guess if it’s going to happen this side of Christmas. If Navitas where running to their own schedule, they would have FID’d this sooner, the fact we are now so near to the election result signals that they don’t want to step on anyone’s toes or steal the FIG’s thunder. They want the new Gov signed in and feet under the table before they announce FID.

The candidates have ALL said they want and need the oil industry. Everything has no doubt been signed off at the final meeting before purdah so we wait with bated breath.

Everything is lining up for a jolly good Christmas 🎅🏻 fingers crossed the starters pistol is fired and we haven’t jumped the gun 😬

LTT

I don’t know what the current UKGov is playing at, everyone and there dog has got rid of their EPL or similar, with $60 and lower oil this coming year, it should fall away, however I believe gas has to be below a certain threshold also and that ain’t happening any time soon. It seems we are heading to net zero at the UK’s expense whilst the rest of the world enjoys far cheaper energy and the economies it can bring. How can everyone see this but Ed cannot!

Thank goodness the Falklands is not part of Net Zero and the Paris agreement and more importantly can follow their own path 😅

LTT

Have they just regurgitated the Telegraph article!!!!!

"Once deployed, the Aoka Mizu will drill up to 23 wells in the first stages of the development"

WOW, are they going to be able to refit the Aoka Mizu and covert it into a drill ship in time!!!! Then they will have to find another FPSO to handle the production!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Think Happy was right, they will have to push back into late 2026 or maybe 2027 for FID as I imagine you cannot just bolt on a drill to the Aoka, they will have to cut a big whole right through the hull and then what will stop it from sinking?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Oh crikey, I better rethink my investments here, are maybe stop reading articles that have been very poorly researched!

🙄😤

😉

LTT

I cannot believe it either, surely someone is sniffing around Borders with FID on the radar. The postcode gets put well and truly on the map once Navitas FID Sea Lion.

Eco got a great deal with Navitas in new-ish basins, deep water. Navitas would be crazy to allow Darwin to slip through their fingers!

Either way, on FID I see 20p + as folk flock to anything Falklands related.

LTT