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Sorry meant “Doesn’t effect the outcome” Fat fingers and iPhone typing don’t mix well!
Morning all,
I also would like to think they would lift the Stay as it’s going on 6 years since the start of proceeding, waiting so long , getting a unanimous decision, then have the ROI request and an annulment AND THEN Have the Stay extended would be a bit of a kick in the teeth!
Of course it does effect the outcome and it’s only 8 months or so to final decision, but it could set a precedent that needs nipping in the bud IMHO
LTT
Just wondering was the 30 Days mentioned in documents by ICSID? I know in the last update from RKH, Sam said the result of the Stay would be in the next few weeks, but wasn’t sure were I read the 30 days.
Presume RKH lawyers would be requesting whether the Stay has been granted or lifted but maybe don’t want to be seen to be chasing, however it’s important for RKH to know. Either way we have just 9 months until the judgement is made, hopefully some news from Navitas before then to shift the share price northward otherwise the warrants may be a bit of a damp squid, had hoped to make 50-100% on the warrants!
LTT
Hi Happy,
Have to agree with the topping up, have just done the same, if anyone made a big for RKH they would have to offer a princely sum, 25-30p for the possible OM award for a start, then what value for Sealion? Think if anyone makes a bid it would come after FID/Project Sanction.
Of course this would mean paying a premium with the OM award hopefully awarded in full at such time, but then it’s like betting on a sure thing, the reason we are currently hovering around 10p is because of the risks, the bigger players like a sure thing.
LTT
If the 30days is up I wonder if the decision has been decided and if it will be given shortly . Not sure how it works really. I am aware in the past we have had considerable waits after meetings have been concluded however they seemed to have sped things up since then. So with that in mind, could be here something today or Monday.
It’s not like we are chasing them to speed up the making of a decision, the outcome of “To Stay or Not To Stay” would have been made by now, so how long does it take to inform the lawyers of both parties? I would have thought at the very least RKH lawyers would be all over this and would want to know, presume ROI would need to know pretty quickly too!
Any national holidays we should be aware of that may have knocked this back a little?
LTT
Are we expecting the results of the Stay or Not to Stay tomorrow/early next week? I think DEM and another couple of posters got the 30days as finishing today or tomorrow, so could the price rise over 11p have anything to do with it?
Worst case scenario is they extend the Stay and we hover around 10p for the next 8 months or so unless Navitas announce anything. But should they cancel the Stay? Or even tell ROI to put the funds in escrow pending the outcome in 2024, what then?
Interesting times ahead me thinks.
LTT
CitizenTS,
That makes a lot of sense. RKH have been waiting 6+years now for a payout and got a unanimous decision, how could they allow ROI to kick the can down the road again without some caveats. If one of the judges had gone against I could imagine the Stay being upheld but as all 3 agreed in our favor, it should be an open and shut case, they must realise what the ROI are trying to do.
So if they leave the Stay in place, the least they can do is say all the funds have to be deposited in escrow until Jan 2024, that means that when the decision is made, we get all or part ( incase they reduce the amount) straight away. If however ROI don’t set the funds for payment aside then the Stay in cancelled and RKH can go for the money. That would be the fairest outcome all round IMHO.
LTT
Hiya Ovets, SpaceHoppa, yep I freely admit I felt a right numpty after I posted it. Just shows how long ago I logged into my Linkedin account, it was labeled as an "Upcoming Event" LOL, hope I didn't get anyone too excited!
Something has to give soon anyway, should hear about the OM Stay this week or next with a bit of luck. Then over the Summer we should get some idea of how things are progressing with Navitas, if not least on the rig front. 65days + per well, 11 prior to first oil, plus rig mob time which if from the NS could be 2/3 months and we are looking at a possible 2.5years rig contract. That's something you don't book in with a month of twos notice!
Suppose it all depends on whether they want to get the funds in the bank before starting to source equipment or they start getting the ducks lined up as they go along. Hopefully the later.
LTT
Blooming heck, please ignore my last post, it was last year! LOL, back to work, nothing to see here!
Sorry about that.
LTT
Just thought I would share this, not sure if it's been posted before but on Wed, May 18, 2022, 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM Navitas are having an investors conference, here is the event link below (if it works),
https://bit.ly/3N9ExR7
Should be interesting.
LTT
Hi Penny,
no I haven't taken up the warrants either, they are just sat waiting in my account, probably stay there until October or November and then might be worth buying and keeping or can just get my broker to buy and then sell them and I pocket the difference, which at the moment is not worth doing, but come October it just might be. Maybe sooner if the OM Stay is no approved or Navitas announce funding progress or letters of intent being sent out on rig contracts.
I am pretty sure they will have to source a rig and send out a letter of intent, can't just book a rig the month before, not when they have to take into account MOB costs and 18 holes to be drilled (11 prior to first oil). If you work on them taking 45days per well, that's over 2.2 years of drilling, that's 1 year and 4 months prior to first oil then another 1 year after. I think from memory they did a well in about 30-35 days on average, but imagine a producer would take longer as it seeks out the sweet spots. Someone with actual knowledge of these things please put me straight on the above as it's all guestimation on my part!
So what I'm getting at is, despite not expecting news on the OM award until Jan 2024 and FID not due until first half of 2024 as far as we are aware, it would be wrong to assume that it's a case of nothing to see here until mid 2024 at the earliest.
However time will tell.
LTT
Hi PennyorPound,
May I ask how you get to us being a bit short of cash?
What would we need funding for? Pre-FID costs are covered at 8% interest , Post-FID costs are covered interest free, if we don’t get the OM award in the first half of 2024 (presuming the case is won by us) then there are options for the $30m approx we would need to stump up to get to first oil (the $30m was someone else’s numbers so could be more).
So if we get FID and project sanction in 2024, firstly they wouldn’t need the cash straight away and either way we would have the following options;
1. Would be RBL which would be achievable upon project sanction.
2. Sell part of the award, as we would get a much better deal after the annulment has been thrown out.
3. Fund raise. Not ideal however after winning OM, FID and project sanction I would be astonished if the share price wasn’t 40p+ so dilution would be minimal.
So can’t see us running out of cash before one or all of the above happen. Let’s not forget the outstanding warrants to be exercised prior to end of Dec 2023 there has to be some reason for that date IMHO. But open to be proved wrong.
LTT
I am really happy with Navitas's plan, I was always concerned a watered down version would bump up the costs per barrel and therefore make it touch a go whether it got FID or not. I know the oil price is set to be above $70 for the foreseeable but it would be just our luck to have a oil price spike down in the 1st Q 2024 due to recession and it's up in air as to getting sign off or not!
The new plan is pretty much what PMO worked up but with first oil sooner and a staggered start. Actually costing more with a total capex of $2.2bn but the oil starts flowing prior to stumping up the extra $900m. A master stroke if you ask me.
Also can imagine the rig heading down early to drill the second campaign to drill a few holes on Isobel and Elaine, it would be rude not to with a possible field bigger than Sea Lion!
All we need now is news from OM as to whether the stay is on or off. The stay being upheld is already priced in and the long wait to FID in 1st half of 2024 is also, but imagine if the stay was not upheld, it could happen as a unanimous decision was given in RKH favour plus they have been waiting for what is it, almost 7 years! Also Navitas will have to start the ball rolling sooner rather than later, surely they can't wait until 2024 and announce FID/Sanction and THEN start rattling the tin for funds and look for a RIG/FPSO/Manpower, etc.
I am looking forward to this years AGM indeed, it should be the brightest and most upbeat in the past 7/8 years!
LTT
Just found this;
Petrojarl Knarr has been at Aker Solutions yard at Stord, Norway since August 2022 after completing oil production on the Knarr project in Norway.
“Aker Solutions intends to contract tugs to tow the Petrojarl Knarr FPSO from Norway to Dubai H2 2023 ready for its major upgrade. It expects the EPC work to begin H1 2024 and finish at the end of 2025.”
So if Navitas intend to have oil flowing late 2026 then they would need to find a suitable FPSO by H2 2024 to allow time for it to travel to a suitable shipyard for refit.
Still not sure how FID works though, do they FID then go look at booking the rig, manpower, etc or do they get letters of intent signed off on costs and get everything lined up ready for the FID project sanction button to be pushed? Either way they will have to get some brass in before all that.
LTT
Hope you’re right Gus, fingers crossed, but the board are terribly quiet, why are they not shouting from the rooftops.
Good luck to us all.
LTT
Pages, I think the best hope we have is to get FID on Sealion over the line, development drilling underway then fingers crossed a big player farms in for 30% of SL and then takes a hard look at Darwin. It needs a big player with cash as getting finance it’s getting more and more difficult due to the demonization on anything oil and gas I’m afraid. Would love someone to stride in and take Darwin to production but nobody is going to take that risk at this time, it hasn’t happening this past 10 years, what has changed to make it happen now?
LTT
I’d like to thing the point of the EPL kicking in would be $80 or $85 per barrel, if it is announced as that then all good, anything less then Linda will stay on the new track of edging away from the NS and looking at overseas opportunities. So either way I see onwards and upwards from here.
LTT
Yep Nick, can’t believe after that update from Navitas we are still languishing at the 10p mark, Navitas have done more in the past 6months than PMO did in the past 10years.
I know once bitten an all that, PMO promised so many times “Next year, next year!” and a lot can happen between now and FID, but it’s seems if it all comes to nought, it want be through a lack of trying.
Also reading through some of the info posted my DEM and the like I noticed there were a percentage of Annulments that didn’t even make it to a hearing, they were thrown out for time wasting. That could be a possibility too. Either way I hope they went down the quantum route, it would be really funny if the panel said, “ Hhhmmm yes you are right, the production numbers, field life and the oil price used are wrong, you actually owe RKH $375m plus interest!” LOL One can but dream.
LTT
Well if they are planning boots on the ground and first oil by 2026/27, they will HAVE to do FID and Sanction by the end of this year.
Now if I was a conspiracy theorist I’d be wondering why Sam gave us the warrants with an exercise date of Dec 2023! If this gets sanctioned before, then I can see 100% of those warrants being cashed in, with many folk wishing they had applied for more, me included.
(No doubt you can tell I’m at a loose end today, will shut up for a bit now, getting a bit over excited!)
LTT
Good point Ralph, Israeli version of UKEF! Even BlackRock is back tracking on the “No fossil fuel investments” rhetoric!
LTT