Member Info for longtermthinker

Nice one as always Mogger, yes it must be so they have space to get everyone together and so then cancel the project, that way they can relish the disappointment on peoples faces, it can be the only reason!

Or they could be getting the offices sorted now, but plan to postpone FID until late 2026/early 2027, what with the current oil price, much better to wait until it gets over $70 before sanctioning and then only 3 years to wait for first oil, maybe even wait until it's been above $70 for a good 6-12months just to make sure.

Of course Navitas unit holders won't be happy, and the Israeli investors who put up the cash for RKH, won't be either, at least they will get their cash back with interest at the end of March.

I wouldn't want to be Sam, going cap in hand this time next year!!!!!

;-)

LTT

I was reading the Hatch report and I realised, (probably many already had this epiphany) that FIG over the life of Phase 1&2 of Sea Lion will receive $3.6B and there is a population of approx 3400, so that being the case, that's over $1m per person, man, woman and child over the life of Sea Lion!

AND, that is if they only complete Phase 1&2, if they do 3,4 & 5, or take a look at Isobel or tie backs close to Sea Lion, that number increases. It's crazy when you think about it. With those sort of numbers at stake, there is no way FIG are not going to sign off on the tax regime and the comfort letter, which puts the ball firmly back in Navitas' and RKH's court.

LTT

Why are folk so scatty that the sky is falling in! It's a down day in general, there is hardly a share that isn't in the red! I see from the responses Rolf is back, who is he insulting now! Praise be for the green filter!

If we were dropping on high volume, with everything heading up along with oil and gas prices, then I'd be more concerned, but as it is, it's just the usual churn, which is great if you can trade it, there must be a load of stocks that are worth a punt with the Orange Man spouting off as usual. Taking about China holding to the world to ransom with the rare earths, and yet forgetting to admit that he threw the first grenade !!!!! Crazy world. But isn't that the art of the deal, in Trumps rule book!

Best to switch off for the day, it will be calmer next week until the next grenade goes off!

LTT

Happy,

Navitas have a $16 break even cost on Shenandoah, when they get Shenandoah South on stream it add only 4K barrels a day. Sea Lion is their future, you are saying they plan to kick the can down the road, I say they cannot afford to. All the dots are being joined up and the picture is coming into focus, why would they throttle back now.

Any sustained drop to sub $50 would cause Shale production to drop off a cliff, not to mention other players cutting back on production. It’s just a merry go round of ups and downs, currently the media, commentators are on a downer, talking of oil gluts, peace in the world, dogs and cats living together! Then in a blink, they will be talking about underinvestment and a tightening market! Because volatility makes trading opportunities nobody actually wants oil to drop to $40 and stay there. IMHO

LTT

Happy,

Beacon and Navitas sanctioned Shenandoah on the back of oil prices of around $55-$60 prior to FID, in fact the year before sanction the oil price crashed down to the low $20 during covid. However, Beacon and Navitas didn't delay FID, they carried on regardless.

So, I would think they are unlikely to be put off but sub $60 oil with a break even of what is it, $27 a barrel. Plus they will not be FID-ing on the oil price of today, they will be thinking about 3 years down the line and 20 years after that! Not a knee jerk panic at the current oil price, and I thought your were intelligent enough to know this. Why are you scaremongering?

LTT

Oh to be a fly on that wall! Surely if they decide the fiscal regime for the project and the tax liability for RKH, then RKH would have to announce something as RKH have stated that the Tax liability could hold up FID! So how is that no longer being a issue, not RNS worthy! 🤔

Still, even if we don't know the outcome for todays meeting, there should be some signs.

LTT

Saying all that SML was tipped here some time ago, and a few folk have done well on it. Unfortunately I’m not one of them. Good luck either way, but this is the RKH board so let’s have more RKH chat, when of course there is something to chat about. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

LTT

JBCo,

No , the 53p shares or warrants haven’t been cashed in, the Placees cash is held in an account waiting for FID. Once FID is announced, the shares are issued and the warrants come into effect, but will only be worth cashing in if the share price breaks 80p.

Hope you haven’t tipped RKH anywhere without knowing what’s going on or where they are at!!!!!!! 😉

LTT

Yes Ovets,

I have to agree, I'd like to think there will be more to this FID announcement.

I'd like to see FID & project sanction; FPSO contract officially signed and thus the Aoka Mizu going on the 3 month countdown to being released; a further partner coming onboard to the tune of 15-20%, maybe an investment vehicle of some sort. Of course I'd much prefer a bigger player, but that could come later as we get closer to first oil.

Either way, I'd like to see someone else in the mix, mainly so they can go at the North and possibly the South Basin on multiple fronts, they would be crazy to leave Isobel and further targets until till 2035 when they have finished phase 5 on Sea Lion.

As Marlon said, ABCDEFGHIJ........ might be they way they do it, but ABCDE, ABC, ABC etc would be preferable. Once first oil and phase 2 is underway, get another rig down to start work on Isobel/Elaine.

LTT

Morning Nasty,

it could be someone, like a larger holder/II wanting to get some cash out, knowing with FID imminent, they will be securing a load of shares at 53p and, plus they will be odds on to being able to sell their warrants into the market as the share price gets above 80p on FID news.

All we need is some other II's buying into FID with a clear path to first oil and multiple of todays share price within 3 years for us to get above 80p. Of course there will be many PI's selling their 53p shares and some of their holding, £1 is a nice round number to sell at. It will be interesting to see if we breach £1 or just churn around that area for a while at FID, whilst we wait for further news on the FPSO, Rig, boots hitting the ground. They won't be able to keep things quiet, and hopefully we will have some Falkland Islanders on the BB sharing news on the hotel breaking ground; the Temp Dock work starting; new build houses, etc. Fingers crossed.

Interesting times are ahead.

LTT

▪ Field development plan (FDP) –

“technical” approval was received

from the Falkland Islands Government (FIG) for phases 1 & 2.

▪ Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) based on the development

plan, post public hearing, in compliance with FIG regulations.

▪ The comprehensive arrangement with the Falkland Islands

Government (FIG) regarding regulatory matters (including taxation,

fiscal stability, transfer pricing and more) is in its final stages.

▪ An international bank is leading the project finance (in a similar

structure to Shenandoah and the syndication model). Total expected

project financing (senior debt) is approx. USD 1 billion (100%).

▪ Agreements with key suppliers and contractors have been signed or

expected to be signed soon:

▪ Lease agreement of a Floating Production Storage and

Offloading (FPSO) facility

▪ Long lead items agreements

▪ Agreements with a drilling contractor and supportive services

vendor

▪ Subsea pipelines agreements

The above is from the July Navitas presentation in English. It clearly shows what has been done, what is in progress and what needs to be done.

Tomorrow’s meeting will be all about taxation,

fiscal stability, transfer pricing, etc. IMHO We should get an RNS on our tax liability as this would be material news, but as it’s a closed meeting, they could keep it quiet as it wouldn’t be in the public domain 🤔.

Either way, with Shenandoah firing on all cylinders, I’m starting to get a little excited.

LTT

Nasty,

I think ChatGPT has it a bit wrong, the FDP on phase 1 & 2 has already been signed off I believe, what we are waiting for is the "letter of comfort" and the Tax liability of RKH's to get sorted, then the International Bank can release/start the ball rolling on the $1B, although again, I believe from what Navitas and RKH have been saying, the Bank has got plenty of positive feedback from investors, Israeli institutions and other banks, etc.

So to my mind, everything hinges on the 15th of October to start the topple of the dominos. With FIG taking out the loan, planning for the new dock and the Squid season closing early again with a disappointing catch, it has to be odds on that the Comfort letter and Tax is going to be signed off.

LTT

Marunam2,

If I could vote that up twice I would ☺️ that is fabulous news, and as you say, another BIG box ticked on the road to FID Sea Lion.

Many thanks

LTT

The only issue if we are waiting for Q3 results from Navitas, is they are usually released in the middle of November. Of course they will know where they are at long before then, but the Auditors will have to sign off and that might take some time, as I say, historically it's been mid to late November.

LTT

Don't ask how I stumbled across this, went down a rabbit hole after receiving an upstream article about the FPSO Kikeh coming to end of contract in 2028, as the field in Malaysia might take on smaller FPSO.

"PORT STANLEY -- The Diamond Offshore semisub Ocean Guardian has started drilling the Sea Lion prospect in the North Falkland basin license PL032 for operator Rockhopper Exploration.

Well 14/10-B is being drilled to an estimated target depth of around 2,700 m (8,858 ft). Rockhopper expects the program to take 34 days to complete.

This is the second in a series of wells to be drilled by the rig in the North and South Falklands basins. The first well delivered a gas discovery of questionable size on the Liz structure for Desire Petroleum.

Rockhopper says it also intends to take the rig’s fourth slot to drill its Ernest prospect.

4/16/2010

I imagine a couple of years ago, many folk on here would have wished they had never got involved with Desire, RKH, FOGL, Borders! How times change eh!

LTT

Oscar,

“Buy more Rockhopper if Navitas delays the Sea Lion FID to 1H2026 estimated”

I hope it doesn’t get knocked back into Q1 2026! I realise it’s a back stop, but even I would start to have some concerns if that came to pass, it would knock back first oil to mid/late 2028 and I would not be contemplating buying more!

The Q3 Shenandoah production numbers for me will be important. There is currently no reason to think the production from Shenandoah is anything but on point or at the very least in the ballpark of predictions. Once those numbers are in, the International Bank should be in a position to say yay or nay, once FIG have sorted the tax regime for Navitas and RKH tax liabilities.

However, before that we have Navitas’ Q3 results, Navitas meeting, last Exco before FIG dissolve and head into purdah and the Argentina election, all before the end of Oct/early Nov. The big one for me will be the release of Navitas’ Q3 results, but they might not come until they have their meeting, they may release at the same time. 🤔

LTT

Of course Mirasol,

I’m not questioning that, Navitas can FID when they like once they have all the approvals ticked off. What I am questioning is would they want to, when the Legislative Assembly has been dissolved? The sanctioning of a new oil province and nobody is around or available to make comment, with the world media crying out for a story? 🤔

I was just pondering out loud, and maybe you are right, Navitas might go ahead during the dissolved government, but would it be the right thing to do.

A bit like asking a builder to quote on the extension, you’ve agreed the quote and said let’s book in a start date when we are back from holiday. Then you come back from your hols and half of the house is demolished and the builders are having coffee in what’s left of your front room, boots up on the coffee table!

Yeah, you agreed on the work, but didn’t expect them to crack on while you were way.

Of course it could all be a moot point if they announce before. But as I say, hoping for the best, but taking a pragmatic view.

LTT

Well, although I would love to see FID before purdah, with all the ducks lined up nicely, I am also resided to the fact that, "By the end of 2025" means they could announce anytime up to the 31st of December, which is fine. I'd rather they get everything sorted properly, to Navitas', RKH and FIG's mutual satisfaction with a clear road ahead to first oil, than them stop/starting because, "Oh, we hadn't thought about that, we need a external review!" Kicking the timeline to first oil further and further away.

If anything, I feel that FID is now most likely to be after the election. I cannot imagine there will be big changes to the Legislative Assembly, plus they may want to announce such a big event, that will change the face of the Falklands Islands as a united force, not to rush into it before purdah, or have it happen during purdah, which might be a bit strange as there would be no-one to speak about it to the media! Imagine Navitas announce FID and Project sanction, a HUGE event that will change life on the islands forever for everyone, but no-one on the Legislative Assembly can comment about it!

So as usual, hoping for the best, but being prepared for nothing much happening between now and December, then everything should kick off, with FID and Project sanction in one go IMHO.

LTT

Buzz, did you watch Serica’s presentation? They were asked that very question and it is out of their hands, Bluewater the owner have plans for the Aoka on the Sea Lion field, they did the transaction for the tax credits and the North Sea assets and the gas plant, the Lancaster Field came as a bonus but it will be abandoned Q3 2026, maybe sooner if Bluewater starts the 3month release clause.

Also the Lancaster Field is on borrowed time as it is, water cut increasing, oil price dropping. Bluewater did a deal with Prax to extend the production life to get to the point when Sea Lion gets sanctioned, they will be over the moon to get it off for a refit and on a 10 year contract, not a rolling contract than either party can give 3 months notice on.

LTT

Honestly Buzz?

Why would Navitas go to the trouble of securing their funding and getting RKH to sort theirs only to fail at the final hurdle?

Also, why are Navitas going down the route of having an International Bank corner-stoning the $1B? The original tac was to get vendor financing, maybe a partner or oil trader finance, maybe a mixture of the three. However, they are no longer going down that expensive route.

I feel it’s in the bag with regards to $1B, they are just waiting for FIG to sort out the financial framework/regime and RKH tax liability then they will go for FID and project sanction in one go as they did with Shenandoah. Then the contracts will be announced for the FPSO and the building contracts on the islands to name just a few. IMHO

LTT