The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks Tornadotony,
I think the thing that is overvalued now is the USD, and history says you can bank on this devaluing over the coming years. For start it is not in the US interest for this to happen/stay this way. Another fall out of the irrational behaviour of its Reserve Bank (and of course the other reserve banks mostly just follow). The performance of Australias Reserve Bank has been so bad it is now under Independent review, which should have happened a decad e or 2 again. https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/independent-review-for-rba-as-chalmers-overrules-lowe-20220617-p5aum1
Full of political appointees, economists etc...
Goldman Sachs has now hired our ex Financie Minister, who has just retired on full parliamentary pension? Snouts in the trough, conflict of interest etc etc.
amazing goings on, and its all above board, LOL
the gnome
NOmad
If you think drilling 100,000 meters, getting assays back after qa/qc (think 3-4 months), compiling, intergarting with geology, converting to a indicated resource and THEN feeding this forward into a FS is over quickly, think again.
Regardess, the timelines communicated are very clear, and reasonable cosnidering the variables in play.
•"West Africa. Work is continuing towards the delivery of the Doropo pre-feasibility study ("PFS") by the end of the
year. The field programme has seen the completion of more than 100,000 metres of drilling which is expected to
convert the majority of the Inferred Resource to the Indicated Resource category and support the completion of
the PFS by the end of Q4 2022."
the gnome
Nor a bad quarter for CEY. Solid. Mving towards being predictable.
A lot of other businesses are not even close. BlackRock is breaking the wrong records with $US1.7 trillion loss
BlackRock is used to breaking records. The world’s largest asset manager was the first firm to break through $US10 trillion of assets under management. But the bigger they are, the harder they fall. And this year BlackRock chalked up another record: the largest amount of money lost by a single firm over a six-month period. In the first half of this year, it lost $US1.7 trillion of clients’ money.
Well, well, the money gurus had a bad 6 months at the office.
The top major Super fund in Oz about 4 % net of fees and other small costs, over last 12 months
good luck to all, and go gold, and CEY
deepjoy,
My bet is the US$ will weaken, if not appreciably.
Free money has been very expensive to all, and just how expensive and to who is still being studied.
The roots of poverty are complex, but the study isn’t a one-off in documenting a link between transfer payments and worse outcomes. A 2018 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association examined the diet quality of food-stamp beneficiaries from 2003 to 2014, a period in which average benefits increased more than 50%. Similar low-income people who didn’t get food stamps ate more healthily than those who did. The non-food-stamp group consumed significantly fewer sugar-sweetened beverages, and their diets improved more over time.
Transfer payments ballooned during the pandemic as Democrats argued that they were needed to prevent millions of Americans from falling into poverty. Republicans in Congress put up little resistance, at least while Donald Trump was president. Congress spent a total of $800 billion merely on stimulus checks during the pandemic.
The handouts induced people to spend more and also reduced the incentive to work, which fanned inflation. Now there’s evidence that the payments could have reduced personal well-being as well. A tome could be written on all of the government mistakes during the pandemic.
One lesson for Congress seems clear: Never again send out cash with no strings attached.
MEANWHILE: Many U.S.-based tourists are spending on luxury goods, fine wines and high-end accommodations. Others say they are planning additional return trips overseas to take advantage of the potential savings. Traveling to Europe also offers Americans a brief respite from the impact of rising inflation, since the dollar’s strength has helped to offset some of the higher costs in Europe.
Who benefits, and for how long .... it will not stay this way forever!
best
the gnome
This is a great time to be buying commodities and gold, perhaps not the bottom, might be another 5% down, but then...they will bounce back up...20-30% (Aupast $2000) is my 2 bobs worth ...so more oddds onthe upside
the gnome
Thanks Cowichan
Steve Keen is a great voice to listen to to understand the shortcomings of the economicists advice to the politicians, and the central bankers "strategy" and models from which the strategy is derived.
"How fast can a magic money tree grow?
When British Prime Minister Theresa May said there was no magic money tree she was wrong. There is, but you still have to look after it. What happens if you take the money off the tree too quickly, and give it to the wrong people? Is that what’s happened over the last two years? This week Phil Dobbie asks Steve Keen if there’s an optimum level of expansion to the money supply (through government spending) and how do we claw back from it if we have overspent?"
His weekly podcast is a great listen
https://debunking.podbean.com/
the gnome
Thanks Sotolo
The traders who do the manipulation are reasonably expert, and I believe they have deep pockets of OPM's. They rarely trade on the one hit principle, but they often use the "creation of SP momentum". BUt of course there are many ways to skin a cat
Churning: When a trader works with other investors' money, they may execute an excessive number of trades in order to increase trade commissions. Even though the trader does not necessarily make the investor more money, they generate a lot of commission for themselves.
Ramping: An investor can ramp a market when they own a lot of money or a lot of a certain security. They can either sell their entire stock at once or buy a security with all their available capital. By doing this, they can cause prices to spike in a favorable direction.
Wash Trading: This is a method of market manipulation where a large investor would simultaneously place buy and sell orders on an asset. This registers as tremendous trading volume, which draws the attention of other investors.
Bear Raiding: Bear raiding is the trader's attempt to push down the price of a security in order to cover a short position. This is normally executed when the trader believes the price will not fall down in their favor, prompting them to manipulate the market.
Rampproofing: This is a mechanism used to ignore any public information that was published with the purpose of misleading the market. Publishers of this information tend to hold high stakes in the market.
Pools: These are illegal agreements between investors, where one of the pool investors is given full control of the pooled funds. This is illegal since that one investor normally holds a tremendous amount of power that could be used to manipulate the market.
Pump and Dump: These schemes are common among small investors. Communication channels would be established where a leading individual would signal a large group of investors to invest in one specific security. When they all work together, they can cause a single stock to rally significantly within seconds.
Cross-Market Manipulation: This is a complex process that relates to how a trader would trade in one market with the objective of causing movement in a correlated market. This activity requires thorough knowledge of a market and substantial reserves of capital.
Quote Stuffing: This is done with high-frequency trading bots that have the capacity to execute immense trades in milliseconds. This gives them the ability to flood markets and capitalize on the slow movement of human traders. Although using these bots is not illegal, they may not be used to manipulate the market.
Stock Bashing: This is a form of financial manipulation that is done through marketing. Stock bashers would publish false information about a company that would cause its stock price to tumble. These investors then capitalize on the downward movement by shorting the company's stock.
and so on, and so forth ...
Thanks Cowichan
Worth remembering that Chrysos measures the total amount of gold in a sample, which is not necessarily the amount of gold you make money on. The difference is mapped by the Geomet model, which is a model of metallurgical factors such as the amount of gold recovered by a certain leach, at a certain size fraction, and how long this recovery takes. Sadly, this model is generally derived a minute fraction of the orebody, and is where predicted profitable models turn out to be financial mediocrity or disasters. Recalling the most common reasons for failure in a project
Geology, resources and reserves estimation
>Inadequate attention to local variability
>Statistics and modelling override common sense
Metallurgical testwork, sampling and scale-up
>Metallurgical domains within the orebody not understood (Geomet)
>Testing is done on unrepresentative composites (Geomet)
>Failure to identify process contaminants
>Inability to handle ore types as per mining schedule
>Process water chemistry differs with lab
Chrysos does not solve these issues and does not appreciably lower the risk of project failure. In fact relying on such sophistacated lab set up (designed in a developed world for operation in a developed world), with huge cap costs and very significant operating costs in a developing country is an "interesting" step. There are far cheaper and more viable answers to the problem
the gnome
Jurors were told that JP Morgan has been ripping off the gold and silver markets for years.
Lucy Jennings, a prosecutor with the Justice Department's fraud section, said, "This case is about a criminal conspiracy inside one of Wall Street's largest banks," adding, "To make more money for themselves, they decided to cheat."
Three former JPM employees are in the firing line, including veteran head of precious metals, Michael Nowak, gold trader Gregg Smith and Jeffrey Ruffo, an executive director who specialized in hedge fund sales. They are all charged with racketeering conspiracy as well as conspiring to commit price manipulation, wire fraud, commodities fraud and spoofing from 2008 to 2016.
Spoofing was banned by law in 2010. It involves vast orders that traders cancel before they can be executed in a bid to push prices in the direction they want to make their actual trades profitable.
Smith, a lead gold trader, was said to have executed 38,000 layering sequences over the years, or about 20 a day, prosecutors said in filings. Nowak himself primarily traded options, but he would dip into the futures market to hedge those positions. He tried his hand at layering in September 2009, according to filings, and went on to use the technique some 3,600 times. Ruffo is alleged to have told Smith where he needed the market in order to fulfill orders involving at least two of his hedge fund clients. Moore Capital Management and Tudor Investment Corporation, according to court filings....
If you think gold looks so weak, can I suggest looking at the below link, not long won't hurt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFURta4KqY0
division in the land of the free is at an all time high, the mighty USD, built on ... BS?
Just when they need a leader there are obvious questions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFURta4KqY0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toMcQVfLCyQ
Sad really, reminds me of the fable about the emperor's new clothes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ym0u-KweN4
the gnome
And now for something very off topic... or very on topic?
Something odd is happening to Earth’s magnetic field. Over the last 200 years, it’s been slowly weakening and shifting its magnetic north pole (where a compass points, not to be confused with the geographic north pole) from the Canadian Arctic toward Siberia (its not Putins fault?). In recent decades, however, that slow shift south has quickened — reaching speeds upwards of 30 miles per year (48 kilometers per year !). Could we be on the brink of a geomagnetic reversal, in which the magnetic north and south poles swap places?
The world experienced a few centuries of apocalyptic conditions 42,000 years ago, triggered by a reversal of the Earth’s magnetic poles combined with changes in the Sun’s behaviour. That’s the key finding of our new multidisciplinary study, published in Science.
This last major geomagnetic reversal triggered a series of dramatic events that have far-reaching consequences for our planet. They read like the plot of a horror movie: the ozone layer was destroyed, electrical storms raged across the tropics, solar winds generated spectacular light shows (auroras), Arctic air poured across North America, ice sheets and glaciers surged and weather patterns shifted violently.
During these events, life on earth was exposed to intense ultraviolet light, Neanderthals and giant animals known as megafauna went extinct, while modern humans sought protection in caves.
https://theconversation.com/earths-magnetic-field-broke-down-42-000-years-ago-and-caused-massive-sudden-climate-change-155580
It's been 780,000 years since this happened — and some scientists say that Earth's magnetic poles are long overdue for a switch.
We use artificial satellites for navigation, television broadcasting, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring and communication of all kinds. Without the protection of a magnetic field, these satellites could be seriously disrupted by solar wind or cosmic rays colliding with electronic circuits. A weak magnetic field in the South Atlantic Ocean, known as the “South Atlantic Anomaly,” already adversely affects satellites and could be an indication of what is to come. Certainly some fo the animals who use magnetic fields to navigate will have to adjust
best
the gnome
John Bolton, a former United States ambassador to the United Nations and ex-White House national security adviser, has admitted in an interview he had helped plan coups in foreign countries.
Speaking to CNN anchor Jake Tapper, however, Bolton suggested Trump was not competent enough to pull off a “carefully planned coup d’etat”, later adding: “As somebody who has helped plan coups d’etat – not here but, you know, [in] other places – it takes a lot of work. And that’s not what he [Trump] did.”
Tapper asked Bolton which attempts he was referring to.
“I’m not going to get into the specifics,” Bolton said, before mentioning Venezuela. “It turned out not to be successful. Not that we had all that much to do with it but I saw what it took for an opposition to try and overturn an illegally elected president and they failed,” he said.
In 2019, Bolton as NSA publicly supported Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido’s call for the military to back his effort to remove socialist President Nicolas Maduro, arguing that Maduro’s re-election was illegitimate. Ultimately Maduro remained in power.
“I feel like there’s other stuff you’re not telling me [beyond Venezuela],” the CNN anchor said, prompting a reply from Bolton: “I’m sure there is.”
I'm sure there is as well
the gnome
Spoonington,
Nasty stuff. Germany should have stayed with nuclear. In fact nuclear is the most obvious and fastest way to deliver the power needs the worlds population needs. 7.75 billion people and increasing every day, a lot of the greens don't factor in energy equality into their spreadsheets.
V hot global inflationary picture as US consumer price growth runs at a 41-year-high, increasing the pressure on central banks to lift interest rates and heightening the risk of recession.
The central banks of the Philippines and Singapore raised interest rates on Thursday, following supersized moves on Wednesday by Canada, South Korea, and New Zealand.
US President Joe Biden last month blamed fuel price inflation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (its better if he does not talk!)
The delicate balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve is mirrored by the worsening inversion of the US yield curve, a classic barometer of recession.
The US 10-year bond rate was at 2.95 per cent on Thursday, and the two-year bond rate 3.19 per cent. When short-dated yields exceed longer-dated ones, the market is implying that the imminent tightening of financial conditions will erode future growth, requiring a return to monetary easing.
A short dash of inflation or a protracted battle, with plenty of aftershocks? Paul Krugman coming clean (finally)..."But, of course, we don’t know that. In fact, given the wide discrepancies in economic data, economic pundits (including me) have unusual freedom to believe whatever they want to believe." and get paid for whatever they want to write, right or wrong.
Go gold!
the gnome
The good times appear to be ending as Germany reported its first monthly trade deficit since 1991. Energy imports are the main explanation with Energy markets mostly set prices in dollars, so the weaker euro is raising euro-denominated costs for German manufacturers. Whats happening in the southern countries in Europe is interesting, and mayhem as usual in Italy
The Japanese yen has tumbled this year, breaking through Tokyo’s red line of 125 yen to the dollar and now hovering near 137. After thinking a weaker yen might help the economy, Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda and other officials are trying to talk the yen into stability. They’re having mixed success.
Joe Biden and the Democratic Party are now realizing how complicated the private economy actually is, and how easy it is to wreck it, and proceeding to wreck it, but of course that does not effect the vaue of the USD?
The European Central Bank is even less aggressive in fighting inflation. It stopped net asset purchases only last month and says it won’t start reducing its balance sheet until 2024, reactions take much longer in Europe when they have to go through endless faceless committees, and then they get to Brussels?
The dollar-euro exchange rate is the most important in the world, as the late Nobel economist Robert Mundell observed. When the rate starts to shift, companies must spend ever greater sums hedging against exchange risks, can be deterred from job-creating investments, and risk currency mismatches when they borrow. All of this weighs on financial stability, and on the Main Street economy.
Hard to believe the USD is going to stay rock steady through the mayhem, and that includes the mayhem within its own shores
the gnome
Well we have high grade veins in the open pit AS WELL as below the current and planned infrastructure, which is a pleasant positive surprise! The 54m @15 gpt Au (MY MOUTH IS STILL WATERING!), is part of Horace Deeps which has dimensions of 800m strike length and 200m down dip extent (MOUTH NOW WATERING AGAIN!) and about 150m below mine infrastructure, and is OPEN IN ALL DIRECTIONS if I understood what he said. IT APPEARS AS INFERRED RESOURCE, AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL POSSIBLY 2028. WHAT A LOVELY OREBODY TO HAVE IN YOUR BACK POCKET!!
LOOK FORWARD TO MORE DRILLING, ADN GOOD TO HEAR IT STRAIGHT FROM THE GEOLOGISTS MOUTH AT CENTAMIN. MAY HE SPEAK MORE OFTEN, PERHAPS WITH A BETTER AUDIO, AND A FEW CHOICE DGMS NEXT TIME
the gnome
Unjustified? How dare thou?
Can you please read Exorbitant Privilege (Eichengreen) , 4 times, ...
The UK's mindless attempt to rejoin the gold standard at the overvalued, pre-war rate. Vindictive French domestic politics and the hyperinflations in continental Europe. Vindictive French attempts to humiliate the Germans over reparations. Bank runs in Germany and Austria. French and American attempts to bend the rules of the Gold Standard for their own national interests. Wild swings in capital flows from Europe to the US and back again. And the cataclysmic days of 1931 when the whole system collapsed under the weight of banking crises and currency contagion - in ways very similar to Asia in 1997.
After the crash, we get down to the Great Depression and who fared the best. This part is much shorter since it isn't as complicated. Basically, those countries that devalued quickly and went the free market route fared much better than those that didn't. Sweden was a star performer. The US can be found towards the back of the class. Dear old Blighty gets full marks for going solo, although more recent evidence shows this had more to do with throwing in the towel than playing with new ideas.
Strangely there's little mention of Japan. Nippon took a beating in the late 1920s while the yen remained fixed to gold. Once sterling devalued, the Japanese followed suit. The recovery was swift and full blooded. But the central bank forgot to stop the printing press once growth returned and ended up fighting hyperinflation in the late 1930s. So Eichengreen's line that giving up was the great panacea isn't quite as true as he'd have you believe....
and so on and so forth
we dont learn
we dont learn
we dont learn
etc
the gnome