Member Info for goldgnome

There are some amazing things that happen if you keep fit and mentally active and engaged and in a positive mind frame.

A friend of mine was diagnosed with agressive Cancer in 1999, and after being hit with every pharamceutical product under the sun, and some enormous chemotherapy, the good doctors said to him, "We suggest you dont spend any more money on treatment, we are making no progress. So inessence you are paying us to kill you. We suggest you go home and enojoy your last 3 months"

Well home he went, At 40 he thought there was no way he was going to throw the towel in. gave his corporate job up, adopted new diet, new mental wellness routines, stress went out the window, took up exrcise, and mapped himself from a victim to a survivor, and finally to a thriver ! Still alive, and the good doctors cant find a cancer cell in his body. He works with the terminally ill in several hospitals and makes the most of every day

Good luck Mr Bond

The Gnome !

I put a post out which seemed to have been immediately censored, somewhat predictability. Do your homework on Stephen Miran, economist extraordinaire, reality is another world. Woopos ...

President Trump says trade wars are easy to win. Investors (reality is another world) think otherwise, and on Wednesday Mr. Trump decided maybe investors are right. After a flight from U.S. assets and a rout in the bond market, Mr. Trump announced a pause for 90 days on the worst of his “liberation” tariffs on most countries, China excepted.

Good luck Trump. You have not got anyones confidence.

As for the other advisor ....Elon Musk took another shot at Peter Navarro on Tuesday over tariffs, calling President Donald Trump's top adviser on trade and manufacturing a "moron" and "dumber than a sack of bricks."

Coldnt agree more

Oh Dear, the Presidents new clothes do look a bit shabby

As for Chinia ...Dont poke the bear, as they used to say

Unless you have a well thought out plan B and C

Nothing seems well thought out at all ....

good luck,

the gnome

Interesting times? Well in these situations all the "Panic Birds" make their losses by flying off (selling up), and sitting in the cheap seats in the stands (save money), counting their losses (real) and waiting for the prices to go up again when they dive in and buy again, and all going well make a marginal return and keep ahead of inflation. Of course, the other thing that happens is that those with stop loss strategies, stop their losses and auto sell as programmed, and those that are managing OTHER PEOPLES MONEY, follow their mandates rigidly, and sell.

The smarter money knows that what goes up quickly can go down quickly, and the reverse is also true, what goes down quickly can go up quickly, especially when what is causing the ups and downs is a "negotiator" extraordinaire, and not to mention a narcistic lunatic with presently almost unlimited power.

I am more of an investor than a speculator, so I watch what other investors of different sorts have done over the last 10 years. Brief notes, as life is always shorter than we think

With over 36,000 metric tons in reserves—about one-fifth of all the gold ever mined—central banks know something we should too: Gold is the ultimate safety net. Since 2009, these institutions have been net buyers of the precious metal, and in the past decade alone, they’ve scooped up one out of every eight ounces produced globally.

Which countries have been piling into gold in the public space ... Russia, (1230 t) China (1210 t), Turkey (450 t) in last 10 Years, we won’t forget India and the Middle East (jets regularly flying in and out of Harare and other destinations buying artisinal gold, which quietly disappears, of course, wink wink)

Gold backed ETFs are in demand, up 26% Malaysia, 14% China, 12% India, Italy 8% and ... 4% in North America

State of the markets? skittish to say the least ...A wild stock-market swing based on false information added $2.4 trillion in value and erased it almost as quickly Monday morning. played out in just over half an hour, all based on misleading reports that said President Trump was considering a 90-day pause to implementing tariffs. LOL The Panic Birds flutter as the hot air machine picks up wind

I am a hold/acquirer investor

best

the gnome

I would bet the orange man has no idea what he is doing, nor his advisors. The financial system he/they is/are playing with is a complex, non linear, unstable n-dimensional (numebr of variables) network, whose many moving and non linearly interacting parts, create such further interactions that roll through the system almost randomly to produce outcomes which are simply impossible to predict. For those requiring further insights...https://www.exploring-economics.org/en/orientation/complexity-economics/

Perhaps I am a bit harsh on the dear chap, sure he has ideas, but to think that they are well formed, or even 100% right is delusional. If future actions were (and are) so predictable, then

1. Why weren't (can't) future crashes and spikes have been avoided or better managed?

2. Why can so many learned people get it consistently wrong (and very few get lucky once)?

He has added a spike into the unstable complex system, and how this is going to work through and what the outcome(s) will be, no one knows...

When uncertainty is created, then

hot air deflates (and isnt there about a around),

necessities keep on getting needed,

good businesses with decent moats continue (and some even sieze the opportunity of siezing smaller companies who find it difficult to scale in times of uncertainty)...and so on

End of the world, I dont think so, ... just another day in the life of a dying empire. Like a dying battery, gives off erratic pulses of energy, and then finally kaput.

Lets hope a better system results.

good luck punters and investors.

best

the gnome

dear mrbond

yes, some of us never growup, and keep chasing what lives at the end of a rainbow!

i have just seen alluvial gold that looks a lot like kellogs corn flakes, co****, angular and large ... and the owner has asked me if i want to work with him on alluvial gold (apparently i know thing or 2 and rumours do get around)...i said yes, salivating at what i might find under the alluvial gold, and on the story goes...cant keep a good man down.

amazing stuff happening and great to be alive eh?, stocks up now as the "tariff bogey" pushed stocks down ... joh bogle lead me please... supposedly. the israelis bomb and starve the crap out of the people in gaza ... but its a ceasefire, ... lies mount and are told more boldy than usual (high hurdle) ..the truth about the ukraine war .. gimme a break... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html

another appeal for the truth to the murder of jfk that happened 60 years ago ... isnt there anything new on tv to watch?

i personally would not be too stressed if the internet of the world crashed tonight ... i would be relaxed, comfortable, a few gold bars under the bed, car in the garage, a good football team to watch on the weekend, a library full of books i find hard to read but would dearly love to, a wife who is a great cook and a better friend...and so on and so forth

hard to bring things into perspective these days, ... damn rainbows

feel sorry for the younger generation and i can understand how anxiety proliferates in their life .... they do not deserve this mess

with regards,

the gnome

Harare is the capital of Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia, bless Cecils soul ... if he ever had one.

The country is dripping with gold and of course I have an interest in the yellow stuff, and love finding more, so you can bet I will be having a very close look, but probably move on, as there are a lot of serious hurdles to jump ...

But the older chaps are behaving badly (again, recall Mugabe LOL) , settiing appalling examples to the younger generation. All want to hang on to power for more than their natural or legal term, or I should say their "supporters and family" want them to stay in power so the rorting of the tax system to very effectively rob the poor to pay the rich continues unabated. Their own form of warped capitalism and even more warped democracy

They have been trying to organise protests, but no one can afford petrol as the economy is that bad, and every one is not interested unless they get some money, and so the old elite has to pay the poor to turn up to protest in the streets on their behalf, and so there is some recompense to the poor from those who should know and do a lot better. Then the elite have to further pay the media to turn up and video the protests, by the poor on behalf of the ruling elite. Its tough to be in the elite these days LOL

If you think it is a strange world you are not far wrong.

$3086 and climbing nicely. Seriously would you trust any of the elected governments to protect their fiat currency, when ther e is a solid 100 years of almost monotonis loss of value....

stick to gold and Anglo, some nice numers and I enjoyed the divi....bought a new boat ...

best of luck

the gnome

Henri de Saint-Simon (1760-1825), a French intellectual, was one of the founding fathers of socialism. Saint-Simon wanted to forge a “scientific understanding of society” (thats a red flag and a bridge too far?) which he would use to eliminate poverty and inequality by centrally planning the economy through the Parisian Banking Houses.

Centrally planning through the banks, LOL, obviously the dear man knew nothing about who runs and controls the banks. The economists would be into this paddlinig along in their parallel universe, where reality is missing as it does not fit into mathemetical formulae or favoured predictable paths, but of course we now have behavioural economics to the rescue. Behavioral economics is grounded in empirical observations of human behavior, which have demonstrated that people do not always make what neoclassical economists consider the “rational” or “optimal” decision, even if they have the information and the tools available to do so. There have been many tomes about the irrationality of human behaviour, and we can see this at work 24/7 now.

The Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, first published in 1841, is often cited as the best book ever written about market psychology (and behavioural economics LOL), ... the concerning thing as that the delusions and madness conintues unabated, and as the madness of individual is a tad hard to predict, the madness of crowds is an order of magniture (or 4) more difficult... and hence escapes the predictability of behavioural economics.

What is predictable ...GOLD

Period

Approximate Total Return

Since Jan 1 2025

17.5%

Last 5 years

85.6%

Last 10 years

152.1%

Last 20 years

728.9%

Last 40 years

540.4%

Last 100 years

5,800%

and what sayu ye abiout the value of the fiat of choice?

goodnight from Harare

the gnome

Do gold prices respond more to uncertainty shocks at the zero lower bound?☆

Authors

Peng Chen

Xinru Miao

Kai-Hong Tee c

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104057

We use an Interacted-VAR to examine the non-linear effects of uncertainty shocks on gold prices.

The response of gold prices to uncertainty shocks is much stronger and more consistent at the ZLB.

The regime-dependent effects are shown not to be driven by the business cycle.

This paper lends a further understanding of the interaction between economic uncertainty and monetary policy.

There is a lot of undertsanding in China abvout the value of gold,, and especially behaviour in "velly" interesting times. Especially times of uncertainty. Trump os blowing up a storm, and may he blow forever (tongue in cheek)

the gnome

I think there is a realisation that there is significant uncertainty about near everything at the moment, and with Trump in and his interesting advisors, likely to continue and who knows where and how this will end (Trump clearly has no idea), but one has got good reason to doubt things will stay the same as pre-Trump, some for very good reasons. The sail has come out of Tesla (incredible amount of hot air that only Wall Street would believe, they will believe anything if there is a buck in it for themselves, some things don’t and won’t change),

The AI game continues, and my money is on the Chinese to win this just as they have won the Electric Vehicle waltz. The hard part is the energy consumption (and where are all the climate change gurus now, arguing against AI because of this?) ... Going to be an interesting world, who is going to be able to distinguish human ONLY (rare commodity), human influenced or pure AI? Who is going to believe what? Who is going to be able to flood the social consciousness with several different supportive views of a topic ...brave new world.

The good thing about gold is that they can’t make it, cant destroy it, and can’t wipe it off everyone’s primitive mind ... Of course, they can try and control the market LOL

regards

The Gnome

By the time Franklin Roosevelt entered office in 1933, the interest payments alone were draining the treasury of gold; and because the treasury had only $4.2 billion in gold it was obvious there would be no way to pay the principal when it became due in 1938, not to mention meet expenses and other debt obligations. These other debt obligations were substantial. Ever since the 1890s the Treasury had been gold short and had financed this deficit by making new bond issues to attract gold for paying the interest of previous issues. The result was that by 1933 the total debt was $22 billion and the amount of gold needed to pay even the interest on it was soon going to be insufficient.

Well one we go , the debt is a "bit " more, but the game remains the same, but with some twists

US Gold Reserves: A Legacy of Theft and Lies

The gold reserve was never supposed to be a static, untouchable hoard of the US federal government, as it is now. It was supposed to be there for Americans and other users of dollars who traded in their dollars for gold. Gold was supposed to flow in and out. Then, the US government slammed the doors of the federal gold vaults shut and declared “the gold is all ours forever.”

Like most everything else the US government “owns,” the gold in the US gold reserves is there due to many years of lies, gaslighting, and deception. The gold is there because the US regime defaulted on its debts and reneged on its promises to back dollars in gold.

If a true auditing team is ever allowed to actually examine the US regime’s gold, it will be examining the evidence of crimes from long ago. The auditors will be counting the gold stolen from our ancestors to enrich the state and its friends.

the gnome

Compensation for incompetence, great idea I am off to the US for my holiday?!

Glad there is resolution and compensation, sounds so ridiculous. In West Africa this sort of thing could spark a Coup de Tat or a serious spat, but we are more civilised?

$3015 as I write , underpriced, compared with ... what is coming from this company

best for the weekend,

the gnome

Whats going on in the UK, the system sounds a tad strained if not busted

London Gold Market Defaults on Physical Gold Deliveries

...Cyrille Jubert

A few days ago, one of the world’s largest refineries informed its customers that the London warehouses were empty and that the London gold market was dry of liquidity.

Confirmation last Wednesday: The Bank of England published the information that it would be able to deliver the gold currently awaiting delivery only in 4 to 8 weeks.

Background

Donald Trump had announced, even before his election, his intention to impose customs tariffs on all imports. Even without specifics on this subject, many investors saw this as an inevitable increase in the price of precious metals.

Since the announcement of Trump’s victory, the COMEX has been facing exceptionally high Gold delivery demands.This required a veritable airlift to transfer 393 tonnes of gold from the LBMA’s London warehouses to the COMEX vaults in New York, bringing the New York gold stocks to 926 tonnes.

This movement emptied the “liquidity” available in gold in the Bank of England’s vaults.

Default

For years, Andrew Maguire has been pointing out that the official rules of the "Exchange For Physical" (EFP) between the COMEX and the London Bullion Market require delivery within 14 days. He even gave a presentation on this subject in the House of Commons, thus challenging the government.

The fact that the BoE can only deliver gold before 4 to 8 weeks is, in a way, equivalent to a "default". The term "failure" may seem too blunt, but the reality remains the same.

The BoE has officially asked other central banks to lend it their national gold, which is supposed to be stored in its vaults. (Reuters)...and on we go....

With tariffs coming and going, DOGE on the ramage, Judges overturning deportation orders, who are then ignored. It does ask the question as to who is in control, and how will it end. Even the portugues are getting cold feet about ordring F35's ...."The world has changed ... and this ally of ours ... could bring limitations to use, maintenance, components, and everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and used in all types of scenarios,"

interesting times

the gnome

Goldman Sachs analysts said they see upside risk to their $3,100 an ounce base case scenario for gold at the end of 2025 on U.S. policy uncertainty and elevated central bank buying since the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022. The bank added it believes this will be the case even after a potential Russia-Ukraine cease fire, given the precedent set by the freezing of Russian assets.

Given gold’s safe-haven status, it should play a small role in most investors’ portfolios as a strategic hedge.

“With the heightened market volatility we are seeing, the case to own some gold remains compelling,” Ciampaglia added.

Longer-term drivers are still at play, too. Central-bank demand has been crucial to gold’s gains as banks diversify their reserves on de-dollarization efforts, sanctions and inflation concerns. While central banks have been net buyers for more than a decade, purchases have surged over the past three years, with more than 1,000 metric tons of gold bought annually—rising to 1,045 tons at the end of 2024, according to the World Gold Council.

“As global fragmentation continues, central bank buying will remain a strong pillar of demand and shape the market’s long-term dynamics,” Reade said.

The $3,000 an ounce level is a somewhat arbitrary psychological level which might act as a short-term barrier to gold climbing higher, Keith Watson, co-founder of investment company Golden Prospect Precious Metals said. On the other hand, geopolitical risks remain elevated and tit-for-tat trade policies are set to continue, so on this basis, the outlook for gold remains broadly supportive, he said.

“We would argue more so for operationally geared equities whose performance has lagged the broader upward momentum seen in the gold price itself,” said Watson.

Gold miners have benefited from the record high, with shares in Newmont, Barrick Gold and Anglo Gold Ashanti up 1.85%, 0.85% and 3.1% respectively in European evening trading.

Great to be in gold, and better to be in AngloGold Ashanti

enjoy your weekend, and may Gout Gout create another world record in the 200 m and 100 m sprints this weekend !!!

https://www.olympics.com/en/news/gout-gout-queensland-athletics-championships-2025-schedule

the gnome

In Oz$ we have hit $4,769, and we have a beautiful graph of almost exponential price appreciation since 2003.

https://www.abcbullion.com.au/products-pricing/gold

The value of our money has steadily been eroded by successive governments who chip away at devaluing it, day after day. It does not matter the colour of the government, the outcomes are always the same. We are now facing a FURTHER 10% increase in energy prices, in part because the government have sold all of our massive gas reserves to overseas interests, and we may have to buy our gas back at market rates? (and there is worse, but I wont bore you) I would laugh if I wasnt too busy crying at how inept the government is here.

Suffice to say I trust gold more than I trust the government ot maintain the value of the fiat they are meant to be responsible for

the gnome

Surely there is legislature which outlines a course of action aginst what is incompetency in the broking industry. If this is allowable, this would be game on amongst the brokers, and the brokers (bless their souls) would have a field day rorting the system to their advantage... bit like the banks saying it took "X" days to transfer your money, and you find out that your money went on the short term money market in their name while they did all the onerous paperwork LOL. Can they produce evidence that the shares are in your name? Do you collect the dividend?

Well on again off again leadership, which is up and which way down, and why cant we have both in 5 minutes?

Gold held an advance, supported by haven demand after Wall Street was whipsawed (we can expect a lot whipsaws is the call from the informed) by US President Donald Trump’s on-off tariff plans and his latest comments downplaying fears of a recession...well recession one minute, stagflation the next ... not sure where growth fits, and growing what?

Bullion traded near $US2915 an ounce, as investors weighed Trump’s latest move to dial back his trade-war threat against Ontario just HOURS OR WAS IT MINUTES after saying he would double duties on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50 per cent. The president also downplayed the risk of a tariff-led recession even as markets nosedive and the US dollar trends lower. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for foreign investors.

A slew of tepid economic reports in the US have also sparked fears of stagflation, and we wont mention the deflation in the GREEN SHOOTS OF AI, exposed by DEEPSEEK (by the Chinese, there has to be an invasion brewing? :) LOL)where there’s upside risk for inflation as well as downside risk for economic growth. A trade-induced growth slowdown could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year.

Then when we mention the Chinese we have to acknowledge the damage they are doing with their attitude to Tesla and its spying software in China? Deary me, sounding a bit familiar?

A repeat of 2008, but with private money masters of the Universe in play rather than the banks?

Velly velly interesting times?

go gold

In Oz, we are all smarting with the new treatment we are receiving from our close friend and ally, Trump, esp tariffs on steel and aluminuim being the latest serving. So glad Trump is a friend of Australia LOL. What happens to enemies. Trump rattled markets in morning trade in New York by saying he will increase tariffs on steel and aluminium exports from Canada to 50 per cent! We are not that high yet, but now we have found out the US military have built illegal fuels stored in Australian Airbase, and we have kicked up a fuss, we will probably get there tomorrow LOL?

Last month, 20 per cent of all US base metals were imported from Canada, according to Bloomberg, including 72 per cent of all US unwrought aluminum imports. This is to achieve what, and how?

Trump’s spokeswoman Katherine Leavitt said the US was in “a period of economic transition”, recovering from the “mess” left by Joe Biden and as far as Canada, she asserted that the nation has been “ripping off” the US for decades. So now we have the master of Euphamisms cutting loose.."Economic transition" ... Leavitt also said “tariffs are a tax cut for the American people”. Bidens mess, may look very small compared with Trumps ...

One can ask how they really got into this ridiculous mess? Whats the impact of the Trump policy going to have on the cost of US based manufacture? Prices up or down? If they go up, how do you counter this? and so on.

One does wonder about the Emperors new clothes?

the gnome

Good rant Mr Bond. I have 5 children in their 30-40 year age group, and am happy to say none of them read the main stream hysteria, and never have. So I think as a parent I have a good rating in one of my KPI's !!!

Dont confuse main stream (press), with free...there is no relationship in my view. Mr MurderOK at news.con and his continual grovelling to (aspects of) Israel and all this anti-semitic B^llsh$t is a tad overwhelming. Stuck in a groove of no interest to many I know...just sad reflection on a few

the gnome

Great to see the dividend come through as maybe the consumption of Centamin has caused a change (long term) in policy with Anglo. Whatever, I am happy

Trump is doing fabulous things for gold short and long term. He is deflating the hot air (he would call it draining the swamp) in the Wall Street market place, which can only be a good and fair thing for sustainability, and rewards going to more deserving people. May he reign forever???

the gnome

Well as I posted before, we are in for another bit of jiggery pockery with the wall street crew.

Worth listening to one of the more articulat documenters of the 2008 debacle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0BHAD4tQwQ&t=564s