The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
My weekend reading of the non main stream hysteria, led me to an interesitng web site. Just thought I would share
https://www.nber.org/
One article perhaps of interest....
The Economics of Aging?
When the NBER’s Program on the Economics of Aging began in 1986 under the direction of David Wise, the baby-boom generation was between the ages of 22 and 40. Long-run projections at the time forecast that the United States would transition to an older population distribution. Today, with baby boomers ranging in age from 58 to 76, that projected future is the ongoing reality of our nation. One-fifth of the population will be age 65 or older in the next decade.
Since its inception, the Economics of Aging Program’s underlying focus has been the study of the health and financial well-being of people as they age and the larger implications of a population that is increasingly composed of older people. The program continues this broad focus as new and ongoing challenges emerge ....
another
New COVID-19 Working Papers: July 25, 2022
NEWS ARTICLE
Three new working papers distributed this week report on the economic, health, and related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and public policies that respond to it. One, drawing on data from many countries, evaluates the efficacy of social media campaigns in increasing demand for vaccines and knowledge about where to get them (30273). Another documents a sharp rise in the closure rate of small businesses early in the pandemic (30285). Yet another investigates the effect of working from home on worker productivity and quit rates (30292).
another
Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, delivered the 2022 Martin Feldstein Lecture, on “Managing a Turn in the Global Economy.” She described the policy challenges facing emerging markets, many of which have experienced rising debt-to-GDP ratios in the last decade, as global interest rates increase. She highlighted the need to integrate a range of policy instruments, including but not limited to the flexible exchange rates and domestic interest rates that are the focus of the conventional analysis, in designing a policy response.
Some good, some abysmal...the economists have a lot of fun at the tax payers expense ...LOL
best
the GOLD Gnome
I think we all know the government cooks the books on reporting a raft of statistics, to suit their purpose. The media takes these and cooks their books to suit their purposes. The poor b@ggers in the stands, look at all of this deceit and wonder whats really going on, or they just follow like lemmings to the cliff.
As a passing thought try this site, to look at True Inlfation....
https://truflation.com/
be interested on your thoughts
best
the gnome
If one has a look at the recent Russian positions and movements, it would seem there is a remarkable correlation between Russian ground acquisitions in Ukraine and Russian speaking majorities in the Ukraine. Not perfect, but very interesting.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Simplified_historical_map_of_Ukrainian_borders_1654-2014.jpg
If one is to look and consider the changing borders of Ukraine since 1654, one sees some interesting changes and expansions of Ukraine.. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Simplified_historical_map_of_Ukrainian_borders_1654-2014.jpg
If one is to look at the geopolitical maps of 1900-1905 you see the Russian Empire has boundaries which encompass the Ukraine (which does not exist)
https://omniatlas.com/maps/northern-eurasia/19050904/
The Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic was born in 1922. In 1932, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin deliberately imposed famine there, killing at least three million Ukrainians in a single year...and more than double that in an extended period
The Nazis slaughtered more than 1.5 million Ukrainian Jews. Millions more non-Jewish Ukrainians were also killed or put to hard labor.
Tough place to live, being at the cross roads?
Following the 2014 Maidan Revolution and years of fighting in Donbas, learning Ukrainian became mandatory in schools in 2017. A law was passed in 2019 that initiated a process to make Ukrainian language materials obligatory in all areas of the public sector. And where did that leave the Russian speaking people?
It has been a place of much conflict for centuries, and my guess it remain that way. Very sadly.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-identity-history-and-conflict
the gnome
Yes, I think there are a number of positives for gold now.
1. as trust in the fed and govt generally goes down, trust in the paper they issue goes down, and gold does well in low trust situations
2. very hard to see how the economy is going to bounce up. commodity prices dont suggest that,
3. wage rises without productivity increases will create nightmares. sourcing (parts), logistics and freight is a nightmare, as is money transfers through the bank system, ..even buying second hand cars is now getting out of hand in Oz. We recently bought a 2nd hand good cond FWD, fully kitted for $125k, and now its worth $140k, and we have had 12 months usage!?
4. the stupidity index is rising exponentially. we see energy policies which dont work, water management schemes which fail every decade, and people spending more time thinking about how to remove gender imbalance from the english language (or something like this !!!), than how to make business more efficient (etc)
5. the populace is now being used to handouts, in the form of one stimulus package or another, the corporate world loves the cheaper int rates and has loaded itself with debt (generally) but there are those that think life is good as we can see in the corp bond market
Much to digest, many balls in the air, but...how they land?, it is a very safe bet that no one knows, but generally in these situations people head for real assets that produce real value or are a necessity, The fluffy stuff tends ot be fluffy.
and... gold will still be shining in 10,000 years
best
the GOLD gnome
Fed officials are raising rates at the most aggressive pace since the 1980s. Until last month, the central bank hadn’t raised rates by 0.75 point since 1994.
The Federal Reserve continued a sprint to reverse its easy-money policies by approving another unusually large interest rate increase and signaling more rises were likely coming to combat inflation that is running at a 40-year high.
And they have not even got a firm line of view of the effects of the last rate rise, but regardless are firm in their view, that not only is this large rate hike needed, but more are likely?? Bizarre to say the least.
As for the employment numbers, like to see the quality/dignified employment numbers, than the burger flip/underemployment free for all. The Fed and the whole main stream narrative is little more than a joke
Anybody like to bet the Feds will over do it?
the gnome
Great article about Chat/billboards,
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/magnis-seeks-court-order-to-reveal-hotcopper-users-identities-20220727-p5b503
(THERE is MORE SO VISIT THE WEB SITE, BUT I LIKE THIS.
Magnis seeks court order to reveal HotCopper users’ identities
ASX-listed battery manufacturing group Magnis Energy Technologies has lodged a federal court application demanding penny stock message board HotCopper disclose the identity of 15 anonymous posters it believes disparaged the company. Grief!
The July 22 application against HotCopper operator Report Card Pty Ltd seeks an order to force HotCopper to disclose the full name and address of each poster in addition to email addresses, any internet protocol (IP) address, the internet service provider, and any social media accounts linked to the HotCopper accounts.
Magnis Energy Technologies aims to build battery manufacturing plants in Townsville and New York.
Magnis refused to comment on the court application, although it’s believed the company is furious over what it sees as a series of malicious and false statements anonymously posted to HotCopper message boards about Magnis’ management and operating performance.
Some posters named in the court application use anonymous HotCopper accounts, including Mondrian, Fritzl, Clare69, Rat1973, Sunrock, and Johnyb26. The Market Herald, parent company of HotCopper, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to court documents, the lawyer for HotCopper operator Report Card agreed to provide the identification details of the posters in compliance with any court order. However, by July 22, K&L Gates, the lawyers for Magnis, sent further correspondence reiterating the identification request and putting Report Card on notice.
Magnis’ chairman Frank Poullas is named as an applicant in the court request as seeking to pursue a defamation claim.
Australian Securities and Investments Commission has previously made inquiries with Magnis over the trading of its shares. In November 2021, the company issued an ASX statement in response to media coverage denying it was being investigated by ASIC, but conceded inquiries had been made.
The battery tech play reached a share price high of 73¢ on a market value of around $714 million on December 11 as retail investor enthusiasm for anything associated with lithium or electric vehicles peaked, but the stock had crashed back to 31¢ on Wednesday.
Magnis owns New York-based company Imperium3, which it says operates a lithium-ion battery manufacturing project. For the nine months to March 31, it reported zero revenue and an operating cash loss of $17.9 million. Investing cash outflows totalled $23.6 million, with the company reporting cash on hand of $81.8 million as at March 31....GL GN
Yes the Zim story is a very interesting story which I have followed very closely, and sometimes too closely. It is a tragic reminder of the failure of democracy, the failure of the Kimberley process [diamonds], the failure of intelligent people to build a sustainable future in a land of abundant natural resources. It is the tragedy of what happens when trust walks out the door of a nation, and ideology and empty rhetoric walks in.
The gold coin? Great if the value of the gold is the content of the gold, but what is the "arbitrage" on the difference between the value of the contained gold, and the value of the coin which it is contained in (recall the debasement of currency at the back end of the Roman Empire some 2000 years ago!). Who measures the content of the gold, when trust in the government has departed? Who certifies the content. Really it is the lurch of a government who ...knows not what they are doing. The smart Zim which are a large part of the population smell a rat...or at least the room for a rat to nibble at the their assets.
Governments and agencies in so many nations, at all levels are falling over themselves to talk the language of inclusiveness and openness to community feedback and rising expectations of government service {I picked up a new sticker it read...."AM I INTERUPTING ANYTHING IMPORTANT?...IMPOSSIBLE I WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT"]. Trust and transparency are supposedly the new currency to gain community acceptance, but unfortunately as noted above, trust in the governments walked out the door a few decades ago.
Make sure you convert your paper promises into real assets, and bunker down. It will probably be a cold winter for many
best
the gnome
So the printing presses turn, money appears out of trust, but trust has left, but ... the printing presses still turn. Like a boxer who has been hit onto the ropes too long, too many fights, which he has lost most, but won enough to keep him coming back. He doesnt know what new to do, nothing esle in the kit, so he goes into the ring, to repeat his folly, and lose again.
I think it is interesting they are getting high grade quartz veins (more of?) than they were probably expecting? If these quartz veins are subvertical there is a high chance they did not know much about them if the resource drilling was subvertical.
potentially could be very nice
the gnome
For those with an interest in how things happen, 4 parts, well worth the look
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLIV0Zb5lfM
we do such an incredible job of forgetting the key learnings from the past, and chase wildtigers promising wilder returns with no downside, plus a tub of snakeoil to boot. Go tiger!.
Here is another I came across, (remember VW?)
the history of catalytic converters reveals another side of Detroit [ or just a deeper darker side]. The industry refined the technology only after Congress imposed strict limits and deadlines and foreign car makers threatened to develop cleaner engines. It lobbied forcefully against passage of the standards in 1970, calling them unobtainable, disastrously expensive and environmentally unnecessary. It pressed its case right up to the date of installing the first catalytic converters, and even after the devices put millions of cars into compliance, it fought to have the standards relaxed for cars and not extended to trucks...cars smoking, people smoking, similar?
The movie about it ...
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/movies/story/2021-06-30/no-sudden-move-review-soderbergh-don-cheadle-benicio-del-toro
enjoy the weekend. I will !
best
the gnome
Martin certainly did a good job at selling bag of fruit to Resolute Mining, for a great gain to Toro shareholders (and some pain to Resolute shareholders). It does suggest, that he is good at sales, and very good at selling mines for a good price. It infers that IF there is a sale of CEY it would have to be at a good price, which is the narrative he is building now. It is taking more than 6 days, but this is because he is a mere mortal.
best
the gnome
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected half-percentage point (PREVIOUSLY THEY SAID NO INTEREST RATE RISES TO 2024?) and unveiled a new plan to buy [WHERE DOES THE ONEY COME FROM AGAIN?] the debt of Europe’s most vulnerable economies, seeking to protect the currency union as it navigates the twin threats of skyrocketing inflation and slowing economic growth.
The move takes the ECB’s key interest rate to zero, ending the bloc’s eight-year experiment [??!!] with negative interest rates and capping two weeks of drama for Europe, which saw Russia cut and then restart the supply of vital natural gas, along with the collapse of Italy’s government.
On Thursday, she said the bank expected inflation to remain high [BEFORE THEY SAID INFLATION WAS ONLY TEMPORARY ??!!] for some time, partly due to the euro’s falling exchange rate against the dollar, which raises import prices.
One could believe, as I once did, that the bankers know what they are doing. But really , its all an experiment. and you know who the guinea pigs are?
best
the gnome
Hi PaulM
The way companies grow and some do not is very interesting. Predicatble, Simply, those that fail, are those where the founders and families and friends hang on, to way past their competency level. Think of any?
The ones that succeed, have dynamic and constructive and empowering succession processes.
CEY has a great ore system (composed of may orebodies and mines, several I have no doubt have not been found yet), but the company has been subject to "founders avarice". It is out of these "avarice" woods, now, and a bright fuure is looming. A bump here and there is normality, but look out for the fundamentals. These are in the ground, and it is a magnificent ore system. Tier 1 !
the gnome
Really, ... Dear Elon?
There is more meaning and substance in the world, than deifying a nutter, even if he has a cute dance move, a dimple and a sweet side step?
Dont get caught up in the stupidity of the US cult movement. Rumour is they follow any thing, including red herrings, dutch tulips and alike. Even NY cheese cakes.
the gnome
Good luck and good night from the wild colonies to the south
Rebess
I have been around for a "while". Brief high level notes
1. In the "while", I have accumulated some very decent dividends from CEY, which has alleviated SOME of the pain (I have also some losses in industrials etc, but thats off topic)
2. I have not been a CEY seller, and as such, yes, the SP goes up and it goes down, and yes, the Gold Price goes up and goes down, and I have the odd spasm, but no pain as I do not sell. As such one can pontificate, or cry or both, or sell and celebrate. I have no pain, but watch carefully. I do look with some amusement on those who offer opinions on a shorter time frame, or on the bais of $/word of advice or $/transaction of shares, and these are not in short supply, but tend to dominate the sort term investors. For me nothing but sad amusement, provided by people who I am sure who could do better with their life, but possibly are too lazy or stupid or both.
3. The figures that I watch and invest in composes a few aspects
a. the life of present (Sukari) mine, and this represents my maximum life of investment, and sets a view on my "probably" investment period. I susect gold mining at Sukari and surround will be going on for 50 years or more (but this is a guestimate of course, be it educated, highly educated, experienced or whatever)
b. the extension of present mine, and the abilities to extend. Have they got smart technologies, smart people, both or whatever.
c. Organic expansion capacity forseeable. Doropo, Egypt broad, ABC etc, This is not a bad portfolio (10m ozs?), and it is being worked systematically rather than sensationally (as is the plight of some companies). Hope they get rapid gold assay capabiltity VERY SOON, to guide them, and hope they do not embroil in the Chrysos offerings. It is very possble now for a CAPEX of $100k or a lot less! See DetecteORE? Groping in the dark is a very unconvincing exploration strategy.
I am not stressed, as I am not a day trader (as noted previously) as I have not the spare hours in the day to dedicate to the nonsense of the vibrations of the market. And believe me the nonsense of recent is significant and is not representative of true value, but of rank stupidity and mindlessness (think Lemmings or politicians or economists?))
Relaxed comfortable,
the gnome
Rebess
Are you perceiving a change in the company, and implying a change in the fortunes of the company, and furthermore a change in fortunes of investors?
If the Gold price goes north and it will, it might be "velly interesting times" for investors?
best
the gnome
As inflation grows around the world the US dollar enjoying multi-decade highs. To an extent, that’s helping mitigate the impact of inflation in the US by dampening the rising cost of imports. Most other places, though, are seeing the opposite happen. The rising dollar devalues local currencies making imports, including energy, more expensive, adding to inflation. This week Phil Dobbie talks to Prof Steve Keen about the impacts of exchange rates on international trade and how nations could be starting to challenge the US dominance in currency markets. As Pola, a Debunking Economics Podcast listener asks, what happens as BRICs nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) move to payments in their own currencies instead of using the US dollar? Beyond that, what if they develop their own trading currency, similar to the Bancor proposed by Keynes back in the 1940s.
https://www.podbean.com/site/EpisodeDownload/PB127B52AM4AGN