Member Info for goldgnome

Always good to retain your sense of humour, and who better than ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUezfuy8Qpc

Auson

There are some amazing disconnects in the market at the moment (illogical stuff, but this is what the markets can be about). POG going steadily up. Mining companies not going up at same rate to the POG but going up at signif lower rate. And Junior Gold Explorers generally getting trashed! despite several of them having fabulous geological assets..a lot being life stylers.

...strategists say investors need to look further into what’s really driving gold prices higher.

While bubbling geopolitical tension around the world has only added fuel to gold’s safe-haven appeal, Mr Garvey pointed to a “quiet trade” in the background where countries are building their gold reserves.

“There’s been a clear shift in the way China manages its reserves, and it’s been primarily driven by de-dollarisation,” said senior commodity strategist at ANZ Daniel Hynes.

“China’s continued push to have a financial system that is less reliant on the US dollar has already been seen through its efforts to incorporate renminbi in more transactions, but in terms of its reserves, that strong accumulation of gold has been a key benefit of this de-dollarisation strategy.”

The US has historically used the financial system to exert its influence on the world, which runs contrary to China’s interests, particularly if President Xi Jinping follows through with his desire to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

The US maintaining its leverage over China is also particularly important given the possibility of another trade war should Donald Trump return to the White House as president.

“If you look at what happened with Russia after it invaded Ukraine, accounts and assets got frozen, and they were taken out of SWIFT [the banking system],” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com.

“China doesn’t want to be exposed to that level of risk where if anything goes wrong in its relationship with the US, they can’t access their assets.”

So its a long play but this is Chinese thinking, they have been around a bit and have memories longer than 8 seconds.

Why put you citizens in the hands of a country which has almost destroyed its social license. A: You would not do this.

Its a long topic, hope above short notes gives you some insight

good luck

A$ 3,702.03 +7.31 +0.20%

Eu 2,263.46 +11.63 +0.52%

China 17,901.12 +72.33 +0.41%

Jap Y 364,232.14 +2184.39 +0.60%

Lots happening, all positive for gold ....

Cowichan

Do you understand it is Capital Drilling who is in the trial ... I suspect for very good reasons ...

GG

Always a sobering look...

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar in U.S. City Average

$1 of goods in 1913, is now worth $31.80

Message: do not get caught hanging onto the USD

Play with the graphs ..

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R

Then hang onto your gold ...

Just looking at the last 10 years is bad enough ..

June 1982 $100 .... 2020 valued at $39 to now valued at $31.8

Home price Index

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA

Its a one way race to the bottom

go gold, and real assets

the gnome.

The Price of Gold in A$fiat is now pushing through A$3,700 per ounce .... as the USD slides, as many have predicted and makes good sense .... in US$fiat, we hover over $2,500 making J P MOrgans prediction fairly safe

in REVIEW

The key drivers behind gold prices in 2024 have shifted, decoupling from the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts (why are some commentators contining BS about this?) and U.S. real yields.

Gold prices continue to hit all-time highs, driven by a multitude of factors including heightened geopolitical risks, expectations the Fed will begin lowering rates and central bank buying.

The structural bull case for gold remains intact, even as prices have risen sharply. Prices are expected to average $2,500/oz in the fourth quarter of 2024.

done, now proifts if the mining companies can

1. contain costs

2. not do any ridiculous MandA

The latter brings me to the Lions Cycle clock

ASX : LSX

https://lionselection.com.au › wp-content › uploads

if that does not work use the link below and look at the clock on

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/lsx/announcements/quarterly-report-for-the-3-months-ended-31-july-2024-3A648749

IF BOTH FAIL, THEN IN SHORT ITS NOW TIME FOR MERGERS !!!! THEN CASH TAKEOVERS..THEN NEW FLOATSM THEN RISING EXPLORATION BUDGETS AND SPENDS...AND ON IT GOES.

BUT MERGERS ...COULD THIS BE THE TIME WE SEE CEY MERGE ... OR ACQUIRE ....

Good luck punters, but gold is good to go !!!!

best

the gnome

FUNNY ABOUT FAKE REPORTS... I am no longer amazed at the propaganda and utter BS that passes for news these days. Truth is rarely mentioned, and is perhaps just left in tatters with the rest of the American dream.

The flotsam of marvellousness eminating from various parts of the main stream and social media is stupendous.

Price controls, higher taxes, government intervention, and subsidies paid for by printing a constantly devalued currency.

Truly magnificent new ideas, and guess where that leads ... and what is does for the value of the US Fiat and the price of gold?

These are the essential pillars of “21st century socialism” and the radical left Peronism that obliterated Argentina. These are also the main elements of the economic plan presented by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. Undoubtedly, this is the most radical socialist economic plan ever announced by the Democrats...and there is some form there?

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Harris’s proposals will cost $1.95 trillion over 10 years. However, it emphasizes that if certain measures become permanent, this figure could increase to $2.25 trillion.

Well we are not at these figures in Australia but we are on the same course.

The Harris "campaign" has stated that these costs will be offset by a classic excuse of socialism in any election: “higher taxes on corporations and high earners.” This is, obviously, ludicrous, because there is no revenue measure that will cover the already bloated $2 trillion annual deficit and an added $2 trillion. The mantra of “higher taxes for the rich” always means higher taxes and more inflation, a hidden tax, for me and for you.

"The idea that interest rates can be zero, you can pay any valuation for equities, and the deficits don't really matter... that was things are invincible basically. That was the zeitgeist in the late 2010s. It's like, "Look, we even got through the global financial crisis. You can print your way out of anything without consequence.""

There is obviously a consequence, even governments and various talking idealogs dont admit it.

Lurking in the background

"High interest rates are not really going to change what the deficits are doing. And when you increase interest rates at a time when you have 100% debt to GDP held by the public, you actually increase those deficits even more than the rate that you slow down bank lending."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpczZRBeE0

https://stansberryresearch.com/articles/episode-361-fiscal-dominance-is-threatening-the-u-s-today

From leftfield, and for those interested in history, can I boldy recomend

Wyatt Earp and the Cowboy War is a six-part documentary series that depicts the true story of Wyatt Earp in Tombstone, Arizona...on NETFLIX

It has some revelations that I found interesting...much more than the gunfight at the OK Corral.

happy days for those invested in Gold

The Gnome

Broadly speaking, the Fed faces two paths for the coming months. Under one, officials could cut rates by a quarter-point at each of their next few meetings and then dial up or down the size and speed of reductions depending on how the economy fares early next year.

If the economy enters a sharper slowdown, they could cut rates in larger half-point increments to get interest rates closer to 3% by next spring. (The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently set between 5.25% and 5.5%.)

Powell is likely to keep his options open when he speaks this week. Labor market data for August, to be released early next month, could tip the scales in favor of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.

“The reason you move gradually as a central banker is it gives you optionality,” said Goolsbee. “The downside of gradualism is that when things move, you don’t have that luxury anymore.”

A handful of private-sector and former Fed economists, including at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, say evidence that the labor market might be weakening too much should lead officials to make larger rate cuts upfront, shedding their longstanding preference for gradualism.

“They’ve got a lot of wood to chop, and they need to get going. But it’s a very consensus-driven place, and they don’t have the consensus yet to do that,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo. That looks unlikely to happen on this committee without “a shock or a run of weak data that suddenly shifts the consensus to where they move faster.”

If Powell and his bunch are smart they would keep their cards very close to their chest, and keep his options open ....

Not sure how smart they are ....evidence to date is not good

the gnome

Interesting stuff going on in the land of endless Ponzi's...It’s too soon to predict the winner of November’s presidential election, but not too soon to predict the loser: economics!

Economists routinely advise against price controls, tariffs, discriminatory taxes and wider budget deficits. Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are entertaining some or all of them. .. well , well well, and we wonder that is going to do to the USD

Of course, no one expects economic principles to always take precedence over other priorities. And there are times when price controls, tariffs and deficits are actually good economic policy.

But the candidates haven’t just demoted economic principles this year; they’ve jettisoned them altogether.

Might be a good thing in some respects, as the economic theories have lain waste to a lot of good peoples lives.

But to replace it with the needs of politicians in getting their way will be a poor subsitute. I expect Gold to do well in the next 12 months.

Not to mention the continuing escalation and stupidity being shown in the Middle east ... How and why does the uS support a country which does not listen to it? Where does this behaviour lead?

the gnome

Gold goes up in value (Fiat value, USD prime fiat), USD goes down ? ...

In a recent interview with Financial Sense, Marc Chandler laid out his bearish case for the dollar, citing a combination of factors that are lining up for a potential multi-year decline.

The Changing Policy Mix

At the heart of Chandler's argument is the concept of the "policy mix" – the combination of monetary and fiscal policies that can significantly influence a currency's strength. Historically, the most favorable policy mix for a strong currency has been tight monetary policy (raising interest rates) coupled with loose fiscal policy (government spending).

This was the scenario in the mid-1980s under President Ronald Reagan, with tax cuts and increased spending creating large budget deficits, while Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker tightened monetary policy. The result was a significant dollar overshoot.

Now, Chandler argues, we're on the verge of a shift in this policy mix. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates, potentially as soon as September, with forecasts of two to three cuts this year. Meanwhile, fiscal policy remains loose, with neither major political party seriously addressing large-scale fiscal issues.

There is more to his argument see link below ...personally I think he is on the money ..so to speak .....

[In fact both major parties - US or Australia?!- lack any sort of seriousness at all...its more a game show, keep the people entertained sadly, follow some ideology ignoringt eh real world as ost dont know what that is]

https://www.financialsense.com/blog/20993/dollar-facing-multi-year-decline

Marc on "Are Risk Appetites Recovering?", close to my heart ... Could be relevant to gold equities

https://www.marctomarket.com/2024/08/are-risk-appetites-recovering.html

gooday and good luck

the gnome

You may find the thesis interesting ...

Two main themes around which this empirical study revolves.

I. GOLD AND STOCK MARKET IN GOOD AND BAD TIMES In this section, I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress. I employ instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher-than- average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced in periods of rare but extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, at the default of Lehman Brothers (October 2008). 5

II. A TALE OF TAILS: Higher moments and Precious Metals In this section, I investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric behavior of precious metals conditional on stock market performance and provide empirical evidence of the contribution of gold and silver to a portfolio’s systematic skewness (coskewness) and kurtosis (cokurtosis). I find that gold, unlike silver, has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left (i.e. during bear markets or market turmoil), which is when investors care most about the performance of their portfolio Moreover, I document that gold shows low cokurtosis with the market return during volatile periods (gold’s returns tend to be higher during periods of high uncertainty). I show that gold is desirable to risk adverse investors since it tends to decrease the probability and the magnitude of extreme bad outcomes.

https://amsdottorato.unibo.it/5693/1/Taurasi_Donatella_Tesi.pdf

Rather than read the writings of experts it is informative to read the writings and efforts of someone who is trying to become an expert. So much interesting work is on the shelves of Universties, that does not see the light of day, as it takes too long to read and digest, and rarely has interesting pictures

the gnome

Indeed Mr Bond ...

95% of Financial Professionals FAIL TO OUTPERFORM THE MARKET but somehow make money/get paid to do this ? Scam ? True ?

If they are so good at making money why do they want other peoples money (e.g. yours?) - they ust be drowing in money?

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/more-evidence-that-its-really-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-finance-professionals-cant-do-it/

https://www.pionline.com/largest-money-managers/2023-full-list

the gnome

Continuous gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.6% to $2,533.4 a troy ounce in European afternoon trading, having reached as high as $2,538.7 earlier in the session. The prior all-time futures record was $2,522.5 an ounce on Aug. 2. Meanwhile, spot gold broke above the $2,500 barrier for the first time.

Regardless of early August’s profit-taking, investors will continue to be driven toward gold as a safe-haven asset given persistent geopolitical tensions and volatility in the market, along with the anticipated rate cut, Ebkarian added.

Buying has firmed up from sources other than financial funds, said Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott. The U.S. dollar and yields have broken significant support levels and market deleveraging has stopped, ending any gold selling, Wong said.

The war in Ukraine and ongoing conflict in the Middle East, alongside tensions between the U.S. and China, suggest that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term, ING analysts said in a note.

The U.S. presidential election should also continue to add to gold’s upward momentum through to the end of the year, while strong central bank demand should offer further support, ING added.

The continued central bank demand and sovereign buying, alongside Chinese demand, are likely either at or very close to exhausting the free-floating inventory of tradable gold, Wong said.

Saxo Bank maintains a positive view on gold as a hedge against market turmoil, along with continued demand from central banks, investors worries about elevated government debt levels and rate-cut hopes, Hansen said.

Lets say One Hundred CI is real, who owns it?

So what, business as usual ? there are some requirements by mining law in the country I am sure you are aware of

delay of what?

Thanks Mr T, thats a good article, and interesting to see that CEY is a highlighted company for good practices. The bit I noted

"In the case of Centamin (CEE) an adjustment was necessary. The reason is that the company is exempt from income taxes in return as part of its production sharing agreement with the Egyptian government. The government shares 50% of the cash flow after the company had recouped its investments. It is therefore a kind of “income tax” and should therefore be accounted to make comparison with their peers that are subject to income tax, possible. The green highlighted cell shows the total cash disbursed to the government. "

regards

Gold Gnome

AISC is interesting and it needs to be very clear as whats in or out. There are a few defintions BUT there is no standardization and gold miners use the AISC quite subjectively. It was mena to get around the farcical cash costs, but has its own problems...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2799985-the-concept-of-aisc-in-the-gold-mining-industry-strength-and-weakness

https://www.kapitales.com.au/education/definition/all-in-sustaining-cost--a-comprehensive-overview

Thanks Sotolo

I wish I knew the answer, but the big picture view, is that all is not what is reported or what it seems. I do like a liberal splash with the mass media and the social media.

So whats happening with gold and what causes the sometimes irrational behaviour of gold, can be a bit obscure, in the end it is the behaviour of investors in Wall Street, but what titilates their behaviour is interesting and what we all guess at.

My bet is a few things perhaps obviously

1. Mistrust in governments, not to mention bad behaviour (ridiculous political interviews and opinions, corruption, fraud, lies and deceit etc), because this does effect investors repsonse and behaviour, short and long terms. I cannot even guess at the a,ount fo mistrust in USA, but Oz is not far behind...FRance...Germany etc

2. Levels of uncertainty due to volatile conflicts, which can scale rapidly, and cause a lot of oscillations in the market for a range of commodities

3. Behaviour and strategies of Central Banks, as they signal long term optionalities being positioned for.

So to Egypt and Centamin.

Egypt is in the Middle East, and North Africa, and there are a lot of forces at play. Some obvious, some not, some profoundly stupid, like the liberation of Libya...which have far flung (in North and West Africa) consequences. So you have to keep abreast of what is really happening. What is reported is sometimes to be polite, utter BS and ideologoically driven.

Centamin is in Egypt, and in my view is actually behaving itself very well, short and long term, very commendably. Their behaviourin Egypt will be noticed by the Cote Ivoire Govt, and set a standard their, which will be a good standard. It has a solid agreement with the Egyptian Govt, and delivers on this agreement, in a publically obvious manner.

Hope that answers your good question

the Gnome

🇲🇱- Mali has severed diplomatic ties with U.kraine 🇺🇦 & expelled the Swedish 🇸🇪 Ambassador from the country. She was given 72 hours to leave the country.

What went wrong?

On Aug 5th 2024, Mali 🇲🇱 officially ends all diplomatic relations with U.kraine following statements of Mr. Andriy Yusov, Spokesman for the U.krainian military intelligence agency, who openly admitted the involvement of U.kraine in arming the Taureg terrorists group in Mali. There was an ambush that resulted in the death of scores of Malian Defense and Security Forces in Tinzawatène, Mali. Mr Andriy jubilated.

These statements were reinforced by Mr. Yurii Pyvovarov, Ambassador of U.kraine to Senegal 🇸🇳, who also displayed his support for what happened in Mali by posting the images & videos on the official media page with the caption "other results to come". The post was deleted shortly afterwards when online users challenged his country's stance on funding terrorism in Africa.

On 9th Aug, the Swedish 🇸🇪 Minister of Cooperation declared that Sweden's “aid” to Mali would cease as a punishment for breaking off diplomatic ties with U.kraine.

Today, in response, Mali gave the Swedish ambassador to Bamako,72 hours to leave its territory. You can go with your "aid" immediately.

The Senegalese 🇸🇳 Foreign Ministry also summoned the U.krainian 🇺🇦 ambassador to Dakar, Yuriy Pivovarov, over a video he posted in support of terrorists in Mali.

Since the crisis in Gaza began on 7 October 2023, journalists have come under attack for reporting on Palestine.

On the ground, over 113 journalists have been killed by Israel Forces with full impunity. This specific targeting of the press, who are protected under international law, is a war crime and this deliberate killing has been condemned by Amnesty, the UN Secretary General, Committee to Protect Journalists and International Commission of Jurists.

Around the World, journalists reporting on the crisis have been pressured, silenced or dismissed for covering independent, impartial research by human rights NGOs like Amnesty International. Mis and disinformation is rife and we have seen bias in how some global and local media outlets cover the crisis.

Join us for this exclusive online briefing that will discuss the perils of reporting on Palestine, the role of the media in crisis and how we can defend freedom of the press with three preeminent journalists including Ahmed Shihab el-Din, Antoinette Lattouf and Nour Haydar.

You might like to listen

https://amnestyau.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_YGpGSBt4R0ia51DsFSjDWQ#/registration

the gnome