The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
Dont worry about the week, unless you sell. Nor worry about the day. Nor the hour. Its a bad play, and can ruin ones complexion and general outlook on life. Just sit back and watch the clowns bat away. You will find they bat themselves into a corner, and then the slaughter starts. When I am not sure, but whe it happens I will be awake. It will happen. POG up today, down tomorrow, so what? Only if you sell today buy tomorrow.
Get your time lines firm, good luck if you trade in the week, I have been tempted but dont have enough time, and besides that I sober up in the nick of time !?
If I could offer advice, I would probably say, sit back, go long gold, go longer on well run gold companies with a well defined organic pipeline, no debt, no royalties and no streaming (the MandA guys are a host of risks), relax, perhaps fishing, darts and/or tarts, and generally enjoy every minute!
the gnome
Thanks Spoonington
There is much to discuss, that is not discussed in an open and balanced media (which being a free western democracy we deserve ..LOL). One of the stupid games the mass media plays is to find the new hero, and deify them. It wore thin with me decades ago. We have had B-grade actors, nymphomaniacs, reformed alcoholics, "entrepreneurs" and now we have a clown with a fetish for offshore bank accounts.
They simply take us for emotional enitites with no ability to think, let alone think critically about the BS they serve up. It does suggest they are a bit short on the grey matter themselves, but I guess they do their best.
Throwing "leaders" onto the stage with a poorly thought through script is wearing thin. Many of the leaders struggle with stringing more than 2 sentences together without a reading from a "transparent" prompting device, which does spare us some time, assuming one would want to listen to the BS in the first place.
My cycnical day to day, the medicine must be abating.
the gnome
Couldn't agree more Tornadotony in most things. Interesting to see the Texas power grid on melt down, with 110d F predicted. Could sober the oil and gas brigade up?
The strength of the USD is not tenable, as it against their interests, but they do seem to enjoy shooting themselves in the foot these days (perhaps this is better usage of the AK15's in every basement).
The US is only marginaly short of civil war, and the gap is closing. Some of the stuff that is happening that does not make the mass media is frightening. How this plays out is first order interesting. Not well is my guess.
The playout to the Russia V West war in the Ukraine is going to be very interesting. The stupidity on display is breathtaking
The view from 2015 is sobering, but not enough for the leaders to do anything
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
The view from yesterday, has more meat on the bone that some of the ridiculous commentary in the mass and social media
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxdHm2dmvKE
Gold will be a strong player in the future is my view
the gnome
So it is interesting to look at the commentary on gold and the prediction of its price, over the last 25 years, and the correlations or not.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4343316-golds-correlations
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1995822621001497
I guess some people make their money writing rubbish, others lose theirs by reading rubbish, and so on and so forth
This is one of the writings I have been watching for a decade or more...United States graduates roughly 70,000 undergraduate engineers annually, whereas China graduates 600,000 and India 350,000.
like to make a prediction
the gnome
SJ,
No not rocket science at all. The overshoots and undershoots are part of a traders day, week or month.
The sad thing at the moment is that the under and overshoots are being created by those (central @bankers) that are paid handsomely to engineer things such that these phenomena do not occur (or are minimised)! These are then seized upon and exagerated by the $/word journalists and self described Quants and Savvies, and the swings and round abouts then impact the VIX, which the algorithms feed off, and the storm brews and swings get wilder.
Just recognise the pattern and plan your day, week, month eh?
God gold, it will haveits day again ... some things are hard to hold down for long
Gold acts more like a currency than a commodity, BUT EITHER WILL DO?. It generally has a negative correlation with the US dollar. When the US dollar is strong, the price of gold decreases but when the US dollar is weak, gold strengthens. The gold price is currently trading at US$1,286.40 per ounce.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-vs-gold-comparison-last-ten-years
After all these years, gold is still very much apart of our everyday lives. We may wear it, invest in it or prospect for it. There are no substitutes. Gold is gold.
best
the gnome
It is interesting to contemplate how they get away with it, year after year, election after election. It does suggest democracy, as practicised is a broken model, and I don't believe there is not a better model. Afterall, there is a constant invention of disrutive smart businesses which give rise to far more efficient and effective ways of doing businesses (see SMART BUSINESS, by Ming Zeng). Why cant the modern generation invent SMART GOVERNMENT, as simply repeating what has failed in the past and is failing again, does suggest something is wrong.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/25100650.pdf
There is work afoot
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3465061
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358904803_Building_a_Super_Smart_Nation_Scenario_Analysis_and_Framework_of_Essential_Stakeholders_Characteristics_Pillars_and_Challenges
the gnome
Having spent a week of 6 on Wall St, the phrase "bubble machine" is apt.
May 12, 2022, just over fourteen years after the collapse of Bear Stearns, the New York Times announced another crash. In a story entitled, “Cryptocurrencies Melt Down in a ‘Perfect Storm’ of Fear and Panic,” the lede read:
A steep sell-off that gained momentum this week starkly illustrated the risks of the experimental and unregulated digital currencies.
The story told of a mass investor flight from cryptocurrency markets, which has since caused an astonishing $700 billion in losses. There were several key triggering events, including the collapse of a “stablecoin” product called TerraUSD. A stablecoin is a type of digital currency that’s usually pegged to the value of a “stable” reserve asset like a dollar. They are often used to enter and exit trades for other cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin.
In theory, stablecoins work, if they’re backed by real assets and by guarantees that hog-tie the customer to their money in adverse conditions. Part of the idea behind a stablecoin is to be the calmer end of the volatile crypto experience. As Bloomberg put it, stablecoins can be a “safe haven” for investors, who can keep their holdings “protected from wild swings in the crypto market” without need to “convert their holdings into traditional money.” But the implosion of TerraUSD put a big early dent in the “safe haven” description.
That wasn’t the only factor. Just days after TerraUSD lost its “peg” and started its freefall in early May, financial observers found an eyebrow-raising passage in the already-disappointing quarterly 10-K report of a crypto market leader, Coinbase. In addition to reporting a $430 million loss and a 19% drop in users, the company stated:
In the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors.
Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency trading platform in the United States. When a customer stores cryptocurrency in a Coinbase wallet, those funds in theory can only be accessed with a cryptography-protected key, making it, again in theory, the unique property of the customer.
and so on, and so forth
nothing will stop the MIGHTY BUBBLE MACHINE...
“It’s 2008 on crack.”...
THE GNOME
When all else fails, you call on the 1922 committee to clean up the mess. The who, they ask?
The 1922 Committee, also known as "the 22", is a committee of all backbench Conservative MPs that meets weekly when the Commons is sitting. Its chair, usually a senior MP, is elected by committee members and has considerable influence within the Parliamentary Party.
Despite its name, the 1922 Committee was actually set up in April 1923 following an initiative by new Conservative MPs elected at the 1922 General Election to facilitate cooperation within the party.
It seems like everyone knows what the mess is about, but just how long has it been going on? I guess when they clean up the mess in the UK they can clean up the messes in the southern colonies...LOL
enjoying the weekend, my footy team won!
the gnome
Well if gold is correlated with uncertainty, then political uncerainty and rudderless leadership is here. Boris has bonked himself too much and been bonked. Biden is lost in a haze of his own making while democracy in the US unravels ...
First, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said he would block a bipartisan bill aimed at enhancing the U.S.’ ability to compete with China unless Democrats abandon a separate prescription drug, climate and tax bill.
Second, the Supreme Court said the Environmental Protection Agency couldn’t enact sweeping rules covering greenhouse gas emissions, a decision likely to circumscribe federal authority in a range of fields.
Third, news emerged that President Biden might be reaching a decision to waive some of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China.
Fourth, Donald will be back as President!?
And we have the Russian-Nato fiasco in Ukraine, and a sad shooting in Japan. A glut of unsold homes in Sydney and Melbourne forcing sellers to discount their asking prices and creating bargains for buyers willing to take the risk of prices falling further, as the largest housing market correction in at least 40 years accelerates.
Crypto is quaking and shaking, and people know not where to go.
China is loosening up and its share market is charging ahead,
The changing of the guard is surely happening, and the talking heads are talking their respective heads off, and creating more uncertainty
Thanks goodness for gold..."we find a positive and strong relationship between gold returns and the uncertainty composite indicator when the uncertainty attains its highest level and under normal gold market scenario. This suggests that holding a diversified portfolio composed of gold could help protecting against exposure to uncertain risks."
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1806/1806.07623.pdf
best of luck to us all
enjoy your weekend, and get the long game sorted out.
the gnome
For those interested in the structural controls and mineralised potential of the underground at Sukari, the below provides a useful insight. In particular figures, 2A,B and C
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226196044_The_Sukari_Gold_Mine_Eastern_Desert-Egypt_structural_setting_mineralogy_and_fluid_inclusion_study/link/09e41507ef47d97b4a000000/download
There is room for considerable upside in the underground mineralisation, in terms of tonnes and grade, in my humble opinion.
the gnome.
There are 4 things that spring to mind with those grades (ALL POSITIVE! THAT MAKES MY MOUTH WATER MORE!!).
1. Comparison with the undergrpund Fosterville Gold Mine (in Oz), held by Kirkland Lake (and whoever took them over) where they got very excited (justifiable) by 2.6 m @200 gpt Au. Fosterville limped along for more than 100 years as a small time gouger show, until they discovered the mother lode/s. It then became the lowest cost underground mine in Australia if not the world with a AISC of about US$300 per ounce. Worth a read https://www.amcconsultants.com/experience/kirkland-lake-fosterville-gold-mine patience can be a virtue, but knowing how LARGE bonanza grade gold mines get found and developed is very useful.
2. Optionalities increase. Basically with those grades and thicknesses one gets a lof optionality as how to mine, how to mix (etc). Optionality is one key to managing a profitable mine. Grade of course is another as is margin.
3. The variation of thickness and high grade suggests that there is more than just a single high grade vein. Given the geology, rheologies and structure I would expect there to be vein arrays, crush zones and breccia zones...this is something to watch for very carefully, and could make a significant upgrade to the mining operation.
4. With such high grades and visible gold, they need to be evry dilligent about their assaying method, as they could be UNDER REPORTING, as has been noted in a number of high grade gold mines in the last few years...
"" “The correction to the intercept in hole UDH4051 is significant as, at 207 g/t over 2.6 m (original 51.7 g/t Au over 2.6 m ) , it is extremely high-grade and is located 500 m away from our deepest Mineral Reserves in Lower Phoenix. With the very high concentrations of gold we get in the quartz with VG mineralization at Fosterville, the revised intercept provides increasing evidence that there will be additional high-grade lenses that we can identify as we drill to extend the deposit down-plunge from current Mineral Reserves.” The error in the initial report was identified during a subsequent review of the sample batch, which was assayed using an Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS) instrument to measure gold in solutions. The analytical method required solutions for extremely high-grade gold samples to be diluted, and dilution calculations applied to the AAS readings to return the gold assay. On Site Laboratory Services identified that a transcription error had occurred, and that a dilution calculation had not been applied to two results in their initial report.""
That was a 400% UNDER REPORTING ! SO THERE COULD BE A LOT MORE THERE THAN THEY KNOW.
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/kla/kirkland-lake-gold-ltd/news/kirkland-lake-gold-updates-on-fosterville-exploration-2626361.html
FORTUNE FAVORS THE BRAVE
best
the gnome
The other good bit of news for the die hards, is dear ol' Boris is going to fall on his sword! LOL. He must have heard that if he didn't resign, he would get some 24 hours of counselling from Nick Kyrgios. Never a dull day?
good luck to us all
the gnome.
PaulM
There is a lot to like about the report, including the below, excuse my enthusiasm, but the underground expansion looks to be shaping up comfortably.
HIGHLIGHTS
· Sukari underground drilling. The underground exploration programme at Sukari continued to support our strategy of delineating the full potential of the underground orebody to deliver both mine life extension and operational expansion. Drilling was completed across all areas of the underground, including at Horus Deeps where drilling intersected the highest-grade mineralisation in that zone to date. Horus Deeps remains open to the north, south and down dip and represents the long-term future of the operation. Notable drill results include:
· Horus Deeps - 54m at 15.1g/t Au, including 3.8m at 161g/t Au and 2.15m at 44.84g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!
· Ptah - 23m at 7.2g/t Au, including 2m at 14.29g/t Au and 6m at 17.72g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!
· Amun - 17m at 9.6g/t Au, including 1m at 136g/t Au
· Amun - 8.5m at 7.6g/t Au, including 1m at 52.8g/t Au
obviously a lot of high grade, but interesitng to see how they want to mine this ...
· Sukari Bonanza zones. The Bast area between Ptah and Amun continues to return high grade underground zones of Bonanza style mineralisation. Drilling in this area, demonstrates a consistent geological host within 100m of existing infrastructure which could improve underground operational flexibility through the development of a new high-grade mining area in the near-term. Drilling highlights include:
· 10m at 64g/t Au, including 2m at 199g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!
· 4.5m at 267g/t Au, including 4m at 301.29g/t Au MOUTH WATERING!
· 17m at 12.5g/t Au, including 2.5m at 6.84g/t Au and 4m at 47.09g/t Au
· Sukari surface exploration. An exploration programme has identified multiple shallow open pit gold satellite targets within the mining concession which have the potential to supplement Sukari mill feed, in the short to medium term, improving operational flexibility. Initial drill results from two of the newly identified areas include:
· Wadi Alam - 22m at 2.9g/t Au from 41m A NICE START
· V Shear East 10m at 2.9g/t Au from 41m DITTO
AND I WILL TAKE A PUNT ON DOROPO STARTING AT 200K OUNCES PER ANNUM IN 2024, WHICH WILL RAISE CEY PRODUCTION, TO 700K OUNCES PA, AND THEN THEY HAVE ABC COMING DOWN THE BACK STRAITS.
LOOKS A VERY ATTRACTIVE GROWTH PROFILE.
best
the gnome
One does pause to wonder why the US seems so focussed on yet another regime change when they have an unenviable record of picking the wrong horse, and creating a worse sitauation than that that existed before. Some, of course never learn.
And now we see yet another well worn path of failure, with the sanctions, which are adding to the pandemonium created by the pandemic. Who will suffer the most, and who will benefit?
Sanctions on Russian gold will have even less impact on Putin's war effort. A little like the LBMA "sanctions" on artisinal gold sourced from conflict zones or alike, which simply means the gold goes to willing buyers/processers by another route, without the blink of an eye.
"Compared to oil and gas, [gold] is their third largest or one of the largest export items. I don't think it's that consequential, just like with oil and gas. I imagine that Russia will find another home for it," ..... Pointing out that Russia has in fact been adding to its own gold reserves.
However, long-term, investors can expect an erosion of the dollar's strength. Weaponizing the U.S. dollar is going to damage its status in the long-term as the sole global reserve currency. Damage that is long overdue in my humble opinion. At best an exhorbitant legacy and privilege of years well and truly past.
In gold I trust long term, a bit like the Central Banks,
the gold gnome
In the month of May central banks around the world added a net 35t to global gold reserves. This represents the second consecutive month of net increases after a drop in March. This year the central banks of Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and India have been the main buyers but this month Germany was a net seller.
Purchases were dominated by the same central banks as in April. Turkey (13t), Uzbekistan (9t), Kazakhstan (6t), and India (4t) all added to their gold reserves once again in May, accounting for most of the month’s buying. In the Middle East, Qatar added 5t to its gold reserves in May, taking total gold reserves back to 56.7t, the same level as the start of 2022. Germany was the only notable seller during the month, reducing its gold reserves by 2t, likely for its longstanding coin-minting program.
Last week, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) also announced it had bought around 34 tonnes in June, making its total gold reserves to just over 130 tonnes. This is the first significant gold purchase from the CBI since September 2018 (6.5t).
Gold has recently moved through a support zone of $1787.03/oz as greenback strength persisted. The main consolidation low stands at $1676.01/oz. There is another support area at $1750.78/oz that could help stem the losses but the price action is looking pretty weak at the moment.
I would doubt Mr Bristow would know more about the controls on gold mineralisation or prospectivity of Egypt, by employing people of this knowledge and experience!
CEY does need to be every considered about protecting its position in Egypt, without doubt. Its competitive position can be lost very quickly. It needs to protect its Intellectual property!
the gnome
I often think there must be a better way than Western style democracy for West Africans.
You tend to get incompetent corrupt govts elected which after a few years, everyone gets p$seed off with, protests start politey and then get rough, which gets nowhere and then a coup de'tat..rinse and repeat
the gnome