Member Info for goldgnome

With a tariff here and a tariff there,

Here a tariff, there a tariff,

Everywhere a tariff,

Old Donny Trump had a new idea, E-I-E-I-O!

Well its on for young and old, in the land of hot air and thought bubbles. Love to see Trump and his coohorts anaylsyis on how this is going to work out ... Probability of a economic slowdown...very high. Probability of a tariff war...very high Probability of rational behaviour...very low

To describe Trump as a loose canon is not unreasonable

Most importantly probability fo gold hitting a new high ... very high

But I am biased, unlike Donald?

good luck to us all, great time for gold!!! and crypto ???

Crypto Prices Jump After Trump Announces Five Tokens for Strategic Reserve

Bitcoin, ether, solana, Ripple-linked XRP and cardano will be in the stockpile

the Gnome

If you look at the 30 year gold price graph just note what happened in 2008-2010. Looks like we are heading that way again ... sigh

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

Great for gold,

the gold gnome

You just cant keep creative people down !

Wall Street is once again creating and selling securities backed by everything—the more creative the better—including corporate loans and consumer credit-card debt, lease payments on cars, airplanes and golf carts, and payments to data centers. Once dominated by bonds backed by home mortgages, deals now reach into nearly every cranny of the economy.

UNBELIEVABLE? NAH, JUST ANOTHER DAY IN THE HOT AIR MACHINE, BUT THIS TIME THERE IS MORE HOT AIR ....

New U.S. issuance of some of the most popular flavors of publicly traded structured credit hit record levels in 2024 and are expected to surpass those tallies this year, according to S&P Global. New asset-backed securities totaled $335 billion last year. Collateralized loan obligations, or baskets of corporate debt, rose to $201 billion, also an all-time high.

Sales of securitized debt have been surging since the Covid-19 pandemic (NEVER WASTE A GOOD CRISIS), when the Fed lowered rates and investors were awash with cash and looking for investments, Flanagan said. “Everything is going to end up here,” he said.

That includes debt backed by money tied to artificial intelligence ( I FINALLY FIGURED OUT WHAT THIS IS AND WHY WE NEED IT. HUMAN "INTELLIGENCE" SHOWS A PROPENSITY TO NEVER LEARN?) , solar energy and even payments from plastic-surgery patients (BEFORE THE SAG CUTS IN). Bonds backed by leases on data centers and fiber-optic networks—which power companies’ AI operations—hit $4 billion in the first two months of this year, equivalent to one-third of total issuance in 2024, according to Finsight.

One of the hottest topics of conversation at the conference was the wave of money coming from investment firms doing their own massive private securitization deals.

WHO IS DOING THE BUSINESS? Banks are mostly middlemen because regulations instituted after 2008 curtailed their lending. That has opened the way for giant fund-management companies like KKR, Apollo Global Management and Ares Management to muscle in and make loans with their own capital.

Worth lookming at the Big Short again ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpCb3xjh-Kk

Good luck investors

the Gold Gnome

Always good to see Goldmans tipping Gold.

In their latest report, Goldman Sachs Research analyst Lina Thomas projects that gold will gain a further 8% in 2025 on its way to a fresh all-time high of $3,100 per ounce. The team previously projected gold prices would only rise to $2,890.

“The increased forecast is underpinned by higher-than-expected demand for gold from central banks, which have been increasing their reserves of the commodity since the freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the investment bank wrote.

Along with strong central bank demand, Goldman Sachs Research also anticipates increased purchases of gold ETFs as declining interest rates will boost gold prices and make gold more attractive to investors.

Wondering what Elon Musk with find in FORT KNOX...An IOU?

Gold breaking $3,000, which would only require a less than 3% rally from Monday’s prices, would be the latest milestone for a roaring 2020s for gold, which only crossed $1,000 for the first time during 2008’s great financial crisis and $2,000 for the first time during 2020’s COVID-19 pandemic.

Gold “clearly would benefit from universal tariffs,” according to JPMorgan’s head of cross asset strategy Fabio Bassi, while Goldman commodities strategist Lina Thomas wrote of gold’s “potentially persistent boost from elevated US policy uncertainty.”

Tariffs are going up everywhere it seems, flavour of the month for the pollies, Gold will be the flavour for investors ... for years to come

enjoy your weekend

the gnome

Please Mr Bond, I hope you are not suspecting that all is not transparent, effient and terribly effective in the LAND OF EXORBITANT HOT AIR...

Goodness what is the world coming to ... a couple of quick notes from far away ...

1. Buffet has gone to cash..lost the plot? or knows a lot?

2. The invested money is going off the ASX/public market into private...why?

3. Uncertainty is rampant, and this is a good thing for gold (generally) and REAL assets. If a company is on an extended P/E, and just does more of the same, it will be crucified...good buying opportunities might arise

4. AI is the next balloon show of hot air ... there will be rationalisation when people understand what it is in and the business models and the monetization. Watch Deep Seek and the Chinese...there is very little new in AI, and this favours the Chinese ... (long story, basically they are very good optimisiers, not so good at real iinvation, and have a 300% larger market than the US)

5. Copper is one to watch ... there is not enough to go around, and when this happens, strange things follow...forget about exploration disocveries, hasnt been any for too long...and the one that has been of note, is in a country you would not take your mother in law to?

6. Trump is an unproven wild card and one can argue a necessary diversion from the usual BS served up in the US, not to mention in Australia. What he is going to serve up, how and its lasting impact will be interesting. A step to the side, Covid19 completed the sinking of the US Health system and Trust in Doctors ...?

Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors - AMP

Good luck punters and investors (I am in the latter )

the Gnome

SPEAKING OF ELON MUSK: The billionaire also said that he would be looking into whether there is gold in Fort Knox, the depository in Kentucky for U.S. gold reserves, an idea that was raised a day earlier by Trump. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg on Thursday that there is an audit every year and that “all the gold is there.”

AND OF COURSE IF THERE IS A AUDIT EVERY YEAR, AND IT IS PAID FOR BY PUBLIC MONEY, THEN WHY ARENT THE RESULTS MADE PUBLIC. WHAT ABSOLUTE NONSENSE !!!!

GO GOLD, BEAT THE NONE.SENSE

The Gnome

Thats a great set of results from Anglo, to statre the opbvious. The Exploration or organic growth of this company is second to none. To recap ...

EXPLORATION SUCCESS OF THE PREVIOUS SEVEN YEARS CONTINUES ▲ 36% Mineral Reserve growth ▲ 31 Moz Mineral Reserve additions*

staggering, and outperforming Newmont and Barrick. The Silicon Project is magnificent.

Investors getting lost in ES are missing the pont and the boat.

I like the Div policy, does suggest investors are cared for.

best

The Gnome

M62, surely there is a govt ombudsmen. For example ... the Australian Financial Complaints Authority is a free and independent ombudsman service that resolves complaints by consumers and small businesses about financial firms.

https://www.afca.org.au/make-a-complaint

hang in, and get the govt to regulate what they should be regulating

good luck

the gnome

Ye sToothpastee

We are all getting older...but of course wiser?

cheers

the gnome

Amazing Skydiver. If its worth anything, I have been in such ludicrous situations. My advice. Pursue vigorously, take no prisoners. The "efficient and effective" system set up by those who supposedly knows better, should live up to its repuation and deliver

I wont bore you with the rubbish I have had to put up with, but in each case I have been very deliberate in my communications and pressure

good luck !!!

the gnome

Just seen the notes on"cant trade". I certainly can down in the colonies to the far south. We would have coup de Tat if we could not trade. Not to mention it would seem questionable at best that a FULL broking firm couldnot transact a Tier one stock, let alone any stock that was in fact trading on the public market. Quite Bizarre, worth a note to the relevant OMBUDSMAN...they generally get excited about this sort of rubbish, as they should

good luck,

Trump is great for gold ! We are going to see lots of Trump Bumps into the market, which will drive uncertainty, and this isgenerally very good for gold. $3,000 by April is my best, and that should be good for Anglo. Central Banks buying is v supportive. Then there is the question on how good is a strong US dollar for making US great again, and helping manage their massive debt. My bet it is not good and we can expect to see some manouvers on the value of the USD, which will be down...and one would suspect gold will be up.

So relaxed and comfortable (and able to trade !!)

the gnome

Well the US Market known for its irrational exuberance, hot air and BS, got a clear sense of what their hot air is worth with DEEPSEEK. There is a good chance that the US Mkt may take a lot more interest in ocmpanies that have real valuations, maybe soon?

DeepSeek, which last week released a new R1 model that claims to be as advanced as OpenAI’s on math, code and reasoning tasks. Tech gurus who inspected the model agreed. One economist asked R1 how much Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs will affect Canada’s GDP, and it spit back an answer close to that of a major bank’s estimate in 12 seconds. Along with the detailed steps R1 used to get to the answer.

More startling, DeepSeek required far fewer chips to train than other advanced AI models and thus cost only an estimated $5.6 million to develop. Other advanced US models cost in the neighborhood of $1 billion...!!!!

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.1%, driven by a 16.9% dive in Nvidia shares. Nvidia dominates the market in advanced AI chips. Its stock had surged more than 10-fold since early 2023—achieving a more than $3.3 trillion market valuation.

Things a little bit overvalued in the US market in the AI space, not to mention tech space.

Would you invest in a copany witha p/e of 75 or 125, which is in a highly competitive market, and which has very little or no moat? Or a company which produces something with a p/e of 20? One may argue about the utility of gold, but there is a ready market for it and a history fo trust in it as a store of wealth.

In the last year, Anglo's share price has gone up 60%, I dont mind!

cheers

the Gnome

Donald Trump's family meme coins have crashed amid his inauguration (LOL). His wife Melania's coin wiped market cap from $2 billion to $800 million on January 21, while $Trump halved its market cap gain, settling back down below $7 billion *but it did reach a stratlinig $70 billion at one stage!) World gone mad? betting on something that is unproductive, barely believable....Dutch tulips, adn some things dont change?

My summer reads

"A fish rots from the head"

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds: All Volumes - Complete and Unabridged"

should be a good year for gold, And Anglo. Watch the Silicon Project advance !

the gnome

Good grief Sotolo,

We cant have happy rants here? I think there is an incredible amount of qualified people in the world who have no idea on how things are going to play out...let alone why. So generally speaking in these times gold shines.. me too?

But what is happening is actullay quite new and revealing. Special interest monitorities cannot hide their dirty deeds...Bu%%er! Lets have a "peak". The special interest group in Israel ( a minority, but lets not worry too much about that) are failing to win their social license back, and their continual referal to deeds done in the past [10 years, 100 years, 1,000 years and so on], dont carry the same weight, as using smart BOMBs to murder ... Conservative figures show that more than 6,000 women and 11,000 children were killed in Gaza by the Israeli military over the last 12 months. Ok so what is smart about that?

So there is a lot of strange stuff going on, and one can argue that it is the usual crowd, but who knows who these people are.... Just who constructs a financial system that robs the poor to pay the rich? Who constructs a financial system that is so poorly designed and so unstable that it favours the ...rich ... and promotes non productive activities that trade currencies, trade options, hyrbrids, and ll these things you can trade sitting on a deck chair in the middle of nowhere

https://www.encyclopedia.com/politics/legal-and-political-magazines/robbing-poor-pay-rich

https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/robbing-the-poor-to-pay-the-rich-how-the-united-states-keeps-medicines-from-the-114586/

Good for something solid like gold, that strange people cannot replicate as they wish ....

good night and good luck

the gnome

You are correct, they report pe of 17.8

The forward pe of about 7 is very interesting, and this appears to be achievable

The company reports very conservatively, and maybe far to conservative to excite the hot air brigade in New York. The CEO maynot be the man to do this, so one to watch.

Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Anglogold Ashanti PLC in the last 3 months. The average price target is $33.24 with a high forecast of $36.95 and a low forecast of $30.00. The average price target represents a 39.61% change from the last price of $23.81..... 50% of analysis in NY have it pegged as a buy, of which 75% have it as strong buy...Anglo have animpressive organic exploration growth profile probably the best in the global gold miners .. my guess is it may well be a takeover target by a company which has a much higher pe ratio and who wants to leap forward

Comparing with Evolution, which had a 15% high mkt cap, and lower resources and reserves and grade, it would be a standout, ... who has a record of buying second hand mines.

Just a few notes in the New Year ... but it could be very interesting times. Good year for gold, is mine and others tips. I think they way Trump is fronting, he will create massive havoc and uncertainty into the global market, which is already fragile. The US funding for wars on multiple fronts is not going to help anyone unless you are in the munitions game. I have got some exposure to DFND ETF, and infrastructure (someone is going to get the contracts to rebuild the mess being created by all of the SMART bombs and missiles fired by the dummies)

best of luck to us all !!!

the gnome

Good Morning.

No share transfers to those deep in the colonies. IN fact no notice, no letter. I guess it might be a bit too hard for Computershare to organise this, they probably have some New Year celebrations to complete etc etc..LOL So much for the bit about efficient markets, never did believe that BS.

The Anglo share price is in the hands of the hot air brigade, and so to get any attention you must be spruiking a lot of hot air. I see some of the companies on NY stock exchange are on a P/E of 100, Tesla on 112, LOL .. I just cant see myself stumping up 112 times what Tesla earns now, for a share. Maybe its his buddy who is going to tarriff off all of the competition. AngloGold P/E 28 ?

Happy, Healthy, Prosperous and .... LUCKY NEW YEAR

I think Powell got it wrong. The US Economy is not what he or the economists prattle on about. They live in a subparallel Universe ...

The coming year will be driven by geopolitical fragmentation, competing trade blocks, and de-dollarization, and in order to navigate this new world successfully, investors will need to leverage diversifiers like gold and Bitcoin, according to BlackRock.

All this is likely to accelerate de-dollarization and support gold purchases.

“Elevated global tensions are accelerating the rewiring of supply chains,” ... 2,000 US troops now invaded Syria ... Lessons learnt from the FU's in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya (etc) not learnt. Great definition of insanity

Keep doing the same thing but expect a different result ...

The Fed can say and do what they like, but there are other people with very loud voices and clear intentions. Game on in the US

The farce is ending, and so will a lot of other things that has made the US the joke it has become

With a 4:15 a.m. ET social-media post on Wednesday, Elon Musk declared that a must-do spending bill “should not pass.” By early evening, the bill was dead, leaving the government barreling toward a weekend shutdown just before Christmas. Lawmakers who might have underestimated Musk’s ability to shake up Washington were suddenly having second thoughts.

Over the course of Wednesday, Musk pressed for Congress to kill the bill. He encouraged his more than 200 million followers on X, the social-media platform that he owns, to call their representatives to vote against it, and he warned that Republicans who voted for it should lose their congressional seats in two years. He also said Congress shouldn’t pass any more legislation until President-elect Donald Trump takes office, which would ensure a partial government shutdown until Jan. 20.

“Stop the steal of your tax dollars!” he posted on X. “Call your elected representatives now. They are trying to railroad this thing through today!”

Yes, the US is bankrupt in many ways! If it was not such a conflicted morass guided blindly by a deep state it may haul itself out into the sunlight, but thats a dream !!! Apart from financially, ethics and morals left the room a long time ago.

Start a war? no problems...lets first define or invent the enemy and so on and so forth.

Quite appalling that such morass forms the basis of the financial structure of the world. I am sure things will get better when the Chinese and Indians will bring their logic to the for, and their huge markets will support themselves and their currencies...built on gold!

best

the gnome

London | The London Stock Exchange is on course for its worst year for departures since the financial crisis, as fears mount that more FTSE 100 businesses will quit the UK in favour of New York.

A total of 88 companies have delisted or transferred their primary listing from London’s main market this year with only 18 taking their place, according to the London Stock Exchange Group.

The London Stock Exchange has also been depleted by a series of private equity takeovers. Bloomberg

This marks the biggest net outflow of companies from the main market since 2009, while the number of new listings is also on course to be the lowest in 15 years as initial public offerings remain scarce and bidders target London-listed groups.

The exodus has continued despite efforts by the British government, regulators and the LSE to boost the City’s attractiveness by reforming market rules and the domestic pensions system.

Ashtead, the equipment rental company with a £23 billion ($46 billion) market valuation, this month became the latest big business to propose moving its primary listing from London to New York. It would join six other FTSE 100 groups to have ditched the blue-chip index in favour of overseas venues since 2020.