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Tornadotony
The exhorbitant privilege the US have in having their dollar "elected" as the global currency, is good for one country, and thats about it. Guess which one? ! Debt does not matter if it is all in your own currency, of which you can print as much as you like. All the rest of the world finds this very hard to do, and as such suffer much when they have high interest rates hoisted on them, which of course, favour the US. Funny about that? Hoisted on them, well lets have a look at our robust chaps at the Reserve Bank of Australia, which worship and follow every step taken by the US Fed...even if it does not make any sense to Australia? Independence?
The Fed have made one mistake after the other, which has resulted in overshoots, and undershoots, whih make a mad persons walk look sane. The negative effective interest rates were for too long, The Volker correction in the 1980's was an overkill. Greenspan was almost an incoherent Greenspin, but they worshipped his every word?
Powell scrapped his original address, according to two people who spoke to him, and instead delivered unusually brief remarks with a simple message—the Fed would accept a recession as the price of fighting inflation. Well reads like a careful piece of strategic analysis doesnt it?
The Fed has two mandates: full employment and stable prices; officials define the latter with a formal 2% inflation target (NOT A LOT OF SUBSTANCE IN THIS MIND YOU, NOT MORE THAN A THUMB SUCK). For most of the past two decades the Fed could focus on full employment because inflation seldom deviated much from 2%. Today, though, with inflation at 8.3%, the highest since Mr. Volcker’s tenure, Powell has concluded that, like Volcker, he must devote his attention to that problem, even if doing so takes a serious near-term toll on employment...OH WELL, THERE GOES 50% OF THE MANDATE IN A BLINK. AND THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT! We have wage rises, salary rises all on rapid display, almost at the same time as we have no evidence of productivty increases. In fact productivity declines are the order of the day. So how are the clowns going to contain the wages increase, which has stagnated for years, and is now needled by the inflationary pressures, which result in singificant portion from Fed previous over-stimulated stimuli for too long?
The clowns are doing so well.
Its a penalty these days if you have a brain,
the gnome
some other news ... interesting
Deposits at U.S. banks fell by a record $370 billion in the second quarter, the first decline since 2018.
Deposits fell to $19.563 trillion as of June 30, down from $19.932 trillion in March, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
The outflow in the quarter isn’t a problem for banks, which are sitting on more deposits than they want. Deposits in the banking system usually stay relatively stable, but swelled by some $5 trillion in the past two years due to pandemic stimulus. Now, a series of Federal Reserve rate increases is taking some of that money out of the system, in part by decreasing demand for loans and increasing demand for government bonds.
2013
'15
'20
-0.50
-0.25
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
$1.50
trillion
When the Fed started increasing its benchmark rate this year, banks expected—and wanted—some customers to move their money to places offering higher interest payments, such as government bonds.
As recently as April, many analysts scoffed at the idea bank deposits could decline this year. But the Fed’s pace of rate increases has been faster than expected, and the effect on deposits is more pronounced.
the gnome
worth a look and listen, Charlie Munger ....
a brief history lesson on assets, debt, with a view to the future , by a 90 year old seasoned investor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5UCmsXpngA
we will need some luck
best
Sorry about the rushed wording (and numbering LOL), but things to ask
>What is the history of Sandstone Gold fields discoveries and mining in the last 50-60 years..do not rely on these guys to tell you, but you can google this sort of info relatively quickly and well
>How are they going to have more success than others ..any new technology, evidence of smarts, or is this another grid drill to you drop exercise.
>How are they trying to predict the existence of grade, continuity of mineralisation
>what are their claimed underground ounces, and how much reports to a minable reserve? People make some great claims in underground resources and kick the can down the road in terms of decalring a minable reserve. Be very careful. unless you are a speculator
My advice is mostly from a long term view..that is they are going to mine what they say they have.
its a tough market at the moment if you are a speculator, and my temptation as a speculator is to sit things out.
Quite happy to buy CEY on weakness events, which are primariliy due to short term fluctations of the gold price, as I know what fluctates up will fluctuate down, but longer term, gold has got to go higher.
There are more regulations coming through, as the regulators have a lot to clean up. I can t see a good argument for trusing the governments or central banks at the moment. Now we have the RBA coming out and saying they are going to keep hiking interest rates at infinitum to fight the inflation demons. It bears as much logic as the interest rates being essentially negative for the last 5 or 6 years, what a joke! In whose iterest was this? What was the real result of this?? From one extreme to another, quite ludicrous, and they get paid handsomely for their profound wisdom!
We have some real wage increase pressures here as a result, but productivty gains are zero to negative. So this does not compute. We will be run by Unions it seems and this is not good for the economy.
Hard to think recession is not staring us in the face
Q: Can Britain’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, fix this economic mess? The Bank of England? Anyone?
Max: To a degree, yes. The government is working on a large bailout package to cap the price of energy for businesses and homes. That could stave-off the immediate cost of living crunch and in the short term push down inflation, which is primarily driven by rising energy bills. That could make the predicted coming recession shallower and shorter. However the medium term is cloudier. The bailout combined with tax cuts the new government will implement could keep inflation running at a relatively high-rates. The Bank of England will likely have to continue to raise rates to stamp this down, subduing economic activity over the longer term.
good luck !
good luck !!!
the gnome
Good morning Rebess
Things I picked up on
1. Sizable convertible note sitting on them. I wold need to see the terms of this
2. Significant Resource base
22Mt @ 1.1g/t for 784.3koz Au
Open pit and underground
The style of mineralisation and grade may preclude underground mining, so might be a few "hopeful" ounces in the mix
3. Key future open pit production location
Currently largest open pit resource at Central Sandstone
Potentially opens up access to Two Mile Hill UG...Shillington 2.3Mt @ 1.2g/t Au for 86,500oz
Two Mile Hill 2.1Mt @ 1.1g/t Au for 71koz
Thats NOT A LOT OF OUNCES, and they are resource ounces, what is the strip ration, CONVERSION OF THESE MEAGRE OUNCES TO PROFITABLE OUNCES??!! gold ounces is a key question.
3. Key driver for Sandstone acquisition Big broad intersections
343.9m @ 1.29, 224.0m @ 1.48, 352.8m @ 1.5g/t,...BUT THIS IS DRILLED DOWNDIP !!!!.....
4. CLAIM TO HAVE LITTLE EXPLORATION IS INTERESTING GIVEN SANDSTONE HISTORY. "Gold mining at the Sandstone area stretches back over 100 years. In 1894 a prospector discovered gold about 20 km south of present-day Sandstone and, in 1903, gold was found within a few hundred meters of the town. From 1903 to 1916, 930,000 ounces of gold were mined in town." AND THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF WORK SINCE THEN.
I EXPECT THE LOW HANGING FRUIT HAS BEEN WELL AND TRULY PICKED OVER EXPLORATION WISE. THE EASY MINING OPEN PIT MIGHT BE BOTHERED BY STRIP RATIO AND BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF FREE CASH FLOW. THE CONVERTIBLE NOTE, POSSIBLY MEANS THEY HAVE HAD TO DIG DEEP TO GET COVERING INVESTMENT.
Just a couple of things to watch for. Happy to sit this one out
best
the gnome
Thanks Cowichan
If you looks craefully at high resolution imagery of Egypt int he gold arreas, you will see that there is a quite a lot of "small scale" gold minng going on, using large excavators. Small scale and artisinal miners do not tend to use these, as they lack capital. There seems to be an elemnet of "organisation" in the small scale mining, and I have hear rumour that the Egyptian military maybe involved..but it is 3rd hand info at best
"Small scale mining employs 100 million people world wide. It is poorly misunderstood in many countries by urban decision makers who view it as illegal activity. However, in some countries such as Morocco, Bolivia and South Africa and Sudan, it is actively encouraged by the government. In one region of South Africa, the government issued 400 permits allowing the employment of 3.7 million people from small scale mining with 30 million people depending on it from indirect activities. In 2015 Sudan, south of the border with Egypt reformed its mining laws to include artisanal mining, 198 small scale mining companies registered and employed 1 million people. The wisdom of developing law for artisanal mining has not crossed the border between Sudan and Egypt yet. Egypt has no government policy to encourage small scale mining, while it has a wealth of dispersed mineral resources in the Eastern Desert, and some in the Western Desert and on the shores of Lake Nasser. "
One small scale model being used elswewhere consists of building cooperatives for artisanal miners. Collectives or cooperatives of miners can be formed to encourage reinvestment in community development, construction of schools, hospitals. If this approach is adopted, it could lead to the employment of millions of Egyptians, while the conventional large scale approach will only employ few thousand people. The triangle between Marsa Alam, Quseir and Qena forms a good site to establish mining cooperatives...
So I am not sure what is happening in Egypt, but it is very misleading to infer small scale is in fact small scale, as the "employment" and environmental degradation is aything but small scale....and it is happening in Egypt
best
the gnome
Jeremy Grantham highlights the eerie parallels between this year’s sharemarket gyrations and the bursting of previous sharemarket super bubbles.
If legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is right, we’re now entering the vicious, and most brutal, phase in the collapse of the “super bubble” in share, bond and house prices.
His warning comes as a deepening sense of gloom is gripping the US sharemarket, which has now fallen 9.2 per cent since the bear market rally peaked in August. It is down 18.5 per cent so far this year.
European sharemarkets have suffered even heftier losses, falling by more than 25 per cent this year. Analysts are warning that the European shares have further to fall, as the region’s energy crisis intensifies.
And the local share market has dropped to the lowest level in seven weeks, as investors worry that synchronised tightening by the world’s major central banks will choke global growth and reduce demand for commodities.
At the same time, growing inflation fears have sparked a savage sell-off in US bond markets, with the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds climbing to 3.35 per cent, while the yield on 30-year bonds has surged to the highest level since 2014.
Yields on risky junk bonds and leveraged loans have pushed sharply higher, as investors worry about the growing risk that debt-laden companies will default on their loan repayments.
The 2022 bear market rally has followed the same template, with the S&P 500 clawing back 58 per cent of its losses from the June low to its intraday peak on August 16.
It is, Grantham argues, “looking eerily similar to these other historic super bubbles”.
But these bear market rallies only allow investors a brief respite, before the fourth and final stage of the super bubble, when fundamentals deteriorate and the market plunges to a new low.
Could be a good time to do cash and gold ...
best
the gnome
and now that I have your attention
the link
https://pro.paradigmnewsletters.org/p/awn_marketscream2_0522/LAWNY6AE/?cake_s1=09_76332025_1ff06b92-9fd1-43ea-b444-ea0a712df4f5&h=true
the gnome
For all those who would like a little something extra with their porridge this morning, can I recomend :-
“Blood-Curdling Scream”
Exclusive: In this free, exclusive interview, a former government insider issues a startling message to Americans: "This will be the single fastest and deepest correction of our lifetimes and the dam is already starting to break... the markets just let out a blood-curdling scream. Many, many Americans are going to suffer"
He has been screaming for a while now, but now perhaps he is on the money?
best
the gnome
The T and J show cant even make the gold market look half way decent, LOL. And the real laugh is they get paid to make and manage this sham? They should do some head counting and see that the big market is where there are more people, and when you put India, Russia, China, SE Asia together, thats about it. The gold is being accumulated in these countries and they all think it is time for a break from the ridiculous exorbitant privilege of the highly engineered flatulent US$? Africa deserves a break from the BS from the north, and they will have their rising sooner than one thinks.
Now to the clowns we have in Australia (move aside Tom and Jerry !~), with another wonderful Job Summit under their belt. The big NEW event to emerge from a few days of dribble, drivel and spit (The government will not rule out making multi-employer bargaining compulsory?!!), was to come out with an idea that failed 30 years ago, and to offer this up with the advice, that "this time it will be different"? Insanity with a suit and tie, and now near gender balance, LOL. Again people getting paid well to make fools of themselves.
About to be buried by the unelected unions, with disputes set to further hovel productivty (which is not looking good ...very sick really!)...Unlimited single sick days, “healthy option” meal allowances and a flat 15 per cent increase to night shift pay rates for station managers, upgrade new inner-city trains to union specifications, all now on the menu to boost...productivity further.
The lunatics have a firm grip on the asylum, and with any luck I will be able to catch the last boat of refugees to Singapore.
Tom and Jerry were really quite respectable.
best to all,
bury some bars int he back yard
the gnome
Interesting chat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2vqnpXWM0Y
The best is the magic wont be able to happen, recesson for Europe, UK.
One of the good aspects of Centamin growth pipeline is htat there are few exposures to permitting delays.
The demise of St Barabara's foolish foray into Canada (they are not alone but thats another story) to purchase Atlantic Gold, is that the permitting times have blown out considerably (years), and they still think they will make a decent return on investors money? One can appreciate the significant cost of delays (often not talked about in Mining Circles for obvious reasons) by reference to the below article, which although talking about innovation (what was that again?) projects applies equally to Mining Projects and investments.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/aware-financial-impact-slow-project-execution-your-npv-de-kempenaer/
"If you allow the timeline to slip by just 6 months (10% of the lifetime of your product), your NPV will have declined by 20%. So avoid unnecessary delays, make innovation (OR MINING) project decision at the time when they are needed, not a week or month or quarter later. Those decision are on your future cash flow!"
What you rarely see is a reworking of the mining projects financial metrics when such delays occur !!! Water under the bridge, or off a ducks back!
Perseus has demonstarted the ease of permitting in Cote Ivoire, and has had a win for investors
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/gold-s-rising-and-fallen-stars-cross-paths-in-reporting-season-finale-20220831-p5be57
St Barbaras share price went from $4.50 to $0.74 at the same time period Perseus went from $0.40 to $1.80-$1.60. Know which investor group ois happy?
SO I AM FAR MORE RELAXED ABOUT THE QUANTITY QUALITY OF CENTAMINS GROWTH PIPELINE,
best
the gnome
Thankyou Spoonington for the tip, IDX have been punished, certainly interesting figures, and there seems to be a solid progression in last few days ...
Self evident, I wish it was that self evident to those in the pollies positions.
best
the gnome
Lower quality advice for lower fees? No thanks
SAME OLD RUBBISH, GETTING WORSE
“Lowering standards to lower fees” is the proposed approach to reforming financial advice?..THE NEW SUGGESTION FROM THE NEW GOVT?!
That’s a strong “Hell to the no” from me.
See, there’s a review underway, covering financial advice.
And boy… as you can tell, WE have some thoughts.
Apparently, if reports in the Australian Financial Review are to be believed (and there’s no reason not to) the review is going to recommend that financial advisors no longer have to apply the ‘best interest’ test, when giving financial advice.
Whoa! WTF!!
If these changes go through, financial advisors would no longer have to ensure their advice was in the clients’ best interest?
Think about that for a minute.
Imagine being a doctor, and not having your patients’ best interest as your number one obligation.
Or a lawyer, and not having to act in the best interest of your client.
And yet this review is (apparently) about to let financial advisors act in some other way?
Apparently ‘good’ advice will now be enough.
Goodness me!
Maybe, after a decade or so, the industry is about to win, putting itself ahead of its clients again?
Oh, they don’t actually say that.
They say they’re worried that advice isn’t affordable enough.
See, having to act in clients’ best interest is apparently too expensive.
And if they don’t have to do that any more, they can make advice cheaper.
Sure, it may not be in our best interest any more, but at least it’s affordable.
If that sentence doesn’t strike you as completely absurd, you need to read it again.
Apparently the options are:
-- We’ll do what’s in your best interest, but it’ll be expensive; or
-- You can pay less, but we can’t promise the advice is in your best interest
Frankly, I’m not sure I have the words.
Some people will say the administrative burden of the ‘best interests test’ excludes those who can’t afford the fee.
I’m sure that’s right. After all, most financial advisors are driving 15-year old Toyota Camrys, right?
A cheap shot? Maybe.
And they're not bad guys and girls. Frankly, they're right -- the admin burden is a debacle.
They're not wrong about the problem.
But it's the proposed solution that stinks.
See, there IS a problem.
But it’s not the one you think.
It’s not the ‘best interests’ duty that’s the problem.
It’s the fact our system is so bloody complex that so many of us need advisors! NOW why is that?!!!
the gnome.
Interesting commentary from the USA. The commentary from Oz is house sales and prices are heaidng south ... as commented on before.
Home Sales Are Crashing Faster Than the Bursting of the 2005 Housing Bubble
THU, AUG 18, 2022 - 1:08PM
By Christopher Puplava, CRPC®
Chief Investment Officer, Financial Sense® Wealth Management
Existing home sales continued their historic plunge in July to reach the lowest level in 7 years outside of COVID, down roughly 1.7 million home sales in just the last six months.
To put the current pace of decline into perspective, the housing bubble peaked in 2005 and then rolled over heading into 2006, but the speed of the decline did not accelerate until it began to fall off a cliff in 2007.
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/20346/home-sales-are-crashing-faster-bursting-2005-housing-bubble
Powell’s hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting sent Wall Street tumbling on Friday night and the pain spread across the local bourse from the opening bell, with the Australian tech sector dropping 4.4 per cent amid some spectacular falls, including Life360 (down 8.4 per cent), Block (down 7.8 per cent), Megaport (down 9.1 per cent) and Zip (down 8.9 per cent).
There are a lot of fintechs who have razor thin moats, but of course we dont like to use this in the analysis of value. Its all done in the clocks and the likes, the mega scale potential in the drop of a hat (or 50% in value), which is what I dislike, as there is not a lot of substance in the likes.
I think this bodes well for gold, and I suspect and hope the extraordinary privielege given to the US$ is eroded, and sent to history or the archives.
best
the gnome
Couldnt agree more about the buring of Oil. Simply dont drive a petrol car (etc). Everyone can make this decision or in fact decisions now. If you look at the way people drive cars, it is quite ludicrous. So many cars with only one person in it, at least in Oz. Is this the most responsible driving? To drive 5-15 kms to work? and then go to the gym, for exercise? Why not combine the 2 and ride? So many simple things we could do, and yet we dont?
I think there is far better future in nuclear as a longterm base energy source, and am more optimisitic about being able to dispose any waste very easily in the not too distant future. The technology exists now. If we are concerned we can impliment now.
I recently met an outback station woner, who said he was not going to do any small burn offs, because of the CO2 emissions and impact in the atmosphere. So the plan was to let the dead eucalyptius leaves to lie around to a lightning strike? He was running 8,000 cattle on his property?
One of the issues we dont talk about is human population growth. Is there just too many? Why? What do we do? When? How? to hard?
Another we dont talk about is the cost of energy for developing countries. THe US Empire was developed on cheap energy
and so on and so forth. There are many things thta can be done , now.
I love the concept of AISC ot produce an ounce of gold, why dont we have this to produce a kwatt of energy...? etc
best
the gnome
No problems with knoking out the gas flairing, and I am a long term environmentalist.
I am also a long term scientist, and the level of scientific rigour in the climate change debate is substandard in the main stream mess.
best
the gnome
Thanks Cowichan
The Australians are very straight out about their views (that is until they turn into pollitcians), and known for it (and we wont mention Juian Assange, nor Rupert). I recently joined a comfortable board of Directors in a UK listed company, and apparently transformed what was a "tea and bickies" affair, to a very rowdy and unruly board, where there was plenty of "frank discussion". The SP of the company has moved up in unsion with the amount of debate in board meetings, and thats they way it should be?!
Aside, Cransfields comments on St Barbara are in line with mine. In fact I would go one firther and certainly not invest in St Barbaba!
The notion that a pre-revenue explorer, Genesis with a $400 million market capitalisation could seek merger equivalence with St Barbara would have seemed fanciful in July 2018, when the latter was one of Australia’s top five gold miners with a market capitalisation of more than $2.2 billion...now worth about $750m
But after peaking above $5 per share in July 2018, St Barbara shares had slumped to just 75¢ by June 30 following a tough period in which it issued $490 million worth of scrip to help fund what turned out to be a failed $768 million acquisition of Canada’s Atlantic Gold.
Permitting delays have rendered the Atlantic assets impotent and the unravelling of the acquisition has coincided with St Barbara making slower than expected progress on refurbishment of the Gwalia mine (no mean feet at the depths they mine !!! and explore at) and slow progress on a plan to expand its Simberi mine in Papua New Guinea (not the safest of jurisdictions and has a few issues in itself to be polite).
“Having done extensive DD [due diligence] on each other’s assets we can see operational synergies that can pair the right rocks with the right mills and the right skills with the right mines, to provide operational levers to de-risk assets to the benefit of shareholders and deferring or ultimately eliminating material capex [capital spending] in this hot inflationary environment. MARVELLOUS TURN OF WORDS, BUT ITS THE TURNS OF EARTH THAT ARE THE REAL MEASURE
“Consolidation not only makes sense, it is actually being demanded by our shareholders. Good grief, do they know what they wish for?
“We may have lit the fuse on consolidation in the region, but from my personal perspective, the timing or structure of such deals is less important than actually getting deals done.
“We have time and capital with over $100 million in our bank account. We will remain patient and disciplined on our overarching five-year strategy, which we are only four months into.” Very glad none of my money is involved in this strategy, or in either companies.
There are better bets
best
the gnome