ITS NOT BAD TO SHAKE THE TREE, AND GET RID OF THE FLOTSAM, ESTABISH A SOLID BASE, AND THEN MOVE FORWARD. SEE IT QUITE OFTEN. THE SILLY THINGS SELL, AND THEN CURSE WHEN THE SP STEADILY BUILDS AGAIN.
AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE AND OTHERS, THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. THE LEVELS OF DEBT, THE LACK OF ANY CREDITABLE GAME PLAN, OR EVEN ANY MEDICAL, POLITCAL OR ECONOMICAL CONSENSUS,LET LAONE LEADERSHIP (ANYWHERE?) DOES NOT BODE WELL. LET ALONE WHETHER WE SHOULD PURSUE ELIMINATION OR CONTAINMENT, VIRUS OR HEXY, OR RUSSIAN OR UK OR OZ ETC ...AND THEN IF WE HAVE A VACCINE, THEN HOW DOES IT GET REPLICATED/MANUFACTURED, GOOD FOR ALL? ...
I EXPECT THE RUDDERLESS SHIP WILL SKIM ACROSS THE CHOPPY WATERS, UNTIL SOME BRIGHT YUNG SPARK/S COME UP WITH A PLAN THE BOOMERS COULDN'T DREAM OF .
The doctors and publics reaction to Trumps claims is a bit like the markets reactions to other Trump statements.
REFRESH: On March 21 President Trump touted hydroxychloroquine – and its biochemical cousin, chloroquine – as potential “game changers” in the battle against COVID-19. Two months later, he announced on national television that he had been taking the drug himself as a preventative treatment...(why did we need a vaccine again?)
During the 10-week period between Feb. 17 and April 27 doctors wrote approximately 483,000 more prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine than in the same time period in 2019. The week after President Trump mentioned the drug during a press conference, prescriptions were up more than 200% compared to the previous year.
So Trump makes statements, like we are through the worse, a vaccine around the corner, and the little boy cried wolf....
It does make you wnder how shallow the thinking is in the market herd...or is it just the herd following the latest TRUMPet, ... over another precipice?
Pehraps the market has chased into the Airline uinesses, travel businesses or even airport infrastructure?All dependent on government policy in regard to handling the COVID19 virus, a the sudden appearance of a covid vacine (which has been a ong time not coming so far), then the access/distribution tot hat vaccine, when the economic recovery might happen (and how by whom) is far from certain. International traffic at Sydney Airport was down 97.2 per cent in July, with domestic traffic down 88.2 per cent, and August looks likely to deliver broadly similar results....and on it goes and when it stops o on knows.
Basically means the POG has a stronger influence on the SP than the Divi. Its a short sighted market view, obviously. Perhaps the market thinks there is better value with the tech stocks with a p/e of 101 plus, or a zombie company. Interesting to know who is making the market SP right now. The new to the market punters after a fast buck, or the long term value chasers or what?
hang on ye of good faith
Couldn't agree more Cowichan. The M and A is an easy growth for the CEO's who do not or cannot wait and plan better for organic success (exploration/discoveries). Shareholders have suffered for decades by this sort of rubbishy narrative.."this time it will be different", the other way of looking at it, is that the CEO's don't believe in exploration success because it rarely happens at the right rate for them to positively effect their bonuses.
There is a lot that is unhnged in the US at the moment and going forward.
Howard Marks: the provision of liquidity by the Fed and the continuation of low interest rates are "very, very important to what the market has been doing for the last four or five months and what it does in the future." Marks released a memo on Wednesday, where he pointed out that in the last five months, the Fed has swollen its balance sheet by $3 trillion and the Treasury has added $3 trillion to the elected deficit, for a total increase of liquidity in the economy of $6 trillion.
Part to prop up an ever increasing number of Zombie Companies, but hte trouble is..."The Fed can provide liquidity but it can't provide solvency," added Marks. In other words, "it can't make a zombie company a money-maker." So whats the point? Whats the long game, and what even is the short game. Survival? Support companies at all costs, but when will the government start to won those companies...esp those that go no where???
Wonder when the shakeout of the companies which do not have decent earnings will start.
Factors for SP
1. gold exposure
2. 6% dividend
3. sustainable dividend
4. Possibly higher dividend
5. New mangement prowess in difficult times
6. Egypt opps opening, and CEY well positioned
7. A growth story on the make (West Africa)
so could be a good day at the office?
The new phrase coming out of the US is "Pandemic Depression". In the upcoming issue of Foregin Affair, Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart explore the massive economic contraction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic that could push as many as 60 million people into extreme poverty and bring globalization to a grinding halt.
While the economic consequences of this crisis are straightforward, the road to recovery is treacherous—and the social consequences are more difficult to predict.
sad, and will need some careful leadership (not obvious where this will come from)
Yes, it does look like a dash for the door! Has obviously seen better opportunities elsewhere.
Great result for Teranga in West Africa. Thse guys are very solid,if not consrvative operators.
In Oz the mian source of the dividend streams has been the banks. They were worshipped by all manner of investors for years, if not decades for paying out about a 6% dividend regulalrly. Well that has stopped now, and will be al long time before it starts again, if ever.
So CEY on a 6% dividend is fabulous, and it looks sustainable in these times, if not expandable!
great days for CY true believers!
Well things have finally exploded and imploded, almost simultaneously in Oz. Perhaps a more obvious view of the progress and outcomes of the governments and academic experts managing the virus. The tip of the iceberg, where the iceberg is coming into view...
'A complete mess': angry business demands clarity from Victoria
Hundreds of business leaders frustrated with the lack of clarity from the Victorian government over economic closures went live in a series of live hook-ups on Tuesday night.
The level of anger and confusion is extreme, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg have contacted Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas and Premier Daniel Andrews ...
The concerns cover almost every aspect of business and include supply and distribution, manufacturing, construction, organising permits for so-called "permitted workers", IT, legal services, online retail, fuel and food delivery.
"The situation in Victoria is a complete mess,'' chief executive of the Australian Industry Group Innes Willox.
"Twelve hours before lockdown, businesses have no certainty about how they can open, the circumstances in which they can open, and how they can remain open."
"CEOs face the prospect of having to explain why they are opening to police officers which is untenable."
"The government has issued vague directives and demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of how business actually operates."
One source said "the state of confusion is off the charts''.
"People have no idea what's going on.''
On Tuesday night, Mr Frydenberg spoke in a series of hook-ups to the leaders of more than 500 businesses....
and on the circus goes,
can one be;ieve in aything but gold?
My car is a Toyota GR Supra. I got sucked in by the GTS 86 (the engineering, ride, balance was perfection), and then I went to heaven!
The GTS was magnificent, ... but now the Spura goes into the high performance side, 0-100 k/hr in 4.4 secs and tops at about 250 kph, and I am away to the races!
Sadly I have clocked up $1,500 of speeding fines, and I didnt get out of second gear!
Finally we ee the business leaders start to tall about the ridiculous handling/management of the virus. Orica CEO came out yesterday, and today we see MacNameee come out. The "cure" is far worse than the disease, and will probably our last the disease by decades! as someof us have been saying for a long time. The effects of the "cure" are incalculatable, but are going to be very severe.
"The chairman of global biotechnology giant CSL, Brian McNamee, has warned that Melbourne's lockdown will have "devastating" economic, social and health costs and called for governments to put forward a credible virus strategy that is "not seen as blunt or punitive to the wider society".
The Melbourne-based medical doctor and chairman of Australia's second most valuable company, which is working to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, Dr McNamee said elimination of the virus in Victoria "seems remarkably ambitious from where we are now".
Dr McNamee questioned the Victorian government's stage four lockdown imposed this week.
"The direct and indirect costs are staggering and the devastating consequences are not well enough understood," he said in an interview with The Australian Financial Review.
"We're harming the social contract with our own society and particularly our youth and small businesses."
Most rural towns in Australia have not had the virus. Most in Victoria, but its all now in stage 4 lockdown?
Australia was designed with Social distancing in mind, first convicts from the UK society, and then we found out Australia has 7.7 million square kilometers of area, and we struggle with a population of 25 million. Then we all bought quarter acre blocks and put 2 m high fences around them. I am joking here but the strategy is appalling and poorly thought out.
In fact the strategy is a manfucature of the ridiculous frantic anxiety generated by the media, 24/7. We had Australia burn down in the last anxiety attack!?
We need commonsense to be regaiined, and business leaders to step over the media scrum and their servants the politicians.
In the meantime I cannot see anyone believing recovery stories and a rosy future but rather insure against a catastrophic economic collapse, and buy GOLD. We already seem to have a collapse by the communities in their governments.
In some ways I would love to be wrong, but gold has got a lot of upside to it. Nice price action on POG last night, be good to see CEY SP benefit more from this action.
The affairs of Europe have always been a distant interest, but worth a comment, as are those of the Central Bankers (a group of well educated economists with no worldy experience, think Greenspan)
Since 2000, Western central bankers have decided they know better than the markets and replaced price discovery mechanisms with a price-fixing system run by them. The results have been dismal, as they always are when humans fall into the trap of a Hayekian “FATAL CONCEIT”.
"Bureaucratic fixing of prices has a 100% failure rate in economics, this has been proven in all other sectors of the economy and will now be proven to be the case for central banks in the financial sector."
On this score, consider major asset returns since the new millennium began.
Amazingly, the BEST PERFORMER HAS BEEN GOLD, which is a investment whose main merit to some is to protect savers against the idiocy of central bankers.
The second best investment has been Italy’s bond market (!). The flip side of cratering Italy’s corporate sector has been a relentless flow into government paper. Thank you Mr. Draghi for helping create one of the worst ever mal-investment episodes, which has been paid for by the suffering of Italians.
Third has been the US stock market.
Fourth on THE list has been two-year Swiss franc bonds—a substitute for gold. It is doubtful that Switzerland, with a current account in excess of 7% of GDP, needed the money.
Last on the list is the eurozone equity market, which since 2000 has returned 3.5% a year, and since 2007 a princely 0%.
Yet everyone is happy in Europe today because an agreement to issue some common bonds has been reached in Brussels. Never mind that this will make no difference so long as Italy’s natural rate is negative. I’m afraid that things will get worse before they improve. This view is encapsulated by the German proverb “better the end of horror than a horror without end”.
I am sticking with gold, and have been for a decade now ... and I am very happy in Oz!!!
Thats an impressive result. A lot to like about the report and the performance, especially in these highlly unusual times. A few things disturbing.
Under cost of sales ...
"5% decrease in total mine production costs from US$174 million to US$164 million, due to stable open pit mining costs, a 13% decrease in underground mining costs, a 13% decrease in processing costs offset by a 25% increase in finance and administration costs due to higher salaries and wages as a result of extended rosters and a 70% increase in refinery and transport costs due to different routes flown all related to COVID-19 as well as a 21% increase in gold ounces sold;"
They appear to be on the game ... v difficult to manage a mining operation efficiently and effectively in these times.
Looking at the growth engine of the company, EXPLORATION is another story
us$15.8m spent, 30% on brownfields and 70% on greenfield
30% in Egypt, 70% in West Africa.
No useful or insightful infromation produced which is enormously disappointing, and of concern. Given the amount of money they have shipped into West Africa, it would be great to tell the investors what the strategy is, and what the action plans are. Even what the resuts over the last 3 months were?
I personally would be spending 70% on brownfields in Egypt, and 30% on greenfields. Especially if you have not got a strategy for how to progress the greenfields.
We have seen mention of 2d seismic surveying, which is not cheap, and no results tabled?
There are opportunities within Egypt for exploration acreage, and not mentioned.
I would advise the board very strongly to get the growth story right in the next 3 months AND COMMUNICATE CLEARLY TO SHAREHOLDERS.