Katherine Roe, CEO at Wentworth Resources talks through the Ruvuma gas development in Tanzania. Watch the full video here.
Mr Powell told a European Central Bank conference in Portugal on Wednesday that while financial markets had understood the Fed’s determination to quash inflation, he was “racing against the clock” to keep business and household expectations from becoming unmoored.
“The clock is kind of running LOW on how long will you remain in a low-inflation regime,” he said.
But he vowed to nip the potential disanchoring of inflation expectations in the bud, saying “we will prevent that from happening”. The Fed would restore price stability even at the risk of raising interest rates TOO HIGH, he said.
“Is there a risk we would go too far? Certainly, there is a risk. But I wouldn’t agree that it’s the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make, let’s put it that way, would be to fail to restore price stability,” he said.
WELL HE HAS MADE SO MANY MISTAKES NOW A FEW MORE WON'T MATTER. OVER SHOOT HERE, NO SHOOT WHEN YOU NEED ONE THERE, AND SO ON.
There is a tendency for Mining Companies to be marked on resources, AISC, margins, perf against budget etc. by the borkers, ,and hence this is what they talk about.
They mumble something about organic growth, which they must regard as "mushroom organic"..keep it in the dark (from investors), feed it this and that etc....
I would prefer and get a lot more comfort about the "organic growth path" becoming much more transparent to investors, and so we know what is going on, what is getting prioritised, what is being achieved (etc)
Given where we are in the global central bank rate hiking cycle, the team believes a global recession still won't hit until the first half of calendar 2023. With this as a base case, the team says now is the time to start considering a defensive portfolio.
Here are the fast stats for sectors that work best in an "early contraction" phase (i.e. the one we are about to enter if they are right):
Staples and utilities outperformed 13 of 15 times;
Health and Telecom outperformed 12 of 15 times;
Gold outperformed in 5 of 8 cases and has the second-highest average return.
At the other extreme:
Industrials have never outperformed;
Diversified financials and basic materials outperformed in just 2 of 15 cases.
US real estate tends to underperform (rising rates are generally not great for REITs)
Everyone comfortable for the ride?
A little light reading for you Mr T. The US stands for one thing. The USA, there is no other way. Whether its the legal side, the financial cartels, the corporate cartels..... or just how sanctions work...Oliver North?
“They are making laws, what we say as extraterritorial, that means they can touch every company and every employee in the world as long as they are a small link to the U.S. market.”
The American Trap,” is a work by Frédéric Pierucci, a former executive of French energy and transport giant Alstom who spent two years in a U.S. prison for his role in a bribery scandal.Pierucci’s book opens with his arrest upon his arrival in New York in April 2013 on accusations of financial crimes by the Justice Department under the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The French executive eventually pleaded guilty to his role in a worldwide bribery scandal, and his company agreed to pay $772 million in fines....“cautionary tale for globe-trotting executives at multinational companies increasingly facing the threat of litigation when they are allegedly on the wrong side of U.S. law.”
Since publishing in China on May 1, the Chinese-language version of the book has topped the “new book” list on Dangdang, a popular Chinese e-commerce site,
Sanctions? when and if convenient. ...
and so on
The BOD of CEY should have "retired" Pardey a long time before the damage was done. Be very interesting to review how he was chosen int he first place ... key position criteria, skills experience needed etc,
NOMINATION COMMITTEE MANDATE
The committee is responsible for reviewing the Board’s succession plans and helps to fill vacancies among the senior management team by looking at the necessary and desirable competencies, skills, knowledge and experience of Directors. It helps the Board by making recommendations on the appointments of committees and as to the structure, size and composition of the Board and its committees. It makes recommendations to the Board for the appointment and re-election of Directors and considers the requirements for Board diversity (including gender and ethnic diversity).
Jim Rutherford (Chair)
Dr Sally Eyre
An econmist, lawyer and a Geo...
Surely you did not expect anything different Mr Bond. There has been excellent form shown over the last few decades.
The pound has never regained its glory since about 1967, and so on, but so it seems, this is life, and we move onwards...
I once took on the absurd task of trying to calculate the intrinsic value of a country (and its currency), in somewhat manner similar to that used to Value a multinational corporation. Having done a country or two, then I looked at what the exchange value should be between the countries calculated, and I got some absurd answers, which looked nothing like the exchange rates of the time. I was puzzled and chastized?
I was and am a scientist and engineer, and of course I would pursue such an absurd methodology with that sort of bakground?. So I looked at the other techniques of calculating exchange rates, and again got some wild numbers.
Then it was told to me that I should sober up and realise that the exchange rates are calculated by the market, which is a self organising intelligence network, of sorts, which runs under rules of sorts. The behaviour of this marvellous self organising network, was influenced by several variables, such as comparative interest rates, relative and absolute debt levels, and a throng of others factors.
I got excited as I knew a thing or 2 about self organising networks, and so off I went on another tangent. Some background sketch at https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/ann-self-organizing-neural-network-sonn/
Well, it worked and I made money, and lived happily ever after [LOL]
The gold market is such a contrive, as otherwise it would lead to a lighthouse effect on the disappearing purchasing power of the currencies.
I am turning and tuning the networks up again, in this tumultuous time, as there are a lot fo variables setting up myriads of eddy currents such that trends are difficult for a person to identify and predict.
Please Mr T
Henry Ford will become restless in his grave? Or ... J P Morgan
"Wall Street" was on trial. Sundry "reputation" ~witesses have made a feeble showitig. 'The hunters of the mysterious "money trust" were elated. Their brilliant counsel, who could say with -Aeneas that had once been part ... and so on
" Money is gold, nothing esle"
Good ol Swiss, where there is a buck to be made, you can rely on them...
Reputational damge , Ha! “As a monetary policy tool, the yield target contributed to insuring against extreme downside risk by (EXTREMELY) lowering funding costs FOR AN EXTREMELY LONG TERM, and reinforcing the other key elements of the package of policy measures,” the Reserve Bank’s review said.
“In its application, however, and with the benefit of hindsight, the yield target could have been ended earlier.” WITH THE BENEFIT OF THOUGHT THEY WOULD HAVE NOT DONE WHAT THEY DID! Benefit of hindsight, baloney. A complete disconnect with how market and the world works!
The Reserve Bank of Australia concedes that the disorderly end of its yield curve control policy in November last year triggered market volatility and dislocation and inflicted “reputational damage on to the bank”. Reputaional damage well deserved.
The Fed was/is no better, Team Transitory thinks that not only inflation is transitory. They think the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are transitory, too, and so are the poutcomes from these events transitory?? . But the striking thing about all three is precisely that they just keep going, in defiance of Americans’/Feds attention deficit disorder.
Has China’s COVID-zero policy miraculously prevailed over the omicron variants of the virus? Only in Beijing’s propaganda. In both the capital and Shanghai, they are back to mass testing and restrictions.
Is an end to the war in Ukraine imminent? Only in the imaginings of those who have insisted all along that Ukraine would win it. On the bloody battlefields of the Donbas, Russia is gaining ground in a brutal war of attrition.
The Fed has exhibited and continues to, exhibits no ability to learn from past disasters. And yet they contonue on...same old, same old.... trying to impose their view of reality on the financial markets of the world, which do not behave like their text books or models,
Can't we do better than this?
The terms on the permits on offer are the very onerous terms of yesteryear, with a few other complications. Would not be rushing in. Great for the illegal miners though. I wonder how many of these are from China or the middle east or from "political pennies" Its totally unacceptable what the artisinals and "small scale miners" are doing in Egypt. They must have some suporters up high to get away with this. Have a look in Google Earth
Europe’s options for filling its natural-gas stores to avoid a winter energy crisis are narrowing as flows from Russia decrease and U.S. shipments are poised to stall, sending gas prices higher.
Russia’s Gazprom PJSC said Wednesday that flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany would fall further, a day after it cut exports on the route by 40%. The state-owned energy giant said it had turned off another turbine engine at the Portovaya compressor station, which pumps gas through the subsea pipeline, due to maintenance delays.
Further concerning gas traders already on edge due to the war in Ukraine, Gazprom cut the volume of gas sent to Italy by 15% compared with Tuesday. Italian gas and oil company Eni E -4.44% SpA, the country’s biggest importer of Russian gas, said Gazprom gave no explanation for the cut. Well they might look at the steaming 10 year bond spread rate. On Wednesday the ECB held an emergency meeting to address the problem of Italy, and to a lesser extent Greece. The ECB wants to damp down the rising heat in Italian bonds, where the 10-year yield rose to 2.48 percentage points above Germany’s before falling after the ECB action. Hard to believe there is anything like productive output in Europe totally, and of course we have al heard the stories aboutt he effiicencies in Greece and Italy
Gazprom didn’t respond to a request for comment. AND WHY WOULD THEY BOTHER, THEY HAVE SPOKEN A FEW TIMES NOW VEYR CLEARLY IN THE MARKET.
Having just spent few days in Brussels, where the ridiculous layers of bureacracy are astonishing, and it follows the cost of making decision is painfully slow and ridiculously high cost?!!! It is a wonder to me that anything gets done in Europe at all, except for talks, reports, conferences and meetings.
Going to be a chilly winter, and perhaps that will bring them to their senses.
worth a read if you would like to get some more insights into gold
Thats an interesting presentation 3Bear.
The word CONSISTENT APPEARS REPEATEDLY, which is great to hear. Pardedy would battle with understanding this concept.
Some of the underground grades are spectacular, and dependingon how thiey mine this, could be worth a lot more than the SPOT price, as it would be marketed as speciment gold soce, GOLD OF THE PHAROHS!? You can get us$25k/ozs for the right specimen and right narrative. https://www.irocks.com/minerals/specimen/50026 26 composite samples at ave ~500 gpt Au [16 ozs per ton!] and max sample an astonishing 7,000 gpt Au [225 ounces of Au!] which could be worth us$5m ? My imagination is running away with me!
DOROPO is looking solid with a 13 year mine life, at LOM AISC us$900, and a nice payback. Intrigued at some of the flat dips and the form of the deposits, and I would not at all be surprised for the project to grow beyong its 5.4m ozs total resource base.
Lets hope they add 3 m ozs reserves, get to 500k ounces per year in 2024 and 10 year underground mine life.
There is quite a song and dance ABOUT DIVIDEND PAYMENTS, so be surprsied is this is not a continued feature.
Goldman Sachs have target on gold price of US$2,100-2,300/oz over next 3-6 months. This is down from the previous target range of US$2,300-2,500/oz for the same period. I REMAIN INTROGUED AS TO WHY NONE OF THESE LEARNED INSTIUTIONS IGNORE THE LACK OF SUPPLY SIDE FROM LACK OF EXPLORATION SUCCESS, AND IT IS GETTING WORSE EVERY DECADE ! THIS LACK OF SUPPLY FROM DISOCEVRY WILL IMPACT THE MARKET, AS IT AFFECTS THE SUPPLY/DEMAND SIDE. ITS THE REASON LARGE COMPANIES WHO CANNTO REPLACE THEIR RESERVES, YEAR AFTER YEAR, SUDDENLY DECIDE TO GO AND DO SOME M AND A...AND REPLACE THEIR RESERVES. AND THIS WILL HIT THE MARKETS OF THE FUTURE. ANYHOW CONTINUE
Gold has been hit by a large “wealth shock” on the back of a weaker yuan following the economic impact of the lockdowns in China, the world’s largest consumer, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which revised its price targets. Still, the worst may be over, it added.
The ongoing food and energy crisis and rising US rates have also seen other emerging market currencies under pressure, analysts including Mikhail Sprogis said in a June 14 note. This negative wealth effect for bullion has been further compounded by liquidation of short-term-oriented futures and exchange-traded fund positions, which are sensitive to trends in the dollar, they said.
Bullion has dropped more than 6% this quarter on rising bets that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in its monetary policy tightening path. Goldman economists expect two 75 basis-point hikes over the summer, which could sap US growth (not if you believe the Fed ?!) , add to fears of recession risks and boost gold investment demand.
“The wealth shock appears to have peaked, and we expect a rebound in emerging market gold demand in the second half of the year,” the analysts said. “In the absence of a large liquidity shock, we view current gold price weakness as a good entry point.”
The bank kept its upside outlook for the gold price but delayed the path by revising its three- and six-month targets to $2,100 and $2,300, from $2,300 and $2,500, respectively. The 12-month target of $2,500 was unchanged. Spot bullion was at $1,813 on Wednesday.
Russian domestic gold production will stay inside the country as it faces a surplus of dollars and its central bank aims to prevent excessive appreciation of the currency.
Given limited options for investment in foreign assets, the purchase of domestic gold output seems like one of the easiest ways to prevent excessive ruble strength.
Global central bank demand is still on track to meet bank’s forecast for 750 tons in 2022. Whay are they soaking up the barbarous relict of the past again, which pays no interest?
Oh well, good luck to us all
Just so you dont think you are alone ...
And while inflation is going up, Flatt says that’s a positive for Brookfield, which he says owns a portfolio mainly made up of real assets – or, as he calls it, stuff.
“If you think of our business in general, we own real, backbone things. Toll roads, pipelines, office buildings, retail centres, renewable energy plants, transmission lines.
“The simplest way to think about it, there’s a positive impact to them to the cash flow margin with inflation.”
Flatt explains it this way. Think of a poles and wire business in the energy sector, which Brookfield buys, safe in the knowledge the revenues it will receive are linked to inflation.
Because Brookfield spends a lot of money upfront, its ongoing costs are lower. So, as inflation rises, it gets 100 per cent of the benefit on the revenue side, but the inflation hit on the cost side has been minimised by Brookfield’s big upfront spend. The result is better margins.
Not only that, but where Brookfield might have expected the poles and wire business to grow revenue at 2 per cent, it is now compounding at a higher rate thanks to inflation.
“That’s the simple concept across our $US700 billion worth of stuff,” he says. “Everything’s not perfect, but 80 per cent of it is probably positively impacted in some way by positive inflation.”
Another reason Flatt is relaxed about the economic downturn he predicts is that it should make it easier for Brookfield to act as a classic contrarian investor and buy assets at more attractive prices.
“The last two-and-a-half years were tough. We bought things, but there was lots of money around with lots of sponsors and everyone could borrow money. Therefore, there was no way to differentiate yourself.
Bruce Flatt says the coming recession should be seen as part of a bigger business cycle.
Brookfield CEO says recession coming, but rates still low
“Today, that’s different. Credit is harder to come by. Banks are only lending to some people. Capital markets are differentiating between good sponsors and ones that aren’t good sponsors or aren’t seasoned sponsors. So, this now is the time which favours us. We will find better deals now.”
Indeed, Flatt believes Brookfield’s position heading into a difficult environment will be helped by what he sees as a contrarian approach during the boom.
“When everyone else wanted to put their money into growth businesses at 200 times revenue, we were buying insurance assets at book value, or less than book.” ME TOO
RELAXED AND COMFORTABLE. PLUS A LIKE AN EXPOSURE TO GOLD, AND MINERS ...
Gold and gold stocks came under pressure during May. Gold ended the month with a US$59.58 (3.1%) decline to US$1,837.35/oz. The dollar was the main headwind, rising sharply to reach 20-year highs on 12 May. Gold stocks came under additional pressure from heavy selling across broader stock markets.
Markets and the economy are beginning to show signs of an imminent recession. The US Federal Reserve will eventually have to choose between lower inflation and higher growth. It can’t have both, and it might get neither if stagflation sets in.
Gold has fallen below its bull market trend-line that has been in place for three years. We will be watching to see if gold either gets back on trend, establishes a new trend or begins trending sideways in a broad US$400 band. Regardless of the trend gold takes from here, we expect it to test the top of the range again over the coming year, driven by inflation, geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, other risk-driven events or if the Fed changes course.
Not a new comment, but a new impetus, and if CEY has any sense they shoud consider their options in this space.
The gold mining industry will need more mergers and partnerships to dig up harder-to-access (deeper, more difficult jurisdictions) deposits in an environmentally friendly way, according to the head of the world’s biggest producer.
“We are seeing fewer and fewer large-scale and transformative gold discoveries,” Newmont Corp. Chief Executive Officer Tom Palmer told an industry conference in Toronto on Tuesday. “Instead, we are seeing lower grades and more-difficult-to-reach ounces.” THE IMPORTANT INFERENCE ABOUT LOWER GRADE, IS THAT THE NEWMONTS WILL NEED LARGER OREBODIES TO CONTAIN THE SAME OUNCES. LARGER OREBODIES MEANS LARGER AND MORE COMPLEX GEO-METALLURGY, WHICH IS AN AREA OF GREAT NEGLECT BY THE MINING FRATERNITY, AND WHERE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAIL.
To tap those ounces while assuring the industry addresses “critical sustainability issues” will require access to capital and agility, Palmer said at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada gathering.
“There are only a few gold mining companies who have the capacity to deliver on all of these elements: size, scale, mine life and access to capital — clearly making the case for further partnerships and consolidation within the gold mining industry,” he said.
Those who don’t understand such fundamentals “are doomed to be left behind,” Palmer said. “While gold will always exist, not all of us will without collaboration and consolidation.”
AMEN, AND SO ENDS THE READING FOR TODAY.
the gold gnome