Member Info for goldgnome

ITS A ALL IN ... FREE FOR ALL ... A new measure would allow banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. to hold less capital relative to their assets (bben there before?), and may cut such requirements for big-bank subsidiaries by as much as $219 billion — incentivizing them to plow more financing into areas like Treasuries and other government-backed assets and anything else they feel like lOL

Critics of the new rule argue it will make the financial system more fragile (hard to imagine) and give big banks an even greater competitive advantage (recall TOO BIG TO FAIL SAGA'S).

“This type of upside-down policymaking surely will result in even more concentration and fragility within the banking system and less focus on Main Street borrowers,” Phillip Basil, director of economic growth and financial stability at the nonprofit Better Markets, said in a statement when the relaxed rule was finalized.

The new eSLR rule, which will take effect in early 2026, isn’t the only change afoot. The Fed has shown other US regulators the outlines of a revised plan that would dramatically relax a different Biden-era bank capital proposal, Bloomberg reported in October. And in early December, US agencies moved to ease Obama-era rules that banks said crimped their ability to lend to riskier companies (MORE RISK IS JUST WHAT WE NEED, THAT WILL PERFECTLY COMPLIMENT THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHICH SIDE OF THE BED DONALD WILL GET OUT IN THE MORNING LOL)

Four of the biggest US banks almost doubled their stock buybacks in the first full quarter following the Fed’s annual stress test, which the lenders all passed in June. They bought back $21 billion of stock during the period, a $10 billion jump from a year earlier, and stock dividends they paid out climbed by about 10%.

Home Loans

Among the most hotly debated proposals of Trump’s second administration are its potential plans to release Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bedrock of the US mortgage market, from government control. OF COURSE, ITS SO OBVIOUS, THE BENEFITS GO TO WHO?

The deck chairs are being re-organised...

good luck

$4437.37

In the political economy of the 21st century, gold is again becoming strategic. As Western sanctions have frozen foreign reserves and weaponized the dollar system, countries like China and Russia have turned to gold as a geopolitical buffer. It is the only asset that lies outside the control of any government or central bank network. The People’s Bank of China, for instance, has been steadily increasing its holdings, now surpassing 2,300 metric tons. The Reserve Bank of India, too, has expanded its reserves to nearly 800 metric tons. Gold has returned to the stage not as a standard of value, but as a sovereign shield in an era of contested multipolarity.

Philosophically, gold raises deeper questions about what we mean by “value.” Economists have long argued over whether value arises from labor, utility, or perception. Gold, while limited in utility, is labor-intensive to extract and immense in perceived worth. Its appeal endures precisely because it reconciles material and metaphysical needs—the tangible assurance of scarcity with the intangible comfort of faith. John Maynard Keynes derided it as a “barbarous relic,” yet even he could not erase its psychological hold. Humanity craves symbols of stability, and gold, impervious to decay, offers that illusion of eternity.

https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/golds-lasting-luster

Now the political class has shown its true colors? that they are hell bent on destroying the value of currency, or they have no idea what they are doiing (Or both LOL), gold looks an excellent bet !!!

the gnome

The latest on Silver ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H3Zr9O6nzg&t=38s

Well its all done by AI... !!!

LOL, it used to be only politicians could stand up and tell a house full of lies.  Now AI can do it so much better, and do it 24/7

Brave new world, .... perhaps we can save ourselves the continual embarrassment of having to listen to Pollies lies, and in fact do away with Pollies all together. After all very clearly there is limited intelligence ... so artificial intelligence has got to be better than negligible intelligence (NI) ...LOL

Enjoy Xmas ... and please send a better cricket team to the southern penal colony

Company (Ticker) Industry 12-Month Forward P/E Multiple

NVIDIA (NVDA) AI Hardware/Semiconductors ~30x - 40x

Microsoft (MSFT) Hyperscaler/Software ~29x - 32x

Alphabet (GOOG) Hyperscaler/Software/Search ~23x - 29x

Amazon (AMZN) Hyperscaler/Cloud Services ~35x

Vertiv (VRT) Data Center Infrastructure ~36x

Lam Research (LRCX) Semiconductor Manufacturing ~35x

Micron Technology (MU) Semiconductor/Memory ~13x - 15x

C3.ai (AI) AI Software Negative P/E (currently unprofitable)

Key Observations

High Valuations: Many leading AI companies trade at significant premiums compared to the broader market, reflecting high growth expectations. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector generally trades around a P/E of 40x, which is considered expensive relative to historical averages.

and os on and so forth

so much BS in these valuations

the gnome

Took the words right out of my mouth and the money out of my wallet.

Happy to be investing

the gnome

Many people think of gold as an inflation hedge. However its biggest gains came when price pressures were waning. While inflation was rising from mid-2020 through mid-2022, gold was largely flat. Instead gold prices are a lot more sensitive to central bank purchases. The latest monthly report from the World Gold Council shows large gross and net central bank purchases in the first 10 months of each of the last four years.

That shift began in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. A flood of foreign companies left Russia and their assets were put up for sale. Many Russian assets were frozen, including those owned by its central bank. Clearly, Russia had every interest in building gold reserves as an alternative to the dollar, but so did BRICS countries — Brazil, India, China and South Africa — allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin to varying degrees.

Now that President Donald Trump has cut US funding for Ukraine and is hinting at pulling back security support, some European countries are also feeling vulnerable. Those near the front lines with Russia like Poland, are buying gold. Even the European Central Bank, not a big buyer itself, is doing its best to prevent constituent central banks like Italy from effectively selling gold.

Under-owned asset

Economist and macro strategist David Rosenberg is heavily overweight gold in his model investment portfolio. For him gold is all about central bank purchases. While he’s been tactically reducing his allocation to the precious metal recently, he’s still bullish.

I asked Rosenberg what’s behind central bank buying. He said they’ve recognized gold is an under-owned asset. It was in the last few months of 1999 when the current long secular bull market began. That was also the nadir of gold reserve ownership. Central banks had about 10% of reserves in gold by his reckoning, compared with 35% historically and 25% today.

World Gold Council figures show central banks from countries as diverse as Poland, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Turkey, China and others were buying in excess of one ton of gold in October alone.

For Rosenberg, this has created a massive supply-demand imbalance. He reckons supply grows 1% a year with demand growing at 2 1/2%.

Despite recent records in gold-backed ETF holdings and an uptick in buying by households in places like Thailand, only 1% of aggregate global investment portfolios is in bullion, by his estimates. In the early 1980s that number was close to 25%.

Thats enough, you got the picture

goodnight

Good grief, The Nurses were wrong, and you are alive!

Its very easy to be a cynic , critic and lunatic ... You may know I am the Presdient of such learned societies

But tis the season for gold, in my humble opinion, despite efforts of the Chairmans, the CEO's and NEDs and not to mention the CFO, the COO, CTO CNNO's and so on

These are strange times, if not extraordinary. But there is certainly massive loss of trust in the political elites (wasteleand), and Donald T stands out of course and leads the way, but there is great competition. And when you lose trust in these you lose trust in the things they offer or issue ... the fiats. You then turn to the things that seem to last forever, have great stability on a 5 year movning average and so on.

I will believe in Toys-R-Us....I will invest in Mutual Funds ... and so on

I know what I am doing, have a great time if not laugh at the plight of those who know not what they are dong let alone who are doing it to them

On the Centamin/Anglo exposure I have sat and just quietly accumulated tot he degree my portfolio balance is now shockingly askew.

Enjoy

best of luck to us all

the Gnome

JPMorgan expects gold to hit $US5000 per ounce by the end of next year, with its mining analyst, Milan Tomic, writing to clients: “The consensus view on long gold is the highest it has ever been and the breadth of market participants in precious metals has been unparalleled, with hedge funds and central banks the most active groups.

“We remain positive on the gold outlook, underpinned by persistent fiscal deficits, geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand,” Tomic said.

I hope your treatment is not driven by some nurse? Joking of course, but good to have you back.

I have built up some substantial stock holdings in quality gold stocks (miners and explorers) a lot fo which is in the public domain, and it is amazing how many phone calls I get about large volume off market purchases from well meaning funds of various flavours, LOL. Never experienced this level of interest in my life to be "short" (or long). Regardless of market shenanikans (these people have quite a bit to do with such behaviours), and with a seriously unbalanced portfolio now (I can hear Warren Buffet muttering in the background) I am an accumulator, not seller.

Its going to be long slog to build any trust in fiats, and daily we get revelations from the entitled group (politicians in Australia, and not a scientist or engineer in sight) that fail the "Pub Test"

"From flying her husband to three consecutive AFL grand finals, to tacking a friend’s birthday onto a work trip and taking her family along to the Thredbo ski fields – all at public expense – the minister for communications and sport’s use of taxpayer-funded travel shows how loosely the “pub test” is being interpreted"

and perhaps the US Voters might wise up

"Trump plans to issue an executive order banning America’s 50 states from regulating AI. There should be one national rule and nothing more, he says. Since there is no prospect of serious federal regulations, AI companies will continue to have carte blanche.

The AI gold rush has sustained US growth, almost half of which this year has come from powering the LLMs."

Almost a laugh a minute as the favoured view fertively re-arange various deck chairs on the Titanic, as the iceberg (s) surely loom up

the Gnome

The financial will look fairly good is my tip ... much better than most of the AI Companies LOL

.... and then there is Zimbabwe, which should be the "golden nation" of Africa. An utterly brainless attempt now in front of the "government/BOYS CLUB" is to increase goldmining royalties to 10%, and in so doing they win the gold medal for stupidity....and I suspect is a tad self serving. By hiking the royalty rate they will diminish legitimate gold investment and mining .... meaning there will be more opportunity for rent seeking from the illegitimate sector which pays no royalty to the nation but 10 % to the BOYS CLUB, oh dear, .... boys find it hard to learn, especially when they can buy another Rolls Royce and park it in their garage in Switzerland LOL

Loathing filled with mirth

the gold gnome

Sorry about that, but the LSE puts some restrictions which make it hard to get soprted in the time frame. Stupid childish stuff as usual.

Worth looking at the illegal flows

Volume of Illegal Gold Sold to the Middle East (Including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc.) in 2025

Estimating the volume of "illegal" (illicit, smuggled, or undeclared) gold entering the Middle East is challenging due to its clandestine nature—much goes unreported, disguised via mislabeling, hand-carried luggage, or routed through intermediaries like Uganda or Rwanda. Data primarily comes from UN Comtrade discrepancies (comparing African exports vs. Middle East imports), NGO reports (e.g., SwissAid, The Sentry), and investigations by Reuters and others. The UAE (Dubai in particular) dominates as the regional hub, accounting for 80-90% of inflows, where gold is refined and re-exported (often to Switzerland or India). Other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar play smaller roles, mainly as secondary markets or refineries, with limited specific illicit estimates.

As of December 2025, no comprehensive 2025 full-year data exists yet (estimates are projections based on H1 trends and 2024 figures), but the trade remains robust amid high gold prices (~$4,200+/oz). Global illicit gold is ~20-25% of total production (~4,500-5,000 tonnes/year), with Africa (top producer) contributing 30-40% of that (~400-500 tonnes illicit annually). Nearly all African-sourced illicit gold funnels to the Middle East first, worth $25-40 billion/year.

Key Estimates for the Region

Total to Middle East (Primarily UAE): ~400-450 tonnes/year (2022-2024 baseline; 2025 projected similar or +10-15% due to price surge and conflict in Sudan/DRC). Value: $30-40 billion (at 2025 prices).

UAE share: 405 tonnes (2022, SwissAid), rising to 748 tonnes total imports from Africa in 2024 (18% YoY growth), of which 50-70% illicit (~375-520 tonnes).

10-year total (2012-2022): 2,569 tonnes to UAE alone, worth $115 billion.

Saudi Arabia & Qatar: Minimal direct illicit inflows; no granular 2025 estimates. Saudi's formal gold market is ~$4.5-8 billion (jewelry/coins), but smuggling risks rise with new refineries. Qatar's market is smaller (~$1-2 billion), focused on luxury; both see indirect flows via UAE (e.g., re-exports). Illicit share: Likely

Russia's De-Dollarization Efforts: From Sanctions to Multipolar Resilience (as of December 2025)

Russia's push to de-dollarize has evolved from a defensive response to Western sanctions into a proactive strategy for economic sovereignty, accelerating since the 2022 Ukraine invasion froze ~$300 billion in assets and barred Moscow from SWIFT. By late 2025, these efforts have reshaped Russia's trade landscape—99% of Russia-China bilateral trade now settles in rubles and yuan, up from near-zero pre-sanctions, while 90%+ of trade with India uses national currencies (rupees/rubles). This isn't just rhetoric: Bilateral trade volumes hit records ($245B with China, $65B with India in 2024-25), with goals of $100B+ by 2030, bypassing dollar intermediaries. Driven by BRICS/SCO alliances, Russia's strategy hedges against U.S. "weaponization" of the dollar but faces hurdles like yuan liquidity constraints and geopolitical friction. Below, the key pillars, progress, and outlook.

Core Drivers

Sanctions exposed Russia's dollar vulnerability (pre-2022: 40%+ of reserves in USD/EUR), prompting a "monetary mutiny." Putin has labeled the dollar "toxic," slashing its role in transactions by half since 2022.

Motivations include:

Sanction Evasion: Freezing assets and SWIFT exclusion forced alternatives; parallel import networks (tech/goods via Turkey/China) now evade 80% of export controls.

Geopolitical Independence: Align with BRICS (now 10 members post-2024 expansions) to counter U.S. tariffs (Trump's 2025 threats of 100% on BRICS exports).

Economic Stability: Inflation at 6.5-7% in 2025 (down from 9.6% peak) despite 7.1% GDP military spend; de-dollarization buffers ruble volatility.

China's Gold Buying Strategy: A Blueprint for De-Dollarization (as of December 2025)

China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has executed one of the most disciplined gold accumulation programs in modern history, transforming gold from a cultural staple into a cornerstone of national economic sovereignty. [Recall how China has transformed its economy over the last 25 years] This isn't impulsive buying—it's a calculated, multi-year strategy to hedge against U.S. dollar dominance, geopolitical risks, and inflation, all while supporting the yuan's global ambitions. Since resuming purchases in November 2024 after a six-month pause, the PBOC has added gold for 12 consecutive months through November 2025, with ~30+ tonnes acquired in 2025 alone (on top of 44 tonnes in 2024). Official reserves now stand at ~2,300 tonnes (74.5 million troy ounces), valued at ~$260 billion, but analysts estimate actual holdings could be 20-50% higher due to underreporting for strategic opacity. My safe bet would be AT LEAST 50%

This approach aligns with broader BRICS efforts (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) to erode dollar hegemony—China's gold now represents ~6% of its $3.3 trillion foreign reserves, up from 3.4% in 2023, with room to reach 10-15% (adding another 1,000-2,000 tonnes) without market disruption. Gold prices, hitting $4,200+/oz in late 2025, reflect this demand floor, with central banks (led by China) accounting for 30-35% of global mine output.

Russia's De-Dollarization Efforts: From Sanctions to Multipolar Resilience (as of December 2025)

Russia's push to de-dollarize has evolved from a defensive response to Western sanctions into a proactive strategy for economic sovereignty, accelerating since the 2022 Ukraine invasion froze ~$300 billion in assets and barred Moscow from SWIFT. By late 2025, these efforts have reshaped Russia's trade landscape—99% of Russia-China bilateral trade now settles in rubles and yuan, up from near-zero pre-sanctions, while 90%+ of trade with India uses national currencies (rupees/rubles). This isn't just rhetoric: Bilateral trade volumes hit records ($245B with China, $65B with India in 2024-25), with goals of $100B+ by 2030, bypassing dollar intermediaries. Driven by BRICS/SCO alliances, Russia's strategy hedges against U.S. "weaponization" of the dollar but faces hurdles like yuan liquidity constraints and geopolitical friction.

Core Objectives of the Strategy?

The PBOC's playbook emphasizes steady, non-disruptive accumulation over flashy moves, blending defensive hedging with offensive positioning in a multipolar world.

Outlook for 2026

Expect continuation: WGC forecasts 600-700t global central bank buys (China ~20%), with PBOC targeting 3,000t+ (10% reserves) by 2030 for "economic sovereignty." As Wang Qing of Golden Credit notes, it's a "strategic direction" amid volatility—gold as the "ultimate currency" in a tariff-torn world. For investors, this validates gold's role (Dal

Central banks have been on a historic gold-buying spree since 2022, marking a structural shift in global reserve management. In 2024, they purchased a record 1,045 tonnes—the third straight year above 1,000 tonnes, more than double the 2010–2021 average of 473 tonnes annually. This trend accelerated into 2025, with ~500 tonnes bought year-to-date through Q3 (on pace for another 1,000+ tonne year), driven by emerging markets like China, India, Turkey, Poland, and Russia. Globally, official gold reserves now total ~36,359 tonnes (valued at $4.2–$4.5 trillion), surpassing foreign-held U.S. Treasuries (~$3.1–$3.5 trillion) for the first time since 1996—gold's share of reserves hit 23% vs. Treasuries' 22%. This "monetary mutiny" has fueled gold's rally to $4,000+/oz, up 50% YTD. Below, the key drivers, backed by data and expert insights.

Key Reasons for the Surge

Central banks cite a mix of defensive and strategic motives in surveys (e.g., World Gold Council's 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, where 29% planned increases—the highest since 2018). By 2025, 95% expect reserves to keep rising, with 81% from emerging markets hedging dollar risks.

Montage Gold Corp just paid a 55% premium for African Gold (A1G on ASX), its up 280% in last 12 months...

Perseus Gold just trumped (sorry about choice of words) Robex for Predictive Discovery, in $2.1 b offer

Lot will be going on in the gold mining space in the next 12 months in MandA .. wont be surprised if Anglogold is not made an offer or 2

chins up

Fairly odd that a price of $130 and the share goes south. Must be a great buying opportunity...for the smart money and the hot winds

Considerable solidity in the debasement trade

“Inflation is substantially above target and substantially above target in all forecasts for next year. And it’s part of the reason the dollar’s depreciated by about 10% in the first half of this year. It’s the single biggest decline in the US dollar in six months, in 50 years,” Griffin told the Citadel Securities future of global markets conference."

The modern debasement trade began in the first half of the 20th century when governments began to gradually decouple their commercial banks from gold via an increasing layer of central bank abstraction and reduced currency-gold price pegs.

But it really kicked into high-gear in the second half of the 20th century when they decoupled from any sort of currency-gold price peg entirely.

Going forward, I expect money supply to generally resume growing at a faster year-over-year percentage rate than the interest rate on government securities, meaning this metric will be negative more often than not. However, it’s likely to spend a lot of time only moderately negative.

Thus, my base case is that we will find ourselves in a structural environment where debasement keeps occurring, but absolute hurdle rates and costs of capital are no longer declining (i.e. no more lower-lows in interest rates), and thus valuations for equities, houses, and other assets will have less of a structural tailwind behind them.

More from Lyn Alden at https://www.lynalden.com/december-2025-newsletter/

Well worth a read in my humble opinion

Dont let the hot winds of the market part you from your gold and golden mining stocks !!! Thats how the hot winds make money

regards

the gnome

Is it Happening All Over Again?

Lax risk management, an incurious Federal Reserve, credit rating agency shopping, greed and garden-variety stupidity. Welcome to what could be the next great financial crisis.

Eric Salzman

Nov 17

READ IN APP

Perhaps the quote that will define the next Great Financial Crisis will be this one from an executive at a former lender to the $10 billion fraud known as First Brands.

“You’re not paid to do due diligence in this market.”

There have been three high-profile Private Credit (PC) blowups in the past month. All were due to fraud, and all had telltale signs of problems ahead if anyone bothered to look under the hood. However, in the mad rush to get the deals done and put investor funds to work to earn those sweet management fees, as the First Brands lender said, “You’re not paid to do due diligence in this market.”

The same was true leading up to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. No one was looking under the hood of either the borrowers or the lenders. The game plan was to make your money, move on to the next deal, feign ignorance when it all blows up, get a bailout, and let others pay the price.

PC has made significant inroads into a sector of the economy known as “middle markets.” Middle market companies generally have annual revenues between $50 million and $1 billion. According to a recent report from Morgan Stanley:

The middle market represents a significant cross-section of the US economy, accounting for one-third of private sector GDP, $13 trillion in revenue and 50 million workers employed.4 Despite this, banks have largely withdrawn from the middle market as they have grown larger via consolidation and more constrained with their lending due to the flood of regulations post the Great Financial Crisis.

PC has filled that void left by commercial banks. In and of itself, investor funds using their capital to provide needed funds for this crucial sector was a good thing. However, it seems like we’ve crossed over to a point where middle market companies have become overleveraged, as the sector is, according to Asset Asset-Based Finance Journal,

… awash in private credit, fueling dealmaking at a breakneck pace as 2025 unfolds. With economic volatility—driven by persistent high interest rates, fiscal uncertainty, and a flood of complex financing—comes a pressing need to stress-test debt capacity … S&P Global Ratings reveals a stark reality: average leverage across its U.S. middle market credit estimate population hit 7x [debt to Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation Amortization] in 2024.

Generally a ratio of 3x is considered relatively safe.

What this means is this vital sector of American business faces enhanced risk of a downturn in the economy and or an increase in borrowing rates. The employment picture in the U.S. economy is already showing signs of softening. A contagion in the middle markets could spread rapidly, bringing unem