Member Info for goldgnome

Sorry, if you want to read the MIT report on AI, which to me is onto the "heart of the matter"

https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf

a good bet is the way the money momentum is moving...protect yourself from downside, or profit from downside in the tech/AI space

CONTINUING (DEEP SEEK)

A Reserve Asset for Central Banks: This is perhaps the strongest evidence that gold is needed. Central banks are not sentimental; they are strategic. They continuously buy and hold gold because:

It has no counterparty risk (it's not someone else's promise to pay).

It helps diversify their reserves away from the US dollar and other fiat currencies.

It instills confidence in their own country's financial stability.

A Critical Industrial Component: While a smaller portion of demand, gold is needed for its physical properties. It is an excellent conductor that doesn't corrode, making it essential for high-end electronics, medical devices (like stents), and aerospace technology. This creates a base level of physical, non-investment demand.

The Interplay: How "Want" and "Need" Drive Price

The price of gold is a constant tug-of-war between these two forces.

In Calm, Bullish Markets: The "want" factor can dominate. Speculators pile in, pushing the price higher based on momentum and optimism.

In Crisis or Uncertainty: The "need" factor takes over dramatically. The demand for gold as a safe-haven and hedge becomes urgent and inelastic. People and institutions must have it, regardless of the price, to protect their wealth. This is when prices can spike.

Conclusion

To say gold is only wanted is to ignore its critical, irreplaceable role as a hedge and a strategic reserve asset.

To say it is only needed is to ignore the powerful roles of speculation, fashion, and human emotion

Gold is both. Its "want" is fueled by its long history as a store of value, while its "need" is proven daily by its function as a fundamental anchor in a world of financial and political uncertainty. This dual nature is precisely what makes it such a unique and enduring feature of the global investment market.

I KNOW WHERE I SIT, GOLD IS ROCK STEADY AS A LARGE PART OF MY PORTFOLIO, AS ARE SOME GOLD MINING STOCKS ... AND DARE I ADMIT, SOME JUNIOR EXPLORATION COMPANIES (GULP)

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS, HANG IN INVESTORS

Speaking of AI I asked DEEP SEEK (Chinese domicilied AI), "in the investment market, is gold wanted or needed or both?"

The unedited answer

Excellent question. It gets to the heart of gold's unique role in the global financial system.

The short answer is: Both. Gold is simultaneously wanted for its historical and emotional appeal and needed for its fundamental, non-negotiable financial functions.

Let's break down the difference.

Gold is Wanted (The Emotional & Speculative Driver)

This is the "desire" side of the equation. It's driven by human psychology, tradition, and profit motive.

Perceived Value and Tradition: For thousands of years, gold has been a symbol of wealth, power, and beauty. This deep-seated cultural belief creates a persistent "want."

Jewelry and Ornamentation: A massive portion of gold demand comes from the jewelry industry, particularly in countries like India and China. This is a pure consumer "want," driven by fashion, status, and gift-giving culture.

Speculation: Many traders and investors buy gold because they believe its price will go up in the short to medium term. They want to profit from price movements. This demand can be volatile and is often driven by market sentiment.

Collectibility: Numismatic coins and rare gold items are wanted by collectors for their rarity and historical significance, far beyond their pure metal value.

In essence, if the price gets too high, the "want" for gold can diminish. People can delay buying jewelry, and speculators can sell.

Gold is Needed (The Fundamental & Strategic Driver)

This is the "necessity" side. It's where gold serves functions that are difficult or impossible for any other asset to replicate. This creates a baseline, non-discretionary demand.

A Primary Financial Hedge:

Against Inflation: When currencies lose purchasing power, gold historically retains its value. Investors need it to protect their wealth from being eroded by rising prices.

Against Geopolitical Risk: In times of war, political instability, or international sanctions, gold is a universally accepted asset that exists outside any single country's banking system. It's "political insurance."

Against Currency Devaluation: When governments print vast amounts of money (quantitative easing), investors need a asset that isn't a liability of any government. Gold is this asset.

A Portfolio Diversifier: Modern portfolio theory needs assets that are not correlated with stocks and bonds. Gold often moves independently or inversely to these traditional assets. When stocks crash, gold often holds or increases in value, reducing overall portfolio losses. This is not a "want"—it's a necessary risk-management strategy for large institutions, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds.

A Reserve Asset for Central Banks: This is perhaps the strongest evidence that gold is needed. Central banks are not sentimental; they are strategic. They continuously buy and hold gold because:

The financial world has cosniderable exposure to things vagueley defined poorly regulated and very hot.

AI is one of them , and ... An MIT initiative this year released a report indicating that 95% of organizations are getting zero return from generative AI projects (gulp, say again?). we recall ... Firms that were once big players, such as Digital Equipment Corp., can fade into obsolescence. Bonds that seem safe now may prove to be considerably riskier over time or even default, if profits from data centers fall short of companies’ current expectations, for example.

some key takeaways from a recent article in US

Lenders and investors are looking to protect themselves against potential defaults by tech companies, known as hyperscalers, as they borrow hundreds of billions of dollars to invest in artificial intelligence ?!!!).

Demand for credit protection has increased, with the cost of credit derivatives on Oracle Corp.'s bonds more than doubling since September, and trading volume for credit default swaps tied to the company jumping to about $4.2 billion.

Banks and money managers are trading more derivatives that offer payouts if individual tech companies default on their debt, with some of the biggest buyers of single-name credit default swaps being banks that have seen their exposure to tech companies surge in recent months.

You throw in the poorly regulated private credit ventures, which makes the wild west a well structured venture, where you have the darling young things throwing other peoples money (Yours), at things they dont understand...

and there is a series of massive implosion and explosions brewing ... as the rubber hits the road, and one finds out that several of the new tech emperors have no clothes on ...

Get into assets which produce real products and services, that are needed, not wanted.

Gold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet

Gold is starting to make a comeback after tumbling from an all-time high of almost $4,400 an ounce less than a month ago, which bodes well for shares of miners.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF tends to move at double the rate of the gold price itself and has returned over 125% since the start of the year.

Some strategists believe that the dip from record highs last month was more about profit taking than an end to gold’s bullish run, and that gold is well-positioned to continue rising on its way to another round of record highs.

After tumbling from an all-time high of almost $4,400 an ounce less than a month ago, gold is starting to make a comeback. And that rebound bodes well for shares of miners, a cohort of stocks that acts as a levered bet on the metal’s fortunes, according to an analysis from 22V Research.

Takeaways by Bloomberg A

After decades of trading in the opposite direction as stocks, gold has become more positively correlated with equities amid concerns over a weakening dollar and insatiable demand for the precious metal from central banks.

“You’ve had gold trading like a meme stock for a while,” Jeffrey Jacobson, head of derivatives strategy at 22V, said in a phone interview.

Yes, another upgrade, blast, just takes up so much time

https://au.yachtworld.com/yacht/2025-nautitech-40-open-catamaran-9893458/

Yes, another yacht upgrade, its a tough life

https://au.yachtworld.com/yacht/2023-nautitech-44-open-9233291/

Hope your upgrades a step in the right direction. The bikini clad models are generally an additional cost

the gnome

What a magnificent set of numbers, and dividend to the shareholders. The message to shareholders is ver clear ...we are with you, what a rarity in the gold industry

As predicted headline earnings, while doubled from $0.56 to $1.32 per share from last year, ...as expectations

They generated about $2.37 billion in revenue (slight miss) from its gold production and a nearly three-fold increase in profit from last year

AngloGold also emphasized its strategy to reinvest in its portfolio to bolster its reserves. A key part of this strategy is the Geita mine in Tanzania, where ongoing investment for the next three years is expected to increase the gold reserve by approximately 60% and to extend the life of mine to 10 years.

A feasibility study is currently underway to evaluate the potential for a 1-million-tonner-per-annum mill expansion that could underpin an increase in production to about 600,000 oz. a year for at least a decade. Nice ot be able to expand existing infrastructure and increaese production without having to start a new mine ... or buy another one, although the CEY buy was a beauty for them !!!

GEITA | A TARGET RICH EXPLORATION ENVIRONMENT - nice slide ...

..and ...

ARTHUR GOLD

PROJECT

ONE OF THE LARGEST

GREENFIELDS

DISCOVERIES OF THE

CENTURY IN THE

UNITED STATES...anywhere?slide 20 !!!

Undervalued share?

goodluck punters ... and investors

the gnome

AngloGold Ashanti Q3 2025 Earnings Preview

AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on November 11th, after market close.

The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.32 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $2.53B (+72.1% Y/Y).

Over the last 1 year, AU has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Gold price doing well, could be a great ANZAC Day https://www.rslsouthqueensland.org/anzac-day-parade/

What if the United States is barreling toward a debt crisis that no one in Washington wants to acknowledge? In the Financial Sense (!) Newshour's Jim Puplava breaks down the alarming math behind America's fiscal future. With government spending up 58% in just six years and annual deficits projected at $2 trillion through 2030, he explores how modern monetary theory (MMT) has become the unspoken policy of both political parties ...

https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21458/america-headed-debt-crisis-jim-puplava-road-50-trillion

You can print as much money as you like ...really? reality now?

https://theconversation.com/what-is-modern-monetary-theory-an-economist-explains-how-it-could-help-canada-256868

Summary of key points in the OTHER COUNTRY

Government spending surged 58% in six years, from $4.5 trillion in 2019 to over $7 trillion in 2025, with no signs of fiscal restraint from either political party.

Annual deficits projected at $2 trillion through 2030 could push national debt close to $50 trillion by decade's end, assuming no recession occurs.

Entitlements, defense, and interest on debt now consume 99% of tax revenues, leaving just 1% for all other government operations.

Modern monetary theory has become the de facto fiscal policy of both parties, justifying massive deficit spending during economic expansion.

U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio now mirrors World War II levels at around 125%, raising serious questions about long-term fiscal sustainability.

Credit rating downgrades are likely as the longest government shutdown in history highlights Washington's inability to address spending addiction.

Fiscal dominance is replacing monetary dominance as Treasury borrowing needs begin to constrain Federal Reserve policy options and interest rate decisions.

Financial repression and yield curve control are coming as the Fed faces pressure to keep rates artificially low despite persistent inflation.

Traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolios may no longer work in this environment, requiring greater exposure to precious metals and commodities as hedges.

Affordability crisis driven by inflation will worsen as both parties propose more spending rather than fiscal discipline to address cost-of-living concerns.

AND IN THAT OTHER COLONY

The number of public servants working on the National Disability Insurance Scheme has almost doubled under Labor, despite attempts to reduce costs at the $50 billion agency as spending on the federal bureaucracy hits record levels.

The NDIS now directly employs just over 10,000 people as part of a broader federal hiring spree that is reshaping the makeup of the Australian Public Service, which now has double the number of staff with less than a year of government experience since 2022.

The total public service workforce has grown about 38,200 since 2021 to 193,500, according to the APSC. Australian Bureau of Statistics data this week showed that spending on federal public servant wages grew 9.5 per cent to $40.9 billion in 2024-25.

The state of Victoria's debt approaching $200 billion, recall Australia's gross government debt was around $257.4 billion in June 2013, and its net debt was approximately $174.6 billion in September 2013.

Debt clearly out of control on national and state levels.

Then we have the private credit companies wandering around

Labor’s public service hiring spree has meant the number of public servants with less than one year of experience has rocketed 131 per cent under Labor from 8300 in 2021 to 19,200 in 2024. Despite the higher public services numbers, the number of public servants with more than 10 years of experience fell 3.6 per cent to 79,000.

No

Tesla TSLA -3.50% decrease; shareholders approved a record-setting pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk, a plan designed to motivate the world’s richest man with as much as $1 trillion in additional stock.

Flanked by dancing humanoid robots on a stage bathed in pink and blue light at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, headquarters, Musk thanked the crowd of shareholders who supported the pay package with more than 75% of the votes cast.

“What we’re about to embark upon is not merely a new chapter of the future of Tesla but a whole new book,” Musk said. “I guess what I’m saying is hang onto your Tesla stock,” he added later.

There is a low bar on insanity these days ... LOL

I think the US would have been wound up by creditors long ago ...LOL Too big to fail is one problem, can endlessly print its own money is another, and then they do have a large army that can invade unreasonable creditors

Over priced stocks, and then we have the rest of the circus performing well with the mountains of Private Credit money flapping in the strong winds, with less scrutiny and next to no regulation. The former CEO of auto supplier First Brands Group, has resigned following the company’s recent bankruptcy filing. The resignation comes shortly after First Brands declared bankruptcy, owing over $US10 billion (say what???) to major Wall Street creditors. How big is the private credit market segment? nearly $US2 trillion ($3.08 trillion)– its lending by non-bank institutions that can often be opaque, even to investors?! LOL – and the broader risks created by its rise. Its been known for a long time, but the regulators just sit on their hands ... until Sh$t hits the fan ... and it will ... Of course the industry avows this wont happen (we have heard this before)...The consensus among major global financial bodies is that if the private credit market's rapid growth, opaqueness, and limited oversight continue unchecked, it has the potential to amplify negative economic shocks and become a source of systemic risk to the broader financial system. Game on is my bet.

I would rather bet on a listed high quality gold mining company, than get close to the private credit industry, let alone the tech stock betting on AI (another market darling). Ignoring that there is not even a clear defintion of what AI is? The pump is unbelievable. Lets take on segment of the industry, large language models (LLM's) ... I took 6 well respected LLM's (3 USA 1 Europe and 2 China), and asked each the same 3 questions ... I came across vagueness, bias, illogic, knowledge cut-offs..and so on. Independently of my work ... "Our evaluation reveals significant limitations in current AI capabilities—even the best-performing model (OpenAI’s o3) achieved only 46.8% accuracy, at an average cost of $3.79 per query. It underscores the need for further advancements before reliable deployment in high-stakes finance settings."

https://www.arxiv.org/pdf/2508.00828

Tremendous amounts of money (OPM of course, and private credit) playing with hot air with negative free cash flow

good luck all, looking forward to some positive free cash flow announcment from Anglo...

the gnome

PALANTIR: The Denver-based data analytics company is the 18th most valuable stock in America, eclipsing oil giants and most big banks. Its share price—when compared with its sales—far exceeds Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Oracle. It blows away defense contractors.

Palantir Chief Executive Alex Karp has consistently punched back against anyone who questions its ascendance, arguing analysts don’t know how to assess a company like his. “I would tell you I don’t know nor does anyone else know what Palantir is actually worth,” Karp said in an interview. (concerned?)

No other company currently in the S&P 500 hit a $490 billion valuation as quickly and with as little in sales (who needs sales when you have hot air and gross bravado) as Palantir did on Monday, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of inflation-adjusted FactSet market data going back to 1984. Dividends, nah, just believe and invest in the hot breeze blowing...

You see this behaviour, you might recall you have seen it all before, and you might buy a bar of gold or a share in a Great GOLD Mining Company, who has great margins, great free cash flow, a solid ESG strategy and delivering, and returning money to shareholders (dividends)

ANZ senior commodities analyst Daniel Hynes on Wednesday said gold had also been hit by the US dollar’s longest winning streak since July.

But Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, said that while the price of bullion had entered a “cooling phase” after dropping two weeks in a row, this was more likely the market releasing pressure than a reversing trend.

He said the drivers of the surge – US government debt, lingering inflation and heavy central bank buying – remained intact.

Customers inside the ABC Bullion store in Sydney’s CBD. There has been no let up in demand for the precious metal. Now there is a bit of a lull, they are buying more !!!

Indeed, the World Gold Council last week reported that central banks had bought 220 tonnes in the September quarter, lifting year-to-date purchases to 634 tonnes, close to last year’s record level.

“Gold’s pause still looks like a breather, not a breakdown,” Hansen said. “Seasonal softness, temporary Chinese policy noise, and a firmer [US] dollar explain the short-term retreat, but none change the longer-term narrative. The same forces that fuelled this year’s rally … are likely to reassert themselves, making the next meaningful leg higher a 2026 story.”

Goldman Sachs has maintained that the price of gold could rise beyond $US4900 an ounce by the end of 2026, a nearly 25 per cent gain from current levels.

And RBC Capital Markets gold strategist Christopher Louney said that political uncertainty and fears surrounding inflation and US Federal Reserve independence could push it to $US5000.

Your choice ...

It has been happening for a while, and it has a lot of ramifications, but one is the continual debasement of value of fiat currency. It will not stop, as most governments know that debt, menas that taxes dont go up ... and they remain popular, and in power, and so on.

Debt wont stop, they cannot even repay the interest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1jhoU9Mp_U

Place your bets on the Irish for the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday

RAY DALIO: Recently, a lot of people asked me a lot of questions about gold, so I invited anyone who cared to ask me questions about gold to do so, and I answered most of them.  

But I also wanted to share the most important things I think about gold in a nutshell, which is the purpose of this article.

It seems to me indisputably true that gold is a money and it is the money that is least at risk of being devalued and/or confiscated.

Here’s why I believe that’s true.

....https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gold-safest-money-ray-dalio-u1axc/

enjoy

Just remember that shareholders have made a lot more on share value than dividends, although the dividend is such a sweet reminder of the benefits of being invested ?!

AngloGold Ashanti will publish its Q3 2025 Earnings Release for the quarter and nine months ended 30 September 2025 on Tuesday, 11 November 2025.

Webcast and conference call at 09:00 EST / 14:00 BST / 16:00 SAST.

Donald is a doer for gold, if not more a believer than ever. He knows what hot air is worth

...Trump administration indicated that bullion would be exempt from duties. The market had a brief scare that this wouldn’t be the case, after US Customs and Border Protection said in August that certain gold bars are subject to Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.” However, Trump himself then weighed in to say that gold wouldn’t face import taxes.

..and whats the game going on ... independence from the growingly egocentric and dysfunctional US and its global financial system

Gold helps diversify a country’s foreign exchange reserves and guard against currency depreciation.

Central banks have been net buyers of gold for the past 15 years, but the speed of their purchases doubled in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the US and its allies froze Russian central bank funds held in their countries, it underscored how foreign currency assets are vulnerable to sanctions.

In 2024, central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of bullion for the third year in a row, according to the World Gold Council, and they hold around a fifth of all the gold that’s ever been mined. The nations that have been most active in building up their reserves include those that weren’t part of the post-Second World War Bretton Woods system — a monetary order that was essentially underpinned by gold.

...

China, having been burnt by the USD shenaikans, is obviously doing what it likes, and it loves gold

The People’s Bank of China has been on a buying streak, adding to its gold holdings for an 11th consecutive month in September. The PBOC is also looking to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves, in a bid to strengthen its standing in the global bullion market, Bloomberg reported.

...

The price decline in October was driven by a confluence of factors: positive sentiment on the US-China trade front, a strengthening of the dollar making gold more expensive, and the end of the seasonal Diwali buying spree in India.

There was also a lack of visibility over investor positioning in the gold futures market as the US government shutdown made this data unavailable (Donalds hand is everywhere!). Without these figures, speculators may be more likely to build abnormally large positions one way or another...some were caught a bit short, so to speak ...

Wont be stopping this train any time soon is what many pick

https://www.lynalden.com/reasons-to-buy-gold/

good luck to us all ...

Thank goodness for CEASEFIRES...Palestinians in Gaza have experienced the deadliest 24 hours since the start of the United States-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect almost three weeks ago.

Israel killed more than 100 people, including 46 children, in attacks late on Tuesday and on Wednesday. Medical sources told Al Jazeera the strikes hit all over Gaza....

Is anyone going to stop this