Member Info for goldgnome

Yes Mr Bond what should a poor man do? Or inversely what should a poor man NOT do? Watchout for the AI blow out. For sure... Watch out for private credit...without doubt My personal dealings with these "gentlemen" is that its the old game of abusing "other peoples money" for personal gain in a lightly regulated part of the market, and I am betting this is not going to end well ... unless you "short the game". But watch out for contagion

A crucial and underappreciated point is that private credit is far more entangled with the banking system than commonly assumed:

Non-bank lenders, private credit funds, hedge funds, and specialist finance firms borrow from banks and rely on revolving credit lines and bridge loans. Bank lending to non-bank financial institutions has surged — it now accounts for all of the growth in bank lending. One regional bank reportedly has $62 billion in loans to shadow lenders, representing a fifth of its entire loan book.

Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston finds that banks retain indirect exposure to the credit risk of private credit loans even though they do not directly originate or hold those loans. Each publicly traded Business Development Company (BDC) had a loan from at least one major bank at some point, and bank borrowing represented a large portion of the funding that fueled BDC asset growth.

The evidence doesn't point to an imminent 2008-style crash (it is a possibility), but rather a slow-burning stress test of a $3 trillion market that was built almost entirely during a period of near-zero interest rates, by managers who had never experienced a real downturn, lending to highly leveraged companies with weakened covenants and opaque financials (ugly stuff?). The unique danger is that contagion this time would flow through insurance companies and pension funds — slower, less visible, and potentially more damaging to ordinary people's retirement savings than a classic bank run.

So beware Mr Bond.

GOLD? Evidence of scandals and malpractice regarding gold price manipulation at COMEX and related exchanges has transitioned from "conspiracy theory" to documented legal factS over the last decade. Investigations by the DOJ and CFTC have resulted in billions of dollars in fines and criminal convictions for high-level traders...but the west seems to tolerate this whereas in the east you buy gold, you buy a bar, not a promise to buy sometime in the future

Well run companies producing things that are needed or highly desired are things I invest in.

Commentary on what passes for a rubust gold market ...US robustness (??)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwfII7ZFQF4&t=147s

Talking sense

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USGjSU5yXh8

Note the big investment firms like Blackrock SP going south...down 20% this year alone...slow marhc down since Dec 2024

GREAT TIME TO BUY ANGLGOLD ... AS I AM DOING

Great day for a punt, or better for an invest

a camel is a horse designed by a committee? there are a few relevant variations of witty (and often painful) observations about group dynamics (that can be applied to populations, lol). the most famous versions are attributed to authors and observers of human behavior who noticed that collective intelligence often trends toward the "lowest common denominator". (which is a bit of a concern about the concept of democracy, but thats for another day?)

here are the three most prominent ways this is phrased that i know of ....

1. the "division" rule

"the iq of a committee is the iq of the smartest member divided by the number of people on the committee."

this version suggests a mathematical erosion of intelligence. the idea is that as you add more "smart" voices, the friction of consensus, ego, and bureaucracy creates a "drag" that makes the final output far less intelligent than what any single member could have produced alone.

2. the terry pratchett version

the late fantasy author terry pratchett captured this brilliantly in his discworld series:

"the intelligence of a creature known as a 'crowd' is the square root of the number of people in it."

he argued that individuals are smart, but a group is a "large, lumbering idiot" that reacts to basic impulses rather than reasoned thought.

3. the "consensus" paradox

"a committee is a cul-de-sac down which ideas are lured and then quietly strangled." (attributed to sir barnett ****s)

while not explicitly about iq, it speaks to the same result: smart people enter a room with brilliant, disruptive ideas, but the need for a unanimous "safe" decision filters out the genius, leaving only the mediocre.

why does this happen? (the "smart person" trap)

this "lowered iq" effect usually stems from three specific behaviors:

social loafing: individuals feel less accountable for the final decision, so they don't apply their full critical thinking.

the "expert" friction: highly intelligent people often have strong convictions. in a committee, they may spend more energy on territorial defense or "out-smarting" each other than on solving the actual problem.

risk aversion: committees are designed to minimize blame, not maximize gain. smart people will often agree to a "dumber" plan because it is the one least likely to result in someone getting fired.

a witty takeaway or 3?:

if you want to move at the speed of a startup but have the oversight of a committee, remember: "a camel is a horse designed by a committee." get a good advisor and not a committee of experts ... how do you design a better political system, that does not get the us taxpayers and smart guys wondering whatever went wrong (maybe that "another day" is coming down the back stretch? ) ?

how does an investor make better decisions..get a committee of expert advisors and listen to the lot...lol

happy investing and good luck the punters ...

Extraordinary performance by the Maestro of endless distractions (the US tax payers must be wondering seriously about what to do about such derangement), in a time of endless distractions (social media LOL). Dont get caught up int he distractions.

For those wanting to read some great investment advice from a top class investor, who has performed through the last several decades, and seen most of the market distractions I would recomend https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-complete-collection.pdf

The energy price and stupidity will stop soon, clearly unsustainable and has no moral / ethical basis, let alone logic or provision for building a sustainable future in the middle east. Energy price stays high, and what happens to inflation? Other businesses ...

Watch out for the market shakers, they want your shares...in what is a great company

the gnome

In March 2026, S&P Global released its World Exploration Trends 2026 report (important for supply/demand). The gold numbers looked healthy: exploration budgets surged 11% to US$6.2 billion, capturing a full 50% of all global nonferrous exploration spending.

Gold is getting more exploration money than any other metal. By a wide margin.

But look at where that money is going.

Near-mine drilling — the low-risk work of expanding known deposits a few hundred meters in each direction — hit a record high of 45% of total exploration spending. Companies are drilling the edges of mines they already own. They’re adding years to existing operations. This is maintenance, not exploration.

Meanwhile, grassroots exploration — the high-risk, early-stage work that actually finds new deposits — collapsed to an all-time low. Down from roughly 50% of total budgets in the mid-1990s to barely one-fifth today. The number fo Tier 1 gold discoveries...NONE

This is the paradox at the heart of the discovery collapse:

The industry is spending more on gold exploration than ever — and allocating less to actually finding gold than at any point in history.

At the same time we must recall all of the low hanging fruit has been picked over several times, the dregs left gt dressed up as fabulous riches. Exploration is getting tougher, requiring new eyes to look deeper, BUT THERE ARE NONE !!!! Despite significant investments in making them. All of stuff about AI ??? It will only pick over the old data sets acquired, and besides AI has been around since 1980, LOL. What has it found....

So there is a supply side drought coming, and with the demand side very healthy, one would conclude the price of gold is going to move upwards.

The cost of energy is going up due to the gross stupidity by some few people, but this will not last. There is a spike in the enrgy proice, then there will be a reaction from producers, leading to oversupply, price drop and so on. The market is expected to cool significantly as supply routes normalize, and analysyts predict Brent to drop below $90/bbl by late 2026 and average approximately $76/bbl through the first half of 2027.

NO ONE IS PREDICTING NEW SIGNIFICANT GOLD DISCOVERIES, NO ONE IS PREDICTING NEW EFFECTIVE GOLD EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGY OR EYES.

AngloGold is one of the few companies that are making new tier 1 greenfields disoveries....Tropicana (Australia), The Nevada Projects (6.1 million ounces of measured and indicated , 9.6 million ounces of inferred resource and growing!!!)

Dont be fooled by the markets, and short term stupidity of a few very odd people.

the gnome

For those wanting to make sense of the mayhem in a economics sense ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih9u2xLmZoE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V69tjxVdxZE

There is an enormous amount of BS about economics, mainly as economists are bogged down in theory, and very few understand accounting (wiff) or how the world works.

They then influence politicians who know less, who then create policies and outcomes which are nothing short of a trainwreck in (not!!) slow motion

good luck to us all ... and we all know how much the Orange Man knows ...

Dividend Values (Paid March 27, 2026)

CurrencyExchange Rate Total Dividend Per Share

Australian Dollar (AUD) $2.51 AUD

British Pound (GBP) £1.31 GBP

If there is a way to shake the tree, and get the weak to sell out, so the others can grab the divi and a capital gain ...not a bad day at the office?

be careful what you do ...

Trump Should Be the New Ayatollah? No One Believes His Jesus Pic Lie & MAGA Reacts to Pope Attacks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueI5kQhccPQ

Some more indepth quality conversation about the move east with gold (in fact this has been happening for decades).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKxcvA7XRwo&t=1046s

It does seem to a far improved financial system than the conflicted, unbalanced mess at the moment.

Looks like Greenland is back on the WAR MENU again ... LOL (sadly)

the gnome

THE BIGGEST SCAM IN THE HISTORY OF GΟⅬD MARKETS IS UNWІNDING

Let me give you a number.

90 to 1.

That's how many paper gοⅼd ϲⅼaіmѕ exist for every real ounce in COMEX vaults.

Ninety prοmіѕеs. One ounce of metal.

It's like a game of musical chairs. Except thеrе are 90 players. And οnⅼy 1 chair.

When the music ѕtοps, 89 people ⅼοѕе.

And the music IS ѕtοpping.

COMEX gοⅼd inventory dropped 25％ last year alone. The gοⅼd is flowіng East. Shanghai. Mumbai. Moscow.

On May 29th, contraϲt holders can demand delivery. If too many show up at once..

Another day,. another 3 about faces ...

April 08 (QNA) - Gold prices rose sharply after US President Donald Trump approved a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

Spot gold climbed 2.3 percent to $4,811.66 per ounce, while U.S. June futures surged 3.3 percent to $4,840.20 per ounce.

Other precious metals also saw gains: spot silver rose 4.3 percent to $76.08 per ounce, platinum increased 2.4 percent to $2,004.95, and palladium climbed 2.1 percent to $1,500. (QNA)

BRICS+ nations now hold 17.4% of global gold reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019, while the dollar’s share of global reserves fell to its lowest level since 1994 – and one BRICS member could well buy as much as all other countries combined, according to Michael Harris, technical analyst at EBC Financial Group.

The rally has pushed forecasts sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank targeting $6,000, JPMorgan at $6,300, Goldman Sachs at $5,400, and Societe Generale calling $6,000 conservative.

Saudi Arabia holds approximately 323 tonnes of gold, just 2.6% of its total reserves,” Harris noted. “For a nation sitting on over $500 billion in reserves, that allocation is remarkably low. A move to just 5% gold allocation would require purchases equivalent to the entire projected central bank demand for 2026 from a single buyer.”

Central banks are allocating a growing share of their portfolios to gold, and the Hormuz crisis has only reinforced the urgency.”

Gold will be a greater proportion of everyones asset base ...

TRUST THE GOVERNMENT TO SPEND ALL OF THE FUTURE GENERATIONS MONEY

Government Spending Out Of Control – Up $129 Billion A Year From A Decade Prior

Growth to federal government spending alone now accounts for approximately 32 per cent of GDP growth. This is almost at the same height it was during Covid, at 34 per cent.

Federal government spending under the Albanese government has averaged just over $70 billion per quarter. This is 50 per cent higher than the quarterly average from 2013-2020.

and now the expenditure is tipped to increase, to compensate for the flow on effects from the ridiculous war in the middle east, which shows there is a total incapacity to learn from the past.

In the short term (weeks), expectation is for gold to remain "trapped" between $4,500 and $5,000 as it reacts to daily headlines and Trump's self contradictory rants.

However, the long-term structural trend is heavily favored by the "America First" fallout. If the U.S. Federal Reserve is eventually forced to cut rates due to a domestic recession (a "tail risk" for late 2026), major institutions like BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs are forecasting a breakout toward $5,400 to $6,000/oz.

The latter is my bet, so the short term volatility represents buying opportunities for AnglGold...

good luck to the innocent women and children in the Middle East

the gnome

Physical Flows Signal a Shift in Gold and Silver Feat. Andy Schectman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rut_xqQQ8gk&t=57s

This commentary has at least in part been out amongst other, but it is true. They do not play it right out and look at the interplay between the paper gold price which is plastered on the wall and main stream media, the price of physical gold ... and then also do not look at the interplay between the paper price of gold (manipulated) and the share price of gold mining companies...its a very interesting development and this has been happening for a decade or more now. We are currently in a "bifurcated" market. The West still sets the price for financial gold, but the East is increasingly setting the price for actual gold. If (this is a certainty) the "trust gap" in the US system continues to widen, the world will naturally gravitate toward the market where you can actually take delivery of the bars—and that market is increasingly controlled by Beijing. Very interesting Andrew MacGuire video

MEAN TIME IN THE LAND OF THE FREE ... President Trump on Friday released a budget proposal for the 2027 fiscal year, seeking $1.5 trillion in defense spending, by far the largest dollar amount in modern history. The proposal for military spending included $1.1 trillion for the Defense Department for the next fiscal year, as well as another $350 billion for critical munitions, an effort to expand the defense industrial base and other matters. Trump promised a $1.5 trillion defense request in January, before the U.S. launched large-scale strikes on Iran.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released in February 2026, the United States federal deficit for Fiscal Year 2026 is projected to be $1.9 trillion...an average of about $158billion per month...BUT The government recorded a deficit of $308 billion for the month of February alone !!?? and guess what March is going to be ....ah well doesnt matter...its ALL JUST FUNNY MONEY....

Keep your eye on gold, the difference between physical and paper, the flows of gold ...

LAST BUT NOT LEAST: Donald Trump is pursuing a major, controversial extension to the White House to build a 90,000-square-foot neoclassical ballroom, which involves demolishing and replacing the existing East Wing. The project, estimated at $200–450 million, aims to accommodate larger events (lol), but has faced a temporary court-ordered construction halt and widespread opposition from critics AND MOST AMERICANS WHO WILL HAVE TO FOOT ANOTHER BILL LOL.

the gnome

Happy days!!! As predicted ... and who can predict the Orange Man, except to say there is so much bluff, bluster and BS

Surprisingly, I dont think it is off topic. The US$ relies on nations trusting the US Govt, that it will honor its promises (etc).

With so many promises flying around like shrapnell and most inaccurate, many profund lies, my guess is trust has been lost, and I think this is what we see the Central Banks of the world buying gold. Unlikely to end anytime soon.

WHERE THERE IS A BUCK THERE IS A POLITICIAN....A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in the asset manager’s Defence Industrials Active ETF, the people said, shortly before the US launched military action against Tehran.

Pathetic

say no more...

Rick Rule shares hard-earned lessons on navigating market volatility. Drawing from decades of experience, he explains why investors must act against fear, buy when others are forced to sell, and focus on long-term fundamentals over short-term price moves...thats AngloGold ...

https://www.youtube.com/live/NFDVc6qDsXc

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGJ3Q7r5I48

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNJEkUTWvI0

Dire Straits: Consumer confidence falls to all-time low