Member Info for Gambier

Until the scoping study for the graphite deposit is published it is very difficult apply any value. I am discounting it from my own valuation. It is however a very interesting asset that might produce some significant cash flows in a few years time. I think a lot of people will be following your strategy of selling on the Kallak decision.

You are just being told that what you are saying is factually 100% incorrect. It is black and white, what you have stated is absolutely wrong, it isn't a debate, you are simply being corrected regards your total misunderstanding of the basics of trading. I will continue to post counters to your unproven and quite ridiculous BEM conspiracy theories and you, whatever you might claim, will continue to read them. You are an extremely emotional man, are you sure the stock market is good for your mental well-being? You have already had BEM related breakdowns on here, I don't think any more is going to help matters. Top marks for playing the victim though, the subtle projection of your own bad behaviour onto others was very well done.

Understanding trade volumes is useful insofar as it allows you to understand they are not particularly useful in gaining any insight or advantage. This partly explains why Level 2 isn't worth paying for. The liquidity of BEM is perfectly reasonable and book trades perfectly fine. Of course, the emotionally invested need their market manipulation conspiracies to calm their nerves, but they can never provide any evidence for, nor demonstrate any technical understanding of, the supposed manipulation. Unlike many on here, I have never actually sold a BEM share, only bought. So I am as far away from being a trader of this share as possible. There isn't any conspiracy related to this share, it is simply a story of a well managed company being mistreated by a dysfunction state bureaucracy.

A trade is executed at the bid price or the ask price (at or above / at or below). When executed at the bid price this is the bid volume and when at the ask price the ask volume. So when you have different bid and ask volumes it merely reflects more traders buying at the ask price or bid price. This doesn�t change the fact that for each execution there must be a bought share and a sold share, how can it be any other way? In these executions shares cannot be created or destroyed, so for every share bought/sold there has to be another share sold/bought. How has anybody opened a share account and bought shares without understanding this most basic mechanism. Are there people reading this share board who don�t understand why he is talking absolute nonsense when he says �more buys than sells�? Do people seriously not understand how incredibly stupid a statement that it is. As I have stated so many times before, the trade data on these sites are estimates in any case, London South East states this clearly. Maybe the volume experts might like to answer the following question: if bid and ask volume is so indicative of future price, why don�t traders use it to make exacting predictions of future movement and so make themselves millionaires within the week? So you don�t understand volume, let�s see if you comprehend why even if you did understand volume, it wouldn�t be any use to you.

Of course you will block me, you keep up the pretence.

I thought you had blocked me (for the fourth time)? You do seem to have strange relationship with the truth don’t you? It is not a theory, if you don’t understand why you are embarrassing yourself with such a crass misunderstanding of the basic operation of a share trade, then there is no hope for you. I’m any case, I will continue to correct your factual errors and conspiratorial nonsense. How is victimhood going by the way? Have you been bedwetting on another board?

Even this does drop back in the next few weeks it would not be a negative sign nor would an increase be a positive. Without concrete news (leaked?) it is all noise.

Number of buys equals number of sells, somebody is always on the other side. 60/40 is total nonsense. This could drop 15% and it wouldn’t mean anything nor does any transient rise. All market noise that doesn’t require any market maker conspiracy theories or empty stories of positivity.

The liquidity is fine on both markets. The volumes are low because there is little interest in the share right now and that is perfectly understandable. If I was the market maker I would sit happy with a 15% spread, I wouldn�t want to get caught on either side with of the dramatic SP move that is likely to happen in the coming months. We have not received any new information that gives us any greater insight into the likely decision, so watching paint dry is the logical market position. Just more cash burn and wasted opportunity to accept.

Does anybody have any analysis on the likely need for a cash call? Management have previous and if payment problems become a longer term problem then investors could be getting bent over again.

Have to disagree, the stuck gun is in Foos control. After all the sh*t he has caused he could climb down there and retrieve that gun himself. He should then take his oil covered body to the Presidents Palace, slam the the retrieved gun down on the presidential desk and demand payment. He should then walk to Russia (barefoot) and sell West Med through door to door selling in Siberia. Once he has got both payments he ought to fly to Vegas and gamble all the money on Baccarat, playing the finest hands in the history of game. I estimate this would bring in �200 million, which he should return to shareholders as a dividend.

A paid troll? I wondered how long it would be before the conspiracy theories would come out. When you make bold statements about any share, it is quite reasonable for somebody to enquire about the basis of those statements and that includes the reasoning and the evidence. If in response to such reasonable and polite enquiries, you can only call people morons, trolls, lonely old men etc, then it is you who has the problem and it is you who brings the discussion board into disrepute. If you cannot cope with people politely asking questions relating to basic oil and gas share analysis (2P/EV, P/E, Netback, field performance, Capex/Opec etc) then it is you who should question your presence on a discussion board. If you can�t cope with somebody holding the opposite opinion to your own, it is you who should question your emotional suitability to conflicting debate. You cannot answer my very basic questions because you don�t know the answers. You cannot provide the solid reasoning and evidence to support your own opinion because such reasoning doesn�t exist and nor does any evidence. As far I can see, you have seen that this share was once at 100 pence and above and you are taking a chance punt that this goes into production and those old prices will be realised once again (if they happened before - they can happen again). You are not providing any solid metric valuations, you are not offering accurate proabilities for production based on genuine knowledge of industry interest in these reserves and you are not offering quality analysis of the likely compensation based on in-depth legal understanding of the given claims. As such your positive opinion is no more valid than any negative opinion, you are simply arguing the rights of picking red over black.

No, I pointed out that as a comparison to market cap, there where other oil and gas companies in better financial position. Exillon happed to have similar reserves (albeit in a massively more developed state) and a similar market cap. Like RKH, Exillon has deep uncertainties. So it just happens to be a ballpark comparison, I never claimed either were investable recommendations. Again, you have got it wrong. As to the RKH valuation, where does $1 per barrel 2C reserves come from? Where does your $20 per barrel produced come from? Is that netback? Why is your target �460 million valuation?

Rookie, you asked for the analysis then say you have better things to do than read it - do you understand how that is a bit odd. I know it is difficult when you try and call somebodies bluff and it backfires in your face. You are obviously not a details, empirical or even reading type person, more gut instinct, emotional gambling type, which is fine - each to their own. But are you not a little embarrassed that you have to avoid answering the most elementary questions about the most basic understanding of a share you are invested in? I know you can use school yard level diversions like �I�m too busy�, but anybody reading this can see you don�t know most basic metrics of a share you have invested in and that you are obviously going on a coin flip gamble on whether a field will go into production and how this is related to previous share prices.

rpoodle, it helps if you actually read what has been posted. Yes, you googled Exillon Energy and you copied the first sentences from the first search results - not detailed research is it? You also incorrect about the debt, they paid future years capex upfront because of the ruble valuation, it is matter of book keeping. And I have stated the company is not investable, you didn�t need to tell me. As to having the first go, you haven�t answered as single question - again try reading what has been posted. So what is your 2P/EV valuation and P/E valuation for RKH? How are you determining net back?

It hasn�t been a 25% decline, it has been a 50% decline. A huge error within your first few words - great start. Drilling has ceased allowing natural depletion of the current well stock. Low oil prices and a tax exemption that escalates at higher prices being the reason for this. The estimated production in Kayum Neft 2017-2021 via 70 production directional wells will increase production to 639 thousand tonnes in 2021. The estimated production in Nem Oil for the 2017-2021 via 19 production directional wells will increase production to 156 thousand tonnes in 2019. EBITDA for 2018 to 2021 is estimated $91 million, $130 million, $145 million and $127 million respectively. This assumes 2018 to 2021 Brent price of $56, $63, $67 and $68. Net cash position in 2021 is estimated to be $380 million with a nil debt position and will include a $350 infastructure upgrade. Reserves are predicted to be replaced post-production programme. 2P/EV valuations in Russia have been between $2 to $5 dollars for recent transactions. P/E ratios are currently 5 to 9. Current oil prices are well in excess of Exillons projected oil prices and the current Ruble/oil price ratio is much more advantageous than Exillons assumed ratio (the current ratio makes oil production more profitable than when oil was over $100). All very conservative stuff. Is Exillon a good investment? Probably not. The main shareholder is a fraudster who has put his own people in charge of the company and many accusations have been made by the likes of the Moscow Post. So where do you get your $20 barrel figure from? Is that netback? How are you defining netback? How are you able to multiply the same per barrel figure by the same production number for every single year? How is that possible? What oil price projections are you using ? What is the 2P/EV and P/E valuation? All incredibly basic stuff, I�m sure you can answer with ease, I�ve only asked three times.

No, you haven�t answered any of the questions at all. I asked what value you apply to all the reserves you have claimed for RKH - you haven�t given an answer - you are just repeating 2C reserves. I asked what the net profit/loss will be - you have just randomly said �nil� - it is highly unlikely to be exactly zero. I asked the likelihood of court success (precedent?) - you have given any answer. I asked the likely compensation - you have gone from claiming upto �300 million to a �potential bonus� of �50 million - so random as to be obvious uneducated guess work. So there are multiple value factors and their respective probabilities which would add up to your risk/reward analysis for this share. I am simply asking you to elucidate this investment decision process. At the moment it looks like you are flipping coin on the Falklands going into production, relating this to historic prices and then hoping for a multibagger. You are free to do this of course, but don�t pretend it to be anything more than this.

You need to actually read company statements before you can make comment. Exillon Energy has paid $350 million upfront for all capex over the next four years (to get better value) so they have a technical net debt which will be cleared in Sept 2018. In principle they have $160 million net cash. Production will increase by 35% this year and continue to increase. What you have done is googled Exillon Energy, looked at the first few results and then (in an illiterate mannner) scrawled some nonsense as if it was erudition. Exillon Energy is probably uninvestable because of the major shareholder, but you didn�t know that. It still stands, RKH is not a strong as other similar market cap oil and gas with regards to debt, profit and producing reserves. If this isn�t true please provide the evidence.

So you have failed to answer a single question put to you. This is particularly strange when the questions are all based on statements you have made with exacting confidence. So let�s be clear: 1) you have no idea what net profit (loss) is going to be 2) you have no idea what value to apply to current reserves 3) you have no idea, as matter of legal precedent, the likelihood of success in the current compensation case and how much money is likely to be paid out 4) you have no idea, that considering our respective posting styles, we would never be part of the same social circles and so it would be highly unlikely that I would be your �mate� and that compared to you I would be considered a �moron�.

Sorry, can you just be clear on a few things. What is the projected net profit for 2018? There is a 1.4 billion reserve potential? What is the likelihood of this becoming 2P reserves? What 2P/EV does that produce for a RKH? There is upto �300 million cash on its way? What is the likelihood of this being the actual court decision? Oh, and I don�t have to be positive about this share to have the right to post here. I will post when and where I want.