Member Info for Gambier

Calm down bedwetter, I know your nerves are shot with this share. Now get your toys and put them back in your pram and calmly watch your investment lose value.

Poor drill result and further delays - SP continues to drift downwards.

From EGM document it looks like Net Profit peaks at around $100 million for 2020 with $500 million in bank. The document is quite confusing, would be interesting to see it reviewed by an expert O and G analyst as think there are many assumptions to be made and these figures might include double counting.

Putin and Sechin are reported to want Kohtins oil assets and intend to take them as 'compensation'. Exillon Energy is a listed company on LSE and so I imagine that is why the Saudi Prince is interested in this asset. Khotin knows that Exillon is worthless as long as he is associated with it, I wouldn't be surprised if he sold the lot. However, this might all be a diversion to buy himself time.

Deprivation of the bank "Yugra" license forced its owner Alexei Khotin to seek additional funds for his projects. He wants to attract an investor from Saudi Arabia to the oil company Exillon, and, according to Kommersant's information, suggests that the Saudis think about investing in Russian Oil of their partner Sergei Podlisetskiy. The owner of the bank Yugra, Alexei Khotin, discussed with Saturday's Saudi Prince Al-Walid ibn Talal the attraction of investments into Russian projects of a businessman, businessmen said yesterday. It was, in particular, about investments in the lost license bank Yugra, in the oil company Exillon Energy and the Four Seasons Moscow Hotel in Okhotny Ryad. Also yesterday, Exillon suddenly announced the holding of an EGM on August 30, which is likely to be the subject of an investor attraction. The Exillon reports for 2016 indicate that in the second half of the year the company attracted consultants "in connection with the potential M & A transaction", spending $ 5.5 million for this purpose. The interlocutor of Kommersant asserts that negotiations with the Saudis are being conducted actively, the scheme of a possible deal will be ready for the shareholders' meeting. However, he assures, Mr. Khotin does not intend to go out entirely from Exillon's capital, but wants to raise funds for his projects after the license was withdrawn from Yugra Bank at the end of July. In addition, the emergence of an Saudi prince as an investor could protect a businessman from possible attacks by creditors.

Very bizarre to see anybody buying UEN at this price - a gamble for a relatively small upside but a huge downside. Even if you have a silly double digit average you could sell, get half your money back and make it up elsewhere.

Minus cash market cap stands at £45 million and falling.

I still don't understand why this tripled from a sub two pence, I took the profit anyway. I still think Urals is a reasonably solid company. Has some interesting assets and debt levels are easily serviced. I just don't see value at these prices. I wouldn't buy back in unless it went back to two pence old money. A very boring share.

Not sure, I d

So you haven't got a metric based reason for your position - just an emotional one. If 'increased communication' supplants metric based decision making, then I guess your management boll*cks talk of 'new horizons' holds some weight. Now that I have triggered you, I am happy to post much more often on this share. Speak to you soon.

Keep your emotions in check, your posts reveal you to be a bit of a bed wetter. I posted when I bought in at below two pence and when I sold over six pence - consistent all the way through. IF this drops down to 45p I would certainly buy back in. IF the drill results are spectacular and this rockets from here - well done to everybody who has held on. I'm simply suggesting that the current SP doesn't seem to offer much value on the upside, but a possible sheer drop on the downside. If you can offer a metric based argument against my position please enlighten me. I have read all the company releases and I see nothing that convinces me otherwise.

What is the argument for investment at these prices? What is the upside from here even if a good drill result comes through ? Current market cap looks like fair value.

But what is the investment case for holding at these prices. UEN was value at 2 pence, once it tripled, profit ought to have been taken. Maybe this could move up from here but the amount will be marginal considering the major movement that has already occurred. Balance this against substantial risk on the downside - poor drill result + no pipeline of significant news - you could be back at 2 pence. Sorry, I don't see defensive value here.

Minus cash this company is currently worth about £54 million. So a P/E of 1 and 2P reserves valuation $ 0.14 per barrel. Current Russian Oil company average is P/E of 9 and $2 to $5 per barrel.

Russian news today announces that Ugra Bank (owned by Khotin and where all EXI cash is deposited) is bankrupt. Khotin is claiming he will inject $500 million into the bank via 'shareholders' - the market doesn't accept the claim and it looks like the Russian central bank will have to step in and put the bank into special measures.

As to Khotins plan, he will do what he does to every business he is involved in. He buys a controlling stake in the business - takes out huge loans through that business - deposits the cash in a bank he owns (Bank Ugra) - then moves that money into accounts held in Cyprus. He is stripping Exillon Energy.

The 2017 H1 results in August ought to show a net cash position of around $160 million. Minus a likely market cap of $250 million, the company will be valued at $90 million. This produces a 2P/EV of 20 cents per 2P barrel and P/E of about 1.8. The company is 75% owned by Russians working in concert with each other. The remaining 25% free float is valuing the company as fraud - which it ought to be.

Not too far off being valued at cash

The update posted for 2016 doesn't really present anything new - the company is not a going concern without a massive injection of cash from an investor (hundreds of millions of dollars) - we already know this. They say they are confident they will get one this year.

They promised to update as usual, but unless you are going to hire yourself a Moscow based lawyer and take very expensive action against them, what are you going to do about it?