Member Info for Gambier

Well, investing in a company based on an IC article riddled with errors is one way of losing money.

Talvivaara is in no way related to Terrafame. It is no longer a mining company, it is literally a shell company with no assets or money to invest. It is game over. Finished.

The IC article didn't provide any analysis , in fact it contained a litany of errors regards to production figures and net cash position. It merely offered a change in 'sentiment' without any serious metric analysis or comparative valuations. There is very little interest the in 25% free float, four figures sum temporarily distort the price Need to see the net back per barrel for 2H 2016 to see how profitable they are. Then see what type of drilling campaign is being offered up. Once they are known then you can make projected P/E . A very significant drilling schedule will help to rebuild production rates and net profit but also help convert the abnormally large 2P preserves to the unusually small 1P reserves.

Unlikely, neither of the two major shareholders have anywhere near the money to buyout the rest of the share issue. According to Russian newspapers they buy on credit hoping for a turnaround. Nearly all the Russian listed stocks have jumped, so maybe some positioning by small funds wanting exposure to Russia. The free float is now only 25% with the other 75% not selling a single share for years. Liquidity is very poor with this stock hence the movement on very low volumes.

SP rising with no new news apart from declining production. Very small volumes with reasonably large spreads. Possible reasons: 1) Oil price stable at mid fifties. 2) Possibilty of removal of oil related sanctions leading to an inflow of investment and technology 3) Possible drilling campaign increasing production rate 5) Net back per barrel vs 2P reserves. At $34 dollars a barrel produced an annualised net profit of $50 million dollars. At $55 would probably be $75 million dollars. Returning to previous production highs would produce a net profit of over $100 million dollars. There are over 500 million barrels to develop at these return rates. 6) Over $100 million cash reserves that with the currently extremely low Russian cost base would be sufficient to get production to 30k bpd

I think they will wind it up in the next few months, they have no business, just a shell company with a terrrible reputation.

SP up again

Who would want to keep the book on this share? They need a bookmaker not a market maker.

Down again.

No, the two companies are completely unrelated. Shareholders were wiped out with regards to the mining operations. A shell company is left which is pretty much worthless.

Most of Ruspetro acreage is tight oil formations that are much superior to Bazhenov. So remove sanctions and Ruspetro gains access to funding and possible partners.

Likely, most of the Arctic developments would have been uneconomic even in the absence of sanctions. But experts see massive potential in the country’s untapped tight oil reserves, most of which lie within the massive Bazhenov tight oil basin in western Siberia. The basin is similar in size and scope to the Bakken formation in the northern U.S. and Canada. “It’s probably superior (to the Bakken), but we don’t have enough data on it to be certain,” said Ronald Smith, an analyst at Citigroup based in Moscow. Exploiting Bazhenov’s reserves would likely require the application of U.S. technologies that are banned under sanctions. But Smith said the geology of the Bazhenov might not be the biggest challenge; instead, it may be what’s above the surface. “West Siberia is the world’s largest swamp,” he said. “The average depth is 10 to 20 metres, and it’s a difficult place to operate. (But) below the surface, it’s actually brilliant.” Without a substantial expansion of its reserve base, Russia’s oil and condensate output will not maintain current levels over the next 20 to 30 years, according to a forecast by the Moscow-based Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “This was how Russia had intended to keep up its record-high levels of production over the longer term,” Eurasia Group’s Stromquist said.

Seems a good pick and appears independent. Good to see Conlin stay as a director, he did well to reverse much of the chaos left by Reed et al.

ARIC CUNNINGHAM CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Skills and experience: Mr Cunningham was appointed Chief Executive Officer in January 2017. Mr Cunningham spent 25 years with BP in various management and operational positions, including Director of Reservoir Management at TNK-BP Russia. In 2008, he moved out of “big oil” into a smaller company entrepreneurial environment to join Vostok Energy as the Chief Operating Officer and later Astrakhan Oil Corporation as Chief Executive Officer. Following 3 years with AOC, Mr. Cunningham was approached to be the Chief Executive & Member of Board of Directors for MND Group N.V. which included responsibility for E&P, UGS, Drilling and Services, and Gas Trading/Retail business segments in Czech Republic, Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and Georgia. He has had leadership exposure across all elements of the upstream value chain, exploration, reservoir engineering, production optimisation, development and M&A/business development. Mr Cunningham graduated from the University of California in 1983 with an MS degree in Geology and holds an MBA from the University of Aberdeen, Scotland. Conlin has become a director

150p appears to be the market apppetite for EXI. A rough projection for 2017 with an average $55 oil price and no increase in production, would produce a P/E of 3 (f you minus £100 million cash reserves from current market cap). This is compared to a Russian average of 8 or 400p. It is amazing what the absence of corporate governance and lack of FSA action can do to a share price.

I don't. With such a small market capitalisation why should such large amounts of shares be given to people for carrying out the basic functions of their job. The main factors - oil price , taxation, sanctions and exchange rate are out of their hands. They shouldn't get any bonus relating to things they do not influence. They need a partner to develop the assets - ok - find one, but you don't need a bonus for that. Once the assets are in development THEN things needs to be 'managed' well, then you can crack open the share bonus.

This isn't a literal account of what will happen, but a simplification that represents what will result i.e very little

In the accounts they will write down a previous loss which reduces (on paper) the capital value of the company. However, they are simultaneously reducing the number of shares. It is book keeping in a respect. On the books the capital value of the company is reduced but each share will have 'more value'. It won't affect small shareholders in any meaningful way. It is an attempt to reduce spreads and rationalise the accounts. It is a very insignificant part of the RNS and certainly won't affect the SP in any drastic way.

Yep, smart management but shareholders with not so smart buy-in prices. Plenty of opportunity to buy sub two pence over the last 18 months - a smart price to buy in at. Current management is doing everything right to bring a good return for those who took advantage of this value price

Positive RNS: 1) Tax manoeuvre will likely to have a net positive effect. This has derisked the company because a net tax increase looked possible 2) Drilling programme - nothing new 3) Share consolidation - smart move, the spread allowed people to buy below or at 2 pence. Will have limited effect though if you look at volumes/interest in share 5) Oil price - current price makes serious drilling in 2018 possible according to management risk projections This might put a floor on share price. Smart management as per usual for UEN, with typically conservative statements