Member Info for Gambier

This was my understanding of the Talvivaara company announcements. I could well be wrong.

Somebody is willing to to take the top end of the spread to get large quantities. Everyday for the last three days the book is being taken apart from what's looks to be a single buyer. Whoever it is, is even managing to narrow the spread. Interesting.

If you read all the news on the Terrafame website it can be distilled down to this: 1) Bioleaching method is working better than expected and that maximum production will be achieved in 2019, with very rapid growth in the next 18 months followed by a slower increase until peak in 2019. 2) water problems have been dealt with and waste discharge is now well below maximum allowed levels 3) The company is innovating so at to sell by-products of the process at very high profit 4) If nickel and zinc prices achieve forecasted numbers the Terrafame becomes 'very profitable' What is unknown is how the market will value Terrafame once it lists on the Finnish market. Once the dilution is established and the market has had a few months to trade the shares we should know. So come February we should have a reasonably clear picture of how the market values the company.

Something has been emerging six times a year for the last four years, but has never emerged. Somebody is buying a few grands worth of shares and is willing to pay top end of the spread to get them - that is not an emergence of anything.

Is it? There a plenty of XEL type companies in existence today which have people piling money into them. Try having a reasoned and evidenced conversation with people who post on the boards of those shares. See what vitriolic abuse you get. As with Afren and GKP, just go back to posts from a few years ago and see the aggressive attacks towards anybody who offered an alternative opinion. Small investors oughht to be humble and exchange opposing ideas in order to test their own ideas to destruction. They need to exchange factual information regardless of its positive or negative conclusions. It never happens and it never will, that is why statistically most small investors lose money in the long run. People don't bother shutting gates and they move on and open more.

Lessons to be learned: 1) Dont invest in oil and gas companies that do not have strong and reliable cash flows 2) Don't invest in oil and gas companies with high Net Debt to EBITDA ratios. 3) Don't invest in oil and gas companies that are not conservative in their forecasts 4) Don't abuse and shout down people who offer reasoned critiscm of your own position 5) Dont buy in a high oil price era, wait until there is blood on the streets Anybody investing in any oil company with significant debts and no cash flows is playing an extremely high risk game and should expect to lose everything.

Yes, he is an interim CEO. The company is a shell company that doesn't need a full time CEO, just somebody to act as caretaker. That is why I am baffled by anybody who pays anything over two pence for this share, it is as if people don't understand the nature of the company.

To be fair the RNS ought to contain doubt - most of UEN reserves are of unknown quality or depleted of quality. This is total punt on a new discovery and so buyers should demand a below 2 pence price. The rampers on here try and talk up the company on the most insignificant of news. Only this year an RNS containing bad news was misunderstood as good news by the cabal of rampers which led to a massive spike of buys at over 3 pence only for it to collapse to 1.5 pence very shortly afterwards.

Drilling results will come late 2017/ beginning of 2018 so not exactly 20 years, but certainly not six months. A bizarre days trading when you consider todays total volume could have been bought for around two pence spread over a couple of weeks. I guess if you happy paying over three pence so you can buy in one day fair enough, but makes no real sense.

It is how I read the companies announcement, but as always with these things very often you misunderstand the meaning. Maybe somebody else can confirm?

Anything under two pence would seem a reasonably defensive position to take. Current production and cash flows offer protection at a below £5 million market cap. With such poor liquidity, anything that would objectively add value (i.e MET exemption/highly productive drill) could double the SP within a few days. Somebody wants more than ten grands worth today and they are willing to pay 50% over the most recent prices.

Unfortunately the progressive nature of MET means UEN does not hugely benefit from increases in oil price. What UEN needs is a MET exemption based on its geology. Trying to value UEN on its 2P reserves is of no particular use. Most of those reserves have no seismic or exploratory drilling to underwrite their quality. The recent acquisitions have created some synergies which are impressive, but they are only going to further strengthen cash flow.

SP Angel specialise in pointing out the obvious. Their latest insight is the company has no direction. Erm yes, three years without a single company announcement related to business strategy and opex/capex tends to be considered lacking in direction. The only insightful news we will get will be from the FSA when they finally get round to investigating Mr Khotin.

Assuming a full uptake by creditors, non-creditor share holders will hold shares worth approx 6 pence from what I understand. What happens to the SP once they become tradable again is anybody's guess. Nickel price is at multiyear lows whereas zinc is at multiyear highs. All will be revealed throughout Jan 2017 I guess.

The Moscow Post has a very interesting lead article on Mr Khotin this evening. I wonder if the FSA bothers to read Russian newspapers?

The change is production is neglible, well within normal non-drilling related monthly production changes. Production rates are not even the issue right now. It is the very obvious fraudulent behaviour of one particular shareholder who had absolute control over the companies activities. Nothing that isn't independently audited can be trusted, whether that be production rates or the depositing of the companies cash reserves. This company does not need to be scrutinised by analysts but by the FCA. This is a case of obvious fraud.

In my opinion there is no good reason to believe UEN is a buy-out target. It's reserves are either very underdeveloped or very old and declining. I think cash flows can be grown to cover debt quite comfortably. For me this is a total punt on the discovery of a new prolific area. They have purchased some interesting assets with drill results coming late 2017/early 2018. Anything under £5 million market cap looks ok buy if you look at some blunt metrics.

Until production in West Siberia fields doubles to say 25k barrels per day, they will not be able to make use of economy of scale to increase net back per barrel. With current 2p reserves they ought to be doing just over 30k per day with WS in late 20s per day and TP over 6/7 per day. Interesting they speak to an external group rather than address the shareholders

Concerning Russia's offers to join OPEC in curbing output, a suggestion balked at by some large producers, Margelov said he was confident Exillon and others like it would be unaffected, not least due to questions of implementation. "I don't think someone would ever want to freeze the production of a small and independent producer like Exillon -- they don't have any mechanism to do this. I don't think [the government] would like to change taxation right now because people are worried about this," he said. The government "would take measures that would apply to governmental companies like Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, because it's easier." As for the Russian upstream market, Margelov said asset holders currently tended to have an inflated view of the value of their assets, but were likely to modify this as financial stresses on the sector increase. If past cycles are anything to go by, some upstream assets may end up in the hands of banks, which would then want to offload them, he added. "There are some assets that are intended to be sold, but their owners still believe the oil price is around $100/b and expect too much. It takes time for asset owners to understand what the fair price is. Now we will see that some companies will not be able to pay their debts to commercial banks and maybe in some years we will see that some banks got some nice assets just as security... Then of course they would like to sell them," Margelov said. "In two or three years we will see a wave of interesting M&A transactions in Russia."

As a company, "we are in a very strong position and we have every chance to develop our production and sometime maybe in future to acquire new assets," he added. Exillon is currently producing around 15,000 b/d of light, low-sulfur oil, most of it from the Kayumovskoe and Lumutinskoe fields in West Siberia, plus some in the Timan Pechora basin in Russia's far north. It plans a new drilling program in the first half of next year aimed at reviving its declining output. The reboot of the company follows a change of ownership in 2013 in which property investors Alexei Khotin and Alexander Klyachin took the place of Kazakh businessman Maksat Arip as its largest shareholders. Margelov said Exillon had slashed its drilling expenditure at the time of the oil price downturn in 2014, but had now accumulated $100 million of cash, enabling it to take advantage of much-reduced prices in the supply chain and associated rig availability. This is likely to mean horizontal drilling, but from existing wells. Exillon's core West Siberian fields benefit from a tax exemption applicable to challenging geologies, but its estimated lifting costs last year were just $3.3/b and it benefits from easy access to transport infrastructure. The company has avoided entering long-term sales contracts, preferring to be flexible on how it sells its oil, which has an API gravity of around 41 and sulfur content of just 2.2% for the west Siberian fields. The majority of its revenue was from domestic sales last year and it has estimated oil reserves of 500 million barrels. In terms of costs, Margelov said the tendency of larger companies to carry out more drilling in-house and reduce their use of service companies was a boon for upstream independents. "Prices for drilling services in Russia are now really low. There are a lot of companies that have their drill rigs standing with no bidders -- they're very flexible, both on pricing and in terms of payment."