The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/interview-new-exillon-energy-chief-sees-robust-26604702 Interview: New Exillon Energy chief sees robust future for Russian independent sector London (Platts)--24 Nov 2016 The head of Russia's Exillon Energy, Dmitry Margelov, has predicted a secure future for the country's independent upstream sector, but says a surge of merger and acquisition activity could be on the cards in the next two to three years. In an interview, Margelov, who became chief executive of the London-listed company in March, said he saw little threat to the independent sector from the centralizing tendencies seen in Russia's oil industry in recent years. He also played down the significance of any effort by Moscow to curb oil output in collaboration with OPEC, saying the burden of such a move would probably fall on large companies. "I think our government is interested in having independent producers," Margelov said. "For now I don't see any political risks for our company." "Yes, there is a process of centralization, but from my point of view this pretty strange and unpredictable situation with Bashneft is not a sign that now all assets will go to Rosneft," he said, referring to state-controlled Rosneft's recent acquisition of Bashneft, a deal that led to bribery charges against a government minister.
As a company, "we are in a very strong position and we have every chance to develop our production and sometime maybe in future to acquire new assets," he added. Exillon is currently producing around 15,000 b/d of light, low-sulfur oil, most of it from the Kayumovskoe and Lumutinskoe fields in West Siberia, plus some in the Timan Pechora basin in Russia's far north. It plans a new drilling program in the first half of next year aimed at reviving its declining output. The reboot of the company follows a change of ownership in 2013 in which property investors Alexei Khotin and Alexander Klyachin took the place of Kazakh businessman Maksat Arip as its largest shareholders. Margelov said Exillon had slashed its drilling expenditure at the time of the oil price downturn in 2014, but had now accumulated $100 million of cash, enabling it to take advantage of much-reduced prices in the supply chain and associated rig availability. This is likely to mean horizontal drilling, but from existing wells. Exillon's core West Siberian fields benefit from a tax exemption applicable to challenging geologies, but its estimated lifting costs last year were just $3.3/b and it benefits from easy access to transport infrastructure. The company has avoided entering long-term sales contracts, preferring to be flexible on how it sells its oil, which has an API gravity of around 41 and sulfur content of just 2.2% for the west Siberian fields. The majority of its revenue was from domestic sales last year and it has estimated oil reserves of 500 million barrels. In terms of costs, Margelov said the tendency of larger companies to carry out more drilling in-house and reduce their use of service companies was a boon for upstream independents. "Prices for drilling services in Russia are now really low. There are a lot of companies that have their drill rigs standing with no bidders -- they're very flexible, both on pricing and in terms of payment."
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/interview-new-exillon-energy-chief-sees-robust-26604702 Interview: New Exillon Energy chief sees robust future for Russian independent sector London (Platts)--24 Nov 2016 The head of Russia's Exillon Energy, Dmitry Margelov, has predicted a secure future for the country's independent upstream sector, but says a surge of merger and acquisition activity could be on the cards in the next two to three years. In an interview, Margelov, who became chief executive of the London-listed company in March, said he saw little threat to the independent sector from the centralizing tendencies seen in Russia's oil industry in recent years. He also played down the significance of any effort by Moscow to curb oil output in collaboration with OPEC, saying the burden of such a move would probably fall on large companies. "I think our government is interested in having independent producers," Margelov said. "For now I don't see any political risks for our company." "Yes, there is a process of centralization, but from my point of view this pretty strange and unpredictable situation with Bashneft is not a sign that now all assets will go to Rosneft," he said, referring to state-controlled Rosneft's recent acquisition of Bashneft, a deal that led to bribery charges against a government minister.
I have posted virtually nothing related to EXI share price predictions. Nearly every single post has been sharing of information relating to the companies (opaque) activities. Whether that correlates with the share price movement has not been my concern. Try looking at the context of my posts and that might make some sense to you. I personally couldn't give a sh*t about your buy and sell points.
Couple of points to think about: 1) Taxation: Russia is about introduce a new tax system for oil and gas, some suggesting it will be profit based as opposed to the current production based system. How this will affect UEN who has upstream and downstream tax to pay I can't work out. Mr Shrager has stated that much of what UEN wants to do is not viable under the current tax system. 2) Oil Price: nobody knows what will happen here. One things seems obvious is that American tight oil will put a cap on the upper price. 3) Drilling: all the wells are backloaded so you will be looking at late 2017/early 2018 before you will see results. So the nearest piece of news that could affect share price will be the announcement by the Russian government regarding changes to taxation (within the next 6 months?). The next after that will be the drilling of the RK oil well (8 to 12 months time?). Then whatever you think will happen to the oil price. My guess is you will be able to buy comfortably under 2 pence for the next 6 months or so. Whatever happens, just know that all the UEN rampers have been wrong on every single thing for the last 3 years. So even if something very good happens to UEN in 2017 they will still have got twenty things wrong just to get one thing right (and then still only getting something right by pure luck). I like UEN management, I like their cash flows and their debt is reasonable. If you get anything under 2 pence and drilling/taxation comes good in 2017 I think you might do very well. Overall looks a decent punt - just ignore the gob sh*tes.
1) Well, who is criminal in the oil and gas industry is decided literally by Putin. There is no way of predicting what will happen to Khotin, we only have the Russian media to rely on. 2) Corruption within AIM/small cap listing is rarely found until after the event. Everything about the arrangement within Exillon Energy is obviously not independent of Khotin and it is blatantly obvious that there are no checks and balances. FSA have done nothing. It will not be until the money disappears, the assets are stripped and somebody is in handcuffs will the FSA do anything. By then it will be too late and the FSA will merely advise shareholders of their position. 3) It can't be nationalised, it was never an official state asset. It could be delisted and disappear into the ether. 500 million barrels of 2P reserves. A $15 per barrel netback even at oil an price below $40. No debt. $120 million dollars cash reserves. Tens of millions of dollars of infrastructure. Somebody is going to get rich and it won't be small shareholders.
Business in Russia is a rat infested criminal swamp. With Exillon Energy being one of the few listed Russian companies on the LSE you would think the FSA would have the time and resources to watch a single company that is very likely to be breaking the rules for maintaining a listing. As with Ferrexpo and JKX, the FSA have completely failed. What small investors do not seem to realise is how incompetent and weak the FSA are, they assume their investments are being carefully looked after. The FSA always arrives after the event, when your money has long disappeared. Not a single news agency has taken up these events either. Ordinary people sat home using Google are more active in the monitoring and the analysis of the behaviour of small cap/AIM listed companies. It is an appalling state of affairs.
Was invested, sold a few months back. According to the Moscow Post this evening, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, who has just been arrested for bribery, is the man who protects Khotin. They claim that bank Ugra deposits have been funnelled into hidden Khotin accounts. They claim he is now on the run as it is likely Ulyukayev will reveal everything in order to save his own skin. This would suggest that Exillons $126 million deposited in Bank Ugra is gone. One might guess that many others things within the company have been stripped. The FSA have done nothing about this share for the last three years when it was obvious it was being run for the benefit of one shareholder. I'm just a simple private trader and I have found all this out. There is an obvious breach of rules regarding related parties, but still nothing is done.
So it will not be until the end of 2017 before any drilling results come through from what is a very limited drilling campaign. Even this being dependent on the tax manoeuvre that will be announced by the Russian government next year. You have to admire the very honest and conservative nature of UEN announcements, very unlike most on the AIM casino. So you if you are interested in a punt on this, you have plenty of time. Sub 2 pence is becoming rapidly becoming the new base trading range.
Alexey Khotin, who owns Gorbushkin Dvor shopping center among other assets, was revealed as a shareholder of Jugra Bank with a 0.48% stake, according to the bank's latest list of affiliates published on Tuesday. The list also includes a Swiss company Radamant Financial that owns 52.4%. As Kommersant daily reported earlier, Alexey Khotin is one of Radamant's beneficiaries. The information was confirmed by RBC's source in Jugra. According to that source, Alexey and Yury Khotin have been controlling Jugra for a while now despite not being included in the list of shareholders. "The only complaint of the regulators was that official documents didn't show beneficiaries, and the bank needed some time to address this issue," the source said. The bank was seeking state aid through OFZ bonds in 2015, but it has not received it yet. According to the source in Jugra, the issue of capital top-up will be resolved by April 1, 2016.This information was confirmed by a source at the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA). Initially, the Bank of Russia (CBR) was waiting for the information on the bank's beneficiaries, says the source in the bank. On December 25, the CBR registered a report on additional share issue worth RUB 6.8bn (approx. USD 89.25m). Swiss company Radamant Financial thus became a majority owner of the bank with a 52.4% stake. According to RBC's source, Alexey and Yury Khotin are beneficiaries of Radamant Financial.
Textbook fraud. One investor is not only in absolute control of the entire company but is also using entire cash reserves of the company to fund and support his other businesses. No doubt Bank Ugra will go under and the cash will totally disappear. I wonder how the other company assets are being stripped.
Follow on from original Moscow Post article: Moreover, there is information according to which lawyers in "for the purpose of legalization of money of shareholders," "Ugra" of the bank (as stated in the document), developed a scheme for "laundering" through transactions between offshore companies means, then who went to the increase of the "Ugra" authorized capital . Managers Hawtin launder money on the sunny Cyprus.
So the whole $126 million cash of Exillon Energy is held in the deposit account of Bank Urga, a bank controlled by Khotin. A bank that is suggested to be a complete scam in which deposits cannot be paid back and the money disappearing into the pockets of you know who. This man controls the company, what else has he done to company assets?Has the reduction in oil production rates been due to natural decline or are they going 'missing'? How on earth have the acccounts been allowed to be signed off? How on earth does the FSA/LSE allow this to be a premium listing ?
From company documents published in the interim results 2016: 21. TRANSACTIONS WITH RELATED PARTIES In considering each possible related party relationship, attention is directed to the substance of the relationship, not merely the legal form. The Group's outstanding balances with related parties attributable to cash and cash equivalents balances: Bank Ugra became a related party to the Company on 25 December 2015, when Mr. Khotin (having a significant influence over Exillon as an ultimate controlling party of Seneal International Agency Ltd, which held a 29.99% interest in the company's share capital), obtained control over the bank. As of 30 June 2016, cash and cash equivalents amounted to $126,563 thousand were held in one financial institution; with the interest receivable of $201 thousand (Note 13) attributable to the deposits at the same financial institution (31 December 2015: cash and cash equivalents of $64,493 thousand and the interest receivable of $45 thousand).
http://www.moscow-post.com/economics/krysinye_bega_xotinyx22641/ Businessmen Yuri and Alexei Hawtin fleeing from Russia because of allegations of corruption? Hawtin declared wanted in connection with the situation in the "Ugra" bank. The bank "Yugra", owned by billionaire Hawtin, in the first quarter of 2016 ranked first among Russian banks in terms of losses. Since January 1, 2013, to January 1, 2016, the assets of "Ugra" of the bank increased by 38 times. On May 1, 2016 Russian bank deposits reached 162 billion rubles. This outflow, according to some experts, due to the fact that the "Ugra" gave out loans one-day firms, affiliated with the owners. Officially, the main cause of loss "was doformirovanie reserves for possible losses on loans and similar debts as a result of reduction in the composition of collateral for the Bank's existing credit notes" (from the bank statement for the I quarter of the 16th). The scheme is simple which has been turned. In March 2013 the bank "Yugra" acquired the owners of the Moscow market "crust" father and son Hawtin. Immediately thereafter, the bank "Yugra" suddenly increased the authorized capital from 170 million to 6.17 billion rubles and held a rebranding. In November 2013, the bank made the decision about the new increase of the authorized capital by additional issue of shares - now with the 6.17 billion to 20.17 billion rubles! Public history of transformation of the bank "Yugra" began with the fact that this little-known bank with the 22-year history of working for the benefit of the oil and gas sector, "Ugra" started to actively attract new customers. Since 2014 the structure of Yuri and Alexei Hawtin have been actively credited in the "Ugra" the bank! Lending to related companies - one of the main claims of the Central Bank to the bank. In addition, the bank's loan portfolio decreased by 23 billion rubles. Perhaps the money ended up in the pockets of Hawtin. The fact that "Yugra" there are financial difficulties, it was clear as early as May 2015, when the bank sharply lowered the rates on deposits. .. The greatest decrease - by 4 pp - occurred on ruble deposits "Piggy + ': Now open the contribution for the year can be under 8%. The bank has contributed more profitable with similar conditions -.. "70 Years of Victory" at 11.8% per annum, the rate on it is reduced by 3.6 pp Experts put forward the theory that the "Ugra" may simply not enough money to pay their depositors. Meanwhile, in 2014 - 2015 years Hawtin through loans bought Four Seasons hotel room in the restored building of the famous hotel "Moscow". Under the same scheme Hawtin controlled retail and office space in the "Moscow" by LLC "shopping gallery", owned by the Cyprus Iolernico Investments. After it became known that Hawtin bought all the
Sorry, what was that metric valuation I asked for?
Never claimed I was waiting for a sub 1 pence, so stop the sh*t talk. So back to this metric valuation, how are you valuing UEN? Of course, you are a ramper, all you can post is blindly positive guess work, never once do you provide a critical metric based evaluation. I will happily post a positive opinion when UEN gets a MET exemption, or if the proposed RK-Oil well flows at say 600+ BPD, or if they publish positive 3D seismic. These would be objective measurements of increased value and not ignorant, ill-informed, emotional nonsense typical of this board.
Ahhhh, the much repeated Urals Energy 'take-over' is being given its biannual airing. One often thinks that Mr Shragers honesty and conservatism is being wasted on this board, as if people would quite enjoy hearing lies and exaggeration from management. At least the current share price demonstrates punters knowledge of the 'Urals Ramp'. Of course, there are those morons who repeatedly make a paper 50% loss within days of their 'buy on the Urals spike' stupidity. It is as if those idiots quite enjoy overpaying for what are quite questionable reserves. Never mind, being completely wrong on every single call on this share has never stopped people. Indeed, when you have been wrong ten times, what does it matter when you make it the eleventh?
He can't do anything about the two major shareholders who have complete control over the company running production in the ground. Since they took over daily production has fallen by a third and within 6 months it may have halved.
Cautious in the short and medium term in the hope of longterm success - more honesty from Mr Shrager. Absolutely no reason to leave money in this right now when you could easily buy in when oil conditions begin to improve.