Member Info for Gambier

My view - delists without any big movement in SP. As was pointed out in the company documentation, the claimed reason for delist is access to desperately needed funds which are not available through a listing (as the market is not interested). Once a Ltd company, equity (based on 100 million 2P reserves and $20 netback) will be exchanged for debt relief. They owe $300 million, so one can imagine how much of the companywill have to be handed over. It keeps the company solvent at least.

Yes, be mindful of the sensitivities of people who hold purely subjective opinions and who avoid any objective discussion. Debt + net back + reserves + daily production = what valuation to major shareholders in a LTD company in Russia? Other than emotion, has anybody got any empirical contributions to make?

Yep, bought in a few years ago and sold with a 30% profit. Looked again this year, still like the asset, great infrastructure, huge cash reserve and huge reserves. A company that has a market cap of £100 million that could in theory have an annual 2017 net profit of £100 million with £100 million in the bank looks great on paper. So bought in again at 90 ish and 70 ish pence on the hope that FTSE regulations prevent anything seriously corrupt happening, tempted to go in with some big buys but not got the stomach for it.

Sounds good plan. I don't see this moving as there isnt any news due until August (6 month statement). Probably drift between 60 to 70 range, if you can make money between that movement, do it. I don't see a big downside from here, so don't see you getting caught out.

I couldn't give a monkeys if people take note of my posts or not. Unlike you, I don't take myself that seriously that I worry about any potential response. If you are long on this that's fine, if you are right and make money that's great. If I'm right and this is game over, so be it. I won't gloat or feel incompetent on either side of opinion divide. I have yet to hear a single objective evidence based response to anything I have said other than I'm a troll. Nobody will discuss metrics or major shareholder issues, just random beliefs about how on the final day it goes to 10p. You can post positive things every hour of the day, I couldn't care less.

Surely the greatest waste of time is to respond to something you know to be a waste of time? To respond to a question pertaining to you wasting your time responding to something that is a waste of time is even a greater waste of time? You surely further waste your time thinking about whether you have wasted your time discussing whether you wasted your time discussing whether you wasted your time?

I want to see what they do with over £100 million in the bank by the end of 2016. If they drill with an average of 300 bpd that should provide a 40% increase in ESW production and the six wells at TP might help maintain current production levels in that area. So making $100 million dollars last year (60 + 30 (met owed) + 10 (one off cost of jet) might lead (assuming hardly any drilling in 2017 and $50 dollar oil price) to $150 million net annual profit. What do they do with all that money? Load the company with new assets that Mr Khotin would like? I doubt shareholders will get a taste of it.

Why are you bothered? I couldn't care less what you post.

Some big volumes everyday for last two weeks, not sure why. Who knows what to do with this share. No doubt something nefarious is happening behind the scenes.

Thank you for your concern, but if anybody is influenced to buy or sell according to a post on an LSE BB then they deserve to lose money.

is this much promoted tidy up of the free float for 10p?

Somebody will benefit in a way that is not clear to small investors. It is the extent to which small shareholders get shafted that is the real question. My bet, it being Russia, small investors like myself will get wiped out by hook or by crook.

I agree, unless they see their RPO investment as damage limitation, I would be surprised that they were not buying at 0.8p. Given how many people might have already bailed out, maybe the free float now is only a few percent. I can't read this beyond knowing RPO debt situation is awful and the MET relief only really comes into play at high oil prices. If they could get to 10,000 bpd at a net back of say $40 per barrel, then that debt could be serviced, but that would require a $100 oil price. Gordeev bought in when oil price was nearly $100 and he paid $170 million for 25% (70ish pence) when net backs would have been $40 per barrel, you can understand why he bought in. Now that oil will stay at price range that will give maximum $20 per barrel netback, what does he value the company at? Reserves were estimated at over a billion barrels when he bought in, now they are 100 million barrels. Was it obvious to him that the reserves were obviously nonsense or has this reduction come as a shock. What does he value 100 million barrels 2P, with net back $20 per barrel,a $300 million debt and a potential year end production rate of 10,000 bpd? Does he see his investment as a disaster or had he factored much of this in? Does it he want more shares?

Yes but this is a specific circumstance - what will it be worth to existing major shareholders of a LTD company. If we had some sort of metric to estimate the value of the reserves to the current major shareholders then maybe small shareholders would feel less distressed. Maybe they will hoover up any quantity at 10p+ post delisting maybe you will not be able to give them away.

Not sure of the exact mechanism but I think it is based of the idea that you offer a quantity and price and then it is matched up by the operator. I am not sure whether you are able to see other peoples historic transactions or not. Again apart from the current major shareholders who is going to buy? And what price do you think current holders are willing to pay? Do they see their current holdings as a disaster and want no more shares? Or are they keen at the ten pence range?

4p 'Should' be the offer , that is 4p is fair in the sense morally justifiable. Not quite a metric valuation is it? It was oversubscribed at 10p share offer during a period when oil prices had fallen. Gordeev paid I think 65p per share for his 25%. Surely 10p would therefore be 'fair' which would be £300 million if you include the debt? If I was offered 4p I would take it, but will have to see what they do when they delist, maybe they will offer me f*ck all as per Russian tradition.

Logical? Clear? You wouldn't have a metric valuation by any chance ?

So you are unable to provide a metric based valuation , just that RPO has been a certain price at one point in time and so by extrapolation it could be that price now.

I asked for an objective valuation not a statement of previous prices. What are your metric valuations? How do you think the $300 million debt will paid back whilst simultaneously paying for capex/opex to just maintain production rates?

So the 'buy out' didn't happen and can't. This leaves a random belief that on the last day of trading 10p plus will be offered. Now beyond that obvious nonsense has anybody got any estimations of the value of RPO. The delisting info claims that the 4p market cap did not represent the true value of the company. So with a net back of $19 per barrel, a claim for 10,000 bpd by year-end, $300 million debt and 100 million barrels 2p reserves, what is this 'fair' valuation? Using the given data, which metrics would give a > 10p share price?