Member Info for Gambier

There is good reason to take profit at these prices - UEN SP movements are incredibly volatile and agresssive - this could be 2 pence in no time. However, 2017/2018 is the time in which UEN will move into full development. If one assumes they find a partner to develop the assets and the drills at the end of this year are impressive, then you could be looking at 15 pence. My opinion, for what it is worth, is to take profit if your average is not much below the current SP and get out. If you have a sub 2 pence average the. you have a more defensive position if this starts moving aggressively down.

Yes, there are many interesting articles. There isn't any evidence that the Khotins actually exist, or if they do, that they are anything other than employed stooges who act as cover for the real owner. Exillon management are interconnected to the those who hold the majors shareholding, some suggesting one of those in a senior position is actually the real major shareholder themselves. The fact that Urga bank holds all the companies cash and is in itself a fraud (owned by Khotin) , one has to wonder what on earth the FSA are doing. This is a slam dunk fraud case. There is no corporate governance and no independent oversight. How this is allowed to even have a premium listing is beyond me.

I can refer you to the Moscow Post. Open in google chrome so you can translate articles into English. It scans documents into articles demonstrating evidence for their claims. Interestingly, there is not a single picture of Khotin and nobody has ever met him. This is strange for one of the supposed richest men in Russia, many suggest he doesn't actually exist. His bank (which exillon holds its entire cash holdings) is in serious trouble , making catastrophic losses. The articles explain how the scam is probably operating.

Production not moved from December, so no sign of the promised drilling campaign. Interesting week of Khotin articles, including one that suggests Khotin is merely a front for a well known Belarusian politician. SP drops precipitously.

The dip was profit taking, which without news, is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. I suspect the continued demand is from those who want a position in Russian assets, as the RNS suggests.

Depends on your average. If you are getting your money back at this SP, you might be well to do that. If drilling produces poor results , this will plummet, but if you have a sub 2 average you will at least not break the golden rule - don't lose money! If sanctions come off and oil price is sustained, I can see a lot of western investment piling into Russian oil projects and this will produce much higher P/E ratios

Noticed Bank Ugra (Khotin controlled bank) is even more trouble with Russian banking authorities. Losing a credit licence because of undisclosed irregularities. Stories across the Russian media that the bank is a total (Khotin Led) fraud. It is a shame that Khotin has put the whole EXI cash reserves into his own dodgy bank. Looks like another Ferrexpo situation where the company loses all its cash reserves in a dissolved bank owned by the major shareholder. Appalling failure in corporate governece and further evidence of a toothless FSA.

If the rise continues this week, you would have reason to suppose that something significant is happening behind the scenes.

Trading as if there are a small number of buyers buying large amount against a larger number of sellers selling small amounts. Individual taking a large position vs investors taking profit ?

Russia is a very low breakeven cost area. Oil companies now want out of high cost African, Asian or offshore areas and want in on the low cost US tight oil areas and Russian fields. Removal of sanctions will lead to an inflow of capital and give companies confidence to invest in Russia. Maybe this movement is positioning for what many believe will be a Russian upsurge.

Good post. Nothing to do with oil price as MET negates most of the benefit. Russian oil stocks have all risen with possibility of sanction removal so that has played its part. UEN specific factors might be the mentioning of a development parter in the RNS and the movement to large scale development of the assets. There is a major shareholder who I imagine calls the shots. So any takeover would have to go through him. This is Russia so the most strange things are possible. Very hard to call this one. I'm tempted to bail out and take profit and accept this could go further.

Buy side is large four figures that keeps pushing price above bid. Totally bizarre trading, about time management made a statement saying they don't know of any reason for recent jump, which you can choose to believe or not.

Book was cleared yesterday of quite a few big sells. L2 looks good to 6p if anybody wants to buy.

I put a value of 2p/ev of £15 million. I don't think you can place any value on the new independent acreage until we have a drill. Recent acquisition brought very strong synergies for historic assets and that is where I get £15 million on blunt metrics. I doubt the main shareholder would allow a £15 million offer though.

Maybe IC could have brought out an article beginning 2016 when EXI was at 65p and was in the same position as it now. Many of us bought then without an error riddled IC prompt. Just saying.

By the way , L2 looks good this morning if anybody wants to offload, plenty of appetite for UEN shares.

What has happened to the SP in the last few weeks was unpredictable as it is not based on news. If I sell now I called it right for the wrong reasons - pure chance. I bought at below 2p because with the assets, infrastructure, cash flows and management, I thought that represented a defensive position that would minimise losses but leave a possible multibag with drilling success. A highly sceptical mentality on shares you are interested in helps get you a better price. Maybe this is about to be taken over and I make a packet, but that would be a lot of good fortune, not skilful investing. I want to see objectively value adding news, if I get there by luck instead, so be it.

That's not quite what the article recommended though was it. And if you happened to read the article a week later you would be down. Chance is not a particularly reliable investment strategy really.

With respect, you would do well to read what I have actually posted about this share. I have happily highlighted the strengths of UEN but argued about a fair (defensive) price to buy in at (sub two pence). I have been able to achieve a sub two average by continuously buying around those levels for 18 months. So I have skin in this game. My negativity has been absolutely justified. There has been multiple spikes over the last two years that have collapsed within days (each time very tenuous news being ramped by the UEN mob). Why should I be positive? Just because I have doubled my money? I don't have a clue why this has doubled - that is the troubling thing. If we get two very good drill results later this year then I will be positive. If we indentify new geological targets from seismic I will be positive. If we get a JV partner to develop the assets I will be positive. If sanctions are removed I will be positive. If we get MET exemption I will be positive. If the ruble/dollar fx improves I will be positive. If liquidity improves and spreads narrow I will be positive. Until any of these things happen I will be very cautiously optimistic. If others had the same attitude they wouldn't have such awful averages. What is it that you are so positive about?

Book looks difficult, a move to 5 would probably give a 4.5 to 5. Hardly any big quantities up for offer. From what I can see this is the same person buying all these chunks , there is no other support upwards apart from a buyer who keeps looking to take four figures. My guess is a small fund wanting exposure to Russia. If there was any good news to come out then maybe that would bring multiple buyers in and help liquidity, >5p would then be easy.