Member Info for Gambier

What is the projected net profit for 2018? What is the �34 million figure? There are oil companies listed on LSE with similar market caps that have far superior financials. Exillon Energy, market cap �130 million, is projected to have profit of �70 million for 2018 with no debt, 500 million barrels 2P and infastructure paid for and completed. If you are going to invest in oil and gas, why would you pick RKH? It wouldn�t even make a top ten listed on the LSE.

Low risk oil fields mainly. Big oil spending on US tight oil is huge, the actual amount spent on offshore is minuscule compared to seven years ago. Profits for many big oil companies have not been impressive even with the increase in oil price. In any case Premier is not big oil, it is a incompetent debt ridden mid-size and is the last company in the world that should be thinking of developing a totally new offshore field where infrastructure is totally absent. I can�t see how anybody sees RKH as investable, I really can�t.

It is quite obvious why RKH and PMO have gone down - oil price. None of the big producing companies want to get caught up in a large risky field development only to see oil price tank. The 2010 to 2013 period was a colossal oil development bubble, anybody ascribing value according to those historical prices have lost and will continue to lose money. Why is Russia and Saudia Arabia going to sit back with incredibly low costs and allow non-opec to crazy on development? The moment they see significant development spending on offshore and/or other higher cost fields they will unleash millions of barrels onto the market. US tight oil is now a low cost swing producer which can switch on and off within weeks, they can do as they please. I don�t see Falkands being produced because I�m an oil bear. To believe it will be produced you must be a huge oil bull, only sustained $70 plus oil price will see return of the old days of non-opec oil development.

He is just offering an alternative opinion. People may think he is talking nonsense, but it is interesting that when utter nonsense that happens to be positive is posted, nobody has a problem with it. I have read most ridiculous conspiratorial bullsh*t on here, but because it was positive it was given a free pass. In any case, he is quite correct - the longer this goes on the greater the cash burn and without revenue that is a serious problem. It certainly isn’t critical right now, but a cash call has to be something that’s needs to be considered. Also nobody has to be invested in a share to make their contribution ‘legitimate’. Ownership of a share and/or positive views of a share doesn’t make you opinion anymore valid nor does it give you anymore right to post. If somebody else’s opinion on a share board manages to trigger you, then you need to learn to control your emotions. Obviously some people are not as confident about this share as they claim.

Of course KB will tell everybody that he thinks we will get a positive decision, he has to say that. What matters is the reasoning behind any claim. His reasoning is based on the legal requirements for the concession and the governments claim that they will do this by the book. We have met the requirements set out in law, if it is done to law, we get the concession. The risk is that the government use a very perverse interpertation of the law to ignore a very small mining company listed on the AIM. Past behaviour opens this up as a real possibility. We will find out in the near future.

Dropping 5% each week with a solid trend downwards. Next stop 70s.

Production levels continue to drop, now below 10,000bpd. Four years of falling oil production from 20,00bpd as management allow old wells to deplete. Bank Ugra appeals have been rejected, Moscow Post claim the final investigation will reveal Khotin bought nearly 60% of EXI share issue using money lent to himself from his fraudulent bank and Kylachin as a cover partner. They also claim Putin et al want oil assets as compensation. Goodbye Mr Khotin.

You have just regurgitated RNS information. Using the net-back you have listed how do you value UEN?

I’m not sure you fully understand. I’ve already tripled my money in UEN on a short holding time, so unlike most people invested in UEN, I have made good profit in short time. By getting out I have managed to put that money into a few shares that although have not done brilliantly, have generated much greater returns than UEN over the last six months or so. Noticed you still haven’t answered my question.

I don�t think you understand what psychotic actually means. When you know somebody is pretending to know the answer to a question , the smart thing to do is to keep asking that question. The ludicrous and desperate excuses as to why they can�t give the answer proves your point - they don�t know what they are talking about. Anybody reading this will see a collection of know-nothings who are simply basing their opinions on historic share prices. In their mind the current market cap FEELS low for a company that produces oil. They have spasms of random theories of how daily price movements indicate a takeover (even when it is random movement) or how a seemingly positive RNS indicates a new valuation (even when it is repeating previous announcements). You can value UEN reserves through 2P/EV, but your will need 2017/2018 2P EV valuations of other Russian oil companies and of course understand in detail the nature of UEN 2P reserves. You can value UEN earnings through P/E, but you will need 2017/18 P/E ratios of other Russian oil companies and understand in detail the netback/EBITDA per barrel for UEN production (so lifting costs, production cost, drilling costs, tax environment etc). Even then, you need to consider the demand for small oil and gas companies in the current market place, taking into account current sanctions, likely buyers etc. Petroneft and Exillon Energy are two uk listed comparators, one assumes these people will have studied both companies in detail to make such comparative analysis. If there is such good value here, surely it would be wise as a current investor to reveal the metric analysis, this would encourage other small private investors (who drive the UEN share price) to buy here. Of course, they can�t, their opinion is driven by old prices and random guess work. The more they post, the more they paint UEN as a punters favourite and by extension - a pile of crap. This is unfortunate as UEN some solid strengths. Most of the support on this board comes from those with no knowledge of the company nor the written skills to express anything intelligently, fortunately the board communicate frequently and with clarity.

I think you are trying to deflect and avoid a very simple question. Obviously I know you can’t answer it.

These boards are for the discussion of the value of specific shares. If you come onto a board with outlandish and baseless valuations then it is reasonable to expect somebody to question your post. If after being questioned about the most basic of valuation metrics, you not able to support any of your claims, then it is perfectly reasonable to suspect your post of being nothing more than a baseless ramp. I have already tripled my money here, providing posts that gave empirical reasons for my buy-in point and sell point (that proved to be correct). If somebody can provide evidence based reasons for why this share currently offers excellent value I will be very happy to hear it. If the said metric valuation can be supported by evidence I will happily consider buying in. So based on metrics, why does this share currently represent value?

You are guessing based on old prices, that’s ok, lots of small investors do that. But to pretend that you have made metric calculations but are not willing to reveal them is a little embarrassing.

You are just stating production figures and the latest debt balance, that isn’t a valuation. What metrics are you using to reach £20 million? What is your 2P/EV calculation? What is the P/E ratio that you are targeting? Which other Russian oil and gas producers are you using as comparators?

So you are not capable of providing an answer, that’s fine, that was my suspicion. But don’t pretend that you have an answer but you just couldnt be bothered providing it, it is embarrassing to hear such a school yard response.

So the SP is suppressed? Well what is the suppression point? At what SP would UEN not be suppressed? What valuation methodology have you used to determine all this? Simple question.

How do you know it is cheap? Cheap means less than what it ought to be worth, so what ought this be worth? Presumably, as this ‘cheap’ it should be worth more than the current valuation, but how much more and how do you calculate that? I think I have asked this question around ten times, never once has it been answered. I have a suspicion some people are basing their valuation purely on historic prices - its market cap is currently lower than it used to be therefore it must represent good value.

Why should this share have a market cap of �35 million? What metrics have you used to determine that very specific market cap?

There is no way of knowing (accuralty) break-evens of an undeveloped oil basin, they could be significantly higher or lower that currently projected. Any investor who says any different is talking nonsense. Please read the many presentations available online by industry insiders who describe the massive unknowns when developing a new oil and gas basin. It is not until you are well into the project that you can truly understand the likely costs. If there had been multiple Falkland oil projects already in production then you could be much more confident, but there isn’t. This is why I’m doubtful whether big companies would be interested in developing these assets under the current climate.

Ive noticed you have avoided both questions! I will be totally honest with you, you do come across as somebody who is a bit thick. It is not just your poor diction, you don�t seem to be able to reason properly either. So once again, how did you arrive at your �150 million valuation.