Member Info for Gambier

Correction, meant to say over a quarter of a billion pounds in the bank (more exactly £270 million)

Net cash position of $141 million. Add this to the $206 million loan and you have a company with quarter of a billion dollars sat in a bank. For an oil company that only spends $2 million per year on drilling its 2P reserves of 500 million barrels, that is a very bizarre financial position to be in.

That aeroplane is the most significant news of the last three years!

$206 million loan facility that is free from any equity backing when you already have well over $100 million in the bank and are generating $6 million per month net profit? What could you possibly be spending that sort of money on? Totalled up they probably have over $330 million available to spend, but on what?

You can make an application to HMRC to have the share written off. HMRC decide whether a company that has been delisted can produce any value - if not - they allow you to write off your investment as a complete loss. This loss therefore equals zero value and not your average price you held before delisting. In this case TALV will definitely be deemed a write off. The form has a code which I can't remember - just look it up on HMRC website.

There is no shareholder value left. Game over.

I have taken my profit here. Oil price has big downside risk with little upside at the moment. Sanctions on Russia are not going to be removed as first thought at the beginning of the year. The few drills that will happen this year will be right at the end of the 2017/beginning 2018.

Current SP reveals quite a lot. End of year results will be published next month. Net cash position of $85 million as of Aug 2017. Generating $3.7 million per month net profit with average $28 per barrel export price. If we assume $50 average oil price since, we can guess a $5 million per month net profit. If we assume they haven't drilled anything (production has fallen), that is 8 months at $5 million including April 2017, producing a cash balance of $125 million. Current $270 million market cap minus cash leaves a company valuation of $145 million. That is P/E of 2.4 and 2P/EV of $0.28. That is for a company without debt and advanced infrastructure. Note the piece of sh*t that is Premier Oil has a P/E of 35 and Tullow Oil 25. It is amazing what the absence of corporate governance can do for a valuation.

I'm not sure what is driving the movement upwards. UEN has large undeveloped reserves, which at the current SP can be considered undervalued. Maybe the company are advertising themselves as for sale and people are positioning. Can't make head nor tail of it all at the moment.

Nothing new but the presentation does lay out the investment case clearly.

Re-entry in RK-oil well in Q1 must be underway now with results in next few months. Other than that news about a joint venture partner to develop the assets.

2P/EV is not $3 barrel in Russia at all, total nonsense. In the last five years, of the companies that have been sold (which has been very few) the going rate was around $2 per 2P barrel reserves and this was when oil was a $100. Furthermore, this figure was based on companies with very developed reserves and infrastructure and significant production rates. You can half that number now. UEN has very underdeveloped acreage and 2P reserves not supported by 3D seismic or extensive production. So that puts any accurate 2P/EV valuation to bed. Stop posting cr*p and encouraging people to buy in high. I've got a very significant amount in here at around 2 pence average, I would like nothing more than see this sky rocket. But to buy now is very risky because you have no drilling news, tax news or JV partnership news to support your position. This can drop to 2 pence within days.

I'm sorry to embarrass you publicly, but the acquisitions have taken UEN from being virtually debt free to having substantial new debt via OJSC Sberbank of Russia - so stop talking complete sh*te. Now would like to tell me what net profit was post FX changes? Can you therefore explain why current profitability is not as a useful metric as it could be for valuations right now? I think you can get away with posting such rubbish because people wil write you off as a bit of a chav who should be humoured.

You can't use the 100 million barrels 2P reserves in 2P/EV valuation because much those of reserves have no 2D/3D seismic or any production performance data. EBITDA or P/E are misleading to use with UEN. The new acreage has been bought with new debt which has to be serviced. The development cost will have to be payed for with new debt, new share issues or JV partner. It won't be until 2018/2019 when asset development is well under way that you can use metrics accurately. At the moment you are buying in on a early stage development. The valuation is therefore the market appetite for such an investment. The market appetite is the credit available within Russia. All these are unknown, as are the reasons for the recent increase in SP.

Why does 2000 bpd equal a £56 million market capitalisation?

Books looks ok for it to sail over 6p

You can't put fair value on assets you have no production data for. The point about UEN is that it is a underdeveloped asset that needs a partner for investment. You need somebody who will come in and take a 25% equity share in return for cash funding. Maybe you can put five pence on the old assets that are currently producing. The value of the new acquisitions will be determined by negoatiation between management and an investment partner. Maybe that is 10p, 15p or 20p, if we had drilling results and 2D seismic then maybe we could guess more accurately.

It doesn't, Talvivarra has nothing to do with the old assets. It is now a shell company in which the shares are confetti.

Because the rise was baseless therefore a fall is a correction back to the 'norm'. If this had been 6p for two years and it dropped to two pence without news then they would issue an RNS based on the fall. UEN is extremely volatile, it is something that comes with ownership of these shares. You should therefore trade accordingly.

There are some buys, but this an overwhelming and continuous fall. People are taking their profit and getting out. The two pence magnet appears to have been switched on again. Without news there is good reason to sell.