Member Info for emptyend

Nor I, in fact.

But I don't think I've ever been invested in a share where the price has gone parabolic without seeing any company-specific news. That strongly indicates to me that the market thinks it has been mispriced.....and the deals from Gilead and Merck today rather suggest to me that the market is right - and that SCLP shares are still mispriced (possibly to a large extent).

I have a similar amount, but with a break-even around 6p. My main concern is that I should have been greedier.....though I'll be pretty happy if/when the share price gets into the £1+ range. There is absolutely no reason why it shouldn't - but they need to step on the gas! It is clear that they are, scientifically-speaking, in the right place.....but that is not good enough - they need to commercialise/monetise before others steal the markets that "should be Scancell's".

"All IMO, but by saying "actually, we could do this all ourselves anyway" plus points 2 & 3, any takeover would have to be huge in value i.e. billion(s) to appease both Scancell, Redmile and Vulpes (basically emptyends point i think)"

Not quite my point. I see Redmile, Vulpes and the other core institutions as protection against a premature raid. So, suppose next year the trials are looking encouraging but are not yet advanced enough to publish the results, the existance of a large blocking stake should be capable of stopping a bid at that time. Equally, though, when the product pipeline has been matured and the commercial opportunities scoped out (which is near impossible for every product line at present) they are positioned to negotiate from a position of strength.

The basic reason I made these points is that some have been carping about the dilutive effect of Redmile coming in - but in fact I see that as the key to unlocking value and turning this into a proper company with strong, multi-product, commercial tie-ups. You'll note that CH was clear that Redmile bring validation, visibility and connections to the party and - as Bermuda and others have pointed out elsewhere - the Redmile investment in Scancell is far below they usual scale of company they invest in......which suggests to me that they see the likely reward as commensurately large. As do I.

Worth noting he was also asked if they were a potential bid target. He didn't opine on that, but he did suggest that they had such potential for organic growth that they could become huge themselves.....
....some may think that is exaggerating - but I don't.

And, in that context, there is very great relevance in the structure of the recent raise because, by adding in a well-connected industry specialist fund, they now have a small group of shareholders with a potential blocking stake - which would probably have the capacity to thwart any opportunistic bidder trying to pick the company up early and cheaply....
.....I rather hope that Redmile are quite greedy about their expectations here ??

Yes - that is also my conclusion. As was said in the presentation, they only need one or two successes....and the trials next year give them four shots at different types of cancers....so if it worked well with 2-3 of those then say hello to a slice of a £150bn market.....

I see every chance this company could be worth 15-20x the present valuation in 3-4 years time. Possibly much more if Covidity provides real advantages?

Yup.....seemed to be a big positive, potentially. I also liked the answer to the Q about why they would be relevant if half a dozen other vaccines were out first : doing something different and, via combining stimulation of two types of T-cell (rather than just one) they think there may be a more effective and more durable response. Of course that is just theory at present, but at least some aspects of the cancer product data back up that concept.

Actually the fact that the government has already placed order for tens of millions of unproven vaccines from 6 different companies shows that isn't quite true.......

Quality if the science certainly plays an essential part in creating the opportunity - but the global focus on vaccines right now is unprecedented and these circumstances will never be repeated. There is a MASSIVE market opportunity and, if the quality of the science can be converted into defensible IP, then there is genuine transformational potential.
I'm not a scientist, so much of the (very important) detail goes well over my head but I do feel strongly that Scancell are occupying "the right space" in terms of their research approach - however, they MUST crack on with this asap, otherwise the risk is that they get outflanked as others copy their lead. This is NOT a matter of scientific purity (important though the science remains)......there is genuine urgency to identify and implement an effective COVID19 vaccination - and being the Betamax of the vaccine world (farting around claiming a "better product" instead of busting a gut to dominate the market) would be a disaster. The risk here is that management is too obsessed by the science and not obsessed enough by monetising it and making a shedload of money ........and that is the role of Redmile and Vulpes - to ensure that management can monetise the company's IP.

Without wishing to split hairs 6.79 isn't really "about the 6p level" let alone "at the 6p level"......but you did well to recognise the implications so quickly - I paid 7.15 when I realised I wouldn't get enough in the OO.

But the point here is the big picture, not the minutiae. I don't set particular store by valuations, because they include a raft of assumptions. IMO the biggest factor here will be sentiment and, whilst Scancell has undoubtedly been slower to deliver than many hoped - hence the slide on the slowness of recent years - I think that fundamentally the company is now in a place where progress may be swifter than expectations, especially given the availability of funding. Redmile hasn't invested to allow the company to let the opportunities presented by the pandemic pass them by........for management, this is a "now or never" opportunity - and they need to be all over it!

As I've said elsewhere, I see vaccine development as a similar sort of high-risk investment as oil exploration....but with one central difference: success would bring a level of market power. If the management here wish to make a mark on history and achieve something of genuine note....and make themselves a small fortune in the process....then the opportunity is now staring them in the face.

I bought three times under 6p and took the OO shares and excess available. I wouldn't say there were "many opportunities to buy under 6p".......certainly there were none once the OO was announced and only a day or two when one could have bought under 5.5p (which I didn't quite.....my low buy was 5.58). I won't be selling for a long while yet.....

Well I bought some more today. And "overpaid" again. However, since my average in barely above 6p, I can't complain.

My thinking is this: there is nothing in the Trinity valuation for Covidity and, now that they are well-funded for a change, nothing (other than the "simple task" of trying to formulate a vaccine to test) to stop them getting at least to a Phase 1 trial. If they do that then, unless Oxford/Imperial look like a magic bullet, the focus will shift to "the next one". With Redmile on board (and with them having taken the plunge into a company much smaller than their usual investments) I suspect there will be quite a bit of US attention being paid to Scancell - and, at that point, anything could happen.

It seems to me that people have fallen asleep on this, after many years of waiting. Once the stale small shareholders are prised out by a rise towards 10p, it may start to get quite difficult to accumulate a stake of any size at all.....

I'm also with Equinity EQi and got c. 32.93% of the excess asked for. Pretty much as I expected, hence topping up more at just over 7 a couple of weeks ago, taking my average to 6.03p. Pretty content with that. Now roll on the newsflow ;-)

CH indeed owned no shares, so was ineligible for the open offer. He will also have been in a close period during the placing and offer process. But perhaps now would be a good time for him to buy? .....

Indeed. Much better not to be cash-strapped!

On the valuation, IIRC there is nothing in that for Covdity as it was deemed to be too early stage. That might change over the next couple of months.....?

Yes that is about right. Under your complete acquisition scenario (and assuming some degree of competive interest, given the various large companies now around in Namibia) what price do you think the 40% holder will accept?

Moving the price shown to the market for small sales won't help get a block. There are fewer than 20 holders of any size, so the way to get shares (especially in August) is to have a broker ring around the share register.....
.....on which basis I would expect a call at some point.
Meanwhile, for those interested in smaller punts, the normal market price remains available.....

I doubt there will be a massive move. It is August after all. And why should there be, when the price will be driven by where it is possible to get blocks of stock (not the more common small punters' lots)?
As for "elsewhere" that is the comparators group, which includes Bahamas. So not relevant here.

The improved chances of getting a partner is a good point, though.....and at current valuations may attract a predator rather than a long-term partner?

Makes a huge amont of sense to me, especially in the light of the comments from Kate Bingham and the implications for Oxford and Scancell. There is no rush.....and, IMO, some important developments are likely shortly.

On the dividend, there is no reason whatsoever to expect 2.75p to be unsustainable. Would have been a fair point with the 5.5p dividend though.

Forecast free cash flow, post results, will be rather interesting for the next 1, 2, 3 years....

Indeed. I note there were a number of posters there....and it wasn't a huge turnout. We probably met without realising.... ;-)