Member Info for emptyend

Just on this post, I note that there are at least five complete misunderstandings or (deliberate) errors in the way someone has misreported the brief comments from 14.43 elsewhere, so one should always go back to the actual source(s) rather than rely on that individual’s rather warped view. I’m away for the next few days so won’t be commenting further

I’d just observe that the last time a buyback programme was initiated was shortly before they started distributing money back to shareholders. IMO dividends will be resumed with the next full year results in Feb 23; I’d be thinking c.3p per share. So buybacks at current levels will have an effective 12% discount built in. And then there is also the possibility (as there was last time) of special dividends in the next 2-3 years (see Ed Storey comments from AGM c2018).
I really don’t mind poor PR at this juncture - that’ll just lower the buyback price.

Yes. I note they have PV support for five-year licence extensions, so those should appear in September. And I note the well on 125 next year, the potential upside of which is yet to be laid out for shareholders.
I do wish they would stop using the vacuous Sarah Lowther for these puff pieces though - the nauseating sycophancy detracts from the message.
Still…..keep buying back cheaply for the next two months, and all will be fine.

In May they said:
“On Block 125, final 3D seismic processed results are EXPECTED in July 2022. FOLLOWING THIS the Group will proceed to seismic mapping to identify prospects”

Ten days ago they said “Final 3D processing is well underway”

All consistent.

Bear in mind that the processing is all in the hands of a contractor, not the company - so expected timings are not within company control.

It is therefore mystifying why certain people have a stopwatch out, ready to abuse management again, especially as the RNS event will be prospect identification, not receipt of the processed data. For all we know, there may have been no further slippage and they may already have the data…..but the key point is that it REALLY doesn’t matter a jot. It is yet another molehill being embellished into a mountain.

The only thing I’m interested in is the prospect identification on 125.

I’ll just put an explanatory note here, for the benefit of certain “challenged” people:
Early 2022 = By the end of April
Mid 2022 = May to end of August
Late 2022 = Sept to Dec

Alternatively:
First half 2022 = By the end of June
Second half of 2022 = July to December

or
Q1 = by the end of March
Q2 = April to June
Q3 = July to September
Q4 = October to December

This is simply dividing the 12 months into 2 or 3 or 4 parts.

It seems that certain deranged people find this concept a bit tricky for them. Amazingly…but they do ??

Also please note the date of an event is not the same as the date of an announcement. Certain people seem to struggle with that too (yes….amazing isn’t it! ??)

My apologies to the 99.5% of readers who already knew this! ??

So……in fact they bought back only 75,000 shares……very interesting, because that means the demand from yesterday - and the big trades - was essentially proper investment demand.
Can’t recall the last day when volumes were so high, in fact, which poses questions about who is buying……

Of course, the company would argue that the share price is materially undervalued - but then they (and I) have thought that for the last three and a half years. Feels as if (finally!) a rerating may be on the cards?

After today's action, it looks as if someone is stepping on the gas to get the buyback done at these levels. Though of course the buyback may well have stimulated wider interest. I'll be surprised if there aren't a million of the 3.5mn being bought back.
Wonder what 125/6 looks like.....

Interesting discussion just now on CNBC, re Merck paying $40bn for Seagen and their cancer vaccines….
“Big pharma waits too long and pays too much” says Jim Cramer…..????

Absolutely no surprise at the news today.??

My guess is that news is now imminent on the Covidity trial.

Pivotal is the key word, Chelsea.
I'm expecting some of the assets to be moved into Zakari and deals to be done with large pharma (and maybe CEPI), eg to take Covidity through to market. I would be unsurprised if there was then a deal to merge Zakari into another entity and float in the US.
Either way, I think the aim to to unlock value here...and it may be that a corporate deal will be done which brings new management with it?

I suspect this is connected to the recent establishment of Zakari. I'd be expecting deals.

You are not in a minority of 1, Bermuda.
I share those views.
None of this stuff is easy and (as I have said before elsewhere) companies simply cannot guarantee timings of newsflow when timings are dependent on third parties - PARTICULARLY governments and multi-national agencies.

But I think shareholders are entitled to be optimistic about positive developments in the next 2-3 months!

One cannot hurry formal processes (eg CEPI).

This is a strong possibility in my view. Another possibility is that the Government have decided to back Covidity in a more aggressive way than initially agreed. There will be a need to demonstrate that the Government has plans to stay ahead of the South African variant, especially as it is spreading in South London and elsewhere.

Sky just reported that the 95% confidence interval for the increase in R with the new Covid variant is an increase of 0.39 to 0.93 (median 0.7)........
......if it turns out after the next two weeks that it is more like 0.93 than 0.70 then the panic button will be hit, especially if they think it might by-pass existing vaccines (either with this variant of some future variant).
SkyPapers also noted that the FT tomorrow reports that Gov't intends post-Brexit plans for vaccine development to operate on an even more compressed timetable!
Watch this space!

Yup - that is my view. Got the impression from Vallance that 23 changes in the sequencing is a lot - and there must surely be a need to look for (and accelerate) vaccines that have a multi-pronged approach to attacking the virus.

I'm one of the new arrivals you refer to, having bought in primarily because of the prospects for Covidity.
But I bought just before the close of Friday - one way or another this financing will get done more or less as planned. And we have only another week to wait for the SGM update presentation......

All the current holding numbers are on the company website.

Yes indeed. I've always assumed theirs was a legacy holding from"the old days" but, assuming everyone is still on speaking terms (and Panmure were told to call them) , they are exactly the sort of holders who might well have increased their stake.

This is all part of a process. Unless there are special reasons (as there might just be) for the placing price, I agree the placing terms look to be very generous. And unnecessarily so. But I think a placing price of 0.85-0.90 would have been expected. The warrants are a big kicker but they also carry a premium exercise price, so I think they are fair enough, in the current context.
Of course, by this time next year, I'd expect the warrants to be comfortably in the money - given Namibia activity in the meantime.
All in all, the placing significantly derisks the company. Yes it does cut the extremes of hope value down to size, but it also makes a still-substantial return more achievable.
I'm going to be especially interested to see who the man placees are....I'm hoping to see a few names of interest and/or substance.