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I saw a report about a planned roadshow with Stifel on ADVFN and take it at face value. It will be a series of visits next week to existing and potential institutional investors - probably about 15-20 of them - so that they get a first-hand opportunity to ask questions.
This is quite common practice after a cleansing RNS like the Interims because there is less “inside info” to be careful about disclosure on. Clearly Lindy has info about the trials, but there is a clear “line” established by the RNS as to what is appropriate to disclose.
I therefore expect no material news next week (unless it is out on Monday, in which case it can then be talked about)…..

Interesting debate over PR/IR.

I was formerly on the Board of a gas explorer for ten years and the debate over nuances in RNSs was quite frequent. As the person on the Board who took most interest in bulletin boards, I used to pay close attention to the messaging intended in RNSs and then monitor how they were received.
After many examples of observing both sides, I came to a very simple conclusion:

If retail investors on bulletin boards can possibly misunderstand something, then they will do so!

And, like the myths around the pandemic and its management by governments, once those wrong ideas are out there and in circulation, there is literally nothing that can be said to correct misunderstandings (which can be spectacular and entirely unwarranted by the actual facts in news items).

So, turning to the RNS yesterday, I see it as a very clean results comment, presented through Chiplin without any “side” or manipulation of expectations. Chiplin at this point is a caretaker. It isn’t his role to promote the company’s prospects because he isn’t part of the future.
IMO the new Chair will be designated in the coming weeks and, in all probability,, will bring a change of posture on IR, not least because they will have some proper news to disseminate re trial outcomes.

I see the roadshow as significant in that reprofiling - putting groundbait out into the market to alert investors to near-term newsflow.

Anyone selling out yesterday simply doesn’t understand how the company is now positioned and what is likely to happen over the next six months. They are unlikely to be able to reacquire a large position at current levels, because trials newsflow will take over before yesterday’s volumes repeat.

So I think the Interims RNS itself was very close to expectations, with the only point of note being the greater clarity over Covidity not being taken forward by Scancell…..but is that simply because it would divert resources from things that are MUCH more exciting? We’ll find out soon…..

Interesting development here re prostate cancer trial. Used in combination with the wrong things…..?
Guess they’ll need to find other things to combine with Keytruda ??

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mercks-keytruda-extends-survival-bile-duct-cancer-patients-2023-01-25/

AB, re Covidity the RNS is strictly neutral. It says and implies nothing at all about Covidity’s efficacy, with scientific results due in a few weeks time. All they have done is to reconfirm that the Company won’t be doing more trials itself due to cost and complexity for an activity that is non-core - but that definitely doesn’t exclude the possibility of a sale of Covidity to some much larger company with the resources etc to take it to large-scale trials.
We wait to see whether it really is potentially a better vaccine than those already under development - but if it is it will be passed on to someone, hopefully generating some cash and/or future upside.

AB…..they were always clear that they wouldn’t do more work on Covidity and would need a bigger partner with the resources to do the necessary trials. It has helped extend patents and may be sellable, depending on results, but it ain’t a focus. Fair enough!

I get a strong sense of things being left unsaid and a “straight bat” RNS.
No comment on the new Chair timeframe. Perhaps the clinical updates will be left for them to trumpet next month?
There is also a clear tightening of focus and a greater sense that the company now sees a clear way forward and understands its position in the market (eg Zakari and Covidity being sidelined) with a focus on Modi and Mabs.

I expect a number of news items in the coming weeks - and wouldn’t rule out platform deals. Modi news is clearly no more than anecdotal at this stage, hence the lack of detail - and that will disappoint some unless a separate update emerges in the coming days.

It is hardly a “ridiculously low price” to issue shares at the mid-market price. Clearly some capital was required to deal with the 2023 expansion - so it was fair enough in my view.

The alternative of bank financing should be explored in future - but, right now, the order flow and cash/profit position of Cyan makes equity financing more appropriate. But that should change as the cash actually, at last, rolls in.

Its worth a look back at the detailed presentation from last May. There are a wide range of leads and the possibility that at least one prospect could be 2bn bbls (albeit not the current best guess on size - though Shell and TOTAL have had upside surprises).
One thing I would expect to see shortly is some improvement in the risking attached to some of the leads.

https://globalpetroleum.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022_05_16-GBP-Corporate-presentation-mktcap-160522.pdf

I think the Zakari strike-off is a complete red herring and a coincidence. It was plainly set up for a particular structure of deal that they thought they might do and it later became clear that this wasn’t a structure they were going to use. It is unconnected to anything that may or may not be under discussion at present - its just a piece of tidying up or housekeeping. Why pay costs for something you don’t need?

WTP…..it was part of this interview, I understand.
https://twitter.com/squawkstreet/status/1612511542582312960?s=61&t=y9sgakmfUNtU3A8q7cyE4g

….you’ll notice they edited out the interesting bits about small oncology acquisitions.

There won’t be a hostile bid.

Though a contest between two bidders is possible.

Not quite yet, I expect, though Merck has yet to announce an oncology deal that was trailed at the JP Morgan event.

I’m mildly interested in the fact that they have flagged the publication of the interims with only a week’s notice….whereas last year they gave over a month’s notice…..
….its almost as if discussions at the JP. Morgan conference needed a week or so to be turned into legal form…..
I guess we’ll find out shortly what has driven the timing of the Interims RNS?

No.

Redmile, Vulpes and Calculus hold enough votes between them to block any bid…..if they wanted to.

I would expect any bid approach to be wholly negotiated - no-one has anything to gain by any other tactic.

If I were them, I would put out a separate RNS on at least the Modi trial (possibly Covidity too) to ensure that people don’t miss the significance of it.

Thanks for confirming the timing, Marcus. That makes perfect sense.

13th December is five weeks ago - plenty of time for further news to develop….and since Richard came off the Board at the AGM (at which point there would be no information remaining inside……save for the mood music) he is perfectly-placed to comment/interpret in relation to further developments.

Very interesting background snippets there, Marcus. When was the interview with Richard conducted?

Just on the points I raised after the RNS, it is worth going back to eg the October 2019 presentation in the context of Lead A on 125:

* Sediment thickness up to 8km in the main basin depocenter
• By analogy with the Cuu Long Basin, the Phu Khanh Basin has the potential for Billion Barrel Hydrocarbon Fields

……so if the thickest sediment is under the massive structure of Lead A, how much oil could that hold? My guess is about 2.5bn bbls. Of course, that is all it is: a guess. But when the data is published later this year, and the farm-in partner announced (summer?), we should get a very much better idea.

Note that they are very clearly “not saying anything” at this point……just continuing to buy back stock….

……40p

I hope Scancell’s January update is as complete as it possibly can be. I think, from a negotiating standpoint, one would want all the value elements on clear display, just in case……
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/merck-acquire-imago-biosciences-135-billion-2022-11-21/

Fair point.
I always thought Ed was persuaded rather than an evangelist for Egypt, but they needed a deal at that point, having binned their Kuwait discussions. I thought Egypt OK too, but was looking mainly at the explo upside and the apparent existence of a higher bid.
But 125 has been the main reason I stayed in. I think there is proper company-making potential.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/vietnam-operator-on-the-hunt-for-drillship-for-big-exploration-target/2-1-1387318