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Where you say “if it follows the first 3” you are omitting the impact of the passage of time and completion of the dosing. The first three cohorts should enable some general conclusions to be drawn - but they may differ somewhat from your extrapolated expectations.

The reason that Trinity has to note that the “current share price does not reflect potential” is that their understandably-cautious risking gives no clue as to the upside quantum in the success case or, more particularly, if any of the expected 2023 “value inflection points” are successfully passed.

I note “The first formal safety and immunogenicity results are expected shortly” re Modi-1, which indicates that they are waiting to reach a particular point in the trial. Elsewhere, Trinity indicate there will be trial updates “through 2023”, which I’d suggest implies at least two more Modi-1 news events after the one expected “shortly”.
Note also the Trinity reference to a “direct killing effect” on cancer cells. If one supposes that some of the early patients dosed in the trial have already seen material tumour reductions, that is not something that can be omitted from the first news event, even if formal quantification of effectiveness cannot yet be made.
I therefore expect the price impact of the Modi-1 updates this year to be front-loaded.

One too many zeroes....but still....

....and a late 425,0000 trade.......

Nothing announced for a whole week. Interesting…..

No.

You are comparing only the stats for Omicron and only for antibodies. By focusing only on variant-specific antibodies, the mRNA vaccines are risking vaccine escape. The huge advantage of Covidity is it provides a much broader stimulus for the immune system. Being slightly less effective at generating Omicron-specific antibodies is pretty irrelevant, especially given the widely accepted view that Omicron is not a particularly worrying variant, despite its ubiquity. The real risk lies elsewhere.

I understand that a paper is being produced on the details, so would suggest you wait for that rather than continuing to guess wildly.

Just re this clear joke, I'd guess that someone at the company does indeed have a look from time to time - just to see how far wrong the guesses are..... but all the execs will have very much better things to do. It is a useful thing for NEDs to do, I'd suggest, as they can influence the timing and content of announcements in the rare event that any misunderstandings are capable of being corrected by RNS.

Very good points, KonarA. But two thoughts occur to me:
1. There may be some discovery that points to the need to secure patents (the company stayed quiet for this reason for many months when Modi-1 was originally discovered, as RG noted in the Breese interview)
2. Sometimes making an announcement of the known facts as at a particular point in time can itself be misleading for markets. There is good reason for the pattern of announcements to be based on predetermined points in the discovery of facts.

The fact that they are “later than expected” isn’t the surprise here. The surprise is that they put a fairly precise timeframe on news in the first place. And the question now is: what unexpected event has happened to delay that news? Bid talks, perhaps?

Personally I’d cut them slack to the coming week - so I’d expect some sort of statement in days.

I’ll just note that, whilst an early anecdotal indication of efficacy had some value short term, what matters at this point is the overall trial outcome - for multiple patients and, hopefully, multiple cancer types. So people should stop stalking the lady in question.

If there is an issue (as you seem to worry about, with some justification) with Lindy being overloaded, I’d prefer someone to take the CEO role as Holloway did. Preferably someone who has worked with the new Chair previously and brings deal-doing skills. The non-exec Chair is 100% fine.

tf,
I spent nearly 10 years on a plc board, during which period about half the time we had an Executive Chair and the other half we had a NED Chair and CEO. The latter arrangement works very much better and is generally indicative of greater company maturity.
In addition I’d say the two heads are better than one, particularly as the Chair role requires longer term navigation and strategic thinking - whereas the CEO role is all about executing that strategy in the current year and delivery of the strategic objectives.
I suspect you are wrongly viewing a NED Chair as some sort of “just roll up to board meetings” role? Whilst it is indeed technically a part-time role, it in no sense implies uninvolved or detached. This is a team game and, particularly at this point, I’d expect the Chair to be nearly full-time in learning and thinking about Scancell’s strategic options.

I think that is the correct analysis. All may be clear quite soon, as the new Chair starts to articulate the strategy.

Basically the exact profile we should have expected. Globally-connected, market-aware and commercially-minded.
Two key bits of background for me are here:
“ Following his retirement from Eli Lilly in 2018, Jean-Michel has served on the board of Kymab until their acquisition by Sanofi. He was also a member of the Immunocore board prior to the company's Nasdaq listing.”
Both routes are possibilities in the future.

Don’t know his reputation personally but, on paper, looks strong and highly-relevant. Chiplin put the baton neatly down, without side, in the Interims - it is for the new man to pick it up and run with it……and the direction he chooses will be very interesting. Watch this space. He has plenty of options, I think.

I see a sale of 400,000 went through today at just over 20p. That and the lack of new news rather accounts for the fall today.

Hot money that had expected big news?

Hate to query an old saw, but “from Covid” seems to be more like “with Covid”, given the qualification “in part” that follows.

Whatever the case, we still need better vaccines that cut transmission and reduce hospitalisation risks further.

Precisely, chillpill. Though I hadn’t realised terminals were that cheap - I’m sure it was £25k when I looked into it 20 years ago when I stopped working for banks.
Thanks for confirming the source, chillpill. I suspect there may be an announcement on Monday morning re at least the new Chair. Smaller companies usually field two of Chair, CEO and FD for up to an hour’s grilling which, as you say, usually feeds straight into a formal investment process

I don’t know whether the Stifel roadshow idea is fact or not, but it makes perfect sense to me at this exact juncture in the company’s development, bearing in mind the likely future path of events.

If such a roadshow is to take place, I would be completely unsurprised if we had a further update on Monday morning announcing 1) the new Chair 2) the roadshow plan 3) an update on Modi-1 and/or Covidity. I would have carefully lined these ducks up in a row before committing to the date for releasing the interims…..

…..so if that were to happen, sellers since Wednesday may well regret their haste.

Just on the point of the Genmab deal terms, this is the first deal on that platform and has “proof of concept” value to Scancell. They have already (at AGM) made it clear they expect to achieve better terms on future deals.

Aaahhh well, you are most certainly right that speculation on bulletin boards is of no value whatsoever in terms of where the share price ends up. But for those, like us, in “the cheap seats” in relation to Scancell’s newsflow, speculation does make the journey more interesting whilst we pass the time….. :-)

After all, without speculation on my part, I’d have been sat on the sidelines whilst the share price quadrupled. And the same may very well be true of where we stand today.

Thank for the comments, AB, but in point of fact I think Scancell’s development of Moditope is on the cusp of a material acceleration. In my view, the Redmile investment has unlocked the pace of development - and that is why I upsized my position so rapidly in tandem with Redmile. We will soon see the fruits of that - and I suspect there will be bid approaches this year on the back of it.

In addition, I think the IR effort and the recent broker changes will have a material impact on the share price, taken together with the change of Chair which, I suspect, will be an interesting development that institutional investors will recognise as material in itself.

I think the days of anticipating slow progress are passing quite quickly now.