Member Info for emptyend

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/shell-drills-new-exploration-probe-in-red-hot-namibia-play-and-extends-rig-charter/2-1-1457083

Https://www.osborneclarke.com/insights/spring-budget-2023-uk-chancellor-announces-new-regulatory-model-medicines-and-medical

“ In addition, from 2024, the MHRA will introduce a new approval process for the most "impactful" innovative medicines and devices, examples being cancer vaccines and artificial intelligence therapeutics for mental health. This is hoped to accelerate patient access to treatments and build on the success associated with the UK's rapid approval of Covid-19 vaccinations.”

This weekend would be a good weekend to announce a clean sale at 0.75p per share then 😏

It is still only chickenfeed….

I fully understand the frustration of shareholders. It is always like that in news-driven stocks, especially when shareholders are confident (rightly or wrongly ) of good news “just around the corner”.

But it is a mistake to try to guess when news will emerge, which is why I’ve taken a position in decent size that I am comfortable with…..and just wait and wait.

I would have personally expected an update on Modi-1 by now - but I don’t know the timelines on research milestones. Fortunately, what I do know is that there are certain events (most notably, semi-annual results) which act as backstops to newsflow. And I also know that deals (of any sort) can emerge at any time.

Hence I wouldn’t want to be underweight, even though the drift may continue - because, depending on the news, the share price could double or treble in short order with no warning at all.

I’d just note that any expanded information provided at conferences should be preceded by a formal RNS statement. Unlikely to be able to know that in advance…..so just waiting…..

Http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12060487/Glaxo-hunt-takeover-targets.html

I’d strongly suggest that any Scancell investor (other than any who have a current cancer issue for which they need help) should avoid posting on Macmillan or similar sites. Absolutely nothing useful for investment purposes can come of it - and in the worst case their interference could impede trials (such as by persuading large numbers of people to present) and result in the polar opposite of what they wish for.
Best to remain interested spectators only…..

The evidence is not at all clear, in fact!!

It is highly probable at present that they are in a close period, as a result of being aware of non-public information that may materially affect the share price.

Since trials are incomplete and would seem to not be at an approriate disclosure point, there is nothing that can be said - and therefore no point at all to any promotional interview.

When such a point is reached , an RNS will appear - undoubtedly followed by interview activity to explain its significance.

The Vulpes report stated that results from the Modi-1 trial will emerge “through 2023” and the latest Trinity Delta report said “ Efficacy data from the expansion cohorts, evaluating Modi-1 with current standard of care in renal, head & neck, and triple negative breast cancers, will become available through 2023/24”.

Quite important, I think, for there to be several progress announcements….ie more than might usually be expected - particularly if it continues to look encouraging. Recall also the prospect of treated patients then having their tumours resected - which should provide particularly important efficacy data. When will that occur?

On several occasions the company has explicitly said that Modi updates will be provided throughout 2023 (or similar language). I think this very clearly indicates that they can be expected approximately quarterly - so, from here, eg May, August, December.

No RNS is required for option exercise unless it is by a PMDR - with RG no longer is.
Lindy can probably earn 1% interest on her option exercise money between now and their expiry.

Small point re vesting conditions, Bermuda….
These are relatively modest options for NEDs. Vesting conditions based on performance milestones are perfectly appropriate and standard for executive directors, but not for NEDs (as they have much less control). The cash cost in director fees is much lower for NEDs and getting and retaining good people requires some compensating carrot. The tranching can be viewed pretty much as a lock-in for three years.

Ivy,
I think they just want to indicate that this was a factor in the detailed option conditions. As Bermuda says, the quantum is bang in line with historic practices, so that ticks off that side. The funding reference is likely to deal with potential dilution and vesting conditions (including in an M&A scenario) but also it may be that the tranching is designed around expectations for monetising part of the IP portfolio during the next three years vesting period.
Whether or not the company had said so explicitly, they will certainly have taken into account the timing and nature of future events so, in sum, I don’t think it indicates any more than the fact that the RemCom have taken account of likely future events (as we all know cash will be raised by one means or another at some point - hopefully by deals).

I previously chaired a PLC Remcom. These options seem to me to be “standard” in both quantity and the terms. The new Chair is effectively getting options over £175k of shares p.a. for the next three years. Unless the share price rises these are worthless. The NED gets a third of this.
Neither are excessive and they are at market price, so there is a very clear incentive to get the share price up……and if the Chair makes a few million for doing a great job for shareholders, I’d suggest that is fine.

Personally I would have pressed for these options to be shorter in terms of exercise period, but ten years is absolutely standard so it is no surprise.

Now…..lets see if they also dip their hands into their own pockets, and buy some shares outright. I’d hope to see a six-figure purchase, if they are currently out of a close period (as I assume they must be).

Sometimes it is difficult for people to see the wood for the trees.

Back in February, TD said this:
“ Raising our valuation to £300.1m, equivalent to 36.7p We explored Scancell’s investment case in detail in our recent February 2023 Outlook. Increasing the probability on Moditope to 12.5% (from 10%) sees our rNPV rise to £300.1m (from £269.6m), or 36.7p/share (30.5p fully diluted). The next 12 to 18 months should see several potential value inflection points, ranging from trial results to further commercial deals. Positive outcomes should boost investor sentiment materially.”

And recently a Vulpes analysis has described the share price as “derisory”, in the context of values obtained elsewhere for pharma businesses.

In my view, transformational news could literally arrive at any time. For all we know, the Board (under the new Chair) could be auctioning off all or part of the company right now.

Thanks Burble - makes good sense.
Your last point is particularly interesting. Perhaps today’s RNS is a “tell them what you’re going to tell them” announcement - will there be a “tell them what you’ve told them” update on the trial tomorrow?
I imagine Redmile and perhaps Vulpes will be there too, given their spread of interests.

Burble,
Just for interest, how would you expect a company of Scancell’s size to be represented at such a significant networking opportunity? 2-3 Directors, incl CEO?

Correct JohnnyB1. Those options expire this summer. Lindy (intriguingly) has a similar tranche at the same price. All these 4.5p options were originally due to expire in 2020 but they weren’t exercised and the company belatedly decided to extend them for a further 3 years. I complained about this to Chiplin (because it had a material cost to the company) but it seems that the failure to exercise in 2020 was either an oversight or an impossibility (due to inside info….. which is possible in view of the fundraises). Chiplin told me that the extension to 2023 should be “long enough” in the context of expected news flow…..and that looks correct.
It is interesting Lindy has yet to move on this - because in the event of a deal before the summer she (as a current director) would have the options taken care of in any deal.

tf,
RG has been in “the departure lounge” for quite a while - that was clear when I spoke to him at the AGM in Nov 21.
Today’s news is merely prudent planning so that he has viable ways to plan option exercise (eg he may choose to exercise options, take the tax hit and then distribute shares to family - it all depends on his CGT situation). Exercising the options at some point will certainly be sensible.