Member Info for emptyend

tf,
RG has been in “the departure lounge” for quite a while - that was clear when I spoke to him at the AGM in Nov 21.
Today’s news is merely prudent planning so that he has viable ways to plan option exercise (eg he may choose to exercise options, take the tax hit and then distribute shares to family - it all depends on his CGT situation). Exercising the options at some point will certainly be sensible.

It doesn’t matter from a market standpoint whether the trial update comes Tuesday or Wednesday, given that the conference activity is after Tuesday’s close. But it was never going to be today.
Re management structure, no doubt the new Chair is on the case. Vulpes have stated clearly where they stand - and that would also not go unnoticed amongst any conference participants who are interested.

Attendance at the conference is a total side-issue. The only important news is the trial update, which will be RNS’d.

Lack of Director buys is not surprising. Diggle has about 15% and a seat on the board. There will be an update at Board meetings, which are likely to be every two months, and he has been a seller at 25p+ and, more recently, a buyer at 12p. Currently we are in the middle. It is highly unlikely that he will come out of a close period at a time when the share price looks low. For example, a good Modi-1 update should push the share price over 30p, I suspect.

The abstract is clearly not up to date and must be as originally submitted two months ago. In particular it refers to 21 patients “to date”, whilst the update of 21st February stated 23 patients.
My guess would be it is now up to 30+.

Excellent analogy, Ruckrover.

Gamechangers and disruptive technologies always arise from doing things that are unconventional or unexpected. The invention of things like penicillin and Marmite were moments of serendipity…..and entirely comparable with the invention of Moditope, to judge from the interview aired recently with Richard Goodfellow.

I would guess an RNS on Tuesday. The abstract won’t contain material new data - that will be in the actual presentation (and I’d think there would be more data in the RNS than in the presentation).

Interesting piece on the way cancers develop….

Study reveals cancer’s ‘infinite’ ability to evolve https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65252510

…..it makes one wonder whether the novelty of Scancell’s Modi-1 approach might have bigger implications than we may have thought?

I see the market continues to let Madoff accumulate. Highest volume since early January - and I guess another holdings RNS approaching with 9%.

Must say that I admire his patience, which is clearly paying off - and will give him a meaningful position before the summer game-changer news. ????

Yes…..that is the point, RuckRover.

This is all about the risking - and more data slowly eliminates the uncertainty and risk. There is no real science to risking with biotech, beyond the existence of certain research milestones. This is in contrast to risking in oil and gas exploration, where risking is derived by risking individual elements evident from seismic mapping and other data - and then multiplying them together. But the reality is that, once the data is in, the outcome is either a commercial result or a failure.

Note, though, that commercial results can also be well ahead of expectations in terms of quantum/value…..so really the market is merely operating on a best guess basis.

I’d like to think that vaccines that surprise on the upside, with unique protected technology, should be extremely valuable.

In my opinion it is absolutely no coincidence whatsoever that this piece appears this week. Vulpes will want to ensure there are no timewasters - and clearly feel the company is worth a multiple of the present share price. As I do.

I hear the lies continue elsewhere.

Those who are aware of them should take very careful note of those who are spreading them, as they are clearly deranged obsessives.

Meanwhile, the Saudi cut is quite interesting. I suspect that there will be further cuts this year and that oil and gas investments will once again be “acceptable” - because if they aren’t very soon then we will face a proper energy crunch by 2030.

Yes there is. Preferred partner.

Now over 8%.
Undoubtedly making his views clear to management, hence the comments about 9% yields and potentially trading assets.

He has a very nicely leveraged position for the newsflow from the next 18 months. The only surprise to me is that he seems to have had no trouble building it.

AB124 is now filtered, for general info….

Thanks for the irrelevant and unfounded tedious personal nonsense, AB124.

As an example of what I was talking about, look at Jersey Oil and Gas today. Yesterday it made a fresh one year low, having trended down for weeks. Today it is up 40%, merely on confirmation of talks on a deal. Anyone trading it TA has just been ripped a new one.

City traders have a book that is marked to market every day. They have extremely low interest in taking any position they can’t be certain to be able to reverse in an instant. That is why they wouldn’t be caught dead using TA with Scancell.

Goodbye.

When I used to sit in City trading rooms, there were plenty of people who used charts. Indeed, I did myself when trading things like government bonds and FX. Trading charts works in those cases because you have a massive and liquid market and highly-predictable news events being released to a pre-determined schedule and which will have known (but generally quite modest) price impacts when the news is released.
That is a million miles away from the situation at Scancell, where you have a thinly-traded share (with about half the shares tightly held) and an unpredictable and unannounced set of likely news events, the timing and content of which is almost entirely unknown to investors (the April 18th event being a major exception).
Anyone trying to trade charts with Scancell will fully deserve to lose a lot of money.

Not really. Chartists have no better idea about news timing than anybody else. Of course they might appear to be “in the money” for many days or weeks - but still get wiped out by a big move.

One of the difficult things about equity investing is the battle between those who are essentially arguing that the last day/month/year will be very much like the last one…..and those who argue that transformative news will arrive tomorrow.

They will probably both be right at various points - but those who expect nothing to happen will be right on many, many more occasions than those who expect immediate news.

The compensation for that, potentially, is that transformative news from companies like Scancell can move the share price a long way.

I view the share price as two steps forward and one step back - but one never know the size or location of the steps.

I’d say today’s presentation largely confirms this. I’d guess that 125 may soon have prospects totalling c.5bn bbl of potential prospective resources.
Note that the licence extension sounds likely to come over the summer, and a farm-in partner may well be confirmed at the same time? Should trigger something of a rerating when that happens (though probably unlikely to happen before then?)