The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
One point I’d note on the “what he’s up to” question from tf…..
…..many corporate mergers fail due to having too many executives for the post-merger number of executive chairs available. I don’t think that will be a problem with Scancell……
….mmmm…..
I bought more Scancell today in part because of what happened to another stock I hold yesterday. As a result of another company doing a deal in the same “space” on Monday, the share price literally doubled on Tuesday. Very small and speculative stock of course, but the point is that even news which is not company-specific can move the market quickly.
I also notice that BiotechTV is sponsored by NASDAQ, amongst others, and carries an interview with a VC who pointed out that London listings materially undervalue biotech companies. I would be unsurprised if he broached that topic with Lindy. Soon see……
All good points. Summarises my own view as at yesterday.
But this afternoon I’ve put my money where my mouth is and topped up. Possibly there is a longer line of stock looking for a home, but I’m hoping to see news rather sooner than later.
Scancell remains my “conviction stock” in the portfolio.
Just for interest, I haven’t “waited ten years” and I won’t be “waiting another ten years” either. I invested in 2020, shortly before Redmile, and have a similar average cost (albeit without the convertible carry).
I’m surprised that the market seems to be underwhelmed by the opportunity here…..but have little doubt that can be corrected very quickly indeed.
What would Vulpes say about a share price that is half the share price that, 12 months ago, they called derisory?
What if the reason for lack of news is a bid for the whole company?
What price would Vulpes and Redmile be content to sell at? None of us know. But my guess would be a big multiple of the current share price. An agreed deal at around 60p is not an impossibility, given sector precedent and valuations.
Interesting that it closed at 0.15 mid when virtually all the trades in the last hour or so of trading seemed to be centred around 0.14.
Suggests to me that there may be a very big order being worked and that much of the trading late on was mostly about hoovering up stock.
Prospective resources on the licence are 3.5 billion barrels, unrisked……and, net to GBP and fully risked, there are prospective resources of 326 million barrels.
https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/namibia/global-petroleum-announces-increase-in-prospective-resources-estimate-for-the-marula-prospect-in-namibian-licence-pel0094
That is an enormous upside, given the derisory market cap - all they need to a partner to either cut them a decent carry or, alternatively, take the company out completely.
So….from the AR&A, these are the approx changes in major holders since last year:
Lombard Odier……sold 30mn
Yorktown……sold 20mn
Radoff…..bought 38mn
Aberforth …..bought 4.5mn
Pharos…..bought 10mn in buyback
The only other change noted was Blue Albacore sold c 300,000 (so 1% of holding)
The other longstanding holders (Continis, Maugein estate, Story etc hold the same as last year.
Guess the main Q is what will happens to Story’s 16.2mn, but there don’t seem to be any other blocks potentially in play.