Member Info for emptyend

Cronin is now 70.

A monetisation event will be coming soon, even if he isn’t around to see it…….

…..apart from those who are absolutely determined to see the glass as less than half-empty and continue an irritating and irrelevant whine, rr. 🙄

You’ve never made a market, Crusty.

He’s trying to get VOLUME - not “the lowest price”. And one way to do that is to induce trading accounts to sell if they can be led to think they’ll be able to buy back later.

The only person it seems to be annoying is you.

Goodnight 👋

Sigh……..have a word with moonparty, Crusty, he’s got the right idea…..

Very simple indeed, Crusty, and I pointed this phenomenon out two weeks ago!

All the action is on the theoretical offered side of the market, so that mug sellers will be more like to sell above the mid - exactly as you illustrate. The ongoing buyer want as much as he can get and - if anyone is stupid enough to sell below the mid of the quote then so much the better.

Yes, JohnnyB1…..the possibility of a plurality of milestone payments seems to have passed most by. I think this is the set-up for a big deal with Genmab, which could produce very substantial cash sums. How big a deal is difficult to say, but they have plenty of options with Glymab Therapeutics and the two parallel licences.

Currently in Thailand, but will consider that in due course, thanks. Its a difficult job from a professional standpoint to quantify the value of Scancell, because we have a rising value of the total market opportunity and a rising chance of success, but little visibility on precisely how we’ll get there.

There are two numbers I think are important: 1. the value in the success-case outcome and 2. the number a bidder would need to pay to take control before they got to that point. I think both are in the £600mn to £1.2bn range……but they are rising - and potentially rising quite quickly as more info emerges.

Everything else is actually a guess.

Thanks - but that TD note is what is called a “flash update”, published immediately after the results but before the presentation. What I am interested in is the full 15 page analysis. The gauntlet was thrown down for Frank - lets see if he picked it up properly…..

LL……quite so……the TD note you refer to was from November.

I think both they and Panmure will update on Monday or Tuesday - and it is those notes I want to see, following Thursday’s call.

"I do think that in the bigger picture we have to marry the two GenMab deals to the creation of GlyMab Theraputics Ltd."

Personally I think the reasons for GT's creation lie in the glymabs they aren't yet talking about in public - as indicated by Phil's choice of words on the topic. The filing of new patents re co-dosing is also significant.

May I ask those in the UK to post the key info on analyst estimates in this thread? I heard a couple sounding quite excited on the interims call - and it seems to me that ugrades should be in store for iSCIB1+ in respect of both the total size of the opportinity and the likelihood of completing the trial successfully. Personally I think there is a better than 50% chance of revenues of $1.5bn+ from 2029 and a 10-20% chance of a similar and fast-growing revenue stream from adjuvant/neoadjuvant application following a couple of years later.....

....but this analysis (from professionals) will be an important benchmark against which to assess the value of any partnership terms that may emerge. How much is the market opportunity worth rigbt now?

I think the NAV should be at least 60-70p per share.

Chester,

“What we don’t know is the structure going forward……. it is still a liability for GenMab if the targets prove to be successful.”

Yes, that is my central point. If they expect to say the larger milestones in the foreseeable future, the discounted value to the larger milestones will also be substantial. I also note that there has been no detailed comment on Genmab’s work, though there seems to be a clear expectation of cash arriving at some point in the coming months. What, for example, would Genmab pay to buy out the existing agreement(s) for cash?

I did rewatch the early bit, to pick up this, re GT:

“We have two products that we are talking publicly about…..”

So the subtext is that there are others of substantial interest - I wonder if those may have been the trigger for establishing Glymab Therapeutics a few months ago?? I think they have a range of options re monetising from GT…….I’d like to see a partner brought in for cash, followed by a spin-out and flotation. Genmab is clearly a candidate, as milestone payments seem to be falling due.

You can tell the IC journo wrote this paragraph before Monday’s news:

“ There are no easy valuation points that can be assessed at this stage in Scancell’s development – it is still a cash burner rather than generator. However, investors will have a better idea of its prospects as more data from the key phase 2 SCOPE skin cancer vaccine trial becomes available this year. This will determine how strong a hand management has when funding negotiations begin in earnest. Hold.”

Journo alert……they’ve already started. 🙄

Re Roses “ From the webcast - modi PFS should be available in 3 to 6 months”, note that Phil said this quarter and then corrected himself to this half-year. Similarly when one of the analysts asked about the timeline for breakthrough designation from the FDA, he commented about being a hostage to fortune but indicated 2-3 months. There was also the “slip” over Genmab.

I sympathise with Phil’s problem on these things. My overall sense is that there are a LOT of balls in the air being juggled in private and that there will be major developments by May - but what, who with, and exactly when are matters which have yet to reach a decision point. The only valid takeaway is that developments can be expected this side of summer and will be market-moving. Sath confirmed they will keep investors informed as decisions are taken

I think the overall objective of the call was achieved. Remember they were effectively being invited to negotiate in public every time a question was asked, so I think they kept their options open rather adroitly.

I suspect that several milestone payments may be made at once. Note that Sath flagged the potential quantum of $620mn of milestones in each deal.

Listened to the presentation from Thailand. I’m not going to rewatch it anytime soon, but I was struck by the nuances of some of the language used early on in the presentation. I think they are now seeing this as a much bigger opportunity than they thought even at AGM time - and I suspect that might be due to pharma interest. Opportunity for breakthrough status with the FDA seems very significant.

Also (when Frank at Trinity Delta has run the numbers ;-)) they seem more inclined to look at going alone - and that suggests to me that they will license out Modi or get funds from Genmab milestones, as well as dual-listing on the Nasdaq at some point (next year??). Either way, they seem highly confident about generating material shareholder value.

They also dropped some tantalising ways in which the immunobody platform could be used to target other late stage cancers.

In the round, this has the feel to me of a portfolio pharma majors will want to control….and that points to bid risks as they start to decide how to organise financing. Quality problem to have though…..

I’ll just repeat my point from yesterday and add an unscientific point on top:

“ They KNOW how to find the 80% of the cases that it works on. Getting some sort of response from 100% of those doesn’t seem impossible. Identifying those it works on completely transforms the likelihood of success.”

They KNOW which 80% of people it works on and they also know the way it works and why. So it seems to me they are well on the way to being able to cure 80% of those with advanced melanoma AND there is also the potential of developing a vaccine to stimulate the immune system to PREVENT melanoma in high-risk populations.

How far down that line of thought will the company go later today?……

“ we should start to build towards an MCap of £200 million.”

……or just blow it away in a day

Tf, Heading into HH tomorrow - hope to be back for 2pm presentation.