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On the contrary. They are likely to have already been bought by me and others…..

Well I caught the falling knife yesterday with a modest opening position. I can fully understand the reasons for the fall from recent highs but fundamentally think the business is well-positioned.

Why the discount? Wait to see who subscribed…..

I doubt it. I suspect the IND won’t be submitted until after Christmas, given that the US doesn’t close down like the UK.

However…..just added another 40,000, because one never knows when big news will come.

One day, Rodders, we’ll wake up to a game-changing deal. Not yet……but more likely than not in the next six months. I think we’ll see a few mentions in New Year tip columns before that.

But the JP Morgan conference could perhaps be the prime time for that - hence the rush to get regulatory assent to the structure of the registration trial and, perhaps, accelerated approvals (given that there is proven safety data for SCIB1 and iSCIB1+ as a monotherapy).

“ at the moment we are scheduling that we could well reach commercialization late in 2029…….

……. We're now in the process of preparing the IND that will be submitted before the end of the year.

And along with that, we will also start to ask particularly the FDA questions around, can we get a breakthrough status for this product, given the data that Nermeen has just shared with you and what's the possibility to even get an accelerated approval, which helps our commercialization time line. So, great momentum with the regulators to date.”

And, re the Cohort 4 early termination: “ we do have some early T-cell data that has confirmed the accelerated immunization is the right path to take”…..so that question was answered by cohort 4 prior to termination and has been incorporated in the registration trial plan.

I read all the above as indicating the potential for earlier commercialisation and a bigger market with earlier interventions.

Yes - very clear expectation of lodging IND before year-end.

I’m particularly interested in the possibility of breakthrough designation or accelerated approval. Given that the FDA seem pretty on-message and the remaining boxes will be ticked off in the IND which is due to be filed this month, what is the potential timeline if the FDA are minded to play ball?

Could they, for example, give accelerated approval soon thereafter?

And, given that the Modi-1 data is being held back into Q1, could this increase the possibility of a whole company deal early in 2026, with accelerated approval and Modi-1 partnering (for which Phil sounded particularly confident!) up for grabs?

It sounds like they may be able to give some further steer at the JPM conference? That would account for the total focus on iSCIB1+ registration stuby discussions with the regulators and their tearing hurry…..

Not really - but this SparkLive nonsense is unnecessarily cumbersome! Meanwhile I note they (very unhelpfully!) now list two times for it on the SparkLive website…..so is it supposed to start at 1pm or 2pm UK time? 🤔

Hi Balerno,

Small quibble with your comment here:

“ there is the news vacuum between Xmas and new year where positive news is more likely to get front page exposure.”

There is USUALLY a vacuum. But I have shares in an oil exploration company that once announced a discovery between Christmas and New Year and (since many sellers were away or had closed their books for year end) the shares went up by 30% by New Year’s Eve. It is very unlikely that a similar pressing announcement would emerge here - but not totally impossible if, for example, Genmab triggered 2-3 milestone payments at the same time and there was a sudden inflow of £20-30mn.

Same thought occurred to me - but unlikely I think. The timing likely more a courtesy to ESMO?

Only another 5 mins to the probable nothing….

Violindog back on filter. Again.

There ARE interested parties for deals/finance. About a dozen of them (though not necessarily a dozen interested in iSCIB1+). And the upcoming presentation and regulatory discussions will solidify that.

My reading is that when the trial design has been agreed by regulators, a deal will be done. That will be sometime in the next 2-3 months, depending on how swiftly the regulators move.

Meantime a Modi-1 update is awaited…..

Thanks. News that is more or less “as expected” won’t do more than underpin the share price…..but the real question is: “what is happening behind closed doors?”.

Going back to the AGM points, it is clear that regulatory discussions are going well (perhaps better than expected?) and sound quite advanced. The company remains tight-lipped about commercial negotiations (no AGM slides still) and I’m pretty clear they have multiple alternative routes to deals that finance the trials. The route they choose will show the extent to which they think they can continue independently.

Durability of response and low risk of immune escape are both important. Good to know early that intramuscular beats intradermal, which means less hanging about for data to mature. Regulatory progress also seems to being made quickly - which is essential.

By the way, I think the million trade was likely a purchase. Holdings announcement might clarify?

Indeed dragon. It seems some on here don’t have the slightest clue about how markets work. The shares that were reported on Friday will have (mostly, at least) already been bought by others and the broker may well have been technically short for a few days, given he had a committed sale order on the other side. In other words, the price has risen because the line of readily-available shares has come to an end.

There we go…..4.2 mn of clear-out trades reported from Friday afternoon……

News tomorrow, per my earlier forecast…..

Recon Africa have found deep sections of hydrocarbon pay and shows in their onshore block:

https://youtu.be/7PyGw8r1w70?si=CkZkrq1hMqYbI-fx

Seems they hadn’t planned a proper flow test but will now be doing one in the new year.

Encouraging for the offshore too, I guess…..

So……good timing for a pre-Christmas update!