Member Info for emptyend

FTSE……I don’t think anybody who attended the AGM thought for a second that the funding decision etc would be “straightforward”. They clearly have considered multiple alternative ways forward involving deals for different parts or all of the company. This decision will have an enormous impact of the future of the company and on shareholder risks and returns - so it is imperative they choose wisely!

I can think of another one.....

Yawn

Verily.

Yes I did, CristyPot. So what?

That is four pointless posts now - and I’m sure you’ll make it five….

Not sure the 14.48 buyer of 200k at 25p gives the slightest damn……🙄

Exactly. mRNA vs DNA. That is the key selling point for Scancell: quicker, cheaper, easier……and probably even more effective.

Maybe. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see “suspended pending an announcement” at some point.

For comparison purposes re valuations:

https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/revolution-daraxonrasib-asco-2026-rasolute-study-results/821555/

Worth remembering that dividends are paid based on a percentage of FCF. Not only should dividends (possibly incl a special dividend?) be much higher this year, but also there is enough cash to retain a bit more risk on the Prospect A well on 125. This is "only" a $50mn well, which is not "out of scope" in my opinion, especially if oil prices and realisations stay high!

I would rather they sole risked it than let the majors bully them into a longer timeframe. In fact I would rather they sole-risked it anyway!

If I were a major pharma company, intending to acquire a company and announce it during ASCO (which starts tonight, around 6pm our time, in Chicago), I would be quite keen that my target (Scancell?) said absolutely nothing to draw attention to itself before that event - both for reasons of not alerting the competition before the deal is done and to ensure that I control the flow of commercially-sensitive information into the public domain.

……

The only way that Scancell would agree to such a gagging would be if there was a massive bid premium. This company SHOULD be worth £1bn+ in such a scenario.

Well of course that is possible, Chelsea11, even probable. But most of us aren’t arrogant enough to think we “know it all” especially in what looks increasingly like some sort of M&A situation. In my experience (which includes having been a director of a company and looking at bulletin boards at the same time) it is pretty rare for anybody on any bulletin board to “get it right” before major news comes out.

But, equally, I’d say that somebody looking in details at the flows of shares (especially when volumes rise) may get a slight inside track towards making a better guess. However, I don’t think the inside track helps much here - you are either holding a big parcel of shares when the music stops, or you aren’t.

MBUski, I agree with that but, if the cleaner/chill comments are correct then they aren’t in complete control of the timing of events. My guess would be that they are waiting on GenMab to announce they are taking a majority stake in GT…..which would likely be next week?

Quite a good question, though it works both ways. Certainly the recent delays due the news (ie since Q3 last year) have been a deliberate choice, to let the data mature so that discussions with pharma don't start with “yes, but”. That makes perfect sense, especially if we have a widening delta against standard of care.

It has also coincided with a period when management have become increasingly confident and against a background of a rising share price.

Many will remember the interview a few years ago in which they talked about the process of discovery of Modi-1 in which they kept completely quiet for a year as they protected that discovery. I have been wondering if this is similar, because I had expected to hear about the resected H&N cohort a long time ago (because analysis of resected tissues would yield unique information about how Modi-1 works) but instead we’d heard nothing at all…..but, since then, we’ve had Lindy back in the lab full-time and have had the executive and whole board beefed up.

Its a bit like reading tea leaves for now……but, to answer your question, I’m not confident that a Modi-1 update will emerge soon…..but I am confident it will emerge when it timely in relation to everything else going on in the company.

Completely agree with that!

Bermuda,

I’m going to leave the discussion here, but will just note that you have no basis whatsoever for asserting “There would be no benefit to anyone in holding up CT approval in the UK”…….

….we just don’t know. All we can see is a clear lack of timely output from the MHRA…..

And, re 2cvguy’s comment, Phil’s surprise and disappointment was made clear at last week’s House committee.

Bermuda,

Just for clarification, note that I put the word “bribe” in inverted commas quite deliberately. There are more than enough connections in an incestuous web of contacts within any regulatory organisation for such a crude device to be unnecessary.

Re “ is nothing whatsoever to support questioning their integrity and honesty” that is of course correct……except for the time being taken. Note that Peter Murrell was taking money from the SNP for 12 years before anybody made a serious inquiry into his honesty and integrity. I’m merely posing a question - but instead of seeing a credible explanation, all I’m getting is 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ and “whatever?”…….

Sorry to get the organisations mixed up, but my point stands. If the problem is the frequency of the approvals board, then it should be increased. If there has been a sequence of small points being identified one at a time (causing the approval cycle to be restarted) then it is very reasonable to ask why that is!

After all, the UK authorities were very familiar with Scancell and iSCIB1+……and have STILL taken at least five times as long as the FCA (who knew none of the background).

If government is worried about why growing companies leave the UK because they cannot succeed here, then this sort of massive nonsense is one of the prime causes!

And, as for the BBC, their investigations people took 4-5 years before starting to investigate organised crime taking over our High Streets, long after Joe Public had been asking for police to investigate the vape shop, nail bar, hairdresser money laundering activities. The chance of them poking their nose in elsewhere until it is a decade too late is minimal (nb the conviction of Peter Murrell - 16 years after he started stealing in full sight).

Having noted the comments about NICE foot-dragging on the trial approval last week (22 weeks and counting…..versus 4 weeks for the FDA approval, subsequently fast-tracked) I am wondering whether NICE has been “bribed” by some big pharma interests to delay their approval (based on repeated nit-picking points) and thus delay the appearance of iSCIB1+ as a competitor on the market.

Not only is that a PITA for Scancell and shareholders, but it may also be unethical (depriving patients of better treatments) - and one wonders whether there is a potential case for misfeasance in public office (or even misconduct)?

Note that the Hormuz crisis should have increased net realisations from production by an amount sufficient to pay for about a quarter of the ProspectA well on 125…..