Member Info for emptyend

Thanks for the video Marcus……apparently Scancell’s tech is “really cool”.

I’m sure Lindy will be mildly chuffed 😉

…….the herd is finally hearing and getting here…..

Very much more to go - and soon!

Re milestones I suspect the answer is that decisions remain interlinked and thus sub judice.

Re “ personally, I want the outcome that optimises Shareholder value”

That you, me, Redmile and Vulpes on the same page, I think. Let’s not pretend that the decisions under discussion are clear. They absolutely aren’t. They are interlinked and come with a wide range of risks, returns and timeframes. The good thing, I think, is that they have a huge range of options - remember the AGM slide showing 30+ interlocutors - of which around half were serious and ongoing discussions of one sort or another. Not easy at all - though the 31 million options held by Phil, which are worth about £3.7mn at current prices, should focus the mind considerably.

No fund raise needed. A GT deal will provide…..

“ Post-approval biotech firms typically trade at a 3x to 5x multiple of projected peak sales, depending on the speed of commercial rollout.

Post-FDA Approval Scenario

£800 million – £1.5 billion ($1B – $1.9B)

Share Price Range 75p – 140p”

…..and…...ON TOP of that, there will be a premium for control.

This company will be at £2 a share before long……

Some say 32p, others say 37p NAV…….but the proportion of value down to ISCIB1+/Immunobody is about two-thirds.

Equally importantly, the CoS of the other platforms remains very much lower, according to analysts - so any change in the risking of those may also have a material impact. Watch this space……

I noticed this on Friday:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1091306/scancell-s-melanoma-data-keeps-widening-the-gap-over-standard-care-as-phase-iii-funding-race-heats-up-1091306.html

Maybe someone put it up which I was otherwise engaged on the local elections, but the current estimate of 32p per share is likely to be substantially upgraded soon, due to…….

“ The broker, which acts as corporate broker to Scancell, maintained its 'buy' rating and 32p target price, implying more than 130% upside from Tuesday's price.

But it noted it has not yet upgraded its success probability to the phase III level of 60%, keeping it at 40%, until the financing route for the pivotal trial is secured.”

So there is an upgrade of about 50% of the current estimate of value of iSCIB1+ likely to be due as soon as the funding for the trial is confirmed. So that should push the broker estimate over 50p per share, even if there is no other positive news on Glymabs or Modi1 (which seems rather unlikely).

The next note should be quite interesting……

Interestingly, I also tested the market for 500k and got the same price……but I think added in a few more, so appearing to be a possible genuine seller, and the bid was dropped immediately to 21.6.

The moral of that point is (if you actually want to sell) sell in round lots……because otherwise the theoretical 21.5p bid will be used to rip you off.

Yup…..thats where I stand too. We have 500k in one account, but continue to be disappointingly overlooked 😉

I take no notice at all of the quoted price. In the hour since my comment below, a whole 80 shares has traded at 21.50…..clearly intended to justify keeping the bid low so the the buyers can hoover up stock by bidding holders just above the apparent mid. The quoted price is a total fiction……close at 23p, anyone?

The market is plainly 22 bid…..or even more. We’ve had this most days in the last few months, with all the action towards the offered side of the market…..just trying to prise stock out by bidding at levels which appear to be on the offered side. And then, soon after, both bid and offer ratchet higher.

The old penny stock saying “I wouldn't want to be out of these over the weekend” seems quite relevant.

Oh…..apparently Crusty now realises that there IS a difference between bid and offer - and between buying and selling 🙄.

Not before time. If only he was actually crusty, rather than absurdly thin-skinned and resistant to facts…..

I’m off now 👋👋🙄

I’ve been selling most of my shares by the way…..

It isn’t pedantic. The bid and the offer are different things…….as most surely know.

…bidding 🙄

Heh heh…..another of the clueless exits 😂😂

whatever, gob****e…..🙄🙄🙄

Member of LSE for 14 years…..48 posts until mid-April (one per quarter) and 20 posts since then, including at least 5 today. The overexcitement suggests lack of attention to events in November to January, which totally explain the recent rise. Chilltime on ADVFN had his finger on the pulse of the flows.

There is absolutely EVERY reason for the price to rise, not least because broker estimates are c. 75% higher than the current market price.

Deals and trial news will only add to the extent of the undervaluation.

Leak nonsense is just drivel - everyone knows that deals are under discussion, not least because the CEO laid it all out back in November. The only mystery is why more people didn’t load up much earlier at about 10p, as many of us did.

“ What Comprises the Remaining Core?”

……that is a question I have pondered for some time. I was hoping the biopsies on resected head & neck cancer cohort would answer it - but if they did, we have yet to be told.

Trump was talking about the FDA today and seems set of firing those who have tried to block “Right to Try” unapproved drugs for terminal patients. Doubt that is a factor here, but who knows?