Member Info for emptyend

The time to shout about it is when the company has been sold for £1bn+. It makes no difference at all where private investors take the share price - so there is literally no point pandering to them. Redmile, Vulpes and the Board know the true value.

….the important thing being that the data read-out on this will be quick if they can recruit patients quickly,,,

RNS out

This is the most important bit, I think:

“Additionally, recruitment into the neoadjuvant arm of the Modi-1 trial in combination with CPI was also approved. This study will recruit 30 patients who will be randomised at diagnosis to receive either two doses of Modi-1 three weeks apart or two doses of Modi-1 plus one dose of CPI. Tumour biopsies will be taken prior to immunisation and from the tumour resection 6 weeks following the initial vaccination. The two tumour samples will allow the extent of T cell infiltration and activation pre- and post-Modi-1 vaccination to be assessed with and without a checkpoint inhibitor.“

Yup.....thats the way it works. You can't tell when it'll get moved....

Some people on here would walk past £50 on the pavement......"was that a £50 note I just saw?....nah, can't have been because its just lying there"......😂🙄

JB,

I’m fairly sure I pointed out that the original options had lapsed in 2020 and that the conditions had lapsed with them.

Whilst we might speculate that there are other reasons too, it is in fact the open nature of the trials which means the company is in a close period.

Chelsea - yes….the trials. Especially SCIB1. Expect news on that around end September.

bs…..fair assessment. My guess is they had about 4-6mn shares (so c. 0.5%). Possibly someone who bought a leveraged position last December? Certainly someone who needed the cash quickly!

I might also add that I suspect there may be “things going on” in the background - doubling the frustrations of management who are looking at an unjustifiably-low share price but who remain locked out by the close period. The only thing that can restore a normal relationship between the fundamentals and the share price is news…..which will come at some point, whether from the trials or from deals. Meanwhile there seems to be a good opportunity for those who have been underweight or who have been trading the the shares.

I have also made some investigations this week, from very reliable sources:

1. The Company remain “very encouraged” by trial results, as do external experts

2. The Company is still in a close period, during which insiders are unable to deal

3. The share price fall was triggered mostly by a single significant holder who had a very pressing, urgent need to raise cash. Normally such sales would often be done through the Company’s broker, but in this case it seems they weren’t - with the result that the sales were more disruptive and disorderly than they needed to have been.

I conclude that there is a value gap here, which will be closed in time with further trial news.

I’d guess there will be some Indian news to release at the same time - hence the extremely short one-day gap between the announcement of the results date and the actual results. These things normally have a gap of a week or two……

….typo….3U not 3P…..but the point holds.

BLIMEY:

“ An independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 confirms a range of gross unrisked prospective oil resources of between 1,178 MMstb (1U) and 29,785 MMstb (3U) with a Mean value of 13,328 MMstb for the Prospects in the North West area of Block 125 currently covered fully or partially by 3D seismic. These resources do not include Leads already identified in Blocks 125 & 126 but not yet covered by 3D seismic”

Obviously OIP numbers need a big discount and risking, but those are some pretty impressive mean/3P numbers……especially as they only cover the area over which 3D has already been shot!

Also worth noting that an updated and rather interesting Corporate Presentation was slid out on 27th June. We’ll soon see what numbers can be attached to the pretty 125/6 pictures - and perhaps learn who is the drilling partner.

Last year July’s Trading and Ops update was on 20th July…..

….and we’ve been told “ In addition, an independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 has commenced, evaluating prospect sizes with encouraging initial results. We look forward to update the market at the July Trading & Operations Update”

And only 5 weeks ago we had news of the licence extension on 125.

Not impossible that we get news tomorrow of a substantial prospective (multi-billion gross) resources update AND a farm-in agreement for drilling next year.

At the minimum, we should get a resources update by the end of next week.

“When did the six months start?” is an important question, that had also occurred to me. And so when does it finish? August? September?

And CART?…September?

So…..the lack of an announcement suggests that no insiders are buying.

Given that this is the best opportunity for years (and coupled up with Lindy’s option extension, rather than exercise) this suggests to me that the company is in a deal-related close period (it is too early to be in a pre-results close period) and in possession of undisclosed material information. The question is…..what might that be? GenMab progress? Modi-1 trials prompting a fresh patent application? Corporate deal?

Not as far as I know. Block announcements just update the shares available to be issued - but when those shares are actually issued (eg when options are exercised) then the company must promptly update the number of shares in issue (so that holders can correctly calculate their own percentage holdings and work out whether they themselves need to notify because a threshold has been crossed).

This is the flipside of the interminable daily reporting of share purchases by companies doing buybacks.

Just to add that Redmile have capacity for over 5mn shares if they were so inclined.....

Cleanerworld…..short selling during close periods is a common tactic, because directors are out of the market. That might be what happened here - but it is unlikely to be anything related to the pre-results close period, because that is another 5-6 weeks away.

Therefore, if the company is in a close period now, that must be because some deal or other news is undisclosed. Perhaps it relates to GenMab (who are in the driving seat re progress-reporting on deal milestones etc)? Or perhaps there is some undisclosed discovery from the Modi-1 trial that might be patentable?

If the Company isn’t in a close period, I’d guess insiders have been on the bid today - but possible (in any case) that Redmile could have been buying, as they aren’t insiders and have a little bit of headroom.

Should find out in the coming days.

I did suggest that the lack of option exercise may be down to inside info still being held and thus precluding exercise. My guess is that there is news coming re antibodies and the existing deal....