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Marketmakers aren’t a charity. They have recently been hosed by punters thinking they know something because of the price move down from 13p and have lost money all the way down (because there was clearly no reason for the fall).

Now the company finally has some good news in the offing, so it is entirely understandable that the offer gets marked up and the spread widened. 10p will look a total steal very shortly…..

“Great progress” on the two current trials seems not to be the central topic of the posters. Rather, they seem to be using the learnings from the trials to promote further developments on Modi-2, CAR-T propositions etc.

I get the feeling they are “up to something”….

The end game here is clearly a corporate deat in which the directors get bought out of their warrants. When and whether that will happen is a guessing game - as it has been for some years…..

Watch for an update on 125 plans tomorrow…….😏

My guess would be that there will be an RNS next week…..but not on Friday.

There are a number of areas on which updates are due, including on Covidity in my opinion.

For interest….

I ran into an acquaintance over the weekend who happens to be the trading head at one of the AIM marketmakers…..and who knows I have Scancell shares

….his opening question was “what happened to Scancell? I turned round and it was down 20% on nothing”. He’d been hit repeatedly on the bid by one particular broker.

The point of this story is that often even the marketmakers don’t know why things are happening. Sometimes they do know what the cause was - but in the case of Scancell they could see no reason either.

Those here who beat themselves up saying “should have done this or that” should stop doing so - there was no reason to expect the movement lower. Similarly, those who have been patting themselves on the back for having been on the right side of that move should acknowledge the simple truth: they were lucky.

Very good point there……and indeed it answers the question as to why September has long been flagged as the start date for the new BDO:

From Wiki:

“ On 28 August 2023, Danaher Corporation announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Abcam for approximately $5.7 billion at $24 per share in cash.”

The ink is barely dry on that sale agreement….

As I noted in another thread:

“ An independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 confirms a range of gross unrisked prospective oil resources of between 1,178 MMstb (1U) and 29,785 MMstb (3U) with a Mean value of 13,328 MMstb for the Prospects in the North West area of Block 125 currently covered fully or partially by 3D seismic. These resources do not include Leads already identified in Blocks 125 & 126 but not yet covered by 3D seismic”

Since then, this note was published …..which is worth a careful read:

https://progressive-research.com/wp-content/uploads/data-sync/research/PHAR%2020230810.pdf

Tullow shares are up nearly 70% from the lows of May. Pharos shares fundamentally flat…..and yet they are in the same business, with a similar mix of exploration upside and current production.

There is no doubt the dollar payment issues in Egypt have been a drag on performance here - but that effect seems to be being worked through as conditions ease. A material rerating seems likely over the next six months as plans firm up for 125.

I very much hope that resection of treated tumours will lead to a much better quality of information on effectiveness. As I understand it, at present the only judgement on effectiveness is by a combination of sample biopsies and scans to inspect the size of the tumour mass.

But what if the mass itself is an unreliable guide to effectiveness? Shrinkage of tumour masses gives a clear worst case measure of the extent of the cancer - but what if part of the mass was made up of dead cancer cells that had been killed by the treatment but remained in the body?

The resection cohort should give a whole new layer of info.

Schools go back in a few days, Ray 👍

You have to admire the total lack of sophistication in his efforts to manipulate 😂😂😂

Not sure they are “fools”…..it rather depends what their objective is.

If they want to get in cheaper then it is “job done”…..🤷‍♂️

My MP…..answer came from the Dept of Health (Caulfield)

Finally had a response to my enquiry from early June re potential government interest in Covidity. It seems that the Dept of Health is having another look at vaccine strategy - perhaps not surprising in view of recent developments re variants.....

I’d guess that someone decent with especially- relevant BD experience was locked in to a decent notice period. We should see soon.

Brent price now back at nearly $88……up from a low of $74 over the summer.

No impact on the share price - though I do notice a slight uptick in the rate of share buybacks.

The game changer will be when we get the RNS of the farminee on 125/6. We will then get more detail on the drilling plans and, potentially, a further resource update.

If I was planning the PR around SCIB and Milan, I’d be making the “late breaking” conference submission late next Friday afternoon and then issuing an RNS to update the market on both trials on Monday 11th.

And if I were a Scancell insider, I’d be taking swift advantage (between 11th and 14th) of the cleansing impact of the release of trial data to put my money whether my mouth is. There can only be a short window of opportunity for insiders, ahead of the pre-results close-period.

BA.2.86 variant seems to have pulled forward the UK Covid vaccination effort this winter……

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-and-flu-autumn-vaccination-drive-brought-forward-as-new-variant-emerges-in-uk-12950935

The need to get better vaccines into arms still remains…..

Interesting price point info in this article. £3,800 per dose of Atezolizumab…..and four doses per treatment.

This vaccine is quicker to give than the current intravenous version……so that is another benefit of vaccines that has now been validated by MHRA actions….

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/29/nhs-cancer-jab-instead-transfusion-atezolizumab-tencentriq/

Keith is stepping down from FD to become just the CoSec again. He is 70 in January and is still around.

I read this as succession planning and an upgrade. Though the new FD has limited experience in terms of length, he has a broad range of experience in areas where the Board has been fairly weak (markets, IR, sell-side sector expertise, NASDAQ etc), so I think will add value to board discussions. He seems wholly appropriate for Scancell’s current and expected status, given upcoming inflection points etc.