Member Info for emptyend

Bojo,

Why move early? The answer is simple: if they wait, then one of their competitors will move more quickly and take the assets.

We’d all like everything derisked before we buy - but a) that isn’t realistic and b) if they wait for full derisking then the price will be much higher.

My expectation is that Scancell will be taken out at a MASSIVE premium…..and that most investors will say “Wow! Why didn’t we spot that?”

Two that won’t be saying that are Redmile (who spotted it early) and Vulpes (who spotted it even earlier and who continue to call the share price “derisory”)…..and it is they who will dictate the terms at the end.

The company don’t need telling - they are buying shares at five times the rate of a few months ago.

Clearly there has been an ongoing seller of a big line of stock. Lombard? Or perhaps a Contini? At some point they will be done - and announcements re 125 can bring about a rerating ahead of drilling.

Chester and PaulBrains both assert “a lot needs to happen” before values can be realised.

Actually that isn’t correct.

A lot needs to happen before the products can become cash generative - but it doesn’t follow that this has to be done under present ownership.

All that has to happen is for a buyer to offer terms that Redmile and Vulpes will accept. That MAY very well require more data (and that is the most probable outcome) but it may not, for the simple reason that Scancell’s platforms have some unique characteristics - and, if they fit neatly into another oncology portfolio, why would that company wait for someone else to snatch the assets?

FOMO applies to buyers of corporate IP too, I suspect.

In my case, I’m looking at an approximate M&A valuation of the IP represented by the product portfolio if inserted into an established and complementary oncology product suite (incl CPIs) owned by a major pharma company. Obviously that will require more data, but we won’t have long to wait for that now, at least for the two principal platforms.

My target is 180p+. Unlikely this year - perhaps next? Depends when the triggering corporate deal gets done.

Just to add.....the total potential of Prospect A alone is roughly equal to Shell's Namibia finds to date.....so 10bn bbls or so, gross.

And there are other prospects inside the 3D area, as well as other leads still being identified by ERCE.....on which topic we may hear more soon?

Whilst I empathise with the sentiment, elements of that story look like nonsense. For example, why would any company anywhere still have 4 analysts following the stock if it was valued at $3mn?

But I guess that raises a point: why don’t some of the analysts move to cover Scancell? Colin White, for instance, at UBS?…..

https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-white-75205131

White doubtless attends all the conferences and is an oncology specialist by background. It OUGHT to be his job to spot “the next big thing” before someone in the industry snaps it up.

125:

"The accumulative potential of the Prospect A whole structure is approximately 40bn oil in place. If you were just looking at the initial targeted area it would be approximately 14bn oil in place."

So the initial target potentially has c.4bn boe recoverable, with a c.70% chance of oil rather than gas. You can see why they call it a potential country-maker as well as a company-maker, as the whole complex covered by 3D looks to be potentially 10bn bbls recoverable or so, with more leads continuing to be worked up.

One wonders how the deal for 125 will be structured......

I hadn’t seen it, so thanks for the heads-up. Absolutely no connection whatsoever with the results delay; suggesting otherwise implies an accusation of a fraudulent announcement re BDO.

I’m not a clinician, but it seems possible to me that measuring tumour mass isn’t actually a direct measure of the cancer itself - because if cancer cells are killed, they don’t necessarily just “vanish” and reduce the mass in size. Dead bodies have (initially at least) got much the same mass as live ones…..

….this is why I’m particularly interested in the resection cohort results.

The primary thing that matters for health is not the presence of masses. It is the presence or absence of active cancer.

….consider the possibility that the auditor has been personally impacted by events in Israel? After all, it would a surprise if no-one in BDO had been impacted.

….not sure that taking up the time of the CEO is sensible. After all, I’m sure she has more productive things to do….

Pointless post.

If you have questions to ask then ask them before 9am tomorrow via Investor Meet Company.

My thoughts are that a deal announced on Thursday would blow those thoughts out of the water…..

ps…..any chance you could pick different thread titles if you start one - or just hit reply?

I’ve already lodged five questions myself for Thursday. The cut-off via IMC is 9am tomorrow. It doesn’t matter who asks what.

The answer to question 2 is no.

Question 3 is a very good question indeed. Perhaps it is? Certainly I know that the UK Dept of Health invited contact re Covidity, though have no idea whether any contact was made or how seriously any contact was treated.

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/bristol-myers-squibb-acquire-mirati-48-billion-deal-2023-10-08/

Lung cancer is the prime target in this one.

I’d think there are a few trading accounts who have convinced themselves that there is a “gap” to close. In the absence of news they might get lucky…..but they are braver than I am.

Unexpected corporate news appears almost every day……

Still going up……125,000 bought yesterday.

Meanwhile Exxon are planning to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for c. $60bn, according to Bloomberg.

……lets see the terms of that deal - I’d guess it will mostly be for cash, which would probably have a trickle-down impact (if not quite as far, just yet, as Pharos).

Re Modi-1, recall that the cohort expansions were authorised at the end of July and that the H&N resection cohort has only a six week interval between vaccination and tumour removal.

I see that Motley Fool are still allowing columnists to talk their own books based on minimal research….

https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/10/02/scancell-shares-are-on-fire-should-i-buy/

It takes me right back to 1999 when a share I owned was dismissed by a Motoey Fool writer because it was active in “bongo-bongo land” (which was actually Vietnam). It subsequently went from 30p to £23.80.

I’ll leave others to point out the omissions in the latest Fool piece….