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When you consider Mologic’s position what becomes clear is that developing an LFT from scratch is not a quick process. It’s easy to criticise the purchase of the Innova test however in the absence of an alternative test what could they do? Many of us (including Al) expected sovereign LFT’s be be available already but the fact that nobody has developed a scalable one to date speaks volumes.
What I do find unforgivable is the length of time validation is taking particularly for BAMS.
The government should be moving heaven and earth to get BAMS approved and distributed, it’s quicker, cheaper, more accurate than PCR and the infrastructure and trained staff are available. There is no excuse and it’s unforgivable IMO, BAMS has been available for months and the delay is almost certainly costing lives.

Hope so Gr33ning

Unfortunately on the basis of the two recently awarded logistic contracts, we have to assume that BA and Virgin will be shipping in a few more Innova tests to keep schools and hospitals supplied before we get onto the sovereign ones.

I think we have to be realistic when pondering the ‘is it us’ conundrum. Assuming we are through validation and in a position to tender, we know the new tender closes on the 15th, there then follows a ‘cooling off’ and tender award period. It is only then BBI can begin production. Realistically, I can’t see an AVCT branded test popping up in the background of a school photo before late Feb earliest.

It is of course possible that Al/BBI are in advanced discussions under the cover of the mystical government NDAs and production has already commenced ?????but perhaps not.

Interesting article from proactive investor with honourable mention for AVCT. Apologies if posted already.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/937362/pharma-learns-many-lessons-from-covid-19-shockwave-937362.html

‘First-phase clinical trials have been postponed or delayed because of the challenges of having participants coming in the clinic, while regulators have been told to prioritise COVID-19 vaccines.
In this sense, developers of cancer treatment, for example, are better positioned to face the pandemic because authorities agree it’s essential work that must go on.’

Agent

“All positive LFTs in the pilot will require a confirmatory PCR test in accordance with current public health guidelines.”

I suspect this is a requirement dictated by the poor quality of the existing LFTs. Would imagine this expensive, time consuming and complex validation process will become unnecessary with the introduction of better performing LFTs.

I posted some fag packet calcs yesterday that suggested that at the target price of £4.50 the £912m tender would require over 200m tests over a 6 week period. I suspect the limitations on AVCT SP growth will be dictated by our ability to fulfill any proportion of that tender. If we assume Innova are not involved then the question is who will fill the void and what proportion can AVCT/BBI/Abingdon realistically manufacture and deliver. ?

Lee/JDT

It’s always worthwhile to be reminded just how many opportunities are in development at AVCT. It’s easy to pontificate about the lack of LFTs but I’m sure Al must feel like one of those old cabaret plate spinners, dashing from one project to the next trying to keep them all on schedule.
However, as you point out, the one plate that cannot be allowed to fall is the affimer/chemo IP credibility. For me, the Astrea partnership was incredibly important and why the market didn’t react better is a mystery. Astrea is a decades old business with specialised tech that (no doubt after extensive research) concluded that affimers exceed the performance of exiting antibody based tech. For such a relatively small company to then raise £500k to pay an advancement speaks volumes and something we should all take great comfort from.

JDT, when you consider the obvious help that BAMS could offer to under pressure hospitals right now it’s a disgrace that validation has taken so long.
Have Condor any idea how a 30 min test under the hospitals own control could help with the triage of admissions ? What the hell is causing the delay. It feels like vaccines have been developed and administered quicker

If You were a believer in conspiracy theories you could be forgiven for thinking that someone somewhere has a vested interest in PCR testing ???

Good post Oke and when you digest Al’s words from the last RNS (courtesy of AP) he doesn’t sound like someone who is worried and fumbling to find the right words to deliver bad news.

Bit of a concerted effort by the derampers over the last couple of days. Obviously someone wants a few cheap shares tomorrow

Good point PL and when you consider circa 22% of the population (under 18s) are not eligible for the vaccine then its unlikely the 70% required for herd immunity is going to be achieved anytime soon.

There are many opinions that suggest testing will run hand in hand with government vaccination programmes, if for no other reason than to confirm the efficacy of vaccines and to fill the gap whilst vaccines are rolled out to younger/healthier demographics. We also don’t yet know the length of immunity, can you still pass the infection Etc etc.
I also find it difficult to understand how private companies will manage vaccinated individuals.
For example, assuming vaccinated people receive a ‘health passport’, do we believe airlines/airports will allow them to fly on this passport alone? Or will they insist on supplementary testing at point of embarkation?
Personally, I can’t see a situation where airlines/arriving authorities will allow travel without a timely airport test in the same way that they still insist on checking all bags despite asking passengers for confirmation at check in that they have packed their own bags and don’t contain a list of prohibited items.

In 2019, 4.5 billion air journeys took place. That’s a lot of tests before we even consider maritime, sports, theatres, hospitals etc.

Great posts this morning JDT and whilst it’s clear that AW is 90% fishing for reactions, we must all be alive to the fact that turning this BB into a pro AVCT ‘echo chamber’ isn’t entirely healthy.
My perspective as a LTH is that the ‘bread and butter’ cancer story has been decades in the making and hence an entirely proactive business model, COVID on the other hand is reactive and a business model AVCT have only been developing for less than a year.
We shouldn’t therefore be too surprised that there has been slippages in time lines and communication, far more important to get it right and develop the reputation of affimers for the reasons detailed in jdts excellent posts.

For AW to suggest that boats have been missed is nonsense and a deliberate (and poor) attempt to garner a reaction.

The facts are that we have an expanding global demand and as far as I am aware, we are yet to see a high performing, POC LFT that is available in qtys likely to scratch the surface of demand.
As AS said, AVCT will sell even test they can make and we have no reason to doubt that they will soon have one, possible two tests to bring to market.

Merry Christmas all

As it’s the season of goodwill I have a stupid question which hopefully anyone feeling the Christmas spirit might be able to help with.

How will AVCT generate revenues from BAMS?

I assume there is no revenue from the MS hardware (Bruker). I assume there is no revenue from consumables? Will AVCT therefore supply Affimers in strips or vials ?? Will it be a royalty based on providing the IP?

Just wondered exactly what it is that AVCT will sell and at what price estimate??

Merry Christmas

Not to worry, we can send all the lorry drivers back having had an Innova test. That’ll reassure the French .......

Without becoming interminably dull and going into the microeconomic principles of price theory.
Price is actually an equilibrium that is achieved when supply and demand meet.
Both supply and demand have the ability to influence price and both supply and demand are influenced by a series of external factors including, availability of alternatives, competitior products and many others.

‘It says the REGULATOR HAS STOPPED the mass roll out’
Errrm I wonder where this leaves the £200m+ ‘stop gap’ Innova contract ?

Government scientists are continuing to evaluate the spread of a new variant of Covid in south-east England as there are "growing concerns" about its transmission.
Dr Ewan Birney, deputy director general of European Molecular Biological Laboratory, said the new variant had been growing "very strongly in the south of England" but it wasn't possible to say definitively that it was transmitting faster than others or whether it was because the number of cases in general was growing.
However, he added most scientists "think it is going faster - that it really is a property of the virus".

I suspect we are going to have a Wales type reversal on Christmas plans?

Richob, you are quite right, an appointment of this significance would almost certainly not be advertised. It will a targeted approach with head hunters engaged.
As an experienced industry’insider’ he will almost certainly have broad industry contacts and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was subject to restrictive covenants regarding ODX suppliers etc.
No doubt in depth discussions will have taken place with Al and the AVCT BODs and I’m sure significant assurances will have been given and received.
Augurs very well IMO.

He could of course be an avaricious so and so and done a ‘Tevez’ and moved to the bio equivalent of the Chinese Super League simply for the dosh ....

Richob ‘People generally move for better prospects’.

Unless you’re Paul Pogba .... have a good weekend all.

Agree with that Cautious however the irony of the Innova contract is that it is inflated in qty due to the need to test students multiple times in order to pick up false negatives.
You couldn’t really make it up, we have a situation where the UK taxpayer is being asked to buy excess quantities of a sub standard test which is so crap that it needs administering several times in order to get an accurate result.
Then, assuming the ‘shareholders’ of Innova are achieving a 10% (minimum IMO) margin between the HMG contract price and the China factory FOB price, then they will certainly be able to buy a much bigger house than Al.