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LFT jigsaw now complete...one piece missing, the AVCT RNS.

If we didn’t have anything worthy of an RNS last Thursday, I can’t see what can have changed over the bank hol weekend. Don’t expect an RNS tomorrow but hopefully later in the week.

Wyn
I feel that testing will become the long term behavioural norm to keep a lid on any potential resurgence.
In the same way that airports scan everyone, the number of nutters who get caught is fractional. You can include seatbelts, smoking in pubs etc as examples of behavioural changes that society has adapted to after a short period of resistance.

I’m sure the government have concluded that mass testing whilst not perfect is the best (and most cost effective) way of reopening the economy whilst providing ongoing monitoring.

The economic argument is that regular at home testing is significantly cheaper than any of the alternatives.
As Matt has said on many occasions, testing needs to be advocated as an incentive that allows a return to normality and being able to do the things you like, not as a threat.

Agree with that Brightspark, as PSB123 pointed out, two tests per week is circa 100 mil

Assuming we have no new contracts with Innova, then where are these tests coming from? We know Surescreen can only supply a fraction of that amount.

If Boris goes on TV and announces this (which is now nailed on) then he must be confident that he can provide the tests.

Ive said before that I think the consortium tests are already being stockpiled in preparation for today’s announcement, how on earth can a 8th April launch be countenanced if not?

Good post PL

Worth reminding ourselves of the huge disconnect between bringing a novel LFT to market during a pandemic and a bunch of amateur PIs on a BB analysing every letter written and every syllable uttered.
If you’ve done your research you will not be worried to the exact day we receive an update.
News will come when it’s ready and it will be transformational.

Hope you are right Wiggly but suspect it will be all about the 1 year lockdown anniversary.
Emphasising great progress on vaccines, not out of the woods yet, remain vigilant, tribute to NHS and those who have lost their lives etc etc

Share many of those thoughts Wyn

Wouldn’t it be ironic if within months of the UK leaving the EU, not only do we lead the world with the development and roll out of a vaccine, we then back that up with a world leading LFT test to open up the global economy.

Then just for good measure, in collaboration with our partners we develop world leading treatments for Covid....... oh ..and then we will cure Cancer

Glad it’s not only me that thinks the single reason the French/European governments have a problem with AZ vaccine is because it’s British.
To acknowledge our success with the development and roll would effectively be an admission of their failure.
Very telling that yesterday, the Americans were effusive in their praise for the efficacy of the AZ vaccine and they are notoriously jingoistic.

I think your calculator was broken before you started Richob .... I think the global population is closer to 8bn not 80 .... either way 8bn twice a week would still require a Chinese abacus ...

Worth reminding ourselves

It is unlikely that any part of the £8bn contract will be awarded directly to AVCT.
We have seen already that contracts for the NHS ‘consortium’ test will be awarded to the manufacturers. They will supply the finished test and they will be paid by HMG.
AVCT will supply the reagent for this test and expect, due to commercial sensitivity, that it will be unlikely that shareholders will be told the revenue value of the reagents only.

Very different for any Affy branded tests, I expect we will be told contract revenue values but again doubt margins will be disclosed on a contract by contract basis.
I expect profits will only be disclosed as part of whole company trading updates in line with statutory reporting procedures.

Important that we step back occasionally and consider that HMG desperately NEED the AVCT test.

They are under mounting political and economic pressure to ease lockdown. Over 50% of us are vaccinated, hospital admissions are falling, the need for expensive PCR testing, intensive care beds, nightingale hospitals etc etc is reducing exponentially.
LFT testing effectively a method to sub contracts the responsibility for ongoing testing away from central government and onto business/schools/general public. ‘If you want to reopen your business, here are the testing guidelines you must follow’

It’s politically expedient and a massive cost saving for the NHS.
At 2 tests per week for circa two thirds of the population, that’s 80 mill per week, UK only, the consortium will be unable to meet this demand (thanks to Colin King we will have 2 of those 80 mill per week covered by end of April..... sarcasm intended)

Our CV S&S figures really need only be adequate to be able to sell all we can make, if they turn out to be industry leading, then we really are off to the races.

Good luck with all that CO, redundancy and the associated stress can be very debilitating.

I often wonder what the ‘tell your boss to eff off and walk out with a smug look on your face’ SP is for most people on here ?

Excellent, considered post as always Poirot

I can see a significant bidding war developing for AVCT. Not only does our pipeline have huge revenue potential, critically, it also has huge disruption potential.
Big pharma will want to control that.

Agreed, it’s great to see you Wyn. I’d go as far as to say that if you want to write one of your essays on the relative merits of charting, I might actually read it !!!
Anything to escape from those two clowns who’ve been soiling the board all morning with their moronic musings.

We know first hand that getting an LFT to market isn’t straightforward. No guarantee that the Aptamer test is going to have a seamless run to receiving contracts. Lot of aptamers to go under the bridge before they get to where we are today.

To reiterate, and to quote Al ....

‘We will sell all we can make’
‘Manufacturing capacity is the limiting factor’
‘We are working with governments and partners home and abroad’ etc etc etc

I don’t know what additional evidence is required to convince people that demand is not going to be a problem for us and contracts will be huge.

Agree with that Pigster. I’ve teased Wyn in the past but agree that his posts are neither ramping nor deramping.
Anyone with any intellect can understand that charting is just a forecast based on an aggregate of previous responses in any given situation.
It’s not an exact science and as Wyn has pointed out consistently, news can affect SP movement.
Wyn is often maligned for adding a bit of realism into what can often be an echo chamber of positivity, nothing wrong with that.

Says the interview will be available between 8-10am

Everyone is busy watching a place in the sun

In the event that the Co is split up and the diagnostics arm spun off, does anyone know the implications for our existing shares?
Ta