Member Info for CrustyPete

The process for approval passes from TPDC to PURA and then to the Minister for Energy and the Cabinet. The first two of these are "time-stamped" but the last of these the Govt / Ministerial approval is not; there is NO fixed timeline on this. Quite why it has taken so long for the Cabinet and Minister to sign this off is anyone's guess but they can take as long as they like.

It could equally be asked why it has taken the TPDC so long to sign off on the KN1 remediation scheme, relent on the spurious $6.93 million claim against AEX or grant the Mtwara License extension?

All political games designed to force AEX into the arms of the Zubairs I suspect. Some have suggested that similarly the Development License will not be approved until after APT drill C1 and this may be true but would require the Farm-Out to happen first (another piece of leverage over AEX). I have long held that the Dev License approval will have to happen before the Farm-Out but this is based on a conversation with NR back in April and may well have been superceded long ago.

However I have been given no reason to change my view and it is for this reason that I have always believed that the putative November Farm-Out date was always a "moveable feast".....

It is the TPDC that approve the remediation work programme but, to my knowledge at least, this has not yet been given.... The overhaul of the valve does not require TPDC approval but anything beyond that does.

KN-1 remediation was my focus re TPDC.

"(all dependent on the operator timelines)" really CP? More like "all dependent on TPDC and Govt timelines".... But I do agree that subject to all of theings listed below actually happening the Market Cap is certainly lower than the combined asset value. The point to bear in mind though is that rarely does the market cap actually meet or exceed that asset value - until and unless the BoD decide to dish it all out to shareholders as "special dividend"

BG, not sure that I agree with you on your assertion that "that the first we heard of the CH-1 well testing the Jurassic was Aug 23rd"

That may well have been the first "official" notification that it is the Jurassic that they were targeting but their intentions have been known for a lot longer than that; indeed since NT3 became Chikumbi 1. See quote below from 9th April.

"The planned 2018 well in the Ruvuma PSA, formerly designated as Ntorya-3, has now been renamed Chikumbi-1 at the request of the Tanzanian Government. The well is targeting the same reservoir tested in Ntorya-1 and in Ntorya-2 in an up-dip position and will additionally test a deeper exploration target. The proposed total depth is approximately 3,400 metres."

So I think this unlikely to have influenced the movement of the original September EGM date. The BoD and the TPDC will have had plenty of time to discuss their intention and incorporate this drill into the new license if required (if indeed it is).

Sorry but off line for remainder of the day.

Aaron Le Blanc? I would be surprised if he is not one of those transferring to APT after the Farm-Out - therefore at least in theory he left in March!!

That said Aaron Le Blanc was originally brought in to work on NT2 and then the remediation of Kilwani which of course he has still to do... hence who will do that if he leaves? After the disappointment of NT2 flow rates and the many changes in strategy at Kiliwani will there be a job for him anywhere post Farm-Out?!

Anyway one and all about to go off line until sometime late tomorrow - hence sp bound to rise :0)

GLA

You raise a relevant point Frank but I disagree that the small caps will not be greatly affected- quite the contrary. The companies with a global footprint and with income in currencies other than Sterling will be the "go to" safe haven companies. The smaller, typically UK centric companies or those exporting a lot to the EU will be badly affected and most of those will be the small cap co's. Ironically those operating and earning money abroad, particularly in $ should be largely protected (Aminex) but are likely to be swallowed up in the avalanche and indeed AEX are currently "earning" nothing so the benefit of a sterling devaluation will not immediately benefit them I agree that it will be these companies that will "bounce" hard and fast but are likely to be the ones disproportionately affected negatively in the short term if we end up with no agreement with the EU over coming weeks.

That together with any delays in the EGM circular could be a "perfect storm" for AEX.... :-(

That's why I am keeping my powder dry.

I am going to be largely offline for a day or two but hope to be back occasionally.

I hope that we have something new and more interesting to discuss before I am back. Thankfully this little saga will be resolved one way or another very soon. I hope that the likes of Drewky, BG and CP are correct and that we do get the EGM circular before the 16th Nov but past performance does not give me great confidence that we will. The BoD have a history of being let down in their predictions when the it is the Govt that are required to deliver against them.

And, as ever, whilst we wait the sp slips.

Good luck all.

BG I do not disagree with you in the slightest. You might have read my arguing similar on the Solo BB a week ort so ago. Effectively suggesting that a delay in C1 was likely to impact the date for EPS delivery and thereby income to the "partners" and meet the future demand curve for Gas in Tanzania. It is also important for the incumbent Govt with a General Election due in 2020 and is very much in their interests that it does happen.

I absolutely agree that it is very important that we sink the drill bit in December if those ambitions are to be met and I certainly hope that we do. BUT that doesn't mean it will happen.

"FFS, At last! You do actually agree with me that it's in the governments hands!"

"At last?" LOL. Who are you trying to kid .....? Dream on Drewky.

The fact that statements like "we will need the License extension before the Farm-Out or there will be nothing to Farm-In to..." made in April went without your notice then?

I didn't need you to point out that MOST things is in the Governments hands Drewky; Like the granting of the Kiliwani GSA, the KN1 remediation plan, the License extension the 25 Year Development License. The information and expectations that the BoD hands out to shareholders and the market is not.

But please Drewky when are you going to answer my questions from earlier? See below.

Why did our BoD tell us that the EGM would be in September? Because they did not realise that the EGM needed to be contingent on the Extension? Or that they just told us that knowing that it was highly unlikely or indeed impossible to ever happen? That they thought the extension would be approved in September?

Or do you have another explanation because if any of the above it shows the BoD to be either incompetent or untrustworthy or just goes to prove that when it comes to TPDC and Tanzanian Govt no timelines can be relied upon.

I couldn't argue with the logic BG but I am still sceptical of the application. Some of us, you included, were here for the Kiliwani GSA. It's a lesson that those that were shareholders then will not forget in a hurry....

and sorry one and all for my "deliberate mistake" in my first post of the day: it should have read November not September.,

"FWIW I expect the circular in November ( though not necessarily early November) but agree with TB if we don't get it the SP will suffer considerably. And unless the BOD are certain it will happen "on time" would have been better not giving a date."

Apologies all

"Thank goodness Pete the penny is dropping that the government are in control of the guidelines.

Jeez how naieve to expect it to be otherwise when the whole deal is awaiting the licence."

As it happens Drewky that point has always been totally obvious - though our BoD did not seem to recognise or accept it. It was only recently that they had "admitted" that the EGM circular was contingent on the License extension - something that I and several others had suggested months ago....

But you haven't answered the question Drewky. Why did our BoD tell us that the EGM would be in September? Because they did not realise that the EGM needed to be contingent on the Extension? Or that they just told us that knowing that it was highly unlikely or indeed impossible to ever happen? That they thought the extension would be approved in September?

Or do you have another explanation because if any of the above it shows the BoD to be either incompetent or untrustworthy or just goes to prove that when it comes to TPDC and Tanzanian Govt no timelines can be relied upon.

And for any of the reasons above the November date is no more assured than the September one proved top be.

So on what basis did the BOD originally suggest that the EGM would be in September Drewky? Was that based on the TPDC / Govt indications if a date for the License extension or not? Yes or No? If YES it shows that even Govt time lines move and, if NO it shows that the BOD were just guessing. Whichever it was it was wrong and consequently can be wrong again. FWIW I expect the circular in September ( though not necessarily early September) but agree with TB if we don't get it theSP will suffer considerably. And unless the BOD are certain it will happen "on time" would have been better not giving a date.

Not selective Drewky just abbreviated: even if you include the whole of that quote nothing changes. It is an irrelevance to the initial point of our conversation; What relevance has the farm out? Previously we would have have 75% of both the Mtwara License and the 25 year development license, post farm-out we only have 25%. They may be delivered together but so what? That does not change the fact that the License extension and the 25 year Application approval are two separate events concerning two different sized areas and providing two distinct sets of rights, privileges and obligations.

That was the point being discussed Drewky. Not the timing, not the dependency, not the effect, not the impact on the Farm-Out - just the "difference".....

Has the penny dropped now?

Good grief. Time to leave before I totally lose the will to live.

Have a good weekend all.

What? Drewky your very first point was said "I think the point is somewhat irrelevant" - I was simply pointing out that it is NOT irrelevant.

And how will having a 25 year development license at Ntorya help us get the Gas out of the ground at Namisange Drewky?

If you go back far enough you will see that this thread was started by edgar suggesting that the license extension and the 25 year application are the same process and were over the same area. I am simply pointing out that they are neither. And that has absolutely nothing to do with the "timing" or the fact that we may get them together. You have totally missed the point of the conversation. Your point may be relevant to something but not to the trigger for our conversation

So Drewky I will "wind my neck in" when you stop butting in to conversations that you evidently have not grasped the gist of.

Well I beg top differ Drewky the difference between the two was the whole point of the conversation. And whilst they might arrive together that is like saying that because fish comes with chips they are the same thing! They are NOT.

And what good one without the other? Well for example we could drill Namisange with the License extension but we could not with only the 25 year development license because it is in a different bloody area of the License - and that is EXACTLY the point of the conversation; fish is NOT chips.

And exactly why edgar's audience needs their heads testing.

Mmmm I suspect more likely that it would come under the (extended?) remit of the Development License.

Agreed CP the MM's are well short but cannot raise the price otherwise they would be losing money on stock they sold at the lower price.

It wouldn't surprise me to see them drop the sp to try and shake out a few "lose" holders. Though whether that would work at this stage of proceedings is doubtful. I cannot see too many people selling now only a few weeks ahead of License extension and farm-out etc Well not unless the sp rose not fell....

"cover the whole Ntorya appraisal area, but that will apply only to the Cretaceous Ntorya discovery and not to any deeper Jurassic targets which are exploration and will fall under the control of the overall Mtwara PSA licence."

But BG if that were so and IF when they drill C1 they do find a lot of gas what you have suggested above would surely mean that they couldn't actually extract it and plug it in to the pipeline, wouldn't it? If that Jurassic gas is NOT part of the Development License.

I am not saying you interpretation is wrong but isn't that the impact if you are right?