Member Info for CrustyPete

Orca are currently restricted by the capacity at Songo Songo GPP but, I believe, there are plans afoot to increase that capacity (2019) so 2C will turn to 2P once that "route to market" is apparent.

OI wouldn't say "dispute" but the last I read the TPDC have put the "freeze" on the Swala Farm-Out and there are issues with Tanesco (poor buggers) BUT the fact remains any issues are likely to be resolved when it is the Tanzanian's interest to resolve it; if that means the Tanz Govt meeting gas demand then you can bet your bottom dollar that they will be resolved .... Though likely as not they will extract a good amount in "reparations" whilst doing so.

Interestingly Orca had the same issues as AEX with a spurious TPDC claim and that yet theirs has been resolved in their favour recently. But not at AEX or Ntorya JV partners..... Evidently the TPDC do not yet feel it is time for letting AEX out of their Arm Lock.

So can confirm Orca's immediate production capability circa 100 MMscf/d.

CP, not sure where you got the 300 mmcfd from and what that figure covers but when thinking about the supply equation you cannot forget the Orca component...

Production capability of 155 MMscf/d and capability of increasing it to 180 MMscf/d with refridgeration....

Though haven't recently checked on Swala Farm-Out and the impact on their PSA and production figures but in theory that can be switched on at any time.

Agreed dunder any speculation is just as likely to be positive as negative..... M&A specialists I understand?

Not quite CP - not if AEX can get Kili South of Nyuni on tap over that period - and I think they could conceivably do that. Contingent on the early and successful remediation of Kn 1 of course. I would be interested to see what arrangement the proposed merger of KILI AND Nyuni licences brings about. Will Solo have an interest in Nyuni? Maybe with a combined 50% of Ntorya incomes and farming out of the drill they could fund a Nyuni drill? Though Kili1 incomes are still the major factor methinks and probably still requires a fund raise to do it in 2019....

CP, from your last post on the AEX BB.....

"Seems likely that they will secure the rig for all the wells to be drilled (as they mentioned) and drill the lot around 3 to 4 months between each drill."

Yes, that is what I have been saying to you for a while and completed in tandem with Seismics; the bigger question is when will that programme begin I think after C1 analysis is complete? December 2018 for C1 I think is now unlikely and that may influence the date that first gas flows through that new pipeline.... will Solo be able to fund their way to first gas? Or will that be sale or partial sale after C1?

I think the latter but with full funding for FFD.... and will that allow a sizeable cash sum for the payment of a "Special Dividend"? I hope so and, If so, I would be the first to say that Solo will have finessed thier Ntorya "monetisation" far better than Aminex. Though that does not necessarily that there will be a pro rata impact on the SP/MC; unfortunately.

Here's hoping.

"Strange to hold when you have no confidence..." and If I had "no confidence" you may have a point but you really need to read what I have written (now twice) Drewky. Let me remind you once again:

"AEX is an investment with potential short to medium upside based on the delivery and outcome of multiple events most of which are currently totally outside the Senior Management teams ability to influence or control. Those events are anticipated over a period of 18 months...." etc

So I am expecting a rise in sp - NOT the HUGE rise that you were predicting and NOT starting within (5) weeks but over the next 18 months (assuming delivery of successful C1 outcome). And the BoD not actually having any control of the process Drewky is a posiitve not a negative in my mind. Completing a Farm-Out would give me greater confidence of the eventual outcome not despite but "because" the Aminex BoD are not longer the operator and hence can no longer screw it up!!

And that is probably why the TPDC have been playing hard ball for the last 12 -8 months.

And whilst you may not be a follower of history and prefer Science you will, of course, be an advocate of the wisdom professed by Einstein who said that;

"doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, is the definition of insanity"...... So please tell me what has changed in the BoD's methodology for optimising shareholder value that gives you confidence that their miserable performance (and therefore that of the SP) of the last 18 months will change over the next?

Oh and if I read you correctly you are suggesting that the "rats" in your Winston story are those that have sold out of AEX post AGM perhaps? And the "re-rats" those that are buying in again as the share price hits rock bottom? Well you maybe right Drewky but, as I have told you on countless times in my case HOLD means HOLD and I have been doing so since the AGM. I may well buy some more in the not too distant future once the position becomes clearer but that would not qualify me as a "re-rat" by your suggested definition simply someone averaging down.

I hope you enjoy your beer. ;0)

Back Monday one and all.

You can assume anything you like Drewky, you usually do - but my HOLD position has not changed as I have already stated once today.

I described my view earlier but of course that didn't tell you what you wanted to hear so you ignored it. It is the one that's starts

"AEX is an investment with potential short to medium upside based on the delivery and outcome of multiple events most of which are currently totally outside the Senior Management teams ability to influence or control. Those events are anticipated over a period of 18 months the first of which is expected to occur within the next few weeks......"

Surely you remember Drewky the one you had a go at about with your sharply observed comment "you proceed to keep giving everybody history lessons." When I pointed out that "the same BoD was also due to delivery many events during the last 18 months but has totally failed to execute against any of them because they, too, were largely beyond their ability to deliver."

But then I always try and learn from past mistakes; as Winston once said "Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it."....

So I have only now re-read my earlier answer to your question Drewky and I now see that my answer could be seen as ambiguous. So just to make it clear.

CAN YOU LOOK ME AND THEM IN THE EYE AND TELL US THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT WITH A HUGE POTENTIAL UPSIDE THAT SHOULD BEGIN IN LESS THAN FIVE WEEKS?

Yes I can look you in the eye and say "this is not an investment with huge potential upside that should begin in less than five weeks".

"I wonder why none of you can give a straight yes or no answer to a perfectly plain yes or no question."

Perhaps because some of us have the intelligence to realise that past events are often a very good indicator of what we might expect in the future.

Best you buy yourself some incontinence pants.

Have a good weekend one and all.

Early_Bird "Take off cash and liquid assets" you are making an assumption that the full100% of cash and liquid asset value is reflected in the MC and it never is (unless they are paying them out asa "special dividend"). I would be inclined to discount this by at least 50%....

I can look you in the eye and state categorically that I WOULD NOT SAY THAT, yes.

I would be able to say that AEX is an investment with potential short to medium based upside based on the delivery of multiple events most of which are currently totally outside the Senior Management teams ability to influence or control. Those events are anticipated over a period of 18 months the first of which is expected to occur within the next few weeks. That same BoD was also due to delivery many events during the last 18 months but has totally failed to execute against any of them because they, too, were largely beyond their ability to deliver.

In fact when you read that you have to wonder why we need a management team at all really......?

"where do you see this as an investment opportunity as a potential new investor or in fact for me in wanting to make further investment at this price?"

Drewky I cannot possibly answer that question and would never proffer to offer "advice" to anyone. Eveyone has their own attitude to risk and capacity for loss and the only person that can adjudge tat is themselves. I know what my view is only for myself and my view of HOLD remains....

No dunder my post was not meant as if apologising or making excuses for the BoD. Far from it. I have said before that after their performance with NT2 drill and KN1 blunder I am not surprised that the TPDC have little faith in them.

However I am pretty sure that between the TPDC and the Zubairs they have made sure that they have got the result that suits them both and not necessarily the Aminex BoD nor (small) Aminex shareholders. And if I were in their shoes I am pretty sure that I would have done the same.

Just a pity that I can't buy shares in Zubair Corp - can you imagine how much we would have made going Long Zubairs Short AEX over the last 12 months? :0) Now that would have been some "Pair Trade".

"Doing it alone would mean "Drill Wait and Raise" - "Drill Wait and Raise" - were Jays words."

Correct Drewky and these words applied to FFD not for "Production" Drewky, not for "Production", not for EPS 2020. Production would require C1 with the TPDC, originally at least, on the hook for the pipeline. No "Drill Wait and Raise". There would have been no reason to raise between drilling and production - not on the original IO Commercial study at least.

Unfortunately that Study is dim and distant history and in the intervening period the TPDC and Govt have conspired to create a situation in which AEX have now NO prospect whatsoever of ever going it alone because the TPDC and the Gov't have decided to change the Goal Posts.

12 months ago we had cash in the bank, were owed an lot for gas invoices, short term prospects of remediating KN1 and were looking forward to Ruvuma license extensions. But now 12 months later we have no cash, an overhanging TPDC obligation, no Ntorya licence, no income and low and behold the bill for Ntorya has been increased with the spectre of having to fund the pipeline....

So now Drewky and thanks to our "partners" you might be right. But, how long would it take us to cover all of our obligations(C1 drill, Seismics? Pipeline?)? Well you best ask the TPDC Drewky. When are they going to allow us to start earning an income again by signing the KN1 remediation programme? When are they going to cease in their pursuit of their spurious $6.93 million claim against Ntorya JV partners, when will they make it clear who is going to build the pipeline, when are they going to give us our License extension?

FWIW, my opinion is that the 25 year Development License approval is contingent upon this accelerated Production Profile and it is blatantly obvious that AEX could not in any circumstances meet that profile; so everything that has happened over the last 12 months has happened with AEX's arm shoved up behind their back and the TPDC and Zubairs will not let that pressure ease off until the Farm-Out is a done deal. At that time the KN1 remediation work programme will be signed off, the $6.93 million claim will evaporate, the TPDC will state that they are going to pay for the drill and JB can then start the process off all over again with Nyuni....

Then AEX will have their income back, they will have some cash in the bank, they will not need to fund the pipeline and "production" will still be only 18 months away - the difference is that AEX will no longer be the Operator, they will no longer have 75% of 1.87TCF or 900BCF and the Zubairs will be laughing all the way to the bank.....

So through deliberate manipulation the TPDC have managed to ensure that AEX and the shareholders have no options whatsoever. Hobson's choice Drewky. To argue that the Farm-Out is better than "going alone" is totally specious

If there is no farm-out it wont be "Drill Wait and Raise", it will be "Wait, Wait, Wait, Die....."

"You have a choice of getting to the production stage in 5 to 10 years or in 1 to 2 years"

I ask again Drewky where do you get that statement from? tis is not an accurate reflection of the situation. It would not take AEX 5 -10 years to get to production would it? "Production" could be achieved within 18 months as it requires C1 drill and a pipeline (which now it seems the TPDC might fund). Production is very different from FFD....

"You have a choice of getting to the production stage in 5 to 10..... " where oh where do you get that from?

To get to first EPS production it requires drilling C1 and building a pipeline - are you seriously suggesting that even with AEX as the Operators it would take over 5 years?! FFD may be faster via the Zubairs than "little old Aminex" might have been capable of but after getting to EPS the options would have been endless. We certainly wouldn't have been farming out of 50% for a pathetic $40 million.

Though, actually, this particular argument does actually raise the crux of the issue which is that the TPDC were never going to let AEX get to production AT ALL....! And the action, or total inaction, of the last 20 months has just strangled AEX to the point of submission. Never signing off on KN1 remediation has been a strangle hold on AEX for nearly two years. (and those that have been posters long enough will remember my saying that KN1 is our "Achilles Heel" for well over a year now) And all designed to wrest control of Ntorya from AEX shareholders and deliver it to our "cornerstone investors".... Three cheers for our partners the TPDC and the Zubairs - Hip Hip... err no maybe not.

So I suppose for the AEX BoD fan club at least we ended up with 25%, $5 million and some carry. Better that than nothing at all and maybe they are right. But as I said to the BOD at the AGM if any shareholders in May of 2017 were to have imagined what little the BoD have achieved (or were allowed to achieve) since that date they would have all sold up then.....

But yes TB it has been LTH that have taken all the risk, suffered the opportunity cost and suffered continual dilution, only for our partners the Zubairs and johnny come lately shareholders take all the upside. Some reward for "loyalty" eh? For "loyalty" read "stupidity"....

Are you now a Solo holder too Drewky? Or just here to lend support to CP with his "ramp" ;0)

The process for approval passes from TPDC to PURA and then to the Minister for Energy and the Cabinet. The first two of these are "time-stamped" but the last of these the Govt / Ministerial approval is not; there is NO fixed timeline on this. Quite why it has taken so long for the Cabinet and Minister to sign this off is anyone's guess but they can take as long as they like.

It could equally be asked why it has taken the TPDC so long to sign off on the KN1 remediation scheme, relent on the spurious $6.93 million claim against AEX or grant the Mtwara License extension?

All political games designed to force AEX into the arms of the Zubairs I suspect. Some have suggested that similarly the Development License will not be approved until after APT drill C1 and this may be true but would require the Farm-Out to happen first (another piece of leverage over AEX). I have long held that the Dev License approval will have to happen before the Farm-Out but this is based on a conversation with NR back in April and may well have been superceded long ago.

However I have been given no reason to change my view and it is for this reason that I have always believed that the putative November Farm-Out date was always a "moveable feast".....