Member Info for CrustyPete

And how do you think we will raise money with no license for Ruvuma, no cash, no income and no chance of any without TPDC KN1 sign off and no Farm-Out - too much risk methinks and, of course it would require the support of our cornerstone investor? And do you think they would give that support? They would stand to "inherit" Ruvuma by default or perhaps by design if AEX failed. And with an SP on it's knees (as it will be in another 6 months) would AEX be able to dilute to any meaningful extent, if at all?

I would agree Drewky about not if but when. The question is about "but with who?" If the TPDC hang it out any longer will AEX be able to hang on before running out of money all together? Not a serious question yet but they need to get a move on.

TB you say that KN1 and even the TPDC class I'm are totally unrelated to the Farm-Out and I totally agree with you that they should be. However if the TPDC had given us approval of the remediation an at any point in 2017 we would not now be in the dire cash strapped position we find ourselves in and the "sword of damocles" has been sharpened even further with the claim..... without these we might not now even be talking about a farm - out? Interesting tactics don't you think from our "friends" the TPDC? It is difficult to believe that this "strong relationship" we have supposedly got with them still exists (or ever did maybe?). But what was it that caused them to believe that little old AEX were not up to the game? KN1? NT2? Both?

No Drewky I am not talking about anything beyond the next three four months - if these "short term" developments do not take place everything that is due to happen afterwards is an irrelevance..... I am talking about Farm-Out, License, KN1 sign off, and TPDC claim (reference the no income, no license, no Farm-Out and no TPDC approvals quote) etc only.

Anyway as you say bed time - 5:30 leave for me tomorrow :-(

Yes I agree CP, I am not trying to make a big issue out of it. I am simply saying that a lot of future events are already in the price and that the longer we get delayed the less of that premium will remain - and that element of premium will always be related to the perceived risk of a failure or default (choose your own words). If that EGM circular goes beyond the 2nd week of November watch what happens to the sp then...!!

The fact that I was contemplating buying (if I had not been travelling and could move money around I would have done) is definitely a reflection of my own perception of that risk - But it isn't all about me! Others will have a totally different perception and, of course, risk appetite.

In my view Drewky none of them are entirely priced in as there is always an element of risk that they will not happen but a significant element of the License extension and the Farm-Out is already in the sp - quite what element has changed over recent weeks as the EGM date has increasingly gone further out. Two weeks ago that would have been maybe circa 1.5 - 1.75p now only 1p.

Put it this way Drewky without a Farm-Out and a License extension we are worth about 0.5p at best in my view! :0)

"they are currently what 9 days late on initial forecast" Actually CP the "initial forecast" was for an EGM in September and the second for the circular to go out in September. When the initial Farm out completion date of November (not the end of btw) was given (at the AGM) there was no mention even of the License extension being a pre-requisite.... But that aside I would agree no delay is a major surprise in Tanzania and hence nor would it be a surprise for that deadline to be missed entirely; how many times have we been let down the TPDC/ Govt in the past?

My point though is more that the current SP and MC is considerably above the sp that the current situation would justify and is a reflection of the relative "probability" of the future events taking place as indicated by the BoD. The continued delay in delivery and the missing of previous "targets" for EGM date and circular simply reduces that perceived probability and hence increases the perceived risk involved in that equation and therefore the sp and MC is likely to decline as a consequence; until that is it becomes a "certainty", the license is extended and the date is fixed....

It would be fair to say that I am am increasingly less certain about it as each week passes CP that is true.

Nonsense BG? I don't think so. That is the current state of play and until and unless anything changes that is as it will remain.

No Mtwara license without TPDC / Govt granting an extension
Without extension no Farm-Out. (And what will happen to 25 Development License with no Farm-Out?)
Currently no income and without TPDC sign off of the remediation programme no chance of any in the medium term.
Currently net receipts are equal to net liabilities and so without resolution of the outstanding TPDC claim no cash in the bank. No cash in the bank and no income from KN1, no future development.

I am not saying this won't change - simply that right now the SP is all about expectation of future events and nothing to do with the current situation. Until the BoD delivers on these long overdue milestones the sp is grossly overvalued - in contrast to cperkin's point that the MC was ridiculously low. I disagree, the current MC already prices in a lot of future developments none of which can be guaranteed. This was the point I was making BG and anyone with half a brain or without an axe to grind would have easily recognised it..... Likely, yes but not guaranteed. Hence further delay is reflected in the sp as the likelihood and timing of those future developments becomes increasingly questionable.

Well random except that for the first time the BoD have belatedly admitted that they have no control over the date of the EGM because it is totally dependent on the approval of the License extension for completion. As many of us here have been suggesting since the very first announcement of the Farm-Out back in April incidentally.

Indeed I am still not convinced that the Farm-Out is not dependent on the 25 Development License approval, too.... But that the BoD have chosen not to tell us that bit either.

"Till the Minister signs the licence nothing moves I suppose." - Except the share price - downwards! ;0)

"£57 million Mcap and a $40 million Cash & Carry incoming @daft "

Or to look at it from the other end of the telescope CP "no license, no income, no cash, no farm-out and no TPDC approvals - and only AEX lip service"

Looking at it from that perspective even 1.475 p looks expensive. And the longer we wait the more nervous shareholders will become. "Will this ever happen?" they will be asking? Does anyone believe the BoD anymore? I am not sure they do - apart from the "fan club" of course....

This is EXACTLY why I have been on HOLD since the AGM - we all know that AEX will make us all wait above and beyond what is reasonable and we have seen many times before what happens when that occurs.

That said I did not expect the sp to sink to this level - and yet still the "wait" goes on. I may even buy some if the sp stays down here for a day or two.

Typical Aminex, typical Tanzania :0(

Another list of questions? We may as well send the same one as last time, bugger all has changed since the AGM and all of those questions remain unanswered....

Sorry, that last comment regarding a HOLD applied to OKOG of course not to Solo.... ;-)

Though until Solo have raised the money there will be some downward pressure on Solo sp in my opinion due to uncertainty of the 25% (akin to Bounty)

Well two points to make firstly to Steve; why sell now? Well to sell the entire holding or a large proportion of it will take a month of Sunday's so they cannot wait until the money is needed before offloading, the market would not take it.

Secondly to wonderer; because of the above, notification or no notification to sell £4 million worth will ensure that the sp doesn't go anywhere for the foreseeable future. If they need to sell this down between now and C1 spud I cannot see the price going far during that period..... I will be waiting until that sell order is fulfilled before buying any more, hence "HOLD"

I hope your collective optimism about news this week is justified.... I won't be holding my breath. Anyone that has been an Aminex shareholder should now recognise that we will only get the news only at the 11 minute of the 11th hour......

So if we still expect to get the Farm-out completed by the 30th November we will have the EGM on the 29th!! And that means a circular at about Friday 16th.

I would like to see the KN1 remediation programme kicked off before that but as Drewky has said recently and I have felt for well over 12 months we may only get sign off on any one of the outstanding TPDC / Govt approved events when the whole package is delivered..... I would have hoped that KN1 would be outside that "package" but if the resolution of TPDC claim is a necessary trigger we could still be waiting a few weeks yet.

Now that is about the most interesting thing I have read today - where oh where are you indulging in that CP?!

I want some :0)

Mine too and mine is a lot cheaper being on the Cote D'Emeraude..... :0)

Govt approval for the License Extensions and (maybe) the 25 Development License approval I would suggest GL. Certainly the first.

TPDC have already agreed the extension but it now needs Govt approval (we are told).

I do not think that the outstanding TPDC claim is holding this up (the hold up is above TPDC level) but it may well be holding up the sign off of the KN1 remediation programme methinks.

But, sorry no Drewky don't bother to respond I really do have better things to do than waste my time on discussing your paranoia...