Member Info for CrustyPete

"Perfect time " for me to start, Tanzania, why so? Why do you not kick off the process with your list of misgivings?

Besides which Tanzania why is it necessary when Drewky does it so well?

But, since you mention it I did so about a week ago Tanzania; you must have missed it...... or is it simply a question of selective memory?

An excerpt

"Yes P0werplay I do think that there is a good chance of the sp rising over the next 18 months stimulated by various catalysts;.......... That is why I am still an Aminex shareholder.

"When AEX were drilling NT2 we reached a Market Cap of circa £270 million albeit briefly - I see no reason to think that when we eventually "spud" C1 there may not be a similar reaction"

I could go on but I will wait now for your "equal and opposite" contribution.

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction......

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction......

Why on earth would AEX missing an suggested target date be a surprise Drewky? It would be a bigger surprise if the EGM were to happen in September....

Which is why most people that have been shareholders here for any length of time look at many of the forecasts for such thoings as the EGM being in September, KN1 remediation completed by Christmas and a C1 spud date in Q4 2018 with some degree of caution.

And we all know what happens to the AEX sp when forecast dates are missed.

And you may have missed it Tanzania but my retort to Drewky was in response to his assertion that the Farm-Out was BH's "finest hour".... Nothing to do with his list.

I suppose you will be telling me next that is a "fact" that ought to go on Drewky's list too LOL :0)

Anyway best he publishes it more often- the sp doesn't seem to have read it yet.

I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with Drewky's list and have told him so, here and elsewhere. I have also told him, here and elsewhere that his opinion that my views are unbalanced because "they are clouded by anger" is totally wrong and unjustified but he continues to make that assertion.

So Tanzania "downright rude"? I wasn't the first to resort to personal slights. So better not to be so precious eh?

Anyway I too have to get on, so goodbye all.

But my opinions aren't remotely justifiable because they are "clouded by anger" Drewky. Whereas yours are totally reasonable? You pompous arse....

So it is OK for you to spout off totally unsupportable opinions like the Farm-Out will be BH's "finest hour" but not okay for me to point out why I choose to disagree?

And for the umpteenth time Drewky my opinions are no more "clouded by anger" than yours are based on sycophantic self-interest. So for someone so quick to accuse others of personal gibes I suggest you keep such comments to yourself.... Okay?

No Drewky and you cannot see mine - or choose not to admit it, anyway.

That is a specios argument GL as you well know. That %age rise would have been even hoigher with a better deal. Moreover if it multibags any time in the near future it will be because of the hot money arriving on the C1 spud - which it would have done in any event; but now that we have only 25% will it spike as much as with 75%? Oh but "without the Farm-Out we may never had had a C1 spud" I hear you cry.... well yes that may be true. Well done management :-)

So good a deal Drewky that the sp fell to below 2p - that is how good the deal was.

Yes the deal will go through but not because it is a good one Drewky but because it is the ONLY one...... And don't give me that BS about it being a good deal. You would be the first to admit that disposing of a 50% interest for only $40 million was a mere fraction of what you yourself and 99% of other commentators were expecting. And the $40 million figure is the reason that the sp fell and any other belief is totally ridiculous.

Was what we got "realistic", was it the only deal on the table, yes maybe but $40 million for 50% interest was the reason the sp went down - it "valued" the company at somewhere near where it is now.

What it may be worth in 2020 is a different thing but that is a long way away and the post AGM sp was never going to be based on what the "value" might be in two year's time......

"Finest hour"? Really? "Damned with feint praise" then.... If that was his finest hour then it doesn't say much for the previous twenty-something years....

And don't be fooled Drewky the reason that the sp fell after the announcement had very little to do with "traders" and mostly because it was a lousy deal that hugely undervalued the Ntorya assets..... It just took the market all of two - three hours to work it out. TipTop and I had it worked out within minutes. That is why within days he became an EX-shareholder having been "the" arch supporter of Aminex for many years.

Oh and TB I should have made clear I do not believe that just because the EGM date is not yet set in stone it is hampering progress on the deal completion in the background; as we all know the Farm-Out is a "done deal" from a shareholder perspective. Since when did Turkeys vote for Christmas?

I would argue that we should not be here and the "deal" was derisory but there is no "Plan B". Farm-Out or wither on the vine.....

You need to remember TB that the half year accounts are an historic record of a specific six months period; they cannot be influenced retrospectively. I don't think there is too much to worry about, notwithstanding that we cannot really hold an EGM without those half year figures being available.

I will be interested to see those half year figures for reasons previously indicated but I am sure that, as soon as they have been completed and signed off, we will get the EGM date. We have often waited until mid/ late September for these figures and, particularly with the outstanding TPDC "royalty" claim, I am not at all surprised that, this year, they will be completed later, rather than sooner.

Edgar, what makes you think that the Govt need any "hurrying up"? They have a demand curve to meet and an election to win, so should be keen enough to accelerate developments without the Zubair's prompting. In my view it is these accelerated Gov't requirements that have conspired to force this Farm-Out; Aminex could not be relied upon to meet these development, drilling and production targets.

It appears to me that the Gov't are likely to be holding Aminex's (and maybe the Zubair's) feet to the fire by withholding the approval of the various deliverables to keep them "focused" on completion of the Farm-Out.

I don't doubt that they will eventually come but in time for completion on December? It is a fair assumption that without doing the valve work now (it doesn't need approval) we wouldn't complete by Christmas.

Anyway Drewky surely it would have been a bit daft getting compressors sent to Tanzania before getting TPDC approval to use them....?

Anyway must go, so goodnight!

I wouldn't argue with that, though not too sure of the relevance of the Solo involvement? I would imagine any conversation they happen to be involved in with the eventual "operators" is highly unlikely to involve AEX.

Anyway goodnight all.

I suspect that if they are still focused on getting the drill in the ground before Christmas they will need to get that contract in place very soon - unless of course it is already "in the bag" and the contract "negotiations" are just window dressing?

Yes Drewky we are capable of fixing a faulty valve ourselves without the TPDC signing it off; the material aspects of KN1 remediation that might result in us returning to earning income will require TPDC approval and that as likely as not will also require that farm-out ratification.

And what constitutes ratification? I hope that shareholder approval might be sufficient but it is just as likely to require contact completion, originally forecast for November....?

Yes P0werplay I do think that there is a good chance of the sp rising over the next 18 months stimulated by various catalysts; assuming that all of those things listed as "facts" on Drewky's list, or those selective "quotes" that he chooses to include actually materialise...... That is why I am still an Aminex shareholder.

What I also think is that if any of the suggested timescales slip it will have an adverse (though temporary) impact on the short term sp and we already seem to be at risk of missing the September EGM target.

When AEX were drilling NT2 we reached a Market Cap of circa £270 million albeit briefly - I see no reason to think that when we eventually "spud" C1 there may not be a similar reaction - though with far less skin in the game and no longer the "Operator" I think it might be a stretch (even with the prospects of Oil). The question is when will that be? That day is getting closer but only slowly and any delay in concluding the farm-out will surely push that day back beyond the current target. Potentially similar for other operational targets including KN1 remediation and others.

And that is why I only have AEX as a "HOLD".

Moreover P0werplay just because the anticipated income from Ntorya could be $632 million ( if that is the figure) does not in itself indicate what the MC of AEX might be as we do not know when we will start to earn it nor over what period; for example it has been suggested that it will be $12 million during 2020..... (actually I believe it will be more than this but that is only my opinion)