Member Info for CrustyPete

I could be flavoured Oil TB, rose or lemon flavoured Olive Oil....?

Oh and Drewky they are targeting GAS in the lower Triassic and Jurassic layers too..... Oil is the icing on the cake.

I would suggest that they were targeting liquids at NT2 Drewky, they had good Condensate numbers from NT1, however having drilled and analysed the core samples they would have determined that the "liquids" in question were not what they were after and hence they would not choose to perforate. The consequence of perforating would be that they would have water coming up the bore with the gas that would be very expensive (maybe uneconomic) to separate - so they would operate similarly with C1 I would suggest. And yes, Drewky both gas and condensate (or Oil) would some up the same bore and be separated at the surface.

"but to get to lower levels do you not have to drill deeper? "

Not necessarily is the answer. Use NT2 as an example. In NT2 they drilled far deeper than they perforated as, whilst they thought the lower levels might contain liquids, those liquids were almost certainly water and therefore chose not to risk perforation at these lower levels.

It may also be that they were targeting a lower level that, after drilling, they established was not a viable reservoir.

So it just goes to prove that this ridiculous tit for tat nonsense that the BB has suffered over recent months has resulted in there being absolutely zero objectivity or balance left on this BB; certain posters are more concerned with the "mine is bigger than yours" bull**** than actually discussing Aminex in any sensible terms. People are more concerned with scoring points with against the "opposition" than in looking with any objectivity at the reality....

If you actually looked at this RNS impartially you would see that it is NOT 100% positive and actually suggests that completion of the remediation work programme may now be later than was originally indicated. At the AGM we were told that the BoD was looking to get KN1 up and running and providing an income before the end of the year. As a result of this RNS that now looks to me less likely and still does NOT have TPDC sign off which, as I was saying only yesterday, is a key milestone.

Yes, it is positive that the BoD are seemingly focused on informing the shareholders with developments and ANY operational activity has to be a positive development.

However " The Company initially plans to repair a faulty valve during the current quarter " - This is the first we have heard of a "faulty valve" (probably due to inactivity) and will require additional work. Therefore delaying the remediation on the well itself work until the fourth quarter - which even then STILL needs approval. Assuming the TPDC do sign off on the work programme and we do begin perforation work in Q4 we already know from previous conversations that the remediation work will take 3/4 months before it results in a return to "full" production (7-8 MMscf/d) assuming it is successful......

The good news for me in this is that after the "valve" is repaired we may get to finally send some gas to the GPP and, as long as wee have sorted out the TPDC royalty issue we may actually get paid for it!

The statements regarding 3D seismics for Kiliwani and Nyuni are positive but of course nothing new and still beg questions of the funding as we have been told that 200 sq km of onshore 3d Seismics for Ntorya is estimated to cost $10 million and the proposed seismics for KN and Nyuni is over a larger area and is offshore. So unless we are to raise more money (dilution?) I would be interested to know when they are scheduling this?

So, whilst I am very happy to be updated on the situation with KN1, unlike some, I am NOT surprised that the SP hasn't immediately shot up on the back of it and anyone else who read the RNS without "rose tinted spectacles" would probably understand why....

A bit like Anusol...?! ;0)

"really upset"?! "surely they wouldn't want to let us down on this" Bloody hell Drewky when oh when did the BoD ever give a tinkers cuss about what the PI's think? Just think back to the July 11th AGM? That was two months late and with no explanation until the day itself....

"why upset people in the process" - because they know damn well that the PI's will bend over and take it up the arse yet again and not even bat an eyelid; that they can get away with whatever they want. They will always have a procession of apologists and sycophants that will argue til they are blue in the face that the BoD are doing everything possible on behalf of PI's and shareholders and have always managed to deliver optimal shareholder value.

LOL....

You are right Drewky we were not the only entity affected but that does not mean that it wasn't a deliberate act on their part; TPDC had issues with ORCA and the farm-out that they were involved in (and still are) and dragging AEX into a similar scenario may just have been an opportunistic tactic and to single out AEX would have been too "transparent" methinks. A ploy to drag BOTH parties into line and conform to the TPDC's way of thinking perhaps.....?

But your logic does have some weight ;0)

I am sure we have enough to remediate KN1 and maybe KNS but only if we farm-out the drilling of KNS and that would be complicated with only 57% and the resultant dilution of existing partners. The better news is that at least we do have a GSA for Kiliwani..... However the cash is only half the story we still need the TPDC complicity to move forward and that is just as much in doubt based on recent performance.

I wouldn't be surprised either Drewky and even less surprised to see the half year figures; that said I would equally not be surprised to have to wait for another two or three weeks...... That in my view would not be good news and for a multitude of reasons,

So Leafless you would think, wouldn't you, that if the same is true of Aminex's outstanding TPDC "claim" and that it has been resolved it would be a "material" development worthy of an announcement? (Unlike that last RNS that had nothing material to say whatsoever.)

Moreover Leafless the figure for outstanding invoices ($6-7 million) is as of December 2017 and since then we will have received no income and yet had a considerable bill for salaries, CPR and IO Commercial study; I cannot see how we will have any significant cash for Kilwani or even less for Nyuni development (93% ownership).

However I will reserve "judgement" on that and await the half year figures.

The biggest "if" and "maybe" is that "fantastic" relationship with the TPDC? That relationship which has seen the TPDC block or delay every development and proposal that we have proposed for circa 18 months and who have come up with a spurious claim for $5.97 million simply to compromise our financial position....? Yes, supposition I know but not exactly the actions of a trusted partner eh?

That is not quite the case Tanzania; many of the believers (no names necessary) were telling us that they would never fall to these levels in the first place... but no matter. And moreover, as you yourself have stated "one swallow does not make a summer"....

I do not think there is much downside from here (as I too have previously stated) particularly once the EGM is out of the way - but if we keep waiting for that EGM date there might yet be another slip. Delays have always hit our sp hard as the BoD have the reputation of crying "wolf" too often. A trait that JB has done much to reverse I will happily volunteer.

Oh and one other thing, we need that "sword of Damacles" removing from above our head. It will give us some chance of receiving income on our outstanding invoices and perhaps so someway to restore confidence in the belief that we actually still do have a working relationship" with the TPDC; which at the moment looks decidedly questionable..... Because without that, even if we do have cash, what is the point if the TPDC will not sign off on KN1 remediation or Kiliwani South or Nyuni drills. Despite what the BoD may claim, everything that we have experienced in the last 12-15 months suggests that the TPDC have little to no confidence in AEX ability - certainly not to develope Ntorya. I hope that doesn't extend to other licenses.

There is a lot that needs to be done in my view to restore confidence in the BoD and principle amongst those is to see evidence of similar confidence from the TPDC and the proof of that pudding is in the signing off of Kiliwani remediation work plan.....

My position is unchanged; I remain a "Hold" and will do so until we have seen the cash position confirmed with the Half Year figures and until we get the green light to begin some operational activity, which can only happen with the EGM Farm-Out approval.

We still need EGM date, License extensions, Development License approval, sign off for KN1 remediation and TPDC farm-out approval; I am in no way suggesting that these things will not happen but will they follow September shareholder approval or the the subsequent and later November Farm-out completion? I cannot claim to know but I am in no hurry to be buying yet. Once we have a C1 spud date there might be good reason.

Even then and, subject to the Half year figures, where are we going to get the cash for Kiliwani South and or Nyuni development? Or do we have to wait until the EPS in Q1 2020 provides us with the cash flow to do this? If not that, where are we getting the funding?

That said I am very happy to see some blue today, it comes as a pleasant change :0)

It depends upon who you mean by "institutions" Tanzania? If you mean Investment Managers it is a bit of a "chicken and egg" scenario I am afraid. Very very few IM's are even able to invest in "micro cap" Companies like Aminex and the value of funds invested in micro caps and then again in O&G micro caps is tiny. Once the MC approaches 250 million they then become "small caps" and the size of the potential market increases significantly.....

Actually you may be right matherdj; maybe not supplied by Zubair's but "sourced" by them...... but I am confident that it is a done deal and we are simply awaiting farm-out completion before it is announced. The RNS is just window dressing, inferring that the BoD still have work to do when, subject to the formality of the farm-out, it is be the Zubs that are pulling all the strings and making the decisions; it is out of the BoD's hands.

Anyway, must dash, I shouldn't be here! ;0)

I will have a bet with you GL that the "winner" has already been determined and is a member of the Zubair Group..... JB has already suggested (or at least inferred) that the Rig could be brought in and out of Tanzania as required; to drill one or multiple wells to suit...... The RNS is simply a bit of "smoke and mirrors" in my opinion.

Yes MAX better than nothing I would admit but I would be hoping for bit more than an occasional tweet for our $2 million a year that we are paying them and, let's face it, they haven't got much else to be getting on with right now...... ;0)

An EGM date excepted of course. :0)

I would be even happier if you were to actually show some evidence of that "balance" you claim to exhibit..... but I guess that would be too much to ask? ;0)

I am very happy for you :0)