Member Info for CrustyPete

I took no offence at all Drewky, it seemed to me that it was you that took offence; suggesting that my "foolish PI" comments were specifically aimed at you. As I said they were not.....

Reasonable questions? If you say so Drewky, actually I don't think they address my point at all

"Are they not doing what everyman jack would do in those circumstances?" Even IF that is true, which I do not believe, is that meant to be a justification? Does that mean it is okay then? That we should not question it?

Are they any worse than the vultures on here trying to force the price down? Absolutely irrelevant Drewky the "vultures on here" are not employed to represent the interests of shareholders!! FFS.

Anyway I have better things to do than help perpetuate this bilge. bye bye.

The principal positives for me are the fact that, even at the low ball rates that AEX farmed out to the Zubairs, Solo's 25% is worth at least $20 million and post C1 drill potentially considerably more. That is ignoring my belief that AEX should have got a lot more. Furthermore after the farm-out has been conclude there is no doubt, in my mind, that the development will proceed as it is beyond doubt that the Zubairs are more than capable of both funding and developing the assets. Consequently there should be no reason to suspect that come Q1 2020 both AEX and Solo (if they can hang on to their 25%) will be earning the equivalent of $12 million p/a and maybe a lot more if either C1 comes in with a good flow rate or of the Zubairs decide to drill more than just one well before EPS...

The risk is in whether Solo will be able to find the money to uphold their 25% funding obligation which will be a minimum of $15 million over the next 18 months and maybe a lot more if the Zubairs decide to drill one, two or more wells over and above C1. As we have said below this may impact the size of their eventual holding come Q1 2020.

I addition there is the possibility that with HH results to come, H1 IPO and drill and the C1 drill (and maybe more) there might well be a few smaller (and short lived) spikes between now and then which should give opportunities for the canny to get in and out more than once....

Yes, in part I agree CP, though as you rightly point out the GE independent study is one developed for Aminex that was submitted as part of the Development Plan application. My view is that part of the reason for the Farm-Out is that the TPDC and Zubairs both wish to accelerate that proposed development. The Aminex plan assumed only one more drill ahead of EPS because that as all that AEX could fund and after which it would be "self-funding". With Zubairs as Operator they can afford to drill more than one well ahead of EPS and therefore bring forward the forecast flow rates.....

I cannot see that happening Phillo as any forward development plan will be agreed between the Operator and the TPDC - in theory Solo need not even be consulted...... For a long time NR was insistent that AEX ran 3D seismic over Ntorya in advance of NT2 (and NT3) but it never happened. He may well have had a point as it now seems that post CPR they are moving the NT3 (C1) drill pad a short distance from the one already built.

Yes CP correct I should have said up to 25% - They would concede "equity" in proportion to their failure to fund their participation; however how that is calculated seems somewhat subjective and not fixed. As for production revenues? There is, of course, never any guarantee that there will be any. Moreover imagine a scenario where Aminex were still the operator; if Solo were unable to fund Solo's 25% of costs, the development would likely not ever happen as Aminex would not be able to cover the shortfall - consequently the Operator would demand to take control of the 25% (or the unfunded proportion) so that they could give it to someone, or sell it to someone, that would be able to come up with the money.....

Phillo, under the terms of the partnership agreement if Solo cannot stump up their pro rata obligation to fund ongoing Ruvuma development they will be forced to concede their 25% to the operator. Once upon a time, as both a Solo and Aminex shareholder, that was good news in either case - unfortunately no longer true as the only beneficiary would be the Zubairs.....

The "foolishness' Drewky is not in recognising it but, having recognised it, doing and saying absolutely nothing about it.... Past performance suggests that most will say, and do, nothing but simply condone the BoD's actions and pat them on the back for their treatment of the company and shareholders. Will that be you? I certainly didn't say so Drewky. But you seem to think that everyone posting on this BB is only interested in making a personal attack on you.

No Drewky this is an Aminex BB not a Drewky BB; though I will admit that it might be difficult for anyone new coming to this BB to recognise that.

Time to move on methinks.

GL JB has since hiked his salary by 50% earlier in 2017 and then again by a smaller amount since; on what basis? Certainly not upon subsequent operational success nor the return offered to shareholders; no simply on the basis of comparison to similar companies... well how many of those had seen a 75% fall in sp over that period?

Yes, I agree somewhat tongue in cheek but even so - were his salary based on any sort of performance related pay he would be struggling to justify either of his recent rises. Just the reason I suggest that those salaries were hiked up before they introduced any form of performance related pay scheme. Just the reason that in the last set of full year accounts the BoD had to inform the shareholders that:

The Directors consider that Aminex PLC has complied throughout the year with the provisions of the Code and the Irish Annex except for the following matters:

A performance evaluation of the Board, its Committees and its Directors was not undertaken during the year.

As noted in the Directors’ Remuneration Report, the Board intends to put in place a scheme during 2018 to enable part of the Executive Directors’ remuneration to be performance related.

Well no **** sherlock - now we know exactly why don't we? ZERO performance on any one single level for the last 18 months....

They are taking us all for fools and in reality they are 100% right; they know they can get away with it because the majority of PI's are exactly that

I don't agree TB those half year results will need some very creative accountancy to explain the lack of income and the treatment of the TPDC claim. And until these have been signed off by our accountants they will not be able to use the figures in any EGM presentation. Now if they choose to hold the EGM without the half year results it will create huge problems regarding all and By questions relating to ongoing solvency, funding, kiliwani and nyuni develpment and salaries....

EGM doh!!

I will say it once more.... I am sure that they will be waiting for the half year figures to be produced before announcing the AGM. There is much that needs to be clarified, not least the state of the cash flow with the outstanding TPDC "royalty" claim....

I have no argument with your last sentence Sambo; I simply do not buy this idea that the "farm-out" is so much better a deal than a "sale" which is the falsehood that the BoD were peddling at the AGM.....

The reality is that we got $40 million for 50% and even that $40 million isn't worth $40 million as we do not get it in our hand, do not get it immediately and have no control of what we spend it on.

So Sambo, please explain why a sale of 50% of Ruvuma for $40 million would have been any different? We would still have had a 25% stake in the ongoing Ntorya project and the income from it, however we would now have $40 million in the "bank"; we would still have been able to fund our obligations for Ntorya development but would also have the ability to begin work on such things as Kilwani South or Nyuni.....?

The difference between the two in terms of NAV is zero in my view and certainly no different in terms of our ongoing participation of Ntorya / Ruvuma. If there is a difference it is that for a sale any purchaser would have had to pay the money up front (which ARA did not seem willing to do) and therefore we may well have got a lot less than the $40 million we have been offered on the "never never"....

Yep CP, and that's about right. The BoD have effectively marked our Ntorya assets to market through this farm-out; 50% is worth $40 million so the remaining 25% is worth $20 million = $60 million, which is worth only 48 million GBP. Kiliwani and Nyuni are so far from monetisation as to have minimal value, so if the MC is now 65 million GBP that still leaves a considerable premium over NAV. Unless C1 comes up trumps with Triassic and Jurassic play and/ or Oil, and until re remediate Kiliwani, develope Kiliwani or Nyuni and receive an income from EPS the NAV is unlikely to increase markedly. And so there is the risk that the sp will side even further in the intervening period.

For this reason I do NOT agree with Drewky that Aminex is currently worth far more than the current sp - it is questionable that it is even worth the current sp. It is only where it is due to the expectation of future events.

If so and the sp is anticipating future events, we all know what happen to the AEX sp in "dry" periods; we have had one of those for over 18 months now and there are unlikely to be any material developments in the coming weeks......

Changing subject what on earth is happening regarding our $5.97 million that the TPDC are claiming we owe them? Without resolving this issue they will not be paying us the $5.8 million they owe us for previous gas supply. Where oh where are we getting the money to pay our running costs....? CPR, IO Commercial study, salary bills...? We only had $500,000 cash as of the year end....

Those half year figures are very important and, I believe, need to be signed off before the EGM notification. Without KN1 remediation and resolution of the outstanding claim, could it be suggested that AEX is insolvent? It is a long time until EPS. Will ARA's $5 million cash fill the hole?

The more I think about it the more that $5.97 million is a key issue and it needs resolving asap...

UT trade CP that's all.... strange but consistent

At Kev4's request I am posting the words below as his thoughts on Webmoor's passing;

"Terribly sad to read Pete's post on LSE regarding the passing of LSE poster Webmoor (Peter Webb). He was very funny and very insightful, and a fierceful debater. He was so straightforward and bluntly honest that he was bewildered and often irritated by some of the dishonesty he read on bbs.

Webmoor was a thoughtful and decent man who was very kind to me when my brother (now deceased 6 months) was also afflicted with the world's greatest bastard - cancer.

I hope Webmoor rests in peace and, as he often joked, his bloody relatives get something out of Aminex!

Ar dheis Dé go raibh a h'anam (may his soul be on the right side of God)."

Thanks Kev and I am very sorry to hear about your brother's own passing; I do remember your exchanges with Webmoor and sincerely wish the outcome for both of them had been different.

I am sorry to say that I have a very painful and upsetting duty to perform today and one that I am finding it truly difficult to to do justice to....

Webmoor's (Peter Webb) wife Joyce contacted me a little while ago to tell me that our great friend and long term Aminex shareholder, very sadly, passed away yesterday. She also asked that I notify his friends on the Board.

I know that he had been really suffering of late and whilst, as Joyce said, "life will never be the same again" he is now at peace and no longer in pain.

I will very much miss him; for his sage like wisdom during our conversations on life, investing and Aminex, and for his combative, insightful comments on the BB.

I am sure others will feel similarly and hope you feel able to comment accordingly.

Any of you that have my email, please feel free to mail me with any comments and messages and I will happily pass them on.

That will be the reason TB, they cannot go to an EGM without Half Year results, there would be far too many open ended questions. I, for one, would rather have sight of those before the EGM, if only for clarity and transparency to inform the forward plan for Kiliwani and Nyuni. Without a known budget how can they make any plans for forward development. Also the transfer of Staff to ARA which probably hasn't yet been determined (TUPE or not TUPE? That is the question? Compensation....?). Lots of questions methinks.

Cash flow is paramount and will determine whether we have a budget for the next 18 months, whether we need further funding and dilution or whether it just means we do nothing between now and EPS?

Dunder I made no judgement about who it was that started it,just that the continuous "tit for tat", claim and counterclaim, "mine's bigger than yours" verbal tennis is just childish, pointless and tiresome.

So you didn't start it? Fantastic. You win..... now let's move on.

" So I take great exception to your comments". Continue to take exception if that's what you want, see if I care.... Life's too short and I'm too busy.

Bye all ;0)

"Pete I asked a simple question of C Perkin and dopey." - yes Dunder countless times, when it is obvious that no-one has the answer your question. So why oh why persist?! You have made your point....

As for the "you started it" nonsense, for goodness sake, it is straight out of the playground.

According to JB at the AGM the Zubairs approached AEX.... Whether that is actually the case or not we are unlikely to ever know but that is the "official" line and it won't change.