Member Info for CrustyPete

Tanzania I have never suggested that he wouldn't keep it on the list and it comes as no surprise. Moreover I have long now suggested that the farm-out would heavily de-risk AEX and give us downside protection (hence incidentally why I have not been suggesting that the sp would slide significantly). On the other side of that same coin I do think that we have accepted a low ball offer and by doing so have considerably reduced the upside for PI's and our skin in the longer term game has been dramatically reduced...... Will we recover? Yes I strongly believe so but my target is now a lot lower and, I am afraid to say I do not see that sp improving much between now and KN1 remediation or C1 spud which are both now still some time away. Now that we are no longer Operator of the Ruvuma assets such things as License extension and Development License will no longer have such a marked impact; not least as because once we farm-out such considerations are largely discounted.

In truth Tanzania I just want to get the farm-out sorted and see things progress - much of this debacle is now water under the bridge. I bought in here to see the monetisation of our Ruvuma assets and to witness the sell off of so large a proportion for what I believe is a derisory sum is extremely disappointing. So much potential and anticipation for long term shareholders unrealised. I am likely to keep a holding long term for Kilwani and Nyuni but as soon as I get a chance I will be reducing.

As I said before I did not buy AEX for limited downside - it isn't BP after all

Why thank you Drewky, I am happy to have helped out - after all I have absolutely no problem with the list; only your totally false assertion that " Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by management with regards to time schedules. " Which it manifestly is not.

Anyway goodnight all.

Sir Robert some very large and powerful companies or entities would be happy to invest $105 million for single figure returns. "Serious" returns only come with "serious" risk - unless someone has already largely de-risked the assets and you have the advantage of buying them at a "serious" discount.... ;0)

Well don't take it to heart Drewky it only goes to show that, just like you, even the all powerful Malcy can get things wrong - I think even you would acknowledge that the figure is $110 million; $40 million for 50% of Ruvuma and another $70 million to cover their 50% of development costs....

I am looking forward to that SP rising now that the soothsayer has spoken. I won't be holding my breath ;0)

I have explained it several times Drewky - to use some of your own words "APT have committed spending of $40million to Aminex. $3m up front a further $2m six months later and the balance paid by Full Carry up to 40MMscf/d at which point any remainder will be paid in cash from gas profits." They do not use the words "Free Carry" they call it Aminex Carry. And it means for the period that the money lasts they will not need to invest further money.

That said, free carry, means that an entity is given a "profit share " in a project without, necessarily, having had to invest in it....... For example a domestic govt may be given a free carry in a project without having to invest any capital in it (DRC being and example).

Aminex however have invested a lot in their "Aminex Carry" - 50% of their license.

So APT are paying up to $70 million for their 50% of the License and covering Aminex's obligation up to 35% in exchange for a 50% working interest in the Ruvuma PSA. It means that Aminex will not have to fund any more development capital up to that point.

So I suppose that we all ought to be thankful for small mercies; I see that you have decided to remove or re-word some of your list so that they now conform more closely to your assertion but even so how do the "quotes below" satisfy your assertion "Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by management with regards to time schedules."?

Question: Would anyone out there want to invest that sort of amount without being pretty damned sure of a good return?

Comment: Any sensible person knows that you don't commit to investing $110million unless you expect to get a serious return!!!

Multiple Targets - Gas as close to guaranteed as can get (It's extremely unlikely CH1 will be a duster". Sunday 5/8/18 23:43 TarryB) - Oil at the lower level

"now near impossible that we will do a placing". Sunday 5/8/18 23:43 TarryB - since when was TarryB on the BoD?

And are all of those JB quotes "official" ? Or just anecdotal?

Agreed BG but I suspect that all here would rather have been holding over C1 drill before a farm-in don't you?

So firstly Drewky the word is "gall" not "gaul" - a gaul is a native or inhabitant of ancient Gaul.

Secondly Drewky you are absolutely correct my statement "current Kiliwani GSA are highly unlikely to apply" is an opinion as inferred by the word "unlikely" the BIG difference is that I am not not have not claimed that is it anything else. Which is quite the opposite from your statement Drewky that "Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by the management with regards to time schedules." When it manifestly IS NOT!! And even when this is pointed out to you, you refuse to retract the statement and just repeat the same untrue statement.....

As regards the free carry, my int here is that for the last few days you have attempted to suggest that the "Aminex Carry" (as per the RNS) is FREE with the deliberate use of capitals and tried to infer that it is the Zubairs who are paying for the whole $105 million when that is a total and willful distortion of the facts.

So let's have a look at yet another of your so-called "facts". You glibly state that "but the fact is you are kicking up a stink purely because you don't like the deal" well Drewky that is not a "fact" that is your opinion and, for your information, it is not true. I have long given up on pursuing that blind alley the FACT is that I am "kicking up a stink" because somewhere along the line in your obsession and feud with the "shorters" or "derampers" you seem to have totally lost any sense of objectivity and have erred into the realms of blatant propoganda and disinformation.

Let me remind you "Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by the management with regards to time schedules."

I offered yu a few examples of where that was not the case but did you choose to retract the statement? No not once Drewky and it seems you still hold that the statement is true even when challenged.

My issue is not with Aminex it is with your erring into the realms of half truths and misinformation.

Drewky, as you say ".... I'll take on the challenge if needs be but I suspect your current behaviour is losing you an awful lot of respect you've have built up on this board over the years and you have certainly lost mine...."

Never a truer word spoken Drewky but you need to look in the mirror.

Just like you Drewky I won't back down either; you keep peddling your opinions and half truths as "facts" and official managerial pronouncements and I will keep pointing out the fact.

It's up to you.

I think you need to redo your maths FL ;0)

But even so 23% or 25% pales by comparison to the first Aminex "Zubair" Dilution the placing and open offer of 42% which was very well received by the market and then, of course, the recent 66% Ruvuma dilution which wasn't.

The issue for me though with this Solo announcement is that surely this is only the "first cut"; there surely has to be more and presumably via farm-out. Though I take CP's point they might be clearing the decks for a bank loan. Wouldn't it be ironic of little old Solo managed to fund their 25% of C1 drill with a loan when the AEX BoD had claimed it wasn't possible. Though again I would admit that with the Zubairs now the "Operator" a lending proposition might have a bit more credibility; at least they can be relied upon to deliver on the Development and take it to production.

As the partners are responsible for the Pipeline the terms of the current Kiliwani GSA are highly unlikely to apply to Ntorya.

So Drewky despite your statement being shown to be false you still state "Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by the management with regards to time schedules."

Which is now, just as it was previously, manifestly untrue.... so now you are knowingly peddling falsehoods.

But I suppose that is justifiable in your world?!

Oh and Aminex's there is no element of "free carry" in the Farm-Out Drewky - it cost us 50% of our Ruvuma license Drewky. Only in your head is that "free".

The original Farm-Out states:

"In exchange for a 50% working interest in the Ruvuma PSA, APT will become operator and will conduct the following minimum work programme:

.........

Establish an Early Production System to achieve accelerated first gas to a minimum gross rate of 40 MMcf/d (equivalent to approximately 6,700 bbls/d)

Pay Aminex $5 million cash in two tranches, $3 million payable on closing and the remaining $2 million 180 days later

Fully carry Aminex for its share of costs up to $35 million in respect of its remaining 25% interest (post-transaction) (the "Aminex Carry"), which implies a potential expenditure during the carry period of up to $105 million for the aggregate 75% working interest held by APT and Aminex....

"fully carry" Drewky not "Free carry"... note the words at the top of the quote - "IN EXCHANGE FOR A 50% WORKING INTEREST"

Have you got it now?

Yes trrime you are right ordinarily that would have been the expected outcome but on this occasion I think that the perception is generally positive as it goes some way to securing Solo's financial position and their underlying assets; moreover many people were extremely nervous about that so-called "death-spiral" loan facility. Though is that facility still open? If not where is the money coming for C1 and beyond? This raise won't cover that.....

I suspect all will become clear at today's AGM.

Good luck to all those going :0)

Dear oh dear Drewky no actually there are many statements that are not factually correct, many are just opinions and statements. e.g.

3 to 4 drill program for 2019 ?? I happen to think you might be right but it is not a fact - unless you can show me where the BoD have stated this?

APT have committed to spending a possible $110milion on the full field development of the Ruvuma project? Actually $105 million and $35 million is Aminex's potential contribution

"now near impossible that we will do a placing". Sunday 5/8/18 23:43 TarryBreeks ? Purely an opinion and not necessarily true - unless AEX does not want to spend any money until 2020.

Would anyone out there want to invest that sort of amount without being pretty damned sure of a good return? Not a fact nor a management statement and what is a "good return"? Purely subjective and totally meaningless

Any sensible person knows that you don't commit to investing $110million unless you expect to get a serious return!!! This is not a fact and has not been stated by the Management and "serious return" is meaningless.

So you need to change your statement at the bottom "Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by the management with regards to time schedules." Because it is not true.

Moreover Drewky many of these statements have a target date many weeks months and even years ahead and they are only targets - what are they going to do for the sp over the next few weeks?

I think you need a different strategy Drewky the one you are employing above doesn't seem to be working... :0(

"but I did concede and apologised at 20:17 last night to in the same conversation with MathersDJ for using the wrong word when I should have termed it "project" and not just Aminex."

But your following statement makes it cleat what you were intending to say Drewky.

"However it seems to me that any company investing $110million in what is effectively described by some as a crock of shyte must know something that these people don't."

NO-ONE here would suggest that Ruvuma is a "crock of shyte" (indeed I, personally, would not even suggest that Aminex is); hence it was self evidently your deliberate intention to suggest that APT are investing $110 million in Aminex, which as we all know is a total misrepresentation of the facts.

Have you ever heard the old maxim that "when in a hole it is better to stop digging"......?

Anyway enough is enough. I have no more to say on the matter.

GLA

"It's called a free carry because we haven't got to pay for it." We have paid for it you plonker with 50% of the bloody Ruvuma license. Are you really being deliberately obtuse or do you really not get it? Incredible.

For goodness sake, I give up. You will be telling us all next that APT are investing $110 million in Aminex....

Bring back Ron all is forgiven...... Goodnight.

For which we have conceded 50% of the bloody license Drewky - the $35 million carry is our payment....!! Are they providing the carry out of the goodness of their heart? Did I miss something or are we not conceding 50% of our Ruvuma license; for crying out loud Drewky are you totally blind or just acting dumb?!

The farm-out is for $40 million of which $35 million of the payment is in the form of carry - in lieu of cash....

Dipstick?! Look in the bloody mirror you twerp.

Well as you suggested TB with work over of NT1 & 2 they should manage 40 MMscf/d anyway but if not they will surely drill NT4 and if that doesn't come off then NT5. By which time there will be little if any of the $35 million "carry" left to pay back anyway so it won't be much of an issue.

"argument" what argument? I am just stating the facts, I am not trying to argue anything..... the Zubairs are not investing in Aminex and $35 million of the $105 million development capital is Aminex's own money. Nor am I attempting a distortion the facts to create a totally misleading impression.

Anyway off to watch the football now - back tomorrow :0)

CP actually the total spend by APT will be $110 million - $40 million paid to Aminex for 50% of Ruvuma and $70, that is, 50% of total $140 million development spend....

So yes I large investment, that I will not deny but number 1, that is NOT an investment in Aminex and number 2, $35 million of the $105 millon is being invested in development by Aminex and not APT.... so colour it up as you like but the facts remain.

Drewky and Tarry both of you keep using this figure of $110 million for APT's investment in the Ruvuma development but I think this figure is misleading. Actually they have spent $40 million on purchasing 50% controlling interest in the Ruvuma license from Aminex. $35 million of the development costs is being paid for by Aminex the only difference being that APT are effectively deferring the payment and ensuring that Aminex have to spend it on the Ruvuma project...

Had APT actually paid AEX the money and not funded Aminex's carry, AEX would now be able to spend it on anything they like. Even if they then chose to spend it in Ntorya it would have been their choice. That does not change the fact that is is Aminex's money.....

Or are you suggesting that actually APT are only paying AEX $5 million for 50% of the Ruvuma Concession....?

Drewky you state "As for you Pete, I hope you get in at the price your are thinking but please distance yourself from the burial crew and back off on your own current personal style of constant negativity. It doesn't suit you and will do your credibility no good."

Constant negativity? Really, from your perspective maybe, or maybe you have just chosen not to acknowledge that I have said, several times, that there is plenty of possible upside for AEX SP. I just dont happen to think it is in the short term. So, just to put you right yet again, I have no target price. I simply do not see any good reason to buy in now... to me it is not about price, it is about timing. I am not going to rake over old coals concerning the derisory sum that the BoD have recommended to shareholders, I do think we could have expected far more, that said longer term the Farm-Out will benefit shareholders. I simply choose to point out that in the short term there is nothing material on the horizon that is likely to boost the current SP. That is the reason that endlessly repeating your list of deliverables is having no resonance; people recognise that nothing on that list will be complete for months and even that list is contingent, for completion and timing, on the EGM.

Of course Drewky you would perceive that as my being negative; I see that as realistic and it is my honest opinion. I am sorry if that doesn't suit you but that is no reason to change it.....