Member Info for CrustyPete

In terms of operational delivery or SP SirRobert?

FL that was exactly what he was referring to; to do seismics at Nyuni in order to increase it's "value" so as to be able to get a higher figure when farming out; reducing the risk and increasing the chances of success for subsequent drills.... and yes, getting a better estimate of what they had under the ground. As it stands it has minimal, if any, value as so little has been done in the area. Also the fact that he intended "farming - out" the Nyuni drills with a third party for a share in the income not the license.... still dilution in any name.

That said this conversation took place in AGM 2016 and we both know that nothing that was said even one AGM ago can be trusted let alone two.... :0(

Now I must go. Sorry back on Monday.

Everything is possible TB but I think not - there are plenty of assets for the Zubairs still to strip yet in Kiliwani and particularly Nyuni (a similar scenario to Ruvuma - too big and complex for Aminex to fund the full development) - using shareholders money to de-risk of course. But no, I do expect KN1 to be back on stream before the end of the year and though it won't provide us with any meaningful development capital (hence the need for continued dilution and reliance on Zubairs funding) it should keep the BoD in salaries and ensure that there is a gravy train there to be milked for a few years yet. Why would the Zubairs want to pay them (they will have taken any of the good ones for APT Ntorya development) when they can get them to drive assets to APT at the AEX shareholders expense.

Sorry BG; "you cant suggest that Crusty, because it wasn't up for sale. not up for negotiations." Yes, you are right, of course, I was simply trying to point out that it is a trivial amount of money and that ARA could easily buy out Aminex if they wanted to, but that (in my opinion) they don't want to. They can acquire all of the assets they want for a pittance after they have been "de-risked" by AEX shareholders

Anyway , sorry BG and others I have a weekend to get on with; a family "do" to prepare for....

Bye for now.

Yes they have taken on most of it BG but only after AEX had previously drilled and paid for earlier seismics, drilled NT1 & 2 commissioned the CPR, overseen the "12 fold" upgrade in resources, paid for IO study and put in application. It is now very close to "monetisation" and largely de-risked. Many millions of $'s spent, many years effort and the political and drilling risk etc and we haven;t even got our costs back (I would warrant). There is and always still be a "drilling risk" but Aminex are not immune from it, they simply have their costs covered up to $35 million....

I am just concerned that we will go through that whole process yet again with Kilwani and Nyuni simply to be forced into selling it to ARA just as we are about to monetise that. Though, to be honest I don't think we will ever have the capability of developing Nyuni if, as has been proven, we are too small to be trusted with Ntorya. So will we ever get more than a "dime on the dollar" (JB's expresion not mine) on those assets? A "dime on the dollar" won't amount to very much if we could only get $40 million over, two years plus, for 50% of 750 million 2C resources.....

And to Robbie and those concerned at the possibility of ARA taking out Aminex I really think that you are misunderstanding the situation.

Let's face it they have just bought 50% of Ruvuma for $40 million - had they wanted the other 25% it would have cost them another $20 million. As BH said at the AGM it is peanuts for them. Why buy out Aminex when the Zubairs are far better off leaving the company and shareholders to raise all the capital for future development, taking the lion's share of the risk and then waiting until Aminex have no more capital and no chance of raising it before being forced to selling the crown jewels to ARA for a pittance.... That is a far, far better business model.

Yes ARA have some of that to bear as a 29.9% shareholder but that is surely a lot better than owning all 100% because then Zubairs would have ALL of the risk and the burden of raising ALL of the risk and development capital. In their alternative model we shareholders bear the risk, the funding and the opportunity cost and leave them with the majority of the upside.

This is exactly the point that I am trying and failing to get across to those that choose to blindly accept the situation we find ourselves in. I do accept (grudgingly) that we have no bloody choice with the deal on the table but that is not a reason to accept the same "manipulation" over Nyuni and Kiliwani....... IF we are to do that we may as well sell our Tanzanian assets now and move on; there is no point taking all the risk if we, the shareholders get none of the upside.

Morning Drewky "You won't give up Pete will you".... no Drewky I won't in just the same way that nor will you.

Yes vike did say no further dilution see below "No further dilution for small Oil & Gas companies with a major development on the horizon in nearly unheard of". And so to will it be for Amines! Unheard of that is! You supported vike's assertion concerning "no further dilution" but of course when I point out that there is inevitably has to be dilution for Nyuni and Kiliwani all of a sudden "no further dilution" means just for Ruvuma.....

You just don't get it do you? That is exactly the point - trying to ensure that we get fair value for those assets not the derisory sum that we have been forced to accept by the mismanagement of our current BoD. (Whose performance with NT2 drill and KN1 has been shambolic...)

So you state " All the things happening right now are either what the BoD told us, or what you me and others on this bb had worked out for ourselves" Total nonsense Drewky.... So are you seriously suggesting that you predicted that AEX would be farming out 50% of Ntorya for $40 million paid out over a minimum of two years?! (I seem to remember that your estimate would have been over $200 million) And that you are happy about it? Come on pull the other one... The farm-out of Ruvuma was always, at worst, expected to fund the development of subsequent projects and further non Tanzanian acquisitions. This deal leaves us with few crumbs on the table and means further dependence on our "related party". Which is exactly where they want us to be.

Oh "stop moaning" I hear you bleat "let's move forward" - well Drewky your blindly supportive attitude will simply ensure that the BoD will screw you all over again with Nyuni and Kiliwani. I will remind you of that when it happens, because your that is what your "let's let sleeping dogs lie" attitude will result in.

You will be telling me next that you now think that the BoD's salary rises are justified by their fantastic performance....?

And kilowatt too Drew. So that makes a total lie and pretence about no forward dilution which is where thus dialogue started. So you now freely admit that "no future dilution' wad total ********** :0) good. This issue is more about being driven into the arms of our related party at a derisory sum that gives them all the upside. But then if course even that you would end uup accepting that again if course. Oh sorry Bod let me bend over while you shaft me again lol. Anyway it us my son's graduation and I have better things to do .... Back to Ostrich mode Drew :)

$6th lion was as of the end of 2017 since when there has been little by wah of income and quite a lot of expenditure. ..

I haven't got time for this now but Drew even if we had $14 million (unlikely ) ti think that is going to be sufficient for wages,overheads, seismic and drilling of Kiki wan South and By uni is just bonkers.... KN1 might help but won't be sufficient. There will be another dilution or it will require AEX to do next to nothing between now and EPS. ... Which would you rather?

Anyway must sign off now - am attending my son's Graduation on Southampton for the rest of the day. GLA

For you irish I would be happy to accept that on one condition; that as shareholders we agree to do our concerted utmost to avoid the same fate in the future.... Even as Drewky has admitted (with or without ARA vote is immaterial in my view) we are at risk of losing all of the upside on Kiliwani a s Nyuni to APT or another Zuma or entity unless we get appropriate explanations and development plans for our remain Tanzania assets. Otherwise we will find ourselves massively "diluting" to the Zubairs all over again for yet another pittance.

As always Drewky you only choose to include those pieces of the "reality" that suit your own onel eyed view of the current situation..... and , in part I chose to point out those aspects that you conveniently expectt us to all to ignore, overlook and sweep under the carpet. ... I recognised that we needed funding - farm out was one option if you actually bothered to report what I actually said correctly I stated that far - out was the only likely outcome but that I would have preferred a loan or placing. But why let the truth spoil a good fantasy eh? Had vike stated " furthe"r dilution he may not have got he same response. Moreover even that statement simply glosses over the stark reality that we received a pittance, are cash less and without the means to develop our remain assets. How are we going to do that without further dilution Drewky? Please explain that reality.... But of course - like yours this is only my opinion. To claim that yours is the only "reality" is pure nonsense. ...

And that is exactly why they had to sell irish - that is why the TPDC gave them no choice . They couldn't allolw AEX to just "stumble along". ... Ntorya is far too important to leave in the hands of such as AEX. And that is why we hot a pittance which we will receive spread out over years....

The difference being irish that you did not have to sell - you had choice....

And no doubt that "transformational" Farm - Out GL. ..? Me too.

I am sure that our "related" institution is wetting itself with delight..... Particularly if they now have the vote; as our illustrious leader has suggested

Prosac of course !!

You keep taking the Prosaic Drewky the rest of us operate in "reality" ;0)