RE: 5 months to 2019.30 Jul 2018 12:04
So SirRobert much of what we may be able to do over that period will very much be influenced by how much cash we have in the bank. We were told that as at the end of 2017 we had circa $6 million in cash and net receivables but I fully expect that to have been eroded significantly since then due to the costs of such things as the CPR and IO Commercial study which almost certainly were still outstanding as at the ear end (CPR had not then even been completed). So any development for Nyuni and Kiliwani will require there to be sufficient cash in the bank to complete and hence I remain sceptical that anything significant could happen there until at least after we receive the first $3 million payment for the farm-out. Even then, could we begin 3D seismics over the nearshore area to pinpoint Kiliwani South or Nyuni drill....? I am doubtful not at least until such time as we have a meaningful income from KN1 back on stream and have built up a "reserve". We are told that to complete 200 sq km of 3D seismics over onshore Ntorya will cost $10 million and, I understand, it costs a lot more per sq km to run seismic "offshore" than onshore.
So that brings me to KN1 which I firmly believe will be up and producing before year's end but I am not quite sure of exactly when. If the work programme begins after the EGM we could reasonable expect remediation to be complete before the end of November and possibly sooner dependent on which course of action proves successful - and it goes without saying that NONE are guaranteed.
I do expect to see the Nyuni License extension concluded during that 5 month timeframe and maybe amalgamated with Kiliwani License.
After the EGM we will of course have no operational control over Ntorya so nothing is within Aminex's gift. I fully expect to see the License Extensions and Development license concluded, Drill tender announcement, a Spud date for C1 and the transfer of AEX staff to APT. We may also see 3D seismics begun in Ntorya, drilling commence on C1 and work begun on pipeline; though, in order, each of these are less likely than the previous in my view and are at best 50:50.
The one other thing I will be looking out for is the long awaited share "consolidation" as this would surely be a signal and precursor of another dilution to provide funds for Kilwani or Nyuni developments or perhaps that "non Tanzanian" acquisition that JB has seemingly been "flagging" for some while now.
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